Tuesday, May 31, 2005

Long swing trades for May 31st continued...

Airlines and Restaurants have joined Retail, Tech, and Medical for industries with a lot of good chart patterns in individual names.

My longs that I initiated in the past month continue to look great and after taking only a small portion of my gains off the table today I continue to be heavily long and will put more money to work in the names I mentioned in earlier posting today and in some of the new names that I am not already long. Some awesome chart patterns reared their heads today in stocks I already am long and as you can see with the names today the market is going to give us more gains.

These patterns do not show up in weak "bull market" bounces. These are the chart patterns, in the strong sectors, that you see in real strong uptrend.


Swing longs already have positions in: INNO AWGI BMD QUIK SPTN STTS

Swing longs already mentioned in blog as swings, with no positions: STEM BDCO CMRG CAND PWEI

Wanted to brag about three holdings also: ENG ABLE GEOI

Bottom line, it feels good to be on the right side of the market. Doesn't it?


On surface it looks bad but after scanning my charts it looks Good!

The nasty close on the indexes gave me the impression that today was not as strong as it looked all day. Then after updating all my charts after the bell I noticed something. The individual stocks in my scan look great. So I would not read too much into a day like this except to say that this was a pullback in the uptrend. How long it last and will go I do not know but I would like to talk about something.

In 1994, The fed hiked rates for a full year. At the end of the cycle the market (SP500) was already drifting up and then went on to rally from 490 to 650 the next year. That market is very similar to this one. This market has dealt with almost a full year of rate hikes, has drifted upward, and is showing signs, with the individual charts, that this market is ready to break lose. If the market is anticipating the Fed is almost done like it did in 1994, I think we could see a nice 20% or so rally.

With todays bad close there should not be this many nice charts with great buying positions yet there are!

Long swing/position trades: GOL DCAI JMDT GEOI ASFI RYAAY BER
On a pullback: JDO -- mentioned this weekend in my last blog entry. A nice pullback to around today's open in the next 5 days would make a great long.


Saturday, May 28, 2005

Memorial Day Weekend; Thank You, Soldiers!

Just wanted to check in this Memorial Day weekend and wish everyone well.

The markets did nothing exciting Friday, yet I found a bunch of nice charts just primed for higher prices. The only thing is a lot of the stocks seem speculative so keeping tight cut losses (as always) and using a smaller portion of capital is waranted with stocks under $10.

Long positions to swing: ESL--needs a pullback, SNDA, RAVN, STST, DHC, ASR, LAN, BDCO, GEOI, JDO, MLP, CMGI, BMD, CCI, CNQ, CFK, CONN, and PWEI.

I wanted to toot my horn and congratulate all who profited with me on the ABLE and GEOI stock. ABLE up 40%, since mention six days ago. GEOI up 16%, since mention three days ago.

I toot my own horn for the simple reason to show investors who dont believe in this rally that it doesnt matter what you think is going to happen in the market. The market has decided the bears are wrong and that is that. So if you have not been long equities because prices are too expensive, the economy is in trouble, the war in Iraq, or any other bearish reason you have missed a lot of great opportunites to make money. Why not cut losses, ride the trend up, and then wait for the charts to agree with your bearish "opinions." That way you can profit from both sides of the market, no matter what you think!


Aloha from Maui :)

Thursday, May 26, 2005

What were we thinking? Stop momentum? Yeah right.

We just keep on chugging along. As I have said, over and over, momentum once it starts going is hard to stop. Today yet another boatload of high quality, fundamentally sound stocks broke out or bounced off moving averages on good volume.

Trading was slow today but volume rose indicating funds are still buying right here and they dont see stocks as "gone too far too fast" yet.

Trading is sure to be lame tomorrow with Memorial Day weekend coming up. I will be around but doubt it.

None-the-less there are tons of charts to still play and stocks like CWTR (up 11%) are plentiful. What an incredible month it has been for my portfolio!!


Aloha and have a great evening.

Wednesday, May 25, 2005

Finally a rest. It's about time...

Finally, the markets took a decent rest. The pullback came on lighter volume than yesterday. That is what you see in strong markets, after going up you pullback on low volume. Everything still looks good. I have great charts popping up today, even with the pullback, so the market still looks strong longer term. However, this pullback, is well welcomed to set up new positions.

I do have a caveat, however. I have been bullish on this market since May 4 and a couple days ago got cautious. I still remain cautious but with all the great charts out there (something you dont see in ALL rallies) I am leaning long still.

What don't I like about this market? The fact that since the April/May lows only one index has had a rally over 2% (SP600, May 18, 2.12%) is a bit disheartening. In good solid bottoms like March 2003, you usually get a couple of big moves over 2% on heavy volume somewhere along the early stages of a strong rally, in the indexes. We have not seen that and I think we should have seen that by now. However, we are in a low volume environment where 2% moves could now be hard to come by.

I hope everybody had a great day.

Long swing/position trades: PVH CTRP BSTE GLW VASC CWTR CAND GEOI

Longs alreay mentioned w/ another buy possibility: QUIK RATE STEM ASTM PRLS IVX DADE ABLE TAGS

Aloha and where is the surf??????

Tuesday, May 24, 2005

Will it Ever End

When momentum gets moving it is hard to stop, think of a train going down the railroad tracks. When this many bears are still around after the run up we have had, it is safe to assume there is more upside ahead.

When will it end? Well I have thought now for a couple of days we needed to pullback on all the indexes. Instead we moved higher again and now more people think we definitely need to pullback. Do you know what that means? We probably will not pullback.

You have to be prepared for the opposite of what you here from everybody and since cautious longs are not fully invested and shorts are covering and cant find a good entry point there is a lot of nervousness out there to what happens next. So what happens now in the process is a guess. But a rest is needed.

With all the good charts out there still, I am bullish longer term. However, a pullback is needed but I will say once again there is too many folks looking for a pullback so overbought markets can become more overbought.

I am still finding TONS of charts that are breaking out of good bases. This is how it looks in BULL markets. Not only that, all my longs that I have taken past three weeks continue to look great. What more can I ask for, for now?


How about that ENG today. Gave the heads up on it twice 5/10 and yesterday. Up 26% today. Also, WGAT is waking up again. That was first mentioned on April 8th.


Monday, May 23, 2005

Market Momentum Continues

Longs are taunting bears, INTC been up 16 of 17 days, Nasdaq BOP (balance of power on tc2k5) is green for two days in a row always a negative for this index, perma bears that have missed this move are now buying, and, after all those reversals in the indexes closing at the high of the days, the markets closed very weak in the last hour today.

What does this mean. I don't know. But I will guess that it is time to take a breather. We are up very nicely since the April/May lows and stocks look overheated, so a breather would be welcomed here. But, then again, overbought markets can become more overbought as momentum is a crazy beast. A market this strong will have a lot of buyers ready to put cash to work at good entry points.


Swing Longs I have already mentioned giving another buy point: CLHB KYPH NRPH RIMG ENG


Sunday, May 22, 2005

Long swing trades

I am going to take positions in ABLE RAVN KYPH in the morning. The rest of the longs I either have already or will watch. DCTH might also make a nice speculative long as the base is almost complete.

NGPS -- needs a pullback to pivot of recent base
ABLE -- needs a pullback for a larger position. A small one is ok for a speculative play

I have had too much fun this weekend. I hope everyone else had a great time too. Time to get back to work.


Friday, May 20, 2005

Market continues to act healthy

The market continues to act well showing gains on heavy volume, pullbacks on light, that are then bought for positive reversals. This is what happens in a healthy market. The whole year we have not seen action like this in the individual charts and usually after going up some on the indexes we would see distribution days shortly after. That is not happening this time. You know why? Bulls are back in control due to the heavy bearish sentiment out there.

A point I would like to hit on today is the fact that so many people are saying "just wait till the market collapses and then you will see the scam the market is." What??? The problem with that view is not that I disagree with it but the timing is just aweful. Maybe consumers are loaded with debt and cant spen, economy is going to slow down, rates are going to rise, or inflation is going to get us. But it is not happening NOW or will it happen next week.

If you would have played the trend and looked at all the bullish charts out there, you could have made some good money. Instead I hear everyone complaining how they lost money the past two weeks. I recommend reading my blog. :)

Go through the past two weeks and write down the symbols and dates and look and see how much they are up now. It doesnt matter what you think of the market, what matters is performance. I have written in this blog over 20 stocks that have moved up over 15% since May 4. AND IT IS FREE!!!!!

I will update with some more swing longs this weekend. I surfed all day and enjoyed the waves so I want to rest before scanning for new plays.


Thursday, May 19, 2005

More longs for tomorrow.

I expect a pullback, tomorrow, dont forget. But there are still a TON of beautiful charts out there. If you look at the longs I have listed last two weeks you will see a LOT of them up over 15% since mention. This is what happens in a bull market. Strong breakouts produce WELL ABOVE average gains than all the old beaten down stocks of the previous bull market.

Here are some more leading stocks (I have mentioned some before :) for swing-long trades:

What a great rally we have had!! Hope you profited on it too.


Rally continues but we need a pullback

Surf is large today in town, so the commentary is going to be short today.

What can I say, since the market gave us a confirmation day on May 4 we have gone straight up on the back of a wall of worry. The wall of worry is now starting to get worried that they are going to miss the upside move. Hello! You just did and now we need a pullback. Will we get it? I don't know. We might keep on climbing higher and higher on this negativity. But I am starting to see signs that individual charts need to take a breather.

I will be back later on after a surf session to look at some more individual longs.


Wednesday, May 18, 2005

Long swing trades for Thursday

Sorry for such a late post. The surf came up and kept me away.


I have mentioned over half of these before. They continue to base, breakout, base, then breakout. That is how you want a stock to act.

Technology, medical, and retail are leaders in this rally and that is where my money is.


Gosh I love blogs. I forgot something very important.

I forgot to mention, I expect a pullback here, because we have gone gone up a little too fast since May 4. Not a big dip just enough to get the bears growling again. The Nasdaq and SP600 are up over 5% since then and some of the move may appear obivous to the "dumb" money now.

Index continues advance in heavy trade.

The indexes were all up over 1% today, with the sp600 leading with a 2.12% gain, with a huge increase in volume. The big surge in volume is the confirmation the uptrend is valid. There is now no doubt that the rally we have been seeing is for real. The huge pickup in volume is the institutions putting more money to work on the long side, shorts covering positions, and institutions initiating new long positions. The old maxim "sell in May and go away" is probably going to be a contrarian this year. The follow thru in the Nasdaq on May 4 is now solidly proven with today's huge advance on stronger volume that was over the 50 day volume average.

In the chat rooms I monitor, I am getting selectively attacked by trapped bears. They continue to be bearish and think a top is now forming, even though a lot of sentiment indicators are at the same level they were in March 2003. This tells me this rally will have legs.

But I dont need chatters to tell me what the market is going to do that is why charts exist. And I am loaded to the gills with longs in medical, tech, and retail that are acting well and continue to offer me new buys.

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF. Dont fight the trend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We are in an uptrend and that is the right side of the market to be on, no matter how much you want a crash.

I will be back later with long picks. But if you just take the time to read my past 5 days of post you will find plenty of options to invest/trade there.

I want to thank everyone who reads this blog. I really appreciate your feedback even when it is negative.

Mahalo and Aloha

will be back later with stocks....

More stock charts I like

Here are some more charts that have great patterns: ELTK GNSS VRSN SO PWAV HCC WTW HXL JWN FD RGCI TRID SWY SFY

So if any traders out there tell you there is not anything to trade. Laugh at them.


Tuesday, May 17, 2005

Keep on keepin on

The indexes continue their short term uptrend that they have been in since beg. of May and volume did pick up today. The bad news on the volume pick up is that it is still well below the 50 dva. So big funds still are not ready to jump into the market. However, charts are a plenty with good patterns. And while everyone complains and continues to be bearish, the Nasdaq is up almost 7% this month. Where have you been?

While the markets continue their short term uptrend, I continue to find nice charts that are breaking out or building excellent bases. How can I and about only 15 traders out of 2000 I monitor see this? It is amazing. If the bearishness was higher in the professional newsletter writers I would be slamming the table calling a bottom. However the pros are still bullish while the "herd" are very bearish. Do you know what that tells me on a ratio basis? That we have an upside bias that goes sideways for a while. Let's see if that is what we get.

Long swing trades I have mentioned before: CCRT LCAV WFMI HTCH LABS MUSE IDIX STTS

Remember you want to buy these as close to pivot point as possible (preferably within 5%, unless a gap then 10% is MAX allowed) for safety.

There are also tech stocks that I like the patterns on but are not ready yet : BRCM RATE THQI RGCI ARRS(missed this one on 4/28 cause mrkt. was weak.) VSEC


Monday, May 16, 2005

Great move in the indexes on suspicious low volume.

The markets had a great move today but the volume was very low. That tells me that the big boys had very little to do with this move up. I would have like to see a move like today come on a nice pickup in trade. But that did not happen so we have to see if the big boys want to jump on this short term uptrend in the indexes. If they do that will be great, but if we get some decent down days on a pickup in volume I will get more cautious.

So instead I still remain bullish like I have been since 5/4/05 and continue to see strength in the Nasdaq. This weekend I gave a list of stocks that look like they are creating bases in the sector. Please, go back and read my weekend thoughts and check out my long list the past week. You can not argue with facts and facts say techs are going higher.

There is still a lot of bearishness out there with the "dumb" money (and sometimes it is beyond dumb) but after reading Helene Meisler's recent publication on www.realmoney.com I know that the Investment professional community is still bullish overall. So we will see how this rally unfolds.

Swing-long trades I have mentioned before: MUSE NNI EEFT
Swing-long trades that need a pull back on low volume: VPHM


Saturday, May 14, 2005

Weekend thoughts.....

I know I have been talking a lot about a rotation into tech, and have been sounding off pretty confident that the Nasdaq is going to outperform the Dow and SP. But I have more reasons to support my analysis.

I have looked at some scans and have noticed a lot of tech stocks building bases that show proper volume characteristics on up and down days. The stocks I mentioned on Thurs and Friday are not mentioned (so include those with these) in this list.


I can not argue with the great price/volume action I am seeing in these stocks, but I do respect the fact that all indexes are trading below their 50 dmas so I remain cautious until a move of 1.7% comes on heavier volume than the day before and above the 50 dva on the indexes.

The markets are all in short term uptrends, intermediate term downtrends, and long term (2002 bottom) uptrends. The Nasdaq is in much better shape than the Dow and SP, and my gut and charts tell me that the negativity in the crowd on techs could prove to be very bullish.

But if the Nasdaq all of a sudden falls 2% on heavy trade and all my beautiful tech charts get busted, I will turn bearish on tech, of course.

I, btw, have not been bullish on the technology sector since 1999 and the early days of 2000 with all the bubble internet/software stocks. It has mostly been select sectors and small caps.

Which brings me to my next point. I am seeing a lot less high quality small cap stocks show up on my scans. I wonder if the steam has run out of this engine for now?

Be back on Monday. Unless I think of something else to talk about.

Friday, May 13, 2005

Fun week.

I still feel the same way I have all week. I believe the indexes are currently weak and that when this downward pressure is over tech will lead. Look at the Relative Strength line today on the Nasdaq compared to the SP. I also like how everytime we start to fall everyone calls a bear market, then next thing you know the dip is being bought. That has been the pattern for the past two weeks.

I do not have much else to add except all those nice charts I have been talking about in technology are just getting prettier and prettier. The longs in tech land have been killing the market. When the markets legs get moving, we are going to see an outperformance this time.

I continue to get plenty of beautiful charts on my swing-long scans. The ones that came up today are almost all tech. I can not argue with that. You can hate tech all you want but when they are moving up...YOU ARE WRONG. Not me.


Argue all you want, my prettiest charts are all medical and tech.

Also my PRETTIEST chart that I first mentioned when I started creating this blog on April 1, 2005 (Go back and read what I posted) is now up almost 50% since my purchase on 3/24 at 3.00. Guess what kind of stock it is? A speculative technology stock SILCF. Its BalanceOfPower indicator has stayed max green the entire time since its breakout on the 23rd of March, everytime is has a good day up it comes on heavy volume, and down days happen with no volume. This is the way you want to see a stock act after a breakout. This is a speculative stock but I have to bring up the point how well these tech stocks have been acting the past two weeks to two months.
Of course if you buy the wrong stocks with poor chart patterns, you get what you deserve.

Aloha and have a great weekend.

Thursday, May 12, 2005

The moving averages work again as resistance.

The market fell (not crashed/swooned/whatever) today on heavier turnover. Barely higher, however, as it was just a few mill shares.

Nothing changes in my assumptions. The market has proven resistance at the moving averages that I mentioned a couple days ago yet however as we hold the lows the bears grow. This helps keep me bullish short term.

I monitor a lot of chat rooms and KNOW that the ones that "chat" are around 75% bearish. This along with what I see on the TV, read in the paper, and hear from people continue to help me stay strong while the past two days have happened. I have had a good feel for the market all year long and no reason to change now.

Not only that, look at what medical stocks have done and tech charts are now starting to do. Swing-long trades: DGIN ABRX URBN MCX MUSE HSP POWI BBI FRGO

I have a lot of technology stocks popping up on my scans while the market falls, so I continue to believe tech is leading this next rally coming up.

Oh yeah. Time to admit a fault and admire a good....

ISSC. Bad trade. It reversed today. You cut your loss and move on.

INNO. I posted this chart as a long on April 20th and have been long since Jan 31st. I sold 1/4 today up 63%. Holding other 3/4 for further price appreciation according to chart.

Wednesday, May 11, 2005

Another nice intraday reversal.

April 29th the Nasdaq, Sp500, Dow, and Small Cap 600 all started out weak, got weaker, then reversed to close at or near the high of the days. The Nasdaq reversed the most dipping further down intraday than the rest of the indexes. The same thing happened today. These are moves you see in a current rally. And that is what we have been having for the past two weeks.

Today proved yet another chance for the bears to crush this rally and they couldn't do it. They even had help today with a plane flying off course and caused a spike down that ended up getting the stops and washed out the weak hands for the reversal.

The two reversals I have talked about above (apr 29 and today) did not happen all year as we were going down. When the market used to crack the bounce did nothing that constituted a bullish reversal. This time things are different. Dips are being bought.

The best thing about this rally, people are still bearish. That is the wall of worry we need to keep climbing. There is plenty of resistance ahead for the indexes but I keep looking at all these beautiful charts I have in leading sectors and fundamentally strong stocks and can't help but think these resistance levels on the indexes will be broken sooner rather than later. But if we get some heavier volume and some 2% moves down, I will of course change my mind. Doubt that happens this time though. The bears are late to the beginning of the year sell-off.

As a bonus, though, if you are a bear. How did you like my GRU short yesterday. You would have made a small killing in one day. I did not take the short, cause I believe we are in a rally-that-has-legs kinda market and did not want to risk a MCRS happening to me.

Swing-long trades to take (buy as close to pivot point as possible): ISSC PWAV DADE MTX BAP CCRT TXCC SYKE FARO. There are also some medical stocks that look good but I am not going long in them: HSIC BOL

Do me a favor if you read this, go back to yesterdays commentary and check out how TXCC, SYKE, and GRU (short) did. I know you will like that.

Have a great day!! I did. Aloha.

Tuesday, May 10, 2005

How bad was today? Not that bad, if you do your own work.

If you listen to the TV, read the paper, or visit chat rooms, you will notice the high level of negativity out there. If you look at the individual charts of the leaders in the market, however, you get a different story. Almost all of my longs acted well today, like the market didnt even go down, and plenty of new charts came up on my scan today for new swing-long positions. So who is right? I am not sure. So lets look at what we have now...

The indexes did what I mentioned they might do yesterday (bounce off key moving averages), with the Nasdaq bouncing down off 50/200 dma, Dow bouncing off the 200 dma, and the NYSE and SP500 bouncing off the 50 dma and they did it with a small increases in volume. Is it time to panic? No. A pullback or a consolidation is something we needed after seven straight up days. With all the nice charts I see on my scans that look good, the high level of pessimism, and all the focus on negative news in the media I feel comfortable that we will hold the lows set in April.

However, anything can happen. Always be receptive to market changes. It can happen at any time.

Update::::::::The more I look at the volume on the index charts the less I feel as confident as I was right after the market closes. One of the things I love about trading is that after doing something else fun and coming back to your work/hobby/love and reviewing the charts again, it is possible to interpret it differently. I still am bullish on my medicals and tech stocks still but I have to respect how well those index did in fact fail at the key moving averages. When the August low happened they pierced right thru the moving averages.:::::::Update.


and lets add one short I like from the 50 dma breakdown that was loved by daytraders: GRU

Aloha. No surf today :(

Monday, May 09, 2005


I also noticed something in hindsight today...On Friday I mentioned how much I like the fundamental/technical patterns in CKCM. Well after today's 9% move, I can see I made a mistake. That move yesterday was a breakout from a proper W-bottom chart pattern that started in early Feb, made first bottom in March, second lower bottom on lower volume on May 1st, and broke out on Friday.

The 43% move blinded me to the fact that this stock broke out none-the-less. If I would have just been a little more aleart I would have noticed that from the 2002 bottom to the 2005 top, it moved 5,805%. That would of helped me notice the W-bottom within the larger uptrend and could have alowed me to gain an entry today. Instead I now have to wait for that pullback.

It is never losing money that bothers traders, it is missing out on the huge winners that hurt the most.

Another boring day, another constructive day.

Today was a good day for the bulls, even though volume fell across the board. I like that I still see a lot of bearishness in the chat rooms I monitor. I call this climbing "the wall of worry." I see a lot of good chart patterns from tech and medical stocks, so I find impossible to understand why so many people are bearish. But that is what makes a market, the few who can follow the trend and not try to game the future always come out ahead. So if you are in to predicting what the market is going to do game, I would come over to the trend side. I see a change in the market from what we had the past couple of months.

The indexes are near resistance levels and I am sure that comforts the bears. But with all the positive charts out there and the money that the medicals have been making me I dont think those resistance levels are going to hold. It appears they might soon become support. But once again. I dont know. I am just trying to think opposite from the majority of traders I know now. Think about it: we had two dips today and both were bought and we closed near the highs of the day. That is not bearish.

And you know what my example of a bull market is: NURO (another plus 10% gain in less than a week for a medical stock after breaking out).

Now for today's swing-trade longs: KV-A NRPH LMS APT FORD BAP ACU FTO NNI OMR SBAC FSL ABB FC.

I have mentioned many of these before. Which either means they continue to go up then rebase and break out again. Or I got them on the 50dma and now they are breaking out of most recent bases. THIS IS NOT PUMPING!! This is smart trading.

Also I mentioned in the #daytraders chat room, Friday, that the ET and AMTD merger rumor is probably true, since both stocks have been tracing the same chart pattern for the past year and a half. I said this because that is what DCAI and MDKI did recently before DCAI took it in.

ALOHA this has been a great week and a half. Lots of money to be made on the long side still.

Friday, May 06, 2005

Consolidating gains

The markets did close to nothing today, with a major dip in volume. That is a good sign for the bulls as consolidating gains helps prepare for a stronger move higher. Besides that, there is not much else I have to add. I am sure you were as bored today as I was with the action. Overall, however, I am happy with the action and hope we have some better trading in the upcoming weeks. If you have been reading this blog for the past week you will notice that over 75% of all swing trades I have offered as potential trades have moved higher (some significantly). That is what happens when the markets are in uptrends. :)

Here are the charts that came up on my scan today for swing-trade long positions:

CKCM is my next "I REALLY WANT TO OWN THIS" stock. The move today came on its heaviest volume in its history. The prior uptrend that ended in Feb came on huge trade, the pullback to today came on light trade, and today the stock POPPED on its largest trade ever. EXCELLENT pattern. If this stock can base sideways or move lower a bit, an entry is something I "long" for. I believe new highs are coming. This chart is just beautiful (even tho it is not ready yet) and look at the fundamentals: YOY revenue change of 107%, Profits up 209%, pre-tax profit margin of 24%, EPS 76, and RS 98. If the market stays bullish this is going to be a nice stock.

ALOHA. C U on Monday.

Thursday, May 05, 2005

A solid day after some negative news.

Today was a victory for the bulls, because there was plenty of reasons for the sellers to reverse yesterdays gains. GM and F downgrade of bonds to junk status by SP was the big one. Yet the bulls fought it off and closed the day on a positive sign by not closing at the LOD (low of the day). We have broken the up, down, up, down, up pattern, by not giving back the majority of today's gains. Volume was also lighter than yesterday suggesting the indexes are digesting yesterdays gains for a further move to the upside.

I don't have much else to say, cause today was a boring day for the indexes but lets look at stocks...There are starting to be some great patterns in technology and medical is already leading this current short-term rally. Here are some more stocks that look healthy for further price appreciation. Rember you want to buy these as close to the pivot point as you can.


And for everyone that thinks BOOM is a scam stock. Why don't you look at the fundamentals of the company and let the market decide if it is a scam or not. Since its February 15th breakout, it is clear to see on a daily chart that there are no sellers in the crowd only buyers. That is why in April the downtrend was on low volume. Since the Feb breakout it is up 140%. What kind of scam is that????? NONE.


Wednesday, May 04, 2005

Markets in confirmed rally for the short-term and sub-intermediate time frame.

Intermediate still remains down but who cares!!!! The market's primary trend since the October 2002 bottom has been sideways. THIS IS A GOOD THING! It is called base building. I am starting to see a lot more cry-babies and whiners in the chat rooms that I monitor. That tells me, along with the more recent bearish newsletter writers, that this turn could have some good legs to go with it. Sentiment is so poor and the bears are so confident that prices are going to fall that I think further upside is almost a certain to happen. But it doesn't matter what I think.

Stocks advanced across the board, volume grew, and more breakouts appeared with good fundamentals. Not good for the perma-bears who think the market is going to fall apart and go to hell. Are they crazy? No. Just newbies or lazy people who refuse to look to the past for answers and want their prediction to come true. Too bad it almost never does work out that way.

Also don't forget: I hear a lot of people saying "but rates are rising, rates are rising." Once again, If you look at history, the market proves conventional wisdom wrong again. Going back to 1997, you can clearly see that when rates are rising the market goes higher. When the Fed is cutting rates the market follows the rates. Don't believe me. Go look for yourself.

Fed begins rasing rates to the end of its raising cycle: stocks move up.
Fed begins lowering rates to the bottom of its lowering cycle: stocks move down.

Don't fret the Fed.

I have covered ALL oil shorts and have less than 3% of my account short. That tells me this is a strong market, with medicals leading the way.


Longs for swing trades

I will be back later on to explain the conditions the markets are in.

Swing trade longs should be bought as close to the pivot point as possible, remember.

MSCC FLOW SBAC CNU AQNT PSTI UNWR THOR. AQNT CNU PSTI need to pullback before they are new buys.

If you have been reading my blog, you know I screwed up on QSII. You should also know that I have bought PSTI TWICE and had to cut the loss twice. Look at what it did today (up 9.75%). Oh well. But now time to show you good examples. CNU TZIX RCI. Sold RCI today, TZIX still holding since purchase up 25%, and CNU (up 12% today) still holding for much higher prices. CNU is in the right industry, and has one of the best looking charts in my long portfolio besides DSTI SCVL INNO.

Aloha. I will be back to talk about the indexes after another surf session.

Tuesday, May 03, 2005

Market is confused! Cash is king.

Nothing to add today that I have not mentioned before. Market is still in overall downtrend with small signs that it is trying to bottom on the very short-term. I can not add much today that has not already been heard or said, if you follow the market. Thank God we have a huge swell coming in our south shore beaches and I was not around for the "excitement" that a Fed meeting causes. Nothing has changed in my assumptions about the market. I have found some long swing-positions to take a SMALL poke on. Going long in this market if you are not experienced is slow suicide. Unless you are long GOOG and as much as I know about the company and how well I follow IBD, I should be ashamed of myself for not owning some shares of the most fundamentally strong stock in the market. Bottom line, in this market, cash is your best investment.

Long swing-positions (keep tight cut losses in this market): NLS NURO VDSI TUP

Aloha, SURFS UP!!

Monday, May 02, 2005

A coma is more exciting than this market.

The markets did close strong at or near the highs of the day, but really today was meaningless and dull. It was a very boring day and came with some of the lowest volume we have seen all year. Everybody is waiting to hear from Greenspan, which I can only pray gives us some direction of follow-thru to the downside or upside so we can get some decent action on the indexes instead of this up, down, up, down, up, and down series. I am still sitting mostly on cash and am holding few shorts and longs. Most of my longs are completely made of medicals. I do however have a few decent longs to show tonight for possible long swing-trades.


All of the stocks (except last four) are from the medical industry. It is obvious looking at all my medical stocks making nice moves out of good bases that this is the only "safe" (using it loosely) area to make good consistent money on the long side currently. I am not sure what this says about the market cause the market changes all the time. But history shows, when you have medicals leading, the market is not too healthy. Unless this time it is different. Don't you love it? I do.

I will be back later to see if there are any more longs I missed and if there are any shorts I might want to poke.

Sunday, May 01, 2005

Three more longs that I like for swing trades

After updating IBD Your Weekly Review, 100, and Where Big Money Flowing, I have come up with three long swing-trades: