Tuesday, June 30, 2009

The Second Quarter Ends with a Thud as Indexes Notch a Day of Distribution

The second quarter ended in bleak fashion as institutional investors were busy selling holdings. A drop in consumer confidence didn't help stocks as higher oil prices and economic uncertainity were major factors for the drop. There wasn't many places to hide on Tuesday, except for leading stocks. The NYSE indexes suffered heavy volume selling throughout much of the day only to see late day support. Over on the NASDAQ volume was subdued for much of the day until the last 5 minutes when a rush of volume hit the NASDAQ. Quarter end window dressing was nowhere to be found on Tuesday. With the quarter end behind the market and earnings season upon us it'll be important to see the market see some accumulation.

As it stands now the Dow Jones Industrial average is leading the way with 5 distribution days. Although 5 is a high number the Dow is a lagging index and its distribution days are minor not major ones. The S&P 500 has seen 4 distribution days but like the Dow its distribution days are minor. What I am focused on is the leading index which happens to be the NASDAQ and it only has 2 days worth of distribution. Remember, it is quite normal to see distribution show its face when the market has made an uptrend. We'll need to see the big institutional players step up and begin operating on the long side buying up quality growth stocks.

A positive market internal today was the advancers versus the decliners. One would assume the number of decliners would have outpaced the number advancers Tuesday, but this simply wasn't the case. The market actually saw the number of advancers edge out decliners. Not typical action of a major distribution day. In addition the number of New Highs versus New Lows continue to be very positive. The ratio was nearly 10 to 1, hardly the bearish action you'd expect. Adding to the positive internals was the put/call ratio jumped over 1.07 showing fear crept back into the market. Fear is always a necessity when keeping an uptrend intact. Market internals certainly dampen the distribution seen in the market today and tells us strength still lives.

As the third quarter begins it will be interesting to see how the market will react. More importantly, July 1st will set the tone for the market for the coming weeks. A few questions will be answered and the biggest one will be if the "big boy" institutional players will step up and accumulate stocks or will they continue to sit on the sidelines? After tomorrow we can assume Wall Street will take an early start to the holiday weekend kicking of festivities early. Until then, make sure you reign in your laggards by cutting losses short and keeping strength. Keep positive and stay focused!

"The point is not so much to buy as cheap as possible or go short at top price, but to buy or sell at the right time." - Jesse Livermore

my personal top longs the past three months UP TODAY: VOCL 133% PARD 74% ACTG 46% CRAY 63% VVTV 52% SIGA 58% DDRX 28% CHLN 85% PALM 76% SPPI 41% GOK 48%

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Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Volume Slips Across the Board as the NASDAQ and S&P 500 End Higher

The market shrugged off news from the FOMC meeting as well as the 5 year Treasury auction today. However, the big institutional money stayed on the sidelines as volume slid from Tuesday's action. Ben Bernanke and the FOMC decided to "do nothing," favoring the status quo over "change." Initial reaction from the market was negative but it did find its footing. There were a few tense moments where the market did look like it was about to crater, but support came to the rescue. Lacking volume, this market continues to look more on the weak side than the strong side.

Big stock leadership did not overwhelm the market with great price and volume action today. Although, some leadership did recover at key moving averages. They were few and far between, but still there. What is concerning is the lack of conviction on upside moves these big stocks have. Today we saw far too many big stock leaders move higher in price but in lower trade. This type of action is letting us know there isn't conviction to the upside and the path of least resistance for these stocks is beginning to turn lower. The big stocks are very good indicators of what is to come for the market and if they decide to run lower our market swill follow their lead.

Once again the market will be paying attention to the 7 year auction to be held Thursday. This time the attention might not be as keen as it was with the two year auction held on Tuesday. Traders are now conditioned to think the 7 year auction will go off without a hitch as the two year and 5 year notes were successful auctions. Although it will be interesting to watch the market reaction, it is nothing we are going to be basing buy and sell decisions off of.

The lack of big stock leadership and the low volume on the exchanges has me quite worried what we are about to run into. From the March lows to our most recent high in the June the NASDAQ has run almost 50% without any pull back whatsoever. The Shanghai index from its late October '08 low to its most recent high in June the index has run 76%. However, in mid-February to the first week in March the index corrected nearly 18%. For a few weeks that pullback has allowed the index continue its uptrend. It is about time we have our market take a break to allow this uptrend to continue its march higher. Unfortunately, it well remain unseen and we'll need our big stock leadership to start gaining more support.

While this market continue to be under pressure it is wise to err on the side of caution rather than try to be a stock market hero. Keep positive and your losses small.

top longs/(shorts) with total returns making me money TODAY: AVNR 103% CAST 48% ACTG 32% COOL 36% ANV 37% SNIC 42% VVITV 87% TRIB 22% VVTV 42% PWAV 76% KAD 56% TXIC 51% STEC 206% WPRT 45% VIT 79% MTMC 207%

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Monday, June 22, 2009

Commodities and Technology Crumble Weakening Leadership and the Overall Market

By Market Speculator

Once again Crude Oil took a major blow Monday as well as other commodity prices. The IMF revised its growth causing panic in the World Recovery thesis. Technology stocks also took a tumble Monday as investors were fleeing technology names. Stocks were simply sold today as sellers wanted to cut loose at all costs. Closing at the lows of the day is a signal that sellers are in full control. Leadership has been showing weakness for the past two weaks and is finally beginning to weaken further at an alarming rate. Very nasty action today on the indexes as the market is now in correction mode.

Big stock leadership is always a great barometer for the market. Big insitutional players love the liquidity and low beta these stocks have. The price and volume action of these stocks are very important because it displays the mentality of the big institutional player. We have seen the big stock leadership crack a bit last week but that crack widen today. Two big stocks that have performed well in this market uptrend put in very ugly days. Gold and Platinum subscribers are aware of the ones I am referring to as I posted in our forums about the stocks. This is not that time to be fighting the market trend here, do not be a hero.

Big news this week as far as news is concerned. Most notably is the $104Bn Treasury auction set this week with a 2 year Treasury auction set to start tomorrow. Stocks wil be eyeing these auctions very carefully as they will signal the whether or not buyers have confidence in the United States Treasury. In addition to the Treasury auction is the Federal Reserve rate decision set to close on Wednesday. Many expect them to keep rates as is but it will be the wording of their statement that will be scrutinized. It is a given the market will react to news events this week. At this point, the market is signaling CAUTION ahead.

Leading stocks are simply worn out and have begun to roll over. On Friday, many leading stocks held key moving averages but volume was very light on Friday. Although it wasn't a glaring "signal" they were headed for trouble, but it was a clue trouble might lay ahead. Seeing today's action, you can not ingore their action. They are not healthy whatsoever and we are certainly not going to argue with their price and volume action.

Tread carefully in this market as it is giving us caution signals. Keep your eye on the ball and your losses small.

top longs/(shorts) w/ total returns since purchase making me money TODAY: VOCL 44% TRIB 24% CRTX 23%///TSTR 30% KAD 49% (CYT 65%)

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Sunday, June 21, 2009

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Slips with Crude Oil While the NASDAQ Remains the Leading Index

by Market Speculator

Friday saw a quadriple witching day pushing volume well above Thursday's level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had slipped lower closing just short of a distribution day. Over on the NASDAQ, the composite index witness a day of accumulation. However, during the session the indexes were not able to hold the opening move. Sellers took over after the morning frenzy of option traders closing/rolling their positions. Only the NASDAQ was able to close above in its upper range for the day, but barely closing above its upper range. More importantly, leading stocks once again showed strength many of the leaders saw positive action. It is clear the NASDAQ is the leading major index and has positioned itself to continue it's move higher.

We are certainly seeing a lot of positive action in leading stocks. There is also very nice action in a few big cap stocks. Institutions love playing large liquid stocks and we are certainly seeing the accumulation by the big boys. At Big Wave Trading, we are saying on top of these leading stocks and taking advantage of the gains they are showing us. Leadership is the number one factor to take a look at when reviewing the entire market. They will light the path the market will take.

Highlighting a secondary indicator is the ratio of New Highs to New Lows. Only 5 new lows were hit on the NYSE and NASDAQ while 75 New Highs were hit. Although we aren't seeing a massive amount of new highs the ratio indicates there is much more positive action than negative.

Something else to highlight is the percentage of stocks over their 20dma, 50dma, and 200dma. On a short-term bases only 46% of stocks are over their 20dma compared to 59% a month ago. Again, at the moment there are 73% of stocks over their 50dma while 81% were a month ago. Short-term, it appears we have yet to reach a point where stocks are oversold and we have seen a nice pull back in stocks. Only the 200dma has more stocks over it now than a month ago: 72% versus 52%. Even these levels aren't near record levels like we saw in late 2007.

It certainly would be nice to get a few more weeks of sideways or basing action in the market. This will allow for leading stocks to continue to work on consolidating into tight patterns rather than forming wide, loose faulty bases. We have seen a few leading stocks breakdown from wide loose patterns causing many people to be pushed out of the stock. The more basing action we get from the indexes the more time it allows for leadership to continue to pound out sound tight price patterns.

Happy Father's Day to all the Dad's out there, we hope you enjoyed a great day with your family.

Keep positive and always remember to keep those losses short. At Big Wave Trading, we'll continue to enjoy the gains our stocks are showing us.

top longs w/ total returns since 1st buy making me money: TRIB 20% DPW 37% ISTA 78% ADAT 20% AVNR 97% FIRE 46% CAST 57% PALM 47% CRAY 39% CLRT 30% ATSG 67% ARST 34% INSM 32% PONE 26% COOL 37% RBY 61% ACTG 30% KONG 79% ANV 37% SIGA 36%///GOK 40% TXIC 63% ESIO 23% PWRD 74% WPRT 41% RAD 174% INSM 58% ATSG 27% PONE 37% TSTR 28% JADE 26% RODM 41% CFW 37% JOEZ 29% PWAV 88% PRC 41% WPCS 41% FREE 47% CYCC 26% TMR 25% EPEX 93%

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Friday, June 19, 2009

Volume Eases Across the Board as NYSE Indexes Ended Higher

by Market Speculator

Thursday's stock market was quite a bore, even with the Philadelphia Fed reading came above the expected number. The reading showed contraction but far less than expected, suggesting things aren't as bad as they may appear. Stocks took notice and jumped higher, but could not hold the highs. From the highs stocks bounced around in lackluster fashion. News from the treasury market still isn't good the Treasury Department announced its largest ever auction. Bond prices fell as investors once again are fleeing the treasury market, not in fear of inflation but the massive amount of supply coming on the market. The market took little notice and continued its lackluster trade. Overall, the market was taking a breathier as options are set to expiry tomorrow.

On the positive side the NASDAQ was able to consolidate its gains from Wednesday's session. On the other hand the S&P 500 rose on lighter volume suggesting buying action on the index wasn't supported by institutional players. Remember, we need to see volume coming into stocks to show strength with a move higher. Without volume, the move quite possibly could turn out to be a headfake. Clearly the NASDAQ is much better behaved and the leading major index.

Leading stocks were largely untouched, displaying support at key moving averages. It is of the utmost importance we begin to see well rounded bases with proper accumulation. At the moment there are plenty of choppy bases without sound price patterns indicating we are in a choppy market. We could remain in a choppy market for awhile, but it'll be leading stocks giving us the signals whether or not the choppy action has ended. Remember, tight price action is ALWAYS an indication of strength and you should be paying attention.

Tomorrow's option expiration day can always add an element of surprise. Volume can either be normal, like any other Friday or it can be quite large distorting the overall movement of the market. Usually, volume from options expiry shows up at the beginning of the day's trading session. We'll know from the start if volume is coming into the market via options or regular buying. Investors Business Daily compares hourly volume from the day before and is a great way to see where volume is coming into the market.

We are still charging forward with this market, taking what we can get from it. Keeping focused and positive we are able position ourselves in the right position to extract gains. Always remember to keep your losses small!

top longs w/ TOTAL returns since 1st buy making money TODAY: INSM 29% ISTA 78% CLRT 25% ACTG 20% ADAT 22% CAST 46% AVNR 71% SIGA 35% DPW 21%///CVGW 21% TXIC 55% PARD 41% GOK 32% PTN 66% STEC 206% JOEZ 29% PWAV 85% WPCS 41% CSIQ 46% VIT 72% EPEX 90% PMI 87% RAX 134% CFW 32% CKEC 51%


Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Stocks Take Another Dose of Distribution While Leaders Continue to Send Mixed Signals

For the second straight day in a row stocks were hit again with another day of distribution. The selling wasn't as fierce as it could be as volume lagged behind Monday's level for much of the morning. When selling took over it was then volume began to pick up the pace to surpass Monday's level. Stock market leaders once again flashed mixed signals, but the more we see these leaders fall the more troublesome the market becomes. We did see two leading stocks perform well but there wasn't enough upside leading stocks to outweigh the damage being down on the flip side. Leading stocks and the price and volume action are telling us this market looks to be choppy in nature in the trading days ahead.

The sloppy price action going on in the stock market leaders is not positive. Tight price action is a signal of strength while sloppy price patterns are a signal of weakness. The past few trading sessions we have seen very sloppy price and volume action from our leading stocks. It began last Wednesday when we saw our leading stocks begin to fail key moving average areas. Now, we have yet to see support come into these stocks to make a stand and show that they have the strength to move higher. Unless support comes in soon the leaders that are standing may not be for long.

Back to back distribution days are never a health sign either. However, volume is still below the 50dma suggesting selling is tame for the moment. It starts with the price and volume action of the leaders then it moves onto the indexes. At the moment, we are seeing the actions of the leaders finally showing weakness in the indexes. Now the market is flashing large CAUTION signs at the moment. It is wise to be taking profits and cutting loose stocks that have wild price swings. As I stated above, choppy price action is a sign of weakness not strength. We have already seen with a few leaders what happens when a stock displays choppy price action.

If we do end up rolling over we'll be on top of getting into shorts. We still have some long signals but at the moment this market is mixed at best. Until we get decisive one way or another we won't be plunging to either side. Remember, continue to keep a positive attitude and make sure you keep your losses extremely small. It is also wise to reign in some of your positions to protect you from any further downside. Stay focused and nimble!

top longs/(shorts) w/ TOTAL returns since 1st purchase making me money TODAY: PALM 52% ANV 40% KONG 79% CLRT 25% ISTA 72% THM 25% MRGE 41% PARD 43% TEN 22% CSIQ 33% RAX 124% KAD 61% RAD 208% RODM 34% EPEX 96% SOLF 44% SOL 83% ALTU 76% PONE 31% (CYT 61%)

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Crude Oil and Precious Metals Lead the Market Lower as Volume Rises

Sellers stepped up to the market's doorstep today as commodities took another hit. Crude oil and precious metals led the market lower as the US Dollar rallied. Volume increased from Friday's level but finished below its 50dma suggesting the selling was far from panic selling. More importantly many leaders were able to find support at key moving averages but a few were hit hard. The market did see a lift near the close but is was far from a strong close like we have seen in the past. Nonetheless, the day was not a positive day for the market but wasn't damaging enough to end this uptrend.

The market might be teetering on the brink of another decline, but it was positive to see many leaders find support at their moving averages. So long as these leaders hold these areas and do not continue to break down this uptrend will remain in tact. It is important that the market leaders stay afloat as it will be the tell of the market. Selling can not continue in the market leaders and it will be important that we pay attention to them. If we can see buying interest show up for the market leaders look for the rest of the market to follow through on the buying.

If you are carrying losses greater than 5% at the moment you must take a look at your purchases. Most likely you are getting in the game too late. It will be important for you to cut those losses fast as they can turn into MAJOR losses rather quickly. The number one way to protect yourself in a market moving sideways waiting to break in either direction is keeping your losses small. By doing so you'll keep your powder dry in the event the market moves higher and you can jump into the leading stocks.

We are in limbo as the market looks a bit tired, but at the same time all signs are not pointing down. There are pockets of light. It is the outmost importance that you maintain a positive attitude and a bright outlook for your future. As my mom and grandmother would tell me "postitive things happen to positive people." In a way it is a self-fulfilling prophecy. I am a firm believer in keeping a positive, can do attitude in the market to keep you afloat and in the game.

I am certainly in the "wait and see" mode as we can break either way. If the leaders are sold off once again, then we'll be waiting for another follow-through day to occur. On the flip side if the leaders get support it'll keep this most recent uptrend in tact. Regardless, we'll be on top of the market in either direction.

Remember to always keep your losses small and to keep a positive attitude. There is nothing more important than your emotional balance in the market. Otherwise you could lose your stake. Stay focused and positive!

top longs/(shorts) w/ TOTAL returns making me money on MON: SIGA 45% ATSG 63% ISTA 59% AVNR 61% CYCC 30% SOL 78% PONE 27% PTN 25% RODM 32% ALTU 73% ACAS 27% NAVI 47% GLUU 22% NAVI 47% ACAS 27% ALTU 73% SURG 35% (CYT 60%)


Sunday, June 14, 2009

A Late Day Surge Lifts Stocks by the Close of the Day as Volume Indicates Wall Street Started the Weekend Early

by Market Speculator

In front of the market was elections in Iran and new threats being made by North Korea. Despite this potential negative news stocks were able to get a lift at the end of the day by a flury of buying. Much of the day volume had been tapering off much below Thursday's level as stocks sank. Stocks didn't much selling pressure to drive down prices. Showing institutions weren't selling off their holdings in a hurry, a positive sign for this uptrend. On the downside, many leading stocks were hit hard throughout the day. The late day surge did cover up most of the damange done by the selling. Friday's market session was an indication a market which is showing signs of basing.

A few leading stocks suffered damage, a few of them were not able to hold their 10dma. During powerful uptrends leading stocks will often find support at their 10dma and continue their march higher. The action seen on Friday is a more of an indication we are not quite ready to see leading stocks continue their march higher. Not all leading stocks suffered, many of them did find support at their 10dma. The ones that did not did find support at their 21dma and 50dma. Positive signs were all around the market Friday but they were in the price and volume action of the leading stocks.

In John Boik's Monster Stocks he noted in his research that leading stocks in an uptrend will often find support at their 21dma and never fail. Once failures begin at the 21dma for market leaders it is a sign the market has nearly reached to the top of its run. Although we've seen some leading stocks take hits we have seen a majority find support at their 21dma.

Volume on the indexes as mostly dried up over the past two weeks. On the Russell 2000 volume dried up this week as the index found support and closed within 1% of last weeks close. Tight closes are a sign of strength and is very important to spot these to take note of the strength. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed within 1% of their prior weeks close. This is a clear sign of positive consolidation for the market and should be clearing the way for quality growth stocks to setup sound price patterns.

Keep positive and never give up. Cutting losses short will only keep you in the game longer and your powder dry for opportunties the market may present to you in the future.

top longs/(shorts) w/ TOTAL returns since 1st buy making money TODAY: PALM 54% LPSN 20% COOL 43% ABVT 27% ARST 40% AVNR 36% ASCA 20% INOD 23% CLRT 25% ADAT 27% (CYT 59%)

top longs for PLAT members w/ TOTAL returns since 1st...TODAY: GOK 57% XTIC 64% CHDX 40% SNIC 70% JADE 56% BAA 52% PONE 26% AHD 26% CKEC 69% IRE 109% WSCI 29% JOEZ 37% RODM 29% GIII 37% PWAV 101% WH 36% CDII 37% APL 83%

FREE YOUTUBE VIDEO: My video technician is in Las Vegas and therefore the FRI and MON video will not be posted to YouTube till TUE. Video 1, 2, 3, and 4 are available for Gold and Platinum members. If my video technician gets a chance to upload them, I will post them here. Subscribers nothing will change for you.

Friday, June 12, 2009

Sellers Jump in Late to Knock Down Stocks from Their Highs but Hold Gains

By Market Speculator

Late day selling brought the indexes back to their lows of the day settling just above them. Retail sales figures spooked traders sending the retail sector lower. On the other side, crude oil rose to $73 as the commodity continued its trek higher. Mounting pressures from rising yields as well as higher energy costs weighed heavily on the market overall. Leading stocks did not participate in the move higher marking a second straight day of underperformance. Volume came in just above Wednesday's levels but was lower than its 50dma suggesting the past few sessions institutions have largely stayed on the sidelines. Taking a fifty thousand foot view of the market; we are still in an uptrend with not many distribution days and we should continue to see the uptrend hold.

The leading stocks took a step back on Thursday, taking a rest from recent gains. Although it would be ideal for the leading stocks to move higher every day it is simply impossible to do. At the moment, many of them sit above or on their 10dma an area of support. If the leading stocks can hold these moving averages it'll be a sign of strength and something we will continue to pay close attention to.

Every night I review leaders and all the market indexes. This gives me a great view of the market and putting the pieces together which are necessary to determine how the market is doing. Interestingly enough I have been paying close attention to the IBD indexes. The IBD 100 has been heading sideways for quite some time and has lagged the overall market. However, taking a step back you'll notice the awfully nice tight price action happening in the IBD 100. It appears as if the index itself is preparing for a move higher, above its 200dma no less. This is an area where I will be paying close attention to in the coming days to see whether or not these leading stock indexes can muster up the strength to penetrate the 200dma.

Having a sound game plan is always the best course of action and cutting your losses should be top priority in your game plan. It is an important tool to save your account from utter disaster and keeps you in the game.

Enjoy your weekend.

top longs w/ TOTAL returns since 1st buy making money TODAY: PALM 42% CRAY 35% ARST 36% CAST 43% ACTG 22% ANV 36% ISTA 58% ATSG 65% RAD 28% RBY 55% CLRT 25% THM 31% (CYT 56%)

top longs FOR PLAT MEMBERS ONLY w/ TOTAL returns...TODAY: CHDX 30% GOK 53% ENT 38% TEN 25% JADE 53% KAD 63% IPCS 65% PRC 52% WPCS 51% PTN 21% TMR 34% AHD 20% PXLW 38% WPRT 56% PONE 21% RAD 234%

FREE YouTubeVideo:

I rarely EVER take some time off but you know what? With as much money as my picks are making others, while I sit and try to figure out what I am doing wrong, I figure it is only fair for me to take some mental time off and just post items to my PLAT chat room, GOLD forums, and SILVER longs. The free stuff can be put on hold for a day. I'll be back with my regular postings on Friday. Thank you for letting me have sometime off of this VERY tiring market. I work too hard--way too hard!

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Another Late Day Rally Lifts Stocks Off the Bottom but Notch a Distribution Day

by Market Speculator

After gapping higher at the open sellers took over the market sending stocks lower throughout much of the day. Fueling selling was another hiccup in the Treasury Auction as yields once again moved higher. Fears over the credit quality of the United States and inflation is sending Treasury holders to demand higher yields. Crude oil didn't help matters as the commodity hit $71 a barrell. In the face of this bad news buyers stepped up late and turned into what would have been a major distribution day into a minor distribution day. Once again, we are seeing underlying strength even when it appears the market is about to break to the downside.

Taking a look at New Highs vs New Lows only 8 New Lows were made on the NYSE and NASDAQ. More than 116 New Highs were made during today's session. The only way to view this is in a positive light. Remember, ultimately two things are needed: price/volume and leadership. New Highs vs. New Lows are simply a secondary piece of information that we can use to analyze the market. However, it will never trump the importance of leadership and price/volume action.

Today our quality growth stocks failed to get the same lift as the overall market did. Although the overall market action was positive the action from leaders was not as good. By no means is this a serious flaw or we the "SELL ALL SIGNAL" should be set it is something that should be noted. We need quality growth stocks leading the market and today was a sign that we may still have a few kinks in the armor to work out.

We are 13 weeks into this confirmed market rally and have seen junk-off-the-bottom (jotb) stocks lead this market higher. I continue to reiterate the 1938 market because it is highly correlated to the current market. It took over 3 months for leadership to emerge as leadership for the 1938 summer rally. In terms of the 1938 rally we are just in the early part of what potentially could be a nice rally continuing.

Remember to keep your losses short and your eye on the ball.

top longs w/ TOTAL returns since purchase making money TODAY: CHLN 56% ISTA 58% KONG 85% ACTG 21% ANV 36% CYOU 22% FIRE 65% CAST 37% COOL 44% THM 22% RBY 41%

top speculative longs for PLAT members w/ TOTAL returns...TODAY: RAD 221% ANPI 190% PWAV 101% FCS 82% CMRG 77% CSUN 57% SNIC 67%(3 DAYS) GOK 48% KAD 61% JADE 44% PRC 37% TMR 22% RODM 38% CSIQ 50% SOL 49%

FREE YouTube Video to help you analyze the market CORRECTLY:

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Ten Banks Repay TARP Funds as Quality Growth Stocks and the NASDAQ Take the Lead

Quality growth stocks and the NASDAQ took over leadership today as volume rose on the NASDAQ but pulled back on the NYSE. Volume on the NASDAQ ran higher all day long showing the price action had institutional support. Even more important quality growth stocks emerged once again as leaders in the market. Over on the NYSE volume was tempered by the financials as ten banks are set to pay back TARP money. Reaction was mixed from the banks as it was mostly priced into the market. Overall, notch another positive day for the market.

It was very nice to see quality growth stocks stepup and take over leadership as we need these stocks continue to lead us higher. We have seen a few quality stocks that passed their pivot points on volume. Being able to spot these winners and get in them is what this game is all about. In addition, getting the leaders with size, meaning your position size is a substantial part of your portfolio. For example: if you put on a 1% position, in order for your portfolio to grow 1% that position needs to move 100%. However, having a 10% position to grow your portfolio by 1% all you need is a 10% gain. Remember, this will only work if you are cutting your losses short. By not doing so, you run the risk of completely destroying your trading capital. Position sizing is important when you are in a confirmed uptrend with quality growth stocks are at the helm.

Highlighting cutting your losses, every successful stock market operator always cut their losses short. Many pros often times will cut a position with only a 3% loss. I for one will use anywhere between 3% and 8% cut loss. It is the "art" of managing your portfolio. Factors such as how leading stocks are acting, the overall market, and how the position is acting all go into factoring where I will cut a stock loose. Remember, you are trading to make money, not lose it. The most important part regarding managing your portfolio is cutting your losses short and being prepared to get into a leader.

All positive action occuring in the market with quality growth stocks leading and positive ratios such as the NH vs NL. More importantly, we are seeing excellent opportunities to get long stocks that are the leaders and we are not missing out.

Keep your eye on the ball and stay nimble.

top longs w/ TOTAL returns making money TODAY: ORS 22% AVNR 54% CHLN 48% ISTA 51% SIGA 55% ANV 32% KONG 85% COOL 39% ADAT 25% ASCA 31% ABVT 31% PALM 34% CAST 30% CRAY 30% NAK 21% FIRE 44% ARST 36% NGD 27% CLRT 25% RBY 33%

top speculative longs off the bottom TOTAL returns making money TODAY: TELK 45% RODM 32% CSUN 37% CSIQ 48% IPCS 61% CFW 61% GRRF 87% PWAV 98% AHD 21% TXIC 26% SOL 43% VIT 35%

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Monday, June 08, 2009

Late Day Support as Stocks Pull Back for the Second Consecutive Day on Lighter Volume

by Market Speculator

Wall Street was a ghost town as volume limped well below Friday's level all day long. As stocks opened lower selling took hold, but selling was well contained as stocks found support throughout the day. It was a bullish sign for the second straight day to clear overbought conditions that existed from last weeks run. Bulls took control at the end of the day pushing stocks near the highs of the day at the close. Once again showing the underlying strength in the market. Another great day of consolidation giving stocks time to digest the recent gains.

The level of New Highs continues to outpace New Lows, again underlining the strength of this market. Remember, we need to have the NH vs. NL ratio in our favor to get Monster Stocks. Monday saw 115 new highs while only 13 stocks made new lows. Quickly doing the math that is nearly a 10 to 1 ratio of NH vs. NL. An impressive ratio considering the market ended on the downside.

Leading stocks were somewhat mixed today lagging the overall market. Taking a look at most of the leaders they found support and closed in the upper range of the day. Typically, we want leaders to always lead and never lag the overall market. We'll be paying attention to these leaders as to how they will act in the coming days. It is quite obvious we'd like them to regain their composure and lead the market higher.

Interestingly enough small caps, who have been leading the major indexes over the past few trading sessions lagged the overall market just like leading stocks. Again, we'll need to keep an eye on how the Small Cap indexes perform making sure they do not continue to lag the overall market.

The stock market can be a viscious game to be played. Often times, though, it is the individual themselves who destroy their own accounts. Being able to adapt and evolve over time will allow you to stay in the game. William O'Neil and his portfolio managers learned this leason in 1999 when many internet stocks were flying high without earnings growth. In reality, they had the best price action without the earnings. Missing the run up in many of these internet stocks would have left you high and dry but not William O'Neil's portfolio managers. Being able to identify an edge in the market is one thing exploiting it is another.

There isn't much out there that is screaming we should be going lower. At this point, given what is in front of me this market should continue its uptrend. Distribution has tailed off and is non-existent at this point and we still have leadership. Until any of this changes, we'll continue the march onward and upward.

Stay focused and nimble.

Sunday, June 07, 2009

The SP600 And Nasdaq Lead The Indexes Higher On Friday; Leading IBD Indexes Are Finally Leading The Overall Market

I had a wonderful weekend enjoy this beautiful island of Maui. I don't plan on being here for too many more years and whenever weekends like this come along I AM going to enjoy them. To not would be damn foolish.

I work over 12 hours every day making sure that you are making the money you see below in our current longs and to do that I need my down time. This weekend, despite all the fun I had, I got all my work done for subscribers. However, those of you that come here to see what I have to say this weekend will only be greeted with this: it is a bull market you know. That is about all I can say that hasn't been said ad-naseum. Market Speculator has echoed my thoughts on this page all week and most of you are in tune with the market trends. That is great news.

However, if you continue to face problems in the stock market, then that means you are doing something wrong. If you are having problems making consistent money, do not have any set rules, and/or can not seem to hit any home runs, you are not alone. Many people have these issues but at BigWaveTrading.com the rules we advocate come directly from the rules that IBD has put out for everyone called CANSLIM. For those of us that know how to use this methodology the market has not been as difficult as the talking schmucks on TV make it sound.

The most important thing to remember is that they DO NOT have YOUR best interest in mind. The ONLY person who has YOUR best interest in mind is YOU. That means that if YOU DO NOT know how to make the big money on YOUR own in the stock market you can pretty much guarantee NOBODY is going to make it for YOU. I am a big advocate of running your own money. The only time you should not is if you have NO TIME AT ALL. If you have time, you should be running YOUR OWN money no matter how much you don't like it.

The world has changed and Americas best days are behind it thanks to the decline in morals, the entitlement society, and the get-even way of life where everything must be "fair" for everyone. This is very close to COMPLETELY KILLING the entrepreneurial spirit of America. The good news for those of us with some money is that we can get the hell out of here and move to Asia where those nations are EMBRACING those that can create wealth for their societies. Countries like China realize that the rich create jobs for the poor and help give the poor a higher quality of life. I don't know what the HELL HAS HAPPENED with the country I am from but I am darn near close to writing this country off. Unless we turn around I don't see how we are EVER going to have a NON-inflationary rally where real wealth is created instead of printed paper money.

I am bullish right now because I follow trends. However, even though I am bullish on the market for now I still have some key questions. Why are my CANSLIM stocks not setting up in quieter bases? Why do I STILL!! not have any "perfect/hot" setups in my speculative longs like I have in EVERY MEANINGFUL rally I have EVER been a part of? These are very important questions because without another round of breakouts after a consolidation pattern, I am pretty sure I am not going to get my "perfect/hot" setups. Truth is when they don't show up the rallies don't last long. I am very skeptical a real bottom has shown up.

Don't forget also that just because the 50 DMA has crossed above the 200 DMA on the Nasdaq that the all-is-clear signal has sounded. Instead, the 50 must cross an UPTRENDING 200 DMA for it to be automatically bullish. Since that is not the case now with the 200, we will need to see prices move along, pullback to the 50 dma, and then have prices rally again. This should then put the 200 DMA into an uptrend and if the market pulls back and test that line then AND ONLY THEN will we be in a TRUE bull market. Without my "perfect/hot" setups and the overall market indexes in the proper pattern with the moving averages, there is simply no reason to think that this is nothing but a bear market rally.

What also makes me think this is a bear market rally? The idiots at the government keep saying the "turn has come." Really assholes? Really? You are the same MORONS that missed the whole 2008 collapse. The last time I checked not one damn analyst expected the market to be higher. Yeah, sure, I trust you guys now! Sure!

Nah, instead, I think I'll take my chances with my charts. As you can see below they appear to be working and that is a good thing. The problem is that unless I focus on CANSLIM longs only, it is really a crap-shoot and it is difficult to guess which long is going to go up near 100% in a short amount of time. It used to be easy to tell based on the "hotness" of the chart. But nowadays I can't find any "hot/perfect' charts so a lot of stocks are making moves that simply have no pattern to them. Sometimes really nice chart patterns work, sometimes they do not. Then sometimes ugly breakouts work and then they don't.

I still honestly believe that this is the hardest market environment ever and this is coming based on past experience. If this was a real bottom, I am pretty sure I would be holding a few longs up over 100% and more than likely one or two of those kind of stocks would have perfect chart patterns. Right now, it seems like fantasy, that these stocks will ever show up again. As you can see in my 'past big winners' they showed up EVERY YEAR in multiple places over-and-over in bull market trends. Then, even in some bear markets, you could find a few. Those hot chart patterns just don't show up anymore, for now. I have a big feeling this is due to the quality of market participants involved in the year 2009 compared to the market participants that were involved in 1996.

Things have changed and change is HORRIBLE! This "change" has led to a very choppy, wild, and to be honest not that much fun of a market environment. I am used to making HUGE gains on hot charts and that used to be a lot of fun. Now I find I have to work my ass off just to barely beat the market. To do that I have to focus on CANSLIM stocks. While nothing is wrong with that, it was the CANSLIM stocks mixed with the "HOTTIES" like LMLP in 99 or HIL in 03 that really allowed me those huge gains of the past. Without that speculative splender I just don't know if we are going to see those kind of gains ever again IN THIS COUNTRY.

I am pretty sure my future lies somewhere in China. Take a look at this chart and see if that doesn't sound like a BRILLIANT idea. Remember everyone, for those of you who "poo-poo" history that no matter what you want to "feel" or "believe" in the truth is that ENTITLEMENT SOCIETIES DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE! WAKE UP AMERICA. YOU ARE ALMOST DEAD!!

PS: Don't mistake INFLATION or HYPER-INFLATION with a new bull market. Did you see Zimbabwe's stock market the past five years? You should see how amazing it did!!!! Do you think that stock market rally was good or bad for the country? Do you see how a rising stock market is bad when it is on the back of EVIL inflation that is controlled by our government? I sure hope you do. We need more people to wake the hell up to what we are trying to create in the name of "fairness." Fairness gives you Zimbabwe. Once again I ask you if the rally in Zimbabwe was "awesome" or if it was a tell to how sad and depressing this once great African nation has become. Is this what we want?

The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (the ZSE) is the best performing stock exchange in the world, the key Zimbabwe Industrials Index up some 595% since the beginning of the year and 12,000% over twelve months. And yet, the country is crumbling (4/10/07). Ever since President Mugabe's disastrous land-reform campaign (an entire article in itself), the country's farming, tourism, and gold sectors have collapsed. Unemployment is said to be near 80%.

God! Isn't socialism wonderful. :( :( :(

I don't think so. Sometimes a rising stock market is NOT bullish and is instead telling "look out the S is about to hit the fan on the inflation front." It makes me wonder if that is the kind of rally we are in now. It appears that if it wasn't I would be making more money and more "perfect" charts would be stetting up and breaking out from pattern that I have been accustomed to that produces huge gains. Maybe this next consolidation phase the market is under will unleash it.

A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largess from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years.

Great nations rise and fall. The people go from bondage to spiritual truth, to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency, from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependence, from dependence back again to bondage.

top longs with total returns since 1st purchase making money TODAY: KONG 85% ATSG 73% SIGA 55% COOL 40% RAD 42% ARST 37% CAST 28% ADAT 26% CRAY 26% AVNR 22%

top longs with total returns since 1st purchase from the PLATINUM Forums making money TODAY: RAD 270% GRRF 85% CMRG 86% CSIQ73% CFW 74% IPCS 61% WPCS 48% TELK 48% KAD 38% JADE 30% VSR 38% CSUN 20% ENT 21%

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Friday, June 05, 2009

Pushing Aside Dismal Economic News Stocks Advance in Higher Volume

Thursday's morning release of economic news did not show signs of a recovery for the US economy. This didn't stop stocks from getting support. It wasn't long after mid-morning stocks began to show signs of life. Volume on the NASDAQ ran hot throughout the day while NYSE volume was running a bit behind. A late day move in stocks helped stocks close out on the highs of the day. The bullish move at the end of the day highlighted the bullish nature of this market.

Leading stocks kept pace with the NASDAQ, but it was Small Cap stocks that took the lead. It is important to see leading stocks ahead of the major indexes. From a historical perspective, Small Cap stocks always lead the market. At the moment, Small Caps and Leading stocks are taking over leadership.

The crowd got bullish again with the AAIIBull index topped 46% while the AAIIBear index slid to 38%. A few weeks back AAII published a note stating 45% of those who were surveyed were not invested in equities. The highest amount EVER recorded by the AAII. Are those investors not invested in the market willing to come back in? This most recent rally will certainly have those not in the market itching to get back in. In addition, will equity funds see inflows from investors to put to work in the equity market? Big questions have yet to be answered but by the price and volume action of this market it appears they are putting cash to work.

Do not get caught up in the "why," why are we moving higher? Does it matter or does that we are moving higher that matters? Too often many investors are caught up in the "why" rather than taking action. All the time spent on the "why" will leave you without the time to study and find the stocks that are moving this rally. One of my favorite expressions: "it is what it is" plays nicely here. Remember, you can only control your own actions and not action of others. Focus on what is important, control your own actions and forget the "why" to CNBC.

Tomorrow morning we have the long awaited May Jobs report from the US government. The first Friday of every month is always a delight for CNBC as they bring in expert guests to talk about a number that no one can predict. Anything near or higher than -500k jobs lost will surely spark the bulls interest and bid up stocks. Especially retail stocks as they weighed down the market today. Any sign of further weakness in jobs lost we might see stocks ticker lower. More importantly it'll be how the entire week wraps up on the close Friday. It isn't until then can we make a rational thesis from the day.

Remember, always keep those losses small and come aboard to Big Wave Trading if you aren't already a member.

Enjoy your weekends and be safe.

top longs/(shorts) w/ FULL returns since purchase making $ TODAY: KONG 85% ATSG 69% PALM 44% ISTA 40% SIGA 52% CAST 28% CFL 20% CLRT 24% AVNR 21% RBY 33% ADAT 23% CRAY 21% ANV 30% RAD 36%

top speculative longs off the lows for PLATINUM members: GRRF 82% CSIQ 72% IPCS 60% GOK 68% ETWC 42% RUS 51% TMR 34% GRO 25% OSCI 38% PXLW 35% WPCS 46% RODM 31% CFW 33% TELK 39% BAA 29%


Wednesday, June 03, 2009

A Late Day Surge Off the Lows Paints the Day Bullish as Stocks Pull Back in Lighter Trade

By Market Speculator

Taking a breathier, stocks pulled backas the market digests the most recent move. Stocks did touch overbought conditions and it didn't come as a surrpise the market put in a day of consolidation. During the last 30 minutes of trading stocks found a bid and moved off the lows near the opening levels. A move like this shows institutions stepped in late in the day to support their stocks. Again, it was an important sign to see the support come into the market as the day wrapped up. The market action is showcasing that the bulls are in charge and ready to continue the uptrend.

Leading stocks held up quite nicely today as many of them fell back on lighter trade. It is important to see leading stocks hold up when the overall market pulls back. This is another sign of strength when you have leading stocks pulling back but not leading the market to the downside. It will be important for this type of action to continue; support for the leaders must remain for this uptrend to have legs.

In economic news, we have the May jobs report due out Friday morning at 8:30amEST. Today the ADP report showed more than 500k jobs were lost in the month of May. CNBC once again will have breaking news on the subject, but this rally isn't being fueled by an economic recovery. This rally is simply built upon the printin of greenbacs by Big Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve. Simply pumping money into the system will do little to create any sort of recovery as the money is being funneled into non-functional assets. If the money was beeing spent on performing assets we'd have a diffeerent ball game.

Pointing out the New High vs. New Low raio again the market saw only 6 new lows today. Six new lows on a day where the market pulled back quite substantially and the market only saw 6 new lows. This is extremely helpful to see this as it means even when the market sells off we aren't seeing it as weakness. The moves lower are looking stronger and more constructive. Rather than blasting to to new lows we are really seeing some strength. There were 104 New Highs made today, a very positive sign for this market.

We continue to make great gains in this market and will continue to do so. If you aren't already a member of Big Wave Trading, why aren't you? While you wait, we'll continue to load up on our winners.

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Holding Gains Stocks End Higher as Leading and Small Cap Stocks Lead the Way Higher

by Market Speculator

Once again stocks stage another bullish trading session. It was important that stocks did not reverse course and give up a sizeable amount of gains from Monday and prior Friday's sessions. Even more important is that we have leading stocks taking center stage and the reigns from junk off the bottom stocks. Intraday action was not volitile as we have seen it from last week. Much of the day we spent in higher ground and avoided any nasty sell off heading into the close. All around a positive day for the market and signs we are poised to continue to march higher.

We have plenty of members in the chat room who are taking advantage of this market. As we begin to rotate into quality growth stocks they will offer up the ability to get long in a big way. Are we there yet? Not quite, but we might be closer than many believe we are. Big Wave Trading members will certainly be taking advantage of the opportunities these quality growht stocks may provide.

Aside from positive price and volume action the number of New Highs vs. New Lows. Remember, for Monster Stocks to show up we need a positive NH vs NL ratio. Today, 162 new highs were made while only 26 new lows were hit. Removing the New Lows from the AMEX only 5 new lows were hit, a very positive sign indeed. Keeping in mind the massive bear market we witnessed it took quite awhile for New Highs to really start pounding on New lows. Not too mention during the 1938 rally it took over 3 months for sound leadership to take hold from the bottom. We may be entering into a sweet spot in this rally.

The most important aspect of this uptrend is that we have the IBD indexes leading for the second day in row. Of course, it will take much more than two days but nonetheless we need the IBD indexes to lead. We are no almost 3 months into this rally and we are beginning to see signs of leadership. Reviewing the 1938 market rally there was an excellent opportunity to make money. Strike while the iron is hot because if we follow the 1938 market it took another 3 1/2 years to find another bull market. We shall see but the market in front of us might yield us an excellent opportunity.

As always, remember to keep your losses short and never let them to have the chance to grow.

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Monday, June 01, 2009

Following Through on Friday's Gains Stocks Stage Another Rally on Strong Volume

by Market Speculator

From the opening bell to the close stocks were being accumulated in a big way. Volume once again soared showing institutional support is behind stocks. We even saw quality growth stocks bust out and show tremendous strength. It was very important for the stock market to follow through with very nice gains after Friday's close. The action from stocks today is showing there is more room to run to the upside. Leaders have emerged to show quality is where the action will be at and the time is now to get on board with them. Leadership has taken hold and the overall price and volume action of the market is signalling this market wants to roll higher.

An important occurance happened today and that was the price and volume action following through from Friday's gains. It would have been terrible for stocks to roll over and essentially would have signaled the market wasn't going to move higher. Although we could have moved sideways in lighter trade today's session was much more favorable. Today proved institutions are willing to put their capital to work in stocks. Not only are they willing to put this capital to work they are supporting the quality growth stocks. We absolutely need institutional support for this market to go higher and we are seeing capital flow back into stocks.

There are quality growth stocks leading this market, a true sign of market strength is its leadership. We are beginning to see the type of stocks where you can build a sizeable position. Jesse Livemore, Jack Dryfus, William O'Neil and other great traders were able to plunge into the leaders and extract as much as their run as they could. There are these types of stocks out there at this moment that will allow us the opportunity to get long in size. It is getting long in size that will have a great effect on your overall portfolio performance.

Keeping in mind we have our backside to protect. We can not remember to cut our losses in cases where a stock is not acting right or its triggering a cut loss area. Generally speaking an 8% cut loss is an excellent area to look at. However, professionals are able to tighten up their cut loss to where sometimes it can be as low as 3%. It takes years and trading in the market to be able to know when a stock is not acting right and it is best to part ways.

A mistake many traders make is giving up on a stock once they have cut their loss. Some times stocks will give a buy signal and fail to continue to move higher and go on to form another base. It is important that if the fundamental growth picture hasn't changed to not give up on a stock just because it failed the first time. Many times some of these do come back and offer up great opportunities to get long. There are a few examples of these happening now. Our platinum members got a glimpse of these last night during a discussion with Joshua and I. Keeping your watchlist up to date is very important in your trading arsenal.

A very positive day in the market, now it is time to take advantage of the opportunities that lie ahead. Big Wave Trading and its members are certainly enjoying and will enjoy a move higher.

top longs w/ TOTAL returns since purchase making money TODAY: KONG 84% ATSG 76% FIRE 48% SIGA 48% ASCA 41% PALM 34% CAST 33% WAVX 31% ADAT 27% ISTA 25% ARST 29%

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