Friday, April 29, 2005



When I get it wrong I will be the first to admit it and yesterday showing only shorts and no longs should have been my hint today was going to be an up day. Instead I stuck with my guns and showed shorts. I went short even one of them, getting hit quite nicely in QSII. That is twice it has done that to me, btw. But what other two did I mention that could have lost you big money: MCRS NTGR. Hey, when I get it wrong I get it wrong. Luckily both were not in the best shorting positions so I skipped them. But bottom line is how many people admit they were wrong. Not too many that are not for real. But I am for real and for that I apologize.

Anyway, back to the market. Short-term SP500 and DJ-30 still holding the recent lows and had a nice (not great) day today on a pickup in trading. That is another accumulation day and since it was up 1-2% it counts as the confirmation day of this current short-term rally. SP600 still looks weak overall after making new lows yesterday and today does not get me too excited about its current condition. The Nasdaq on the other hand is a different animal. I am seeing leadership in this index and can tell by all the charts starting to show up in my scan in uptrends that are technology and internet related that the nasdaq is taking leadership. It does not mean it is going a lot higher but for now seems stronger than other indexes. Today it had a great intraday reversal on higher volume and I must admit the reversal looked good. However, it reset its current rally yesterday into a failed rally and today would be day one of its new current attempted rally. Crazy market? You bet.

Longs that look great for a swing trade: CYH DIOD RVI PYX MCRS HLTH ARRS ABB CHL SIVB

I have mentioned SIVB ABB DIOD RVI HLTH before.

So even though today was one of my worst days in a year, I am still up big for the year and handily beating the averages. That is all I can ask for. My positive attitude I believe is a key to succeed at this endevor. That is why a day like today doesnt make me upset instead it makes me happy to know that my longs might do better than what they have been doing.

Don't let this market get you down. It only will help in washing out the weak hands so we can make way for a real rally.

ALOHA surfs up!!!!!!!!

Thursday, April 28, 2005

All indexes now in short term downtrend (except sp500)

SP600 and NYSE have failed there attempted rally by establishing new lows for the year and the Nasdaq gave another distribution day signaling it is not a time to be going long stocks yet. I had a rough day on the long side and that is my key to stay away from longs and stick with shorts cause that is what is working for now.


I have mentioned some of these before but they are still shortable and still offer plenty of profit potential. Remember to cut loss above today's highs if they dont work.


Wednesday, April 27, 2005

Very short term is looking more up.

Sub-Intermediate and Intermediate term trends in all the major indexes are all down. But the very short term appears to be a small base (NOT saying it is the bottom!!). Considering technically the SP600 and NYSE is still in a confirmation of an uptrend mode and SP500, Dow, Nasdaq has not pierced its recent lows this month with all the negativity I am hearing we could be getting a nice tradeable rally. But overall we are under the 50 dma on all averages so I would not get excited. However volume did pick up today and my longs continue to work quite well. So here are some more longs to consider:

RG ALNY TUP AIR SMBI and two I mentioned before DSTI ASPM. I also like THOR and DGIN on a big pullback right to their pivot points.


Stop calling a bottom. It looks like we are just moving sideways to down for now. Relax and have a great evening.


Tuesday, April 26, 2005

Another distribution day.

These days are adding up. Anybody going long with a significant portion of their account is making the wrong trade. The big money to be made is on the short side. If you go through this past month in this blog you will see a ton of money has been made on all my shorts. Yet everyone wants to talk about longs. To be honest, forget about that. Grow up and understand I take longs in this market cause I know what I am doing. If you are new you should ONLY RIGHT NOW be shorting the rallies. Indexes are all in downtrend intermediate and short term now. The accumulation days in the NYSE and SP600 dont mean a whole lot to me anymore. The distribution day today along with a lot of shorts bumping right at resistance says prices should go lower. We need more fear and pain for this market to bottom and I dont see it at all yet. I cant wait till it happens but until then have to trade the short side aggressively and the long side with very tight stops.

Indexes all in a downtrend so remember these longs will probably follow the market but they have the patterns and I have the experience to say these are the better bets to take as long swing trades: STMP - on a pullback to pivot point, ENER - mentioned this before, SPTN - breakout today, CNB - nice tight base it is getting ready to complete, CNU - is green on BOP, has a ton of accumulation in chart, and looks like it is ready to breakout. CNU STMP are my favorite charts.

Now this is where the money is being made right now: Shorts: IPS PHLY INFY ESI COGT FRK SE MVK MOH NSS DST MDS
I have mentioned quite a few of these before.

Good luck and enjoy the ride down.

Monday, April 25, 2005

Two more longs

PBCT is a beautiful chart breaking out of a cup with handle pattern and a company with great earnings/sales growth. It is a buy in the morning. Cut loss at a move below 50 dma, if it pulls back on low volume, or do it with a breach of 40.39 price.

EW is also a long if it can make a new high (March high) on strong volume.

That is all.

Not sure which way market wants to go.

The indexes are ALL in an intermediate-term downtrend still. All are still in short term downtrends too, except the SP600 and NYSE. So still can not get too bullish but I must admit my longs have been doing beyond what I would expect in this kind of market. And then my shorts that made me some good cash recently that have bounced seem to be setting up decent short-term bottoms. But then again some shorts I still have that have moved against me seem to be hitting key resistance if they fail that can not be good.

To add to all of this I am noticing the beginning of some Internet stock bases: IMNY VRSN RNWK IVIL. So maybe after another pullback some internet stocks might take some leadership. I guess we will see.

Until then here are some nice charts that are worth taking a swing long position in remember cuttin losses below today's low is an absolute must incase they do not work.

OTD. I know I mentioned OTD twice before this nice breakout today and that is because it showed signs today was coming. It is "still" a buy because it looks like it wants to take out the highs it had in March. I, btw, am expecting more gains than that however.

ALOHA for Monday.

Friday, April 22, 2005

Today's longs

I have to get bullish now, even though I think the market is ultimately heading lower. The SP600 and NYSE are in a confirmed market rally and today's reversal on the SP and Dow was very nice.

My longs are working better now and I am getting higher quality charts showing up on my screens. I am off for a day at the beach but do have some new long candidates along with some longs I have that are acting correctly and showing excellent price action giving another chance to add some buys.

Good luck and don't let the market get you down. Just always be ready for the unexpected cause that is all the market knows how to do.

The best daily swing trade long position possibilities (some have been mentioned before -- a good thing):
The last two are very speculative due to the trading volume but still worth a poke. Remeber you should always cut your losses on these with a breach of the 50dma, today's lows (unless it is very very close to the 50dma), or cut your losses at 5% no matter what.

ALOHA and have a wonderful weekend. Maui No Ka Oi.


Everybody is talking about it being a scam stock. So what, if you can make money off of it. I wont say they are wrong. I cant predict the future but lets take a look at the chart. The stock brokeout on HUGE (heaviest of its trading life) from a short term (one and a half month) cup base and long-term (a little over one year) cup w/handle on Febuary 10th at 10.62. This breakout was of course what I like a stock to look like as it breaks out. I took a position in it that day. The only negative thing is that two days ago the breakdown of the 50 dma on weak volume scared me out of 3/4. Nothing I can do about that I was trying to be disciplined in a weak market. Now for the rest of my 1/4: I am not selling it today as it looks like another breakout (not blowoff top). There are flaws with this breakout. The base was sloppy but if the momentum stays from all the accumulation that has been taken place keep letting profits accumulate. December through April is full of buyers initiating the purchases above or at the ask. This is positive action not negative.

Thursday, April 21, 2005


I am going to be keeping an eye on OO for a pullback on low volume to around the 14 area. I like this daily chart and the volume surge today on the earnings looks good as long as today's low holds. Still the base is sloppy with wild price action so I might still hold off. We will see what kind of pullback I get before I decide. Just thought I should share this info with you.

Thank God for IBD's Big Picture

Now I can say I have to be on the lookout for breakouts in small caps. The SP600 has followed-thru as now I know what the volume is on that index. This is the time to start looking for good chart patterns breaking out in the small cap world as this index has been the leading index for a long time. SP600 is the Nasdaq of 1998-2000. It is "the" index.

Long swing trades for today


What is almost amazing about this list is that I have mentioned half of these before in my past blogs. That means they are still working, still building good bases and price patterns, and are setting up another add to or fresh buy opportunity. Remember to cut losses either at a pierce of today's low, a breakdown below the 50 dma, or the smartest thing cut the loss at 5%. DSTI and SSNC are my two favorite new long candidates for tomorrow. I am in a hurry today to meet up with some friends so can not go into much detail about the individual charts. Anyways, read my market analysis below and check out some of these nice charts.


Who would have seen that coming?

A really nice day for the indexes but it was not a follow thru so I remain very skeptical about this rally. The SP-500 yesterday made a new low for the year, reseting the count of the attempted new rally. So today was the first up day, we now need to see a move of 1.7% on heavier volume in the next 3 to 7 sessions. The Nasdaq on the other hand has held its lows of year and today WOULD have been the "follow-thru" we needed to start buying good quality fundamental stocks with nice chart patterns and excellent speculative chart pattern creating stocks BUT VOLUME WAS LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE. No conviction of institutions. If this was a real rally getting ready to start volume would have surged from yesterdays level. But that did not happen so I can not get too bullish. But however I have cut some shorts and will be looking for more long positions. If you think you missed the bottom. Relax. Only lucky people nail bottoms and if you think they do it consistently you are wrong. Plus the biggest winners in the stock market have not made their biggest moves in one day. It takes time to work out and before we go buying everything we need to make sure the "elephants" (institutions) are participating. For now it does not look like it. But we will see.

Wednesday, April 20, 2005

I want to mention one beautiful base. AIRT

AIRT is creating what appears to be a great looking base. That huge move from June to November has merged into a very tight-priced action base with amazing volume characteristics. Every time the stock bounces it bounces on well above average trade. End of Jan/beg. of Feb, mid March, now. Then the other days when it goes sideways and/or drifts down it does it on very low volume. I also love BOP's action and the fact that Moneystream consistently makes new highs after each bounce lower in the price chart. Very positive action in the base. No postion yet but waiting.

Don't fight the trend

I monitor around nine chat rooms throughout the day sometimes and have noticed that there are a lot of bullish or people that want the market to be bullish. Stop that. The market is going to do whatever it wants to do. The best thing is to not fight the current downtrend. Keep cash handy for when the turn comes.

Today the indexes all fell on an increase in volume than the day before. The pattern remains the same: days down on heavy volume, days up on low volume. Shorts keep on working really well so I'm not going to change my plan of attack yet. Keeping with the shorting theme here are some daily charts to check out on the short side.


There are many more shorts that are ready to go again but I have mentioned them in my blog before. If you are really curious you can go back over the past week and get some more ideas. Some of the charts I mentioned above I have actually mentioned before. Remember that is a good thing. Not a bad thing.

Longs for tomorrow are a little short but that is the point the market is NOT bullish but two of the charts I mention below are both already up big for me but they are breaking out or bouncing off key moving averages on good volume. Will they continue to work? How do I know. The only thing you can do is have tight cut losses. To be honest you shouldn't be going long anyway in this market if you are newbie.

CVV volume has come into it this month. Some fund/institution has taken a likeing to this stock and is willing to bid it up. After having such quiet action before this month, consistently having activity now while creating a nice rounding base, BOP being very strong, and having this as one of the better acting sectors I have decided to take a speculative position in this stock.

INNO I am long this stock from 1/31/2005. The stock has once again broken out from its base on heavy volume. The BOP on this stock is green and has been maxed to almost maxed out since January. The stock consistently rises on good volume, pulls back on low volume, and keeps its price action tight in its base. I am up over 40% on this and still have not sold a single share. The chart was beautiful before (and at) its first breakout on the 31st and it is still looking good now with its second breakout.

OPMR has pulled back to its 50 dma and is bouncing on strong volume. This is a very pretty chart since its late September rocket move. The breakout to a new high on 1/25/2005 was the first buy opportunity since then it has steadily trended up on high volume, green strong BOP, but has not given a good safe buy since the 25th. Today we got it. Cut loss with a move below 50dma.

Here are some more longs I want to add to if they can make new highs: CNU ICUI TZIX OFIX. Notice three of them are health services. Medical leads in bear markets.


Tuesday, April 19, 2005


Forgot about this long. This is a nice long term chart with moneystream leading the way. today's breakout makes this an excellent long. nice long term chart pattern

No conviction to today's up move.

Volume once again decreased on all exchanges. Not a positive sign institutions are in a hurry to jump back into the market. But we still have to watch in the next seven days for a move of 1.7% on above average volume to consider us in an uptrend again. Even if we get it I dont think it will last. Market needs to make up time to put together decent bases in the charts so we can have a sustainable move up. Overall a boring day with not much happening.

I did find some longs to consider for tomorrow:
MINI nice bounce off the 50 dma lot of accumulation and nice BOP on tcnet

WEN everybody trash talking WEN but today it broke out of a sloppy base and with all the negativity in this stock I think a good trade is possible.

HTRN just some wonderful accumulation this year, BOP on tcnet is beautiful, and the price pattern is very strong. Today's new high on good volume is another chance to buy some.

AVL mentioned yesterday but with today's breakout a pullback makes an excellent long. As long as the pullback is on low volume.

AWGI BOP on tcnet and volume was coming into this stock before this move today. Even tho I mentioned it yesterday, today's strong move up on good volume signals the breakout is around the corner. If you are long from this morning's open 12.35 is my cut loss.

ALOHA time to surf.

Monday, April 18, 2005

Do nothing day

Today appears to be a dead cat bounce on the indexes. All closed higher but in the lower half of their daily price range. Not positive action. Volume also came in lower than Friday's selling. Not strong support.

I found some longs (but have mentioned almost all of them already in the past -- that is a good thing) and some shorts. But nothing dramatic on either side.


Remember with longs you can cut the loss at a breach of today's lows or if it is really close to the 50dma you can cut it with a breach of the moving average.

ELOS are the best four.
SNMX round out some other charts breaking down at key resistance areas.

I want to mention also that I am not perfect. For example I took a beating on my CNTY long today (-13%) but with all the profits I have in my short positions it never (as should always be the case) even hurts the portfolio. Also remember limitng longs is crucial when the markets are in a downtrend like now. Trying to catch the current falling knife is just plain silly when the only charts that look good are medicals.


Sunday, April 17, 2005

Before I go to bed...

When i wake up before the bell, in the morning, if the market is down a lot and my short postions gap down a lot as well I will be covering half of em probably. Usually I take half profits at 25% on the short side cause you can only get 100% move. Remember, if the market gaps down more than 1% or starts falling rapidly take some profits from the short positions I have been recommending the past week.

Saturday, April 16, 2005

Still a lot of charts that can offer some great short positions

This downleg in the indexes has produced a 5% decline since I talked about the averages bumping up against their 50 dma in their downtrend. The stock charts were all breaking down past week culminating into what we saw Friday. What will Monday bring? How the heck do I know. I do know this, there are fresh shorts still out there and the shorts I currently own and the others I have mentioned have produced some nice profits. I have taken gains (usually cover 1/2 of position no matter what) with some of my shorts being down (or up however you look at it) 25% (CMC, etc...). Still a lot of my shorts charts are broken and if the indexes eventually bounce on low turnover and the individual charts look weak still yet another shorting opportunity may appear. The VIX is jumping, finally, and that helps indicate that fear is building. So my best guess is there will not be blood on the street Monday since a lot of people I talk to suggest it could happen. If it does I would be real happy and would probably cover almost all of my shorts expecting a powerful rebound. But I dont think I have to worry.



Swing position Long ideas: PRSC breaking out of a base on top of a base pattern that started in January 2005. It is a medical stock and you know they do the best in bear markets.

Don't believe me well here are all the interesting charts that caught my attention Friday: DNA LNCR TKTX ABT BMY HYTM. The last two I have mentioned before. If TKTX could either base for a week or pullback on low volume to 27.75 I would love to take a position in this beautiful chart. Today's surge in volume was HUGE, BOP is green, and the price action shows excellent characteristics since March 2004.

ALOHA and great luck this upcoming week.

Friday, April 15, 2005

Learning a valuable lesson AGAIN

USG OI UGI I recommended these a couple days of go and had to cut all losses according to my rules. But I learned a valuable lesson a breakout on news in a bear market is not a good position to take. This has happened to me before and I still keep falling for this. Maybe now I have learned my lesson. In a bull market the news usually still moves a breakout. Example of breakout on heavy volume yesterday that i mentioned MAIN. Huge volume move for no reason. And if you think the news of their upcoming earnings call caused the volume surge. ERR you are wrong. Look at the move today. +4.6%.

Thursday, April 14, 2005

Many more shorts

If you have been reading this log you seen a lot of the shorts do exactly as the charts said they should do. CMC can look at the list yourself. So no need to fight the trend cause there are a ton more. Here are some more shorts for you to consider trading tomorrow for a swing position:

MCRI LCBM ATI OSG TIE CRS TRMB CTSH IHP SGR PD PCP. Those are the best candidates but there are more if you like:

I did find some long candidates from the safety sectors:

WGAT PEP HYTM LUB SHOE MAIN USG MDR. Some of these have been mentioned before. Which is a great thing! But these charts are still beautiful and like SHOE have been getting a lot of buying with some green BOP.

Surf is still up and that is why the report is still short. But I think if you have been reading this, you have gotten the point and hopefully have been looking at the charts to see why I select what I do and why it works.

BTW, If it doesn't work NO MATTER WHAT cut the loss below the low of today on today's selections for longs and cover with a move above today's highs for the shorts that are selected. Remember, if it doesn't work, move on.


Charts never lie.

Anybody that did not think today was going to happen needs to start reading my blog more. All those shorts yesterday foretold what is happening now. You just can not have all your leaders charts get ugly, rollover, then break the 50 dma on heavy volume after multiple year uptrends. I will be back later on to give more long/short ideas. But if you go thru my blog and look at my shorts you will see they have done what the charts said they were going to do. And that in turn has made you some "real mad money."

Wednesday, April 13, 2005


OTIV pullback to 14.50 is necessary in this market before entering.
SCVL again. Third time mention

Surf is up today and that takes priority.


I haven't seen so many short's on my scan in a long time.

I have been pounding the table on shorting the oils, ever since Merril Lynch sold that 11mill and 14mill block of XOM on March 9th. Since then the charts rolled over on heavy volume. But now after a small volume rally back up they are all failing on very heavy trade. If you read thru the blog you will see I have mentioned many of these before.


Now for the other shorts whose charts have broken down on heavy volume.


I have mentioned some of these before. I don't know what to make of this as the longs I have suggested the past couple of days have been acting fine. Either moving up or pulling back on low volume. The ones that haven't of course I have gotten rid of but bottom line a lot of my longs are still working. But today was ugly on the charts.

Tuesday, April 12, 2005


Sorry for the short post but there is small surf today and I have to surf it. But I, of course, had time to make moves in my portfolio and plan to cut off some shorts as they have either run their course or made strong bounces today on good volume. The good news is I got some pretty charts today and if you have been paying attention to my longs you will see I am doing just fine there.

These are the best looking charts for swing/postion trades

and here are some more that I have either already talked about or are once again breaking out with volume.
SCVL this one is a beauty on TC2000 if you put BOP up

Remember you want to buy as close to the pivot point (the previous high on the chart) as possible and cut your losses no matter what with a move below today's close.

Covered rest of qqqq and spy short

just to be safe. There is some small surf and I am hard up to get some. I covered some (but not a lot--still ugly charts) shorts and have found at least 5 really nice longs today. When I get back in I will update for tomorrow. Strong looking day but volume is still below the 50 day volume average. So this may either be a dead cat bounce or just another base building day waiting for that 1.7% move on heavier trade to give us a confirmation day on the rally that might have started on March 30th. OR it could be a bounce back to the 50 dma before going even lower. I mean remember Alan Greenspan isn't putting on the brakes because he thinks the economy is strong. He knows gas prices/oil is starting to hurt the consumer. But still some nice longs to look at. I will be back later.

Monday, April 11, 2005

Covered another 1/4 of my QQQQ and SPY position

Still holding half.



CCK rolled over in March and has now broke its 50 dma on strong volume. RS already hitting new lows.

CMN might need a bounce but convincingly broke that 50 dma on heavy volume. Since this is a medical stock it might not make a great short but the chart pattern is there.

GDP broke in March moved with the 50 dma and now has failed it on a pickup in volume.

JMDT IPO short bumping 50 dma after multiple failures. A cut loss with a move above 19.00.

AFFM IPO short bumping and failing 50 dma. Chart looks like it is rolling over.

FLSH broke down in March, rode its 50 dma, and has now failed it in heavy volume.

BWA now breaking its 200 dma on heavy volume. Past month and a half is full of sellers. A move above today's high and you know I am wrong.

HCR nasty break in February but it somehow rallied. Well now it is breaking again and the past two weeks there have been obvious sellers. This chart does not look healthy.

FON heavy volume churning today against its 50 dma. Since Dec it has slowly trended down and now looks ready to fail and move lower again.

SEPR perfect looking short chart. My BOP went from green to yellow to red today, price stopped right at the 50 dma, and then failed on heavy trade. SEPR is the best looking short tonight.

AACC failed the 50 dma on heavy trade rallied on light trade back to it and now has rolled over past its 200 dma on heavy trade. AACC is an ugly chart with a heavy seller in the crowd.


WGAT update. If a new pulback to $5.00 comes that is the new entry. I nibbled some at $5.50. Read my Friday long's post for the WGAT chart story.

OTD is a speculative play. Less money and looser cut losses warranted. OTD is shaping a beautiful base from early/mid March to today with quiet trade on down days and heavy trade on up days. It appears to have double bottomed in Sept and January, rallied strongly on great volume to March, has shown excellent green BOP, and is moving strongly today from that tight month long base. I have poked an early position before the breakout due to this year's price/volume action.

MPAC has shown some excellent price/volume action since January and is making a tight flat base on low volume. Today showed a strong block come in above the bid, BOP is moving green again, RS making new highs before price, and excellent fundamentals. If MPAC makes a move above April's high a position is warranted.

GRS is another gold stock looking good. This chart has made an excellent long cup with handle (one year). Volume has shown consistent heavy trade on up days and tight price action. The move yesterday followed by todays breakout on heavier trade with strong BOP and new highs in moneystream makes a position here in GRS look smart. A better place would be a low volume pull back to 6.50.

FNX is not a safe long now but today's volume makes it one to watch. BOP was strong on last month move up, then it pulled back on very light trade, now it is moving up again this time on HUGE trade. 100 to 1000 shares before a breakout above March highs is good. Cut loss at 6.15 or sooner depending on risk tolerance. Great potential upside.

MAXF is another speculative long. NOTICE THAT IS ALL THERE IS FOR NICE BASES. NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR A BULLISH MARKET. BOP has been full green for over a month, big volume moves, and a current tight base. A move over 13.90 is the long signal.

CHTT also looks like it wants to make new highs. BOP green strong, RS really strong, fundamentals are incredible, and this move today looks like CHTT is going higher.

Saturday, April 09, 2005

I want to add two more shorts to watch on Monday

SBUX already broke down rallied to its March 50 dma and created its first opportune time to get short. This breakdown past two days is bad. It failed both 50/200 dma, with a pickup of volume and a move below yesterdays close it is becoming obvious SBUX looks to be going to the lower 40's.

CMC is coming right back to that March high (which churned on huge volume) off of a rally that showed lackluster enthusiasm. With yesterday's move to the downside with a pickup in volume, my moneystream making new lows already for the year, and the ugly BOP it looks like CMC could go to the mid 20's.

Friday, April 08, 2005


LOW failed at its 50 dma in March and now has broken its 200 dma on a pickup in volume.

NSC second 50 dma failure this year on heavy trade. This time looks to be for real as the chart is now looking like a rollover.

CSX is a short once it breaks that 50 dma. It looks like that is going to happen as the sector is weak and the past three weeks have shown a couple of big negative days.

BWLD second and more powerful breakdown below the 50 dma. This chart is choppy and wild signaling it may be time to go lower.

UTIW has failed at its 50 dma on good volume. With its sector turning weak it looks like lower prices are coming

YELL is too extended to the downside but a low volume bounce makes it a great short as the past month has not shown good price/volume action and today's breakdown came on huge trade.

PII needs to make a low volume bounce to the 50 dma also. But the past two weeks have been littered with BIG sellers and I dont see why at least the 200 dma wont come into play.

FWRD extended also but a low volume bounce followed by a move down is the time to grab a short. Whole sector is weak.

PKX nice short. Past month full of distribution days. Another failure at its 50 dma on a pickup in volume says lower 40's are on the way.

FOXH an IPO 50 dma failure. Always a good short. This chart looks like it is rolling over along with the failure at the 50dma on volume.

CVGI after topping in March it went below the 50 dma and now is bouncing lower off of the average with a pickup in volume.

COL after a long uptrend it has cracked its 50 dma on a pickup in volume. Chart looks like it is rolling over.

ELNK rallied back to its 50 dma after a HUGE break in Febuary. The failure here on a pickup in volume is evidence that ELNK will be making new lows.

NAFC ugly BOP on chart along with a weak rally back to the 50 dma (with selling involved mind you) after its break in March. the high volume move down today appears to be the start of another move down.

KEA yet another failure at the 50 dma. The pickup on volume along with ugly chart makes me believe KEA will see $10.

ALOHA and have a great weekend.


WGAT needs to pullback to around $4.75 but the breakout today was on huge volume coming right off the 50dma, the run-up in Dec came on huge trade and strong BOP, the base for the past 3 months came with light trade and tight price action. A very pretty chart.

Covered 1/4 of my shorts SPY QQQQ

1/4 cover SPY and QQQQ at the bell.

Thursday, April 07, 2005


GGG 50 dma breakdown on heavy trade. This is not the best time to short it. A small rally on low volume would be the opportune time. Cut the loss at 40.

INFY 50 dma rollover breakdown on heavy volume

BBW is breaking down for a second time in a row on strong volume. A rally on low volume makes a good short opportunity.

RNOW has bumped and failed at its 50 dma continuing its downtrend. Cut loss with a move over 50dma

SRVY another IPO short. These are the ones I like. High volume 50 dma soon to come failure. Wait for the actual break before taking a position. Once it breaks and starts moving lower use the 50 dma to cut the loss.


SRX the 3 yr earnings growth of 39% and sales growth of 31% helps support the charts breakout. Three days of heavy accumulation culminating this breakout has come from a strong uptrend and heavy support off of February's bottom. Relative strength is also hitting new highs and led price. A great sign.

XRTX is another fundamentall strong stock. 3 yrs earnings/sales is 91%/39%. XRTX's volume is picking up and if it can break that 20 level on some volume a breakout looks to produce higher prices.

CRYP bouncing off the 50 dma on heavy volume. An excellent add to point from its very strong Feb. breakout.

CNTY breakout on heavy trade from 3 1/2 month cup w long handle. BOP is green, great accumulation on chart since April 04 makes this a strong long.

OMR breakout on heavy trade from year long cup w handle. BOP is extremely green, the base has shown tight price action with relatively quiet trade in the base. This is a pretty chart

SCVL looks like it is ready to breakout from that month long handle from its one year plus long cup with handle. This chart has shown a ton of accumulation on its right side of its base (feb-march). BOP is really pretty too.

Going short SPY QQQQ

Indexes are bumping up against their 50 dma and the move towards it has come on very weak volume. This is typical of a dead cat bounce. Bounce to the key moving averages and resume trend. With the lack of leadership in strong sectors, I feel confident about these positions. If I am wrong, no big deal. I will cut my loss at SPY 119.75 QQQQ 37.20.


This is a perfect example of what I dont want a position to do. It was obvious I was way wrong on these. With that you have to cover the whole lot. The odds were in favor of a continuous move down and it did not happen. When you are wrong you can never second guess why or what the market is doing. You must listen to the market and agree with it that you were just plain wrong. My analysis has been proven incorrect and I must take my lumps.


DIOD 4 month cup with handle breakout on heavy trade. DIOD has some flaws like heavy trade within its base but the high volume strong price moves in February and tight price action in the base is very bullish

WPPGY nice bounce off the 50 dma on heavy trade. A lot of accumulation on this chart past 8 months and beautiful BOP (until just a short while ago but it looks like it is going to change) on tc2000.

ZOLT is resuming its previous uptrend with a high volume move over its 50 dma.

HET has made a high volume move over 50 dma. It would be a nice long with a pullback. A cut loss with a move below 50 dma is recommended due to the inconspicuous chart pattern.

Wednesday, April 06, 2005

Shorts for Tomorrow

SPF needs to rally back to 50 dma before it is a go. But this stock is now broken with this heavy volume move to the downside.

JCOM has rallied back to 50 dma on low volume after its huge break. Screaming short with a cut loss above 50 dma

CKFR high volume 50dma break

CPL 50 dma failure. This was an IPO not too long ago. Those are always good trades if you can get em.

DELL starting a new trend down again? High volume engulfing candle to the downside after failing at 50 dma. A break of the 200 dma appears to be coming.

AMG high volume 50 dma failure

WLK 50 dma failure on big volume. This stock has rolled over and the past month has been littered with high volume down days.

MNT 50/200 dma failure on large volume.

SLXP 50 dma failure rollover on high volume.

BG huge volume 50 dma failure.

These are daily charts and should be taken as position trades. NOT DAYTRADES. Remember, cut your loss at 5% or above the high of today's current price bar.


Speculative Longs for Tomorrow

When I see the patterns I see below they usually work. If they don't, cut your loss below today's low.

TIMHY has shown consistent huge volume up days the whole year of 2005. This stock is also forming a tight base with terrific volume characteristics within its year long base. Today's accumulation off the 50 dma looks like institutional support coming in again.

TIII nice breakout from year long cup with handle base. BOP is green, strong accumulation in base, low distribution, and tight price action are all good signs.

LUB breakout on heavy volume from 5 month cup w/ handle base and also 13 month base on top of base. This has the same characteristics as the last two stocks mentioned.

XTND high volume move today within its year long base. Recent action is showing a lot of accumulation with green BOP looking nice also. A move higher seems highly especially with the quiet trade within the base on down days.

Also remember when speculative stocks are moving like this without strong fundamentally sound stocks...that is not good for the market.

Longs for Tomorrow

Market gave another distribution day today on the Nasdaq. So, as always, 3 out of 4 stocks follow market. But since my longs have been doing OK, I will continue to play the long side also.

ISRG breakout today from a flat base

AMHC needs a p/b to 36.15. Breakout from four month base

CERN p/b to 54.75 go long. Breakout from four month base

SIGI had a high volume bounce off its 50dma. It has shown a lot of accumulation since Feb. A new high looks to be coming soon.

CQB strong BOP. Showing lots of accumulation recently within a solid uptrend. New highs looks very probable.

Tuesday, April 05, 2005

Shorts for Tomorrow

QCCO another IPO short

ISCA ugly wild candle on daily. Watch this for further weakness.

COI looks unhealthy with a failure at 200 dma after a heavy selloff from previous level. If wrong cut loss before 12.50.

ADM 50 dma break on volume. Looks to be rolling over. 20 looks doable.

ESIO failing at both moving averages with a pickup in volume

WMS failing at moving averages with a pickup in volume also

QSFT if it rallys to 200 dma on low volume a short position looks right.

SRNA breakdown on heavy volume from its 50 dma.

Longs for Tomorrow

WC on a pull back to 54.50 level on low volume is a nice buy after the strong volume it has shown blasting through its 3 1/2 month base.

KRY gold stock is a buy with its high volume move. With a break of its March highs the buy confirmation will be recognized. Building a strong base since November with proper volume characteristics inside the base.

PLB breakout from cup (late Oct to Feb) and handle (Feb to now) on high volume.

APPX breakout from high cup (Apr 04 to Jan 05) and handle (Jan to now) on high volume.

ABB bouncing off 50 dma on big volume. A starter position is worth taking with a tight cut loss. Past two months has shown a lot of accumulation days after a quiet base. BOP on tc2000 is looking very healthy and green.

SCS Look at past 5 months volume in its base. Tons of accumulation. A breakout above 14.45-.50 is a go.

Monday, April 04, 2005


CVX another oil stock breaking down on huge volume. A short now and a rally to the 50 dma is a high reward, low risk play.

ALXN is getting ready to break that 200dma. It has shown multiple down days on huge trade. Add today to that mix and lower prices look certain for this stock.

AHC this small base it is building is littered with distribution days and this nasty reversal along with its rolling over sector seems like a good short a move over 100 would negate that.

PKZ breaking down from its 50 dma again on good volume

FDG this stock is coming under pressure from sellers since December yet it still keeps climbing. I have a feeling that is over and a move down will start soon.

PTR this may be its last move to these levels. I have started a short position due to the high volume selloff again reaching this price leve. The whole sector is being sold by the smart money right now.

A is rolling over again. Breaking recent support on high volume and now both moving averages are trending behind it.

WYNN looks like Baron Funds is selling it. They had it the whole way up and it looks like the blow off top of Dec and now this high volume roll over is being done by some smart fund guys. A pullback to the 66 level makes this a good short.


Fundamentally and Technically Strong Longs

MCRS is a buy as today's breakout came on strong volume. Weekly chart is also very strong with proper accumulation/distribution characteristics.

RTSX a pullback to 20 is an excellent long to take. This strong chart has some flaws so i would watch it closely. But the fundamentals support this move.

ISSC looks ready to breakout with a move over 34.25. I have already taken a position as I feel this chart is strong with its 3 1/2 month cup with handle about complete, BOP green again, and it being a fundamentally strong stock.

Speculative Longs

OTD (wait for a move over 1.75 on volume)
DLK pullback to .45 entry
PHMD is a go at this price
ABP (again) need to pullback to today's low on low volume to be added to.
BBBB is a long at this price level.

All of these can be bought tomorrow if they pull back to their pivot points. If you don't know what a pivot point is, then please go to and read. Also you can cut your losses at a breach of today's lows or less.

Longs that are speculative. Dont play them unless you are a PRO.

First off: When i pick these stocks these are after the bell has closed. I then look at the chart. If it is breaking out on huge volume, I will see if it pulls back to its pivot. If it does I take a tiny position to play the speculativity of these. Look at my past comments on SILCF. And if there has been a previous run-up in prices for a couple of months on huge trade, then a pullback that hopefully last a couple of months that also bases around its moving averages, I will then take a position if it breaks its basing pattern on huge trade example today is DLK. I will nibble if it hits .45 cents a share.

IPO shorts (my favorite)

LVS THRX BDAY IDIX PLSB CLMS TLVT all broke down from support or key moving averages on high volume. If you can find shorts and if you are an experienced chartist, shorts on these plays should offer up some nice rewards. You can cut all losses with a move above today's highs.

If you know how to read charts you dont need me to tell you when to buy

Someone said I lose credibility by not posting my buy and sells. Oh yeah that is real easy when you sometimes have over 30 positions at once. If you know how to use charts you will be able to tell when i sell. If you have questions just post it in the comment box and i will be more than happy to explain.

Friday, April 01, 2005

Ugly charts everywhere but the market is still holding those March 30th lows

The nasdaq and SP both held those March 30th lows so technically we still have day one on the map that could lead to a follow thru. If that happens tho it might not last. I still have a ton of ugly charts and less than 20 beautiful flawless charts. And most of those turn out ugly recently. So that leaves me with the opinion we still have to move lower. I mean come on all I am finding that actually makes me money are shorts. But I know how people love longs so here are some pretty charts to look at that I like or have taken a small (cause we are in a downtrend!) position in. And when i say small I mean no stock is larger than 2% of my account.


I also mentioned a small cap stock mentioned SILCF in a chat room that i frequent. It made a huge move on huge volume on March 23rd out of a year long plus base. A pullback to the pivot point of 3.00 was taken the next day as I suggest in the chat room. The chart is very nice with the sound base and plenty of green BOP so a pullback to 3.40 the next couple of days would be a good add-on to play this small stock. This stock is pure speculation due to the low volume and current market condition we are in so be swift when moving with this one.


Shorts for the weekend to ponder

PDFS 50 dma failure on heavy volume after a long base filled with heavy volume. Not good.

MYGN I want a bounce before another short opportunity comes available but a small add-on short here if you got short the late March support breach on good volume.

CFB 50/200 dma failure on heavy volume and 2005 support breach, after already selling off earlier this year.

TXRH is a great short with a follow thru down day on heavy volume from its late March break on heavy volume. These IPO shorts are great when you can find them and I think TXRH could head to its 21 starter price.

CME had its 3rd failure at the 50 dma and did it on heavy volume. Breaking below its March support on good volume creates yet another entry on CME. The early March breakdown was the second and best short entry area.

DCX with gas prices so high, I guess ppl can not afford to buy new cars. DCX is falling again on heavy volume. Since its mid March break on heavy volume it has churned lower on decent volume. Then today another slap in the face. This is a great short entry and if those October lows get bested, I dont see why those lower 30s cant be hit.

STK and SPLS are also both shorts. Both charts show a rolling over on heavy trade.

Insurance companies get hit

Insurance shorts: CB STA FAF FFH PTP TRH ABK and many other smaller ones

Thanks to AIG we have an entire group heading in the toilets. A lot of these stocks have sold off on heavy volume, rallied on lower volume, and most have failed at key moving averages. For the stocks in this group that have either gone too far past there moving averages or too far below last support, you should wait for a rally. For the others just tagging the averages or just breaking support short at will this group is in trouble for the time being.

NCT short

This stock is rolling over. The April top has given way to a year long slow rollover. Starting in January this year it moved below its key moving averages and has had a tough time piercing them. Today it has broken down on rising volume and appears ready to start a substantial leg down.

XL ugly

Short opportunity for XL with todays strong move down after failing to even reach that 50/200 dma inflection point. With the subtle distribution the last couple of months i would expect a move below the October low. But the Oct low had strong volume to bottom out on, so if there appears to be strong support if it reaches that level again I would take a little profit.

FRE short

Uh oh..Freddie is failing both the 50 and 200 dma again. This breakdown today on big volume looks like a continuation move from its top in January. The selloff in Febuary gave way to a bounce on lower volume and now the move down on heavy volume again. Looks like history repeating itself again to me.


breaking to all time new lows on good volume. A short for a couple of bucks.

WMGI short

Looking at a daily chart WMGI is in a little trouble. It has consistently sold off on heavy volume then rallied on low volume to fail at the key moving averages over and over. This recent breakdown that I missed yesterday makes a good short, with a small rally back to the moving averages. If no rally occurs it might not be worth it.

BBY short

It is obvious looking at some big retails something is not right with the pocket book of americans. BBY had heavy selloffs in January and early March, now we see a breakdown right at the conflection points of the 50/200 dma. A short here could be very rewardable.