Stocks exploded to the upside on Thursday as dovish talk from the Fed's policy statement helped stocks stage a rally. The Nasdaq rallied a whopping 2.96%, the SP 500 rallied 2.16%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 1.98%. The big winner was the SP 600. That index rallied 3.42%! Very nice.
Volume was much higher than the day before and well over the 50 day volume average. That gave us a resounding follow through on the market. Before all my charts were updated I was worried volume was not high enough and that this might be weak because it was day 12 of the rally. But volume was in fact fine. Breadth was over 4-to-1 positive on both exchanges.
There has been plenty of talk about this rally and the Fed's dovish statements after hiking rates again for the 17th straight time to 5.25%. I am more interested in this rally for the lack of HOT sectors leading. The usual bear market leaders are leading in this rally and that is not very positive to me. Now, if the nice charts that I see out there spend more time building right sides and then breaking out I will be happier. Until then I still feel that this rally is just a typical late summer rally that will not have legs. However, I understand how bearish the AAII numbers and II numbers got. It got very bearish out there, quickly.
The rally we have now confirmed today has produced a lot of good charts but back in March 2003 when we started this whole thing I had a TON of charts with very sound and early stage bases. These stocks appearing on my scans are well extended from previous runs and are in late stage bases. The medical, transportation, food stocks are not. But those stocks are not leaders that change the world with their products.
Even back in October 2005 you will remember I was bullish during the downtrend. Why? Because there were not that many charts breaking down. This downturn there were a lot and now those broken down former leaders and denfenisive sectors are rallying the most in this rally. That just doesn't seem long term bullish for me.
However, for the short term, we have NO CHOICE but to be bullish. So I have put on my horns, paired back over 85% of my shorts that were still on and placed a lot of buy orders in stocks with nice charts. Still though I am disappointed there are not more sound chart patterns with no to few flaws. Most of these charts have flaws.
No market rally has ever started without a follow through day like we got today. But this does not guarantee a long rally. Look at all the rallies we got from 2000-2002. There were plenty. This has the feel of one of those rallies.
I hope I am wrong and this proves to be another start of the further excellent economy that the Bush Presidency has produced since his tax cuts in 2003. If I see more charts in the Semiconductor, Internet, Telecomunication, Software, and Hardware stocks rally then I will completely embrace this rally. But for now I am bullish because I have to be via my charts. I don't like the leaders in this follow-through. Old leaders and defensive issues. Not my kind of rally that I fall in love with.
Hopefully, the technology and innovative issues will continue to build nice right side of their bases and then breakout. If they do I will be more than happy, I repeat. If they do not show up and we can't make much progress on HEAVY volume in the indexes I will go back to looking for shorts in the old leading sectors of the 2003-2006 rally.
Next up earnings season. Great luck out there!
New Swing Longs: UBFO AHS FLAG TRMA BUF RTK MDF SEIC PBNY BMR ALXN CNTY SZE FUR
Adding To Current Holdings: UARM FORR
New Swing Shorts: CLMT
Longs Outperforming: GPIC-29 IHS-48 HSR-71 UARM CTXS-51 PAY-38 SYKE CTCI-58 VLG-35 TSCM-159 LRCX-38 PCLN SKIL EGOV OMNI-177 NWS ABI DDS DGX CXW LYV SABA AKAM-124 GMST ACTG-119 FORR SMSI-95 IDEV HGR BMRN EYE WMG Q-73 TMG FSII RNST GMTC SBIT
Shorts Outperforming Market: BPFH
Stocks On Radar: AEHR LVS KNXA SBUX KOMG WBD BOT EEFT MENT VCP ARDI HIW DRI AMN MRK
Thursday, June 29, 2006
Wednesday, June 28, 2006
Another Low Volume Rally In A Dull Market; We Await The FOMC.
Stocks managed a rebound from yesterday's selling to close in the green. The Nasdaq was up .6%, the SP 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were up .5%, and the SP 600 finished up .2%.
However, volume was lower than yesterday's selling. The low volume rebound still shows investors are selling and not buying. Normally you want to see higher trade on a rally after the selling we saw yesterday.
Now to the topic of the day: the Fed. The FOMC started their two day meeting today and will tell us the decision that they have reached tomorrow. Most people think a 17th straight .25 basis point hike will happen. Others think .50 basis points will be what Ben targets. Either way there will be another hike and that is all we need to know. The other good news about this is that we will not have to talk about the Fed for at least a day or two when next week begins.
Once again, I am not sure what else to add. Nothing has changed from anything I have posted since returning June 20th. The market is still dead. Stay awake, stay positive, and keep those watchlist updated.
I shall see you in Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: NWS FSII WMG
New Swing Shorts: BEAV TPP
Longs Outperforming: OMNI-171 UARM TSCM-150 PAY-31 GPIC VLG-30 CTCI-52 PNRG-65 ABI BWP DDS CXW CTXS-43 HMSY Q-71 FORR IDEV NAII GMTC TIII SBIT
Shorts Outperforming: WSM MNST TRI VCG APOL CRXL USG FRZ JOYG ELY ISCA SOMX GTRC BBBY APD
Stocks On Radar Screen: PENN OATS DHIL NICK KR
However, volume was lower than yesterday's selling. The low volume rebound still shows investors are selling and not buying. Normally you want to see higher trade on a rally after the selling we saw yesterday.
Now to the topic of the day: the Fed. The FOMC started their two day meeting today and will tell us the decision that they have reached tomorrow. Most people think a 17th straight .25 basis point hike will happen. Others think .50 basis points will be what Ben targets. Either way there will be another hike and that is all we need to know. The other good news about this is that we will not have to talk about the Fed for at least a day or two when next week begins.
Once again, I am not sure what else to add. Nothing has changed from anything I have posted since returning June 20th. The market is still dead. Stay awake, stay positive, and keep those watchlist updated.
I shall see you in Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: NWS FSII WMG
New Swing Shorts: BEAV TPP
Longs Outperforming: OMNI-171 UARM TSCM-150 PAY-31 GPIC VLG-30 CTCI-52 PNRG-65 ABI BWP DDS CXW CTXS-43 HMSY Q-71 FORR IDEV NAII GMTC TIII SBIT
Shorts Outperforming: WSM MNST TRI VCG APOL CRXL USG FRZ JOYG ELY ISCA SOMX GTRC BBBY APD
Stocks On Radar Screen: PENN OATS DHIL NICK KR
Tuesday, June 27, 2006
Nasty Selloff On Heavier Volume Puts Further Pressure On Attempted Rally.
Stocks fell across the board on Tuesday, with the SP 600 down 1.6%, the Nasdaq down 1.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.1%, and the SP500 down.9%. The big loser of the day was the Semiconductor Index. That index fell 3.75% on the session. A very nasty selloff. There was not a major market sector that escaped the selling.
Volume rose across the board, giving indexes another distribution day. This is another negative notch on the rally attempt that started on June 14. The only consolation is that volume is still below the 50 day volume average. However, selling like this after the weak bounce is very negative for the short-term.
The rally attempt is still technically alive but it is just barley breathing and I don't expect the lows to hold. However, only time will tell.
Speaking of time; that is all we have. The trade has been random and choppy intraday as we await the FOMC meeting to finish up on Thursday. Right now it is all up to the Fed. Until they tell us .25 basis points or .5 basis points, the market is just being held hostage by Ben.
Stay patient, calm, and keep cash ready for that perfect moment. We may not be near it yet but it is still wise to stay patient and not overtrade while we deal with the choppy and random negative market environment out there.
I shall see you tomorrow. Great luck out there.
New Swing Longs: DGX
New Swing Shorts: TV IWV PD SM APD TIE
Longs Outperforming: HSR-59 CTCI-49 OMNI-156 LRCX-32 ABI VLG-28 HMSY PNRG-63 PAY-28 FVE
Shorts Outperforming: SIVB SWC JOYG BPFH USG ELY ASA TMO DIA EWY CLF DB ILF AMAT FCX IYM EWZ RTP RF STLD RS ATI MNST RES UAG TRI AVID LZB MEOH ZRAN OCAS UNS WDR DFG FLA WABC MAFB BTH IKN FIX NAL APOL GPI FRZ ISCA SOMX BBBY GTRC KRI CTCO
Stocks On Radar Screen: LCAPA
Volume rose across the board, giving indexes another distribution day. This is another negative notch on the rally attempt that started on June 14. The only consolation is that volume is still below the 50 day volume average. However, selling like this after the weak bounce is very negative for the short-term.
The rally attempt is still technically alive but it is just barley breathing and I don't expect the lows to hold. However, only time will tell.
Speaking of time; that is all we have. The trade has been random and choppy intraday as we await the FOMC meeting to finish up on Thursday. Right now it is all up to the Fed. Until they tell us .25 basis points or .5 basis points, the market is just being held hostage by Ben.
Stay patient, calm, and keep cash ready for that perfect moment. We may not be near it yet but it is still wise to stay patient and not overtrade while we deal with the choppy and random negative market environment out there.
I shall see you tomorrow. Great luck out there.
New Swing Longs: DGX
New Swing Shorts: TV IWV PD SM APD TIE
Longs Outperforming: HSR-59 CTCI-49 OMNI-156 LRCX-32 ABI VLG-28 HMSY PNRG-63 PAY-28 FVE
Shorts Outperforming: SIVB SWC JOYG BPFH USG ELY ASA TMO DIA EWY CLF DB ILF AMAT FCX IYM EWZ RTP RF STLD RS ATI MNST RES UAG TRI AVID LZB MEOH ZRAN OCAS UNS WDR DFG FLA WABC MAFB BTH IKN FIX NAL APOL GPI FRZ ISCA SOMX BBBY GTRC KRI CTCO
Stocks On Radar Screen: LCAPA
Monday, June 26, 2006
Stocks Finish Slightly Higher On An Extremely Boring Low Volume Day.
A late day rally gave stocks a good showing Monday, with the SP 600 leading up 1%, the Nasdaq up .6%, and the SP 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average up .5%.
Volume was lower across the board as the Nasdaq traded its lowest amount of volume this year. I am not sure how that was possible after yesterday's quiet trade but it happened. Breadth was postive on the NYSE by a 5-to-3 margin and postive on the Nasdaq by a 3-to-2 margin.
The relatively good showing by stocks today is pretty much meaningless, in my opinion, with the volume so low. I wouldn't get too excited about this rally attempt yet. We still have not had a follow-through and we are on day nine of the attempted rally. This pretty much assures me that we will not get a historically high odds follow-through on the markets. After day ten, you can pretty much forget about a proper rally unfolding.
This market is still in a dead stand-still until the upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday and Thursday. I have a feeling NOTHING is going to happen between now and then. Just more of the same old random volatile intraday action. If you are a daytrader, this is the perfect opportunity to scalp some quick cash. If you are a true power hitter (CANSLIM investor), this is the time to stay on the sidelines.
What else do you want me to say? If you have any questions feel free to post them at Investors Paradise on my stocks or market forums.
New Swing Longs: AEPI
New Swing Shorts: CTCO SYK
Longs Outperforming Market: IHS-33 TSCM-156 HSR-51 SYKE FCBP PCLN CTCI-44 VLG-26 DDS PNRG-62 ABI CXW OMNI-146 EGOV BWP CBEY-31 OPTV-25 BMRN FVE HGR TYL CVO-106 USEY
Shorts Outperforming Market: ELY ASA WSM CE RTP RS RES GPI FRZ BBBY KRI
Stocks On Radar Screen: LBIX
Volume was lower across the board as the Nasdaq traded its lowest amount of volume this year. I am not sure how that was possible after yesterday's quiet trade but it happened. Breadth was postive on the NYSE by a 5-to-3 margin and postive on the Nasdaq by a 3-to-2 margin.
The relatively good showing by stocks today is pretty much meaningless, in my opinion, with the volume so low. I wouldn't get too excited about this rally attempt yet. We still have not had a follow-through and we are on day nine of the attempted rally. This pretty much assures me that we will not get a historically high odds follow-through on the markets. After day ten, you can pretty much forget about a proper rally unfolding.
This market is still in a dead stand-still until the upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday and Thursday. I have a feeling NOTHING is going to happen between now and then. Just more of the same old random volatile intraday action. If you are a daytrader, this is the perfect opportunity to scalp some quick cash. If you are a true power hitter (CANSLIM investor), this is the time to stay on the sidelines.
What else do you want me to say? If you have any questions feel free to post them at Investors Paradise on my stocks or market forums.
New Swing Longs: AEPI
New Swing Shorts: CTCO SYK
Longs Outperforming Market: IHS-33 TSCM-156 HSR-51 SYKE FCBP PCLN CTCI-44 VLG-26 DDS PNRG-62 ABI CXW OMNI-146 EGOV BWP CBEY-31 OPTV-25 BMRN FVE HGR TYL CVO-106 USEY
Shorts Outperforming Market: ELY ASA WSM CE RTP RS RES GPI FRZ BBBY KRI
Stocks On Radar Screen: LBIX
Saturday, June 24, 2006
Intraday It Was Fun But Overall It Was Just A Meaningless End To A Volatile Week.
Stocks spent most of the day Friday in a volatile random pattern but ultimately finished unchanged for the day. The SP 600 was the leader up .37%, the Nasdaq fell .07%, the SP 500 fell .09%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was the laggard with a .27% loss.
Volume was lower across the board, giving the indexes the fifth day in a row of extremely dull trade. Breadth was pretty even on both exchanges with decliners just beating advancers by a slim margin.
The low volume and the unchanged close pretty much sums up this week. Dead and quiet. There was and is nothing going on until the Fed meeting is finished on Thursday. News flow is weak and the CNBC talking heads are all over the FOMC meeting already. So that is where the focus is. This is the kind of stuff that puts me to sleep.
I hope everyone is enjoying their weekends. You might want to think of extending them this summer and/or going on a vacation. This market has nothing but defensive stocks leading and if this volume is any indication of what is to come there will not be a lot of action and great opportunities to make big money.
The only positives is it is pretty darn bearish out there and we are oversold. I posted some interesting articles at Investors Paradise and some readers have posted some gems that I am sure will definitely shine some light on the current situation if you are still confused and don't understand what I mean when I say "don't trade this market, stay cash heavy, and go do something fun."
Have a great night and I shall see you tomorrow. Get ready for another boring week. Hopefully, by making that prediction we get some action. The way my portfolio is positioned I am rooting for downside pressure. Aloha!
New Swing Longs: HMSY
New Swing Shorts: KRI ITWO GTRC BDY
Longs Outperforming: PNRG-60 SMSI-94 AOB SYKE UARM FORR VLG-25 CTXS-43 DDS ABI BAM-26 CBEY KNOL-142 USEY OMNI-145 TYL EYE LCC-147 CVO-104
Shorts Outperforming Market: SIVB ELY TMO DIA DB AMAT RF UAG TRI MEOH ZRAN OCAS UNS WDR FLA WABC MAFB BTH IKN VCG NAL APOL SOMX CKXE BBBY
Volume was lower across the board, giving the indexes the fifth day in a row of extremely dull trade. Breadth was pretty even on both exchanges with decliners just beating advancers by a slim margin.
The low volume and the unchanged close pretty much sums up this week. Dead and quiet. There was and is nothing going on until the Fed meeting is finished on Thursday. News flow is weak and the CNBC talking heads are all over the FOMC meeting already. So that is where the focus is. This is the kind of stuff that puts me to sleep.
I hope everyone is enjoying their weekends. You might want to think of extending them this summer and/or going on a vacation. This market has nothing but defensive stocks leading and if this volume is any indication of what is to come there will not be a lot of action and great opportunities to make big money.
The only positives is it is pretty darn bearish out there and we are oversold. I posted some interesting articles at Investors Paradise and some readers have posted some gems that I am sure will definitely shine some light on the current situation if you are still confused and don't understand what I mean when I say "don't trade this market, stay cash heavy, and go do something fun."
Have a great night and I shall see you tomorrow. Get ready for another boring week. Hopefully, by making that prediction we get some action. The way my portfolio is positioned I am rooting for downside pressure. Aloha!
New Swing Longs: HMSY
New Swing Shorts: KRI ITWO GTRC BDY
Longs Outperforming: PNRG-60 SMSI-94 AOB SYKE UARM FORR VLG-25 CTXS-43 DDS ABI BAM-26 CBEY KNOL-142 USEY OMNI-145 TYL EYE LCC-147 CVO-104
Shorts Outperforming Market: SIVB ELY TMO DIA DB AMAT RF UAG TRI MEOH ZRAN OCAS UNS WDR FLA WABC MAFB BTH IKN VCG NAL APOL SOMX CKXE BBBY
Thursday, June 22, 2006
Light Volume Pullback Eats Into A Lot Of Yesterday's Gains; Lack Of Follow-Through Shows Bears Are Still In Control.
Stocks could not muster a follow-through today as the major market indexes gave up a chunk of the gains they made yesterday. The Nasdaq led to the downside with a .85% loss, the Dow Jones followed with a .54% loss, the SP 500 fell .53%, and the SP 600 fell .28%.
Volume was lower on both exchanges, continuing the low volume trend of the last four days. Breadth was negative by a 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 3-to-2 ratio on the Nasdaq.
The failure to produce a follow-through shows how weak the market still is. The only saving point the bulls can say today is that volume was lighter on today's pullback than on yesterday's rally. I say, "big deal." The volume is so much lower than the 50 day volume average that it is obvious to me institutions have nothing to do with this oversold bounce that naturally HAS to happen.
The current action, if nothing else, is just confusing. Trying to be a bull or bear in this market environment right now is just silly. Obviously, now is not the best time to swing for the fences by putting on heavy long or short positions. The market doesn't even know what it is doing.
If the market can not make up its own mind, what makes you think you can outsmart it? I'll give you the answer. You can not. That is why I still say it is best to just relax and not trade here until things are more clear.
Keep scanning your charts and keep your watchlist updated. You never know when a gem will show up here or there that will surprise you with a nice pattern. Those trades are what keeps me awake and active as I wait for the proper conditions to unfold.
Nothing is going to change until after we get the Fed meeting out of the way. Until that happens, we will have to deal with this intraday volatility that whips the market around from day to day but ultimately after a week leaves us unchanged.
Great luck, keep sitting on your hands while keeping your list up-to-date, and keep smiling. I shall see you tomorrow.
New Swing Longs: NONE
New Swing Shorts: FRZ POOL NRGY TOC ISCA SOMX CKXE BBBY
Longs Outperforming: HSR-78 CTCI-44 GPIC ABI PMTR-45 AOB CXW SKIL PAY-35 EGOV LYV CBEY OMNI-136 TMG
Shorts Outperforming: SIVB SWC JOYG BPFH ELY TMO DIA EWY CLF WSM DB ILF AMAT FCX IYM EWZ RTP RF NUE STLD RS ATI MNST UAG TRI AVID MEOH LFC ZRAN OCAS UNS WDR DFG FLA WABC MAFB BTH FIX IKN APOL
Stocks On Radar Screen: ABFS NTGR HOLX XNR
Volume was lower on both exchanges, continuing the low volume trend of the last four days. Breadth was negative by a 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 3-to-2 ratio on the Nasdaq.
The failure to produce a follow-through shows how weak the market still is. The only saving point the bulls can say today is that volume was lighter on today's pullback than on yesterday's rally. I say, "big deal." The volume is so much lower than the 50 day volume average that it is obvious to me institutions have nothing to do with this oversold bounce that naturally HAS to happen.
The current action, if nothing else, is just confusing. Trying to be a bull or bear in this market environment right now is just silly. Obviously, now is not the best time to swing for the fences by putting on heavy long or short positions. The market doesn't even know what it is doing.
If the market can not make up its own mind, what makes you think you can outsmart it? I'll give you the answer. You can not. That is why I still say it is best to just relax and not trade here until things are more clear.
Keep scanning your charts and keep your watchlist updated. You never know when a gem will show up here or there that will surprise you with a nice pattern. Those trades are what keeps me awake and active as I wait for the proper conditions to unfold.
Nothing is going to change until after we get the Fed meeting out of the way. Until that happens, we will have to deal with this intraday volatility that whips the market around from day to day but ultimately after a week leaves us unchanged.
Great luck, keep sitting on your hands while keeping your list up-to-date, and keep smiling. I shall see you tomorrow.
New Swing Longs: NONE
New Swing Shorts: FRZ POOL NRGY TOC ISCA SOMX CKXE BBBY
Longs Outperforming: HSR-78 CTCI-44 GPIC ABI PMTR-45 AOB CXW SKIL PAY-35 EGOV LYV CBEY OMNI-136 TMG
Shorts Outperforming: SIVB SWC JOYG BPFH ELY TMO DIA EWY CLF WSM DB ILF AMAT FCX IYM EWZ RTP RF NUE STLD RS ATI MNST UAG TRI AVID MEOH LFC ZRAN OCAS UNS WDR DFG FLA WABC MAFB BTH FIX IKN APOL
Stocks On Radar Screen: ABFS NTGR HOLX XNR
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
With The Lack Of Leading Stocks With Great Fundamentals Breaking Out, I Am Not Trusting This Move.
Stocks raced higher all day, until the final hour when profit taking reared its head. The SP 600 led the way with a 1.8% gain, followed by the Nasdaq's 1.62% gain, the SP 500s .97% gain, and the Dow Jones Industrial Averages .95% gain.
Volume was higher on both exchanges. However, volume was lower than the 50 day volume average and wasn't that much higher than Tuesday's slow day. Breadth was positive on the NYSE by a 3-to-1 margin and positive on the Nasdaq by a 7-to-3 margin.
The late day selloff combined with the lack of power of the rally in all indexes leads me to my conclusion of not trusting this rally. In a true follow through you normally see all indexes make strong moves over 1.75%, volume much higher than the 50 day volume average, and you always see a lot of nice bases/breakouts in leading stocks with good fundamentals. We had none of those today. No way can I even consider this a follow-through day. We are simply in day six of the attempted rally.
However, per my post yesterday, we are having an oversold bounce. Bullishness is at extreme lows on all surveys and bearishness is climbing to highs not seen since 2003. The recent Investors Intelligence shows just as many bears as bulls. Last time that number crossed was in March 2003. This doesn't mean we are going to rally here. The numbers can simply get much worse. But the oversold numbers in all oscillators that market professionals follow signal that we have to relieve the oversold condition. There simply isn't much fresh short-term downside momentum we can muster up. We have to have a failed rally that last a little while to turn the bears into bulls again. Then it is possible we can see further downside. There are a lot of ugly charts out there and very few nice ones.
The Fed is still out there next week so I expect the same kind of crazy volatility we have been seeing intraday, for the time being.
Keep a smile on your face, trades small, and keep cash heavy. Don't trust the bottom callers out there. You know who you are.
Have a great night. I shall see you tomorrow
New Swing Longs: CNU BARI
New Swing Shorts: ENDP SFC CNC
Longs Outperforming: HSR-63 PAY-34 SYKE LRCX-35 RNST CTXS-42 TSCM-143 DDS SMSI-88 FORR BAM-27 PCLN ABI CTCI-39 WST SKIL SHLD EGOV UARM BWP FCBP GISX OMNI-120 AKAM-110 BSML RAE SMDI-154 LCC-138 USEY EYE ACTG-117 SMST CVO-104 Q-65
Shorts Outperforming: GPI NAL MAFB WABC ELY AVID UNS
Stocks On Radar Screen: CME KNOT SWFT IMNY
Volume was higher on both exchanges. However, volume was lower than the 50 day volume average and wasn't that much higher than Tuesday's slow day. Breadth was positive on the NYSE by a 3-to-1 margin and positive on the Nasdaq by a 7-to-3 margin.
The late day selloff combined with the lack of power of the rally in all indexes leads me to my conclusion of not trusting this rally. In a true follow through you normally see all indexes make strong moves over 1.75%, volume much higher than the 50 day volume average, and you always see a lot of nice bases/breakouts in leading stocks with good fundamentals. We had none of those today. No way can I even consider this a follow-through day. We are simply in day six of the attempted rally.
However, per my post yesterday, we are having an oversold bounce. Bullishness is at extreme lows on all surveys and bearishness is climbing to highs not seen since 2003. The recent Investors Intelligence shows just as many bears as bulls. Last time that number crossed was in March 2003. This doesn't mean we are going to rally here. The numbers can simply get much worse. But the oversold numbers in all oscillators that market professionals follow signal that we have to relieve the oversold condition. There simply isn't much fresh short-term downside momentum we can muster up. We have to have a failed rally that last a little while to turn the bears into bulls again. Then it is possible we can see further downside. There are a lot of ugly charts out there and very few nice ones.
The Fed is still out there next week so I expect the same kind of crazy volatility we have been seeing intraday, for the time being.
Keep a smile on your face, trades small, and keep cash heavy. Don't trust the bottom callers out there. You know who you are.
Have a great night. I shall see you tomorrow
New Swing Longs: CNU BARI
New Swing Shorts: ENDP SFC CNC
Longs Outperforming: HSR-63 PAY-34 SYKE LRCX-35 RNST CTXS-42 TSCM-143 DDS SMSI-88 FORR BAM-27 PCLN ABI CTCI-39 WST SKIL SHLD EGOV UARM BWP FCBP GISX OMNI-120 AKAM-110 BSML RAE SMDI-154 LCC-138 USEY EYE ACTG-117 SMST CVO-104 Q-65
Shorts Outperforming: GPI NAL MAFB WABC ELY AVID UNS
Stocks On Radar Screen: CME KNOT SWFT IMNY
Tuesday, June 20, 2006
Boring Day Leaves Stocks Mixed As Volume Falls.
Stocks didn't do much today as traders appear to be doing what I was doing last week (taking a vacation) or are just out watching the World Cup. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up .3%, the SP 500 was flat, the Nasdaq was down .16%, and the SP 600 led the way down with a .47% decline.
Volume was lower today and was the second straight day of extremely low volume. This emphasizes the point I was making above that traders are simply not at their desk. Breadth was negative on both the NYSE and Nasdaq with decliners over advancers by a 9-to-7 ratio.
This was a boring day, without a doubt, and the gains that we seemed to have near the end of the day was wiped out by a wave of selling into the closing bell. This helped stocks finish near the sessions lows. This action is not indicative of a bullish tape.
However, while I was gone I covered many shorts that I took early in the selloff. Covering anywhere from 25-75% of stocks down 20% or more, was the safe play to make as I am starting to see signs that this selloff is nearing a short-term completion.
The oscillators that I follow are all at extreme lows seen near other bottoms. The market vain bullish numbers are at levels not seen since November 2003 right before a year end rally. The Investors Intelligent numbers show 38% bulls and 34% bears. Folks that is close to crossing. It is not often we have more bears than bulls with those numbers. When we do, a bottom is near. The AAII also shows bullishness at levels not seen since the March 2003 bottom.
Does this mean that we are going to rally into years end? No. It just means that the downside momentum is probably nearing its end. When the whole crowd is this bearish, it means that the majority of the sellers have sold and are now in the crowd that reflects there most recent actions. If these bulls in the downtrend are now selling, who is left to sell?
This action is boring and tiring. Trust me, I know. I can feel it too, even though I have not been chatting. I still had to manage my portfolio and scan my stocks. Trust me, IT IS BORING. This always bothers traders more than any other kind of market. But it is this kind of market you need to navigate through to make sure you have what it takes to do this for a living. If you can make it past this dead action, you will be twice the trader/investor you were before the downtrend started. This too shall pass.
I hope everyone did well while I was gone. It looks like another boring week is ahead for us as we wait the FOMC decision on rates next week. Keep your head up, have fun with your loved ones during this listelss action, and go do something fun!
Have a great day, I will see you tomorrow.
New Swing Longs: USEY
New Swing Shorts: GPI APOL NAL
Longs Outperforming: VLG-28 PSPT GPIC AOB ABI PAY-28 PCLN FCBP TSCM-138 DDS BWP IHS-31 WST ACTG-112 HGR BSML RAE IDEV EYE
Shorts Outperforming: Later
Stocks On Radar Screen: ILC
Volume was lower today and was the second straight day of extremely low volume. This emphasizes the point I was making above that traders are simply not at their desk. Breadth was negative on both the NYSE and Nasdaq with decliners over advancers by a 9-to-7 ratio.
This was a boring day, without a doubt, and the gains that we seemed to have near the end of the day was wiped out by a wave of selling into the closing bell. This helped stocks finish near the sessions lows. This action is not indicative of a bullish tape.
However, while I was gone I covered many shorts that I took early in the selloff. Covering anywhere from 25-75% of stocks down 20% or more, was the safe play to make as I am starting to see signs that this selloff is nearing a short-term completion.
The oscillators that I follow are all at extreme lows seen near other bottoms. The market vain bullish numbers are at levels not seen since November 2003 right before a year end rally. The Investors Intelligent numbers show 38% bulls and 34% bears. Folks that is close to crossing. It is not often we have more bears than bulls with those numbers. When we do, a bottom is near. The AAII also shows bullishness at levels not seen since the March 2003 bottom.
Does this mean that we are going to rally into years end? No. It just means that the downside momentum is probably nearing its end. When the whole crowd is this bearish, it means that the majority of the sellers have sold and are now in the crowd that reflects there most recent actions. If these bulls in the downtrend are now selling, who is left to sell?
This action is boring and tiring. Trust me, I know. I can feel it too, even though I have not been chatting. I still had to manage my portfolio and scan my stocks. Trust me, IT IS BORING. This always bothers traders more than any other kind of market. But it is this kind of market you need to navigate through to make sure you have what it takes to do this for a living. If you can make it past this dead action, you will be twice the trader/investor you were before the downtrend started. This too shall pass.
I hope everyone did well while I was gone. It looks like another boring week is ahead for us as we wait the FOMC decision on rates next week. Keep your head up, have fun with your loved ones during this listelss action, and go do something fun!
Have a great day, I will see you tomorrow.
New Swing Longs: USEY
New Swing Shorts: GPI APOL NAL
Longs Outperforming: VLG-28 PSPT GPIC AOB ABI PAY-28 PCLN FCBP TSCM-138 DDS BWP IHS-31 WST ACTG-112 HGR BSML RAE IDEV EYE
Shorts Outperforming: Later
Stocks On Radar Screen: ILC
Monday, June 19, 2006
Sunday, June 18, 2006
On Vacation June 13-20
New Swing Longs: UARM FCBP IDEV BSML
New Swing Shorts: DFG FLA WABC MAFB BTH FIX IKN VCG
On Radar Screen: MIKR BRLI SUMT
New Swing Shorts: DFG FLA WABC MAFB BTH FIX IKN VCG
On Radar Screen: MIKR BRLI SUMT
Wednesday, June 14, 2006
On Vacation
On vacation from June 13-20
New Swing Longs: NONE
New Swing Shorts: SCHK
Longs Outperforming Market: HSR OMNI-110 WST SMSI-75 Q-63 ABI DDS CVO-103 GIS MGLN FORR
Shorts Outperforming Market: ELY BPFH WSM ASA TMO RF ERIE MRK OCAS WDR TRI AVID LZB
Stocks On Radar Screen: CRV
New Swing Longs: NONE
New Swing Shorts: SCHK
Longs Outperforming Market: HSR OMNI-110 WST SMSI-75 Q-63 ABI DDS CVO-103 GIS MGLN FORR
Shorts Outperforming Market: ELY BPFH WSM ASA TMO RF ERIE MRK OCAS WDR TRI AVID LZB
Stocks On Radar Screen: CRV
Tuesday, June 13, 2006
Oversold Momentum Continues To Thrash Longs.
NO MARKET COMMENTARY AS I AM ON VACATION
New Swing Longs: NONE
New Swing Shorts: OCAS VTRU UNS WDR
Longs Outperforming Market: WST CTCI-31 IHS-31 RNST BAM-30 DDS SKIL ABI PCLN BMRN
Shorts Outperforming Market: Later
Stocks On Radar Screen: HRZ
New Swing Longs: NONE
New Swing Shorts: OCAS VTRU UNS WDR
Longs Outperforming Market: WST CTCI-31 IHS-31 RNST BAM-30 DDS SKIL ABI PCLN BMRN
Shorts Outperforming Market: Later
Stocks On Radar Screen: HRZ
Monday, June 12, 2006
Bottom Callers Continue To Look Foolish; Trapped Longs Bail, Ending The Rally Attempt.
The rally attempt that some market participants have gotten all excited about has, shockingly, failed. This, of course, is no surprise to the individuals who paid attention to the stock market indexes distribution days in the beginning of May. The rallies that have followed after that swoon has been on volume much lower than the downtrend.
The losses got bigger, on Monday, with the SP 600 falling 2.45%, the Nasdaq falling 2.05, the SP 500 down 1.27%, and the DJIA falling .91%.
Volume was higher across the board, adding another distribution day to this downtrending bear market. Breadth was very negative with decliners over advancers by a 3-to-1 margin on the NYSE and a 4-to-1 margin on the Nasdaq.
There are only so many ways I can say what I have been saying for the past month. The selling hasn't stopped since the market has topped and the mood is finally starting to turn negative. But it still isn't time. It will be one day but it will not be this week.
The only wise thing to do is to take a step on the sidelines and wait this out. If you can keep the money you have instead of trading it away, you will have more capital to put to work when the sea of red stops and the bull is unleashed again. Somehow, I don't think that is going to happen till at least August. The damage to individual stocks and the indexes suggest the markets have a lot more pain or sideways trade to go through.
Which leads me to an important point. Don't buy a stock just because you "think" it is a bargain. Bargains can get cheaper and they usually do. You will NEVER know where the bottom is. So stay patient in cash and wait for the bull to start again so you can have the odds back on your side. Just like we had from the October-May rally or better yet the March 2003 rally. The stocks that breakout to new highs from nice patterns first after this bear market will provide plenty of gains to make up for all the hand sitting.
Ok, this is the time of the year when I open up my copy of "Reminiscenses of a Stock Operator" and take a mini-vacation--I have done this every year, since I moved to Maui. This book is simply the greatest book I HAVE EVER read. Reading this book every year refreshes me on the principals it takes to become one of the greatest traders in the world.
This market is not going to do anything during this week and on that note I am not going to do anything either for the next five market sessions. I am taking a break from writing this market commentary. However, I will find time to update my positions and new longs and new shorts.
My plan was to write on this blog for free for three years before turning it commercial. So far so well. This will be my first break from here, since I started this blog in March 2005. I think I deserve it. This isn't the kind of market I like chatting about anyways. Constant dread isn't my bag baby! That is for Barry Ritholtz.
I will be constantly dropping in at Investors Paradise. So if you only read my blog, you are going to be missing a lot. I am only taking a break from the commentary.
New Swing Longs: NONE
New Swing Shorts: LFC ZRAN MEOH LZB BSC
Longs Outperforming Market-number is % gain since long: CTCI-29 FMD EYE SBIT
Shorts Outperforming Market-number is % gain since short: SWC-25 CRXL-24 USG-23 MNST-21 CLF-19 JOYG-18 ILF-16 EWZ-15 ASA-14 WSM-14 NVT-13 EWY-12 NUE-11 RS-11 ELY-9 DB-9 RTP-9 CE-8 STLD-8 IYM-7 ATI-6 SIVB-6 BPFH TMO DIA AMAT RF MRK ERIE UAG TRI AVID
Stocks On Radar Screen: NU MVC
The losses got bigger, on Monday, with the SP 600 falling 2.45%, the Nasdaq falling 2.05, the SP 500 down 1.27%, and the DJIA falling .91%.
Volume was higher across the board, adding another distribution day to this downtrending bear market. Breadth was very negative with decliners over advancers by a 3-to-1 margin on the NYSE and a 4-to-1 margin on the Nasdaq.
There are only so many ways I can say what I have been saying for the past month. The selling hasn't stopped since the market has topped and the mood is finally starting to turn negative. But it still isn't time. It will be one day but it will not be this week.
The only wise thing to do is to take a step on the sidelines and wait this out. If you can keep the money you have instead of trading it away, you will have more capital to put to work when the sea of red stops and the bull is unleashed again. Somehow, I don't think that is going to happen till at least August. The damage to individual stocks and the indexes suggest the markets have a lot more pain or sideways trade to go through.
Which leads me to an important point. Don't buy a stock just because you "think" it is a bargain. Bargains can get cheaper and they usually do. You will NEVER know where the bottom is. So stay patient in cash and wait for the bull to start again so you can have the odds back on your side. Just like we had from the October-May rally or better yet the March 2003 rally. The stocks that breakout to new highs from nice patterns first after this bear market will provide plenty of gains to make up for all the hand sitting.
Ok, this is the time of the year when I open up my copy of "Reminiscenses of a Stock Operator" and take a mini-vacation--I have done this every year, since I moved to Maui. This book is simply the greatest book I HAVE EVER read. Reading this book every year refreshes me on the principals it takes to become one of the greatest traders in the world.
This market is not going to do anything during this week and on that note I am not going to do anything either for the next five market sessions. I am taking a break from writing this market commentary. However, I will find time to update my positions and new longs and new shorts.
My plan was to write on this blog for free for three years before turning it commercial. So far so well. This will be my first break from here, since I started this blog in March 2005. I think I deserve it. This isn't the kind of market I like chatting about anyways. Constant dread isn't my bag baby! That is for Barry Ritholtz.
I will be constantly dropping in at Investors Paradise. So if you only read my blog, you are going to be missing a lot. I am only taking a break from the commentary.
New Swing Longs: NONE
New Swing Shorts: LFC ZRAN MEOH LZB BSC
Longs Outperforming Market-number is % gain since long: CTCI-29 FMD EYE SBIT
Shorts Outperforming Market-number is % gain since short: SWC-25 CRXL-24 USG-23 MNST-21 CLF-19 JOYG-18 ILF-16 EWZ-15 ASA-14 WSM-14 NVT-13 EWY-12 NUE-11 RS-11 ELY-9 DB-9 RTP-9 CE-8 STLD-8 IYM-7 ATI-6 SIVB-6 BPFH TMO DIA AMAT RF MRK ERIE UAG TRI AVID
Stocks On Radar Screen: NU MVC
Friday, June 09, 2006
The Most Boring Trading Day I Have Witnessed In At Least A Year.
Bulls continue to show that they have no staying power, as trapped longs are selling on any short-term uptrend. A positive opening, like normal lately, gave way to a disappointing close. The internesting thing about the close was how close to the same % drop the indexes suffered. I guess I am a stock market nerd but I am not sure the last time all closes were this close.
The Sp 600 led the way to the downside with a .49% loss, the Nasdaq fell .48%, the SP 500 fell .45%, and the DJIA fell .43%. Pretty cool, if you ask me. Ok, now I know I have gone too far. :)
Volume was extremely lower across the board. As I said above in my title, it was the most boring day I have seen in a long time that was not holiday trading related.
Decliners outpaced advancers on both exchanges, with the NYSE having a 6-to-5 negative margin and the Nasdaq with a 3-to-2 negative showing.
It was a negative week for stocks, with the SP 600 falling the worse with a 4.5% loss, the Nasdaq down 3.8%, the DJIA down 3.2%, and the SP 500 down 2.8%. The bounce attempted near the end of May failed this week and the nice reversal we saw on Thursday didn't have much follow through on Friday.
All of this suggest what I have been saying constantly; and that is to stay cash heavy and don't trust any bounce after such a swoon that had a commodity stock bubble in it. These markets need time to work themselves out.
There is nothing out there of any quality working. All the stocks that are working are ALL in the defensive areas. These kind of stocks do not take leadership in a normal pullback. With these stocks coming to the forefront, I am afraid that I don't see much upside anytime soon.
The best thing to do right now is take a vacation, catch up on some exercise, watch some great movies, and stay very patient. You should also be checking up on the market because you NEVER know when it will turn. Normally, it is when you least expect it. But it doesn't happen this quick after a REAL top so I don't think I have anything to worry about next week.
Keep up to date with your charts and watch the ones that don't pullback that much and don't selloff on heavy volume. When the market is ready to turn, these could be the next batch of leaders. So ALWAYS keep scanning your charts. Just make sure you don't buy anything because you "think" it is a "bargain."
Stay positive and keep a smile on your face. This too shall pass.
ALOHA!
New Swing Longs: FMD ALTH WWWW--for more info on longs/shorts go to Investors Paraidse.
New Swing Shorts: TRI AVID
Longs Outperforming Market: GIGM-183 TSCM-152 SMDI-131 ACTG-99 KNOL-150 FSTR HSR-56 ICTG-82 BAM-32 PSPT SYKE ASPV PCLN ATRO PAY-45 NNDS AKAM-88 BWP EGY COGO-53 DDS LRCX-29 CBEY AOM MGLN EYE
Shorts Outperforming Market: USG-22 SWC-20 CRXL-20 CLF-15 MNST-14 FCX-14 ILF-13 ASA-13 WSM-12 EWY-11 NVT-11 JOYG-10 EWZ-10 ELY SIVB BPFH DB TMO DIA CE AMAT IYM RTP STLD RS ATI UAG RES MRK
Cover Short: CG
Stocks On Radar Screen: PWX WILC SCL
The Sp 600 led the way to the downside with a .49% loss, the Nasdaq fell .48%, the SP 500 fell .45%, and the DJIA fell .43%. Pretty cool, if you ask me. Ok, now I know I have gone too far. :)
Volume was extremely lower across the board. As I said above in my title, it was the most boring day I have seen in a long time that was not holiday trading related.
Decliners outpaced advancers on both exchanges, with the NYSE having a 6-to-5 negative margin and the Nasdaq with a 3-to-2 negative showing.
It was a negative week for stocks, with the SP 600 falling the worse with a 4.5% loss, the Nasdaq down 3.8%, the DJIA down 3.2%, and the SP 500 down 2.8%. The bounce attempted near the end of May failed this week and the nice reversal we saw on Thursday didn't have much follow through on Friday.
All of this suggest what I have been saying constantly; and that is to stay cash heavy and don't trust any bounce after such a swoon that had a commodity stock bubble in it. These markets need time to work themselves out.
There is nothing out there of any quality working. All the stocks that are working are ALL in the defensive areas. These kind of stocks do not take leadership in a normal pullback. With these stocks coming to the forefront, I am afraid that I don't see much upside anytime soon.
The best thing to do right now is take a vacation, catch up on some exercise, watch some great movies, and stay very patient. You should also be checking up on the market because you NEVER know when it will turn. Normally, it is when you least expect it. But it doesn't happen this quick after a REAL top so I don't think I have anything to worry about next week.
Keep up to date with your charts and watch the ones that don't pullback that much and don't selloff on heavy volume. When the market is ready to turn, these could be the next batch of leaders. So ALWAYS keep scanning your charts. Just make sure you don't buy anything because you "think" it is a "bargain."
Stay positive and keep a smile on your face. This too shall pass.
ALOHA!
New Swing Longs: FMD ALTH WWWW--for more info on longs/shorts go to Investors Paraidse.
New Swing Shorts: TRI AVID
Longs Outperforming Market: GIGM-183 TSCM-152 SMDI-131 ACTG-99 KNOL-150 FSTR HSR-56 ICTG-82 BAM-32 PSPT SYKE ASPV PCLN ATRO PAY-45 NNDS AKAM-88 BWP EGY COGO-53 DDS LRCX-29 CBEY AOM MGLN EYE
Shorts Outperforming Market: USG-22 SWC-20 CRXL-20 CLF-15 MNST-14 FCX-14 ILF-13 ASA-13 WSM-12 EWY-11 NVT-11 JOYG-10 EWZ-10 ELY SIVB BPFH DB TMO DIA CE AMAT IYM RTP STLD RS ATI UAG RES MRK
Cover Short: CG
Stocks On Radar Screen: PWX WILC SCL
Thursday, June 08, 2006
Intraday Capitulation By Longs Sets Up A Possible Short-Term Rally.
No Commentary for Thursday. It is a Sansei night!
New Swing Longs: EYE NCST RSCR WEBM
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market: MORN CXW HSR-50 IHS-34 SHFL WST RSTI-36 BKUNA CTCI-25 ABI SHLD GISX AXE-32 OMNI-122 FORR GMST SABA MGLN Q-69 LCC-130 SA GPIC SBIT
Shorts Outperforming Market:
Stocks On Radar Screen: VOL LTD GEX
New Swing Longs: EYE NCST RSCR WEBM
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market: MORN CXW HSR-50 IHS-34 SHFL WST RSTI-36 BKUNA CTCI-25 ABI SHLD GISX AXE-32 OMNI-122 FORR GMST SABA MGLN Q-69 LCC-130 SA GPIC SBIT
Shorts Outperforming Market:
Stocks On Radar Screen: VOL LTD GEX
Wednesday, June 07, 2006
Another Fed Governor Offers His Opinion And Stocks Stage An Afternoon Selloff.
Another day of early gains was wiped away again, with the stock market reversing in the afternoon to close near or at the lows of the day. This is about as painfully obvious as can be that this is a bearish market. Constantly reversing intraday to close in the red is not healthy.
The markets basically all fell the same amount. The DJIA fell .65%, the SP 500 fell .61%, the Nasdaq fell .51%, and the SP 600 fell .47%
Volume was lower across the board but the late day reversal came on a pickup in volume. Another negative. Speaking of negative, breadth was negative on both boards today. The NYSE had decliners over advancers by a 5-to-3 margin; the Nasdaq had decliners winning by a 8-to-7 margin over advancers.
The SP-500 has now joined the Nasdaq in trading below its 50 and 200 dma. That is not what you see in a healthy market. Obviously, in a bull market you are not going to be under those key lines. This is another signal to stay on the sidelines and let things play out.
Another constant negative situation playing out is the top industries in IBD's industry list getting pounded. This simply does not happen in a normal pullback. Another thing that doesn't happen in a normal pullback is the rotation of leadership into defensive stocks. Defensive sectors don't go up in a bull market. They go up in a bear market. They are going up.
As each day goes by I keep selling more and more of long my long-term winners. My portfolio is starting to shrink noticeably now and my shorts are starting to pile up. This does NOT happen in a healthy market.
I am not sure how many ways until Sunday I can keep saying the same thing. Please, I beg of you, if you are confused about this market, go back and read the past three weeks post. You will see how I react and acted to the situation that has played out and why my account is going to be hitting all-time highs soon while the markets fall or flop around.
And if you find any of this helpful in your investments, you should know you are only getting half of the conversation. I have many bright contributors on Investors Paradise that offer many intelligent post for readers to chew on. I encourage you to sign up and join the discussion.
I shall see you tomorrow. As always, stay positive, keep smiling, and keep cash on hand so we can NAIL the next bull market.
New Swing Longs: NONE
New Swing Shorts: EWI IYT EWQ E ADRE UAG WRES BJS PD AL
Longs Outperforming Market: HSR-46 JOBS ANEN CTCI-25 SMSI-96 BWP PCLN DDS ATRO STRL-40 FSTR LYV SHFL SHLD CXW TZOO EGY JCP KEX-41 LMIA-105 PKE HEIA-42 PAY-48 UVN DDE CBEY KNOL-148 OPTV-26 MGLN HWAY LCC-128 ACTG-87 USB Q-67 DIS CCI-86 SBIT
Shorts Outperforming Market: SIVB CRXL SWC JOYG USG ASA TMO DIA EWY CLF WSM DB CE ILF AMAT FCX IYM EWZ RTP NUE RES MNST ERIE ATI RS STLD
Stocks On Radar Screen: FLO
The markets basically all fell the same amount. The DJIA fell .65%, the SP 500 fell .61%, the Nasdaq fell .51%, and the SP 600 fell .47%
Volume was lower across the board but the late day reversal came on a pickup in volume. Another negative. Speaking of negative, breadth was negative on both boards today. The NYSE had decliners over advancers by a 5-to-3 margin; the Nasdaq had decliners winning by a 8-to-7 margin over advancers.
The SP-500 has now joined the Nasdaq in trading below its 50 and 200 dma. That is not what you see in a healthy market. Obviously, in a bull market you are not going to be under those key lines. This is another signal to stay on the sidelines and let things play out.
Another constant negative situation playing out is the top industries in IBD's industry list getting pounded. This simply does not happen in a normal pullback. Another thing that doesn't happen in a normal pullback is the rotation of leadership into defensive stocks. Defensive sectors don't go up in a bull market. They go up in a bear market. They are going up.
As each day goes by I keep selling more and more of long my long-term winners. My portfolio is starting to shrink noticeably now and my shorts are starting to pile up. This does NOT happen in a healthy market.
I am not sure how many ways until Sunday I can keep saying the same thing. Please, I beg of you, if you are confused about this market, go back and read the past three weeks post. You will see how I react and acted to the situation that has played out and why my account is going to be hitting all-time highs soon while the markets fall or flop around.
And if you find any of this helpful in your investments, you should know you are only getting half of the conversation. I have many bright contributors on Investors Paradise that offer many intelligent post for readers to chew on. I encourage you to sign up and join the discussion.
I shall see you tomorrow. As always, stay positive, keep smiling, and keep cash on hand so we can NAIL the next bull market.
New Swing Longs: NONE
New Swing Shorts: EWI IYT EWQ E ADRE UAG WRES BJS PD AL
Longs Outperforming Market: HSR-46 JOBS ANEN CTCI-25 SMSI-96 BWP PCLN DDS ATRO STRL-40 FSTR LYV SHFL SHLD CXW TZOO EGY JCP KEX-41 LMIA-105 PKE HEIA-42 PAY-48 UVN DDE CBEY KNOL-148 OPTV-26 MGLN HWAY LCC-128 ACTG-87 USB Q-67 DIS CCI-86 SBIT
Shorts Outperforming Market: SIVB CRXL SWC JOYG USG ASA TMO DIA EWY CLF WSM DB CE ILF AMAT FCX IYM EWZ RTP NUE RES MNST ERIE ATI RS STLD
Stocks On Radar Screen: FLO
Tuesday, June 06, 2006
Markets Make An Attempt At Stabilizing.
Stocks did the same thing they basically have been doing for the past month, finishing the session in the red. A late day rally helped ease the pressure of the selling but by the end of the day stocks were still red.
The SP 600 fell .7%, the DJIA fell .4%, the Nasdaq fell .3%, and the SP 500 fell .1%. Further proof that the selling is still in full force was the IBD 100 falling 1.4%. Leading stocks leading to the downside is simply not bullish.
Volume was higher across the board but the tails (intraday support) on the daily charts today indicate that it could be near-term support. I would not put too much confidence in this support, if in fact that is what is happening. There is still too much damage out there to be confident that these lows can hold. Could they? Yes but odds of failure are very high.
Breadth was also poor with negatives over advancers by a 2-to-1 margin on the NYSE and 3-to-2 on the Nasdaq.
The fact that we are almost into day 10 of the attempted rally from the May 24 lows and have not seen any strength in any new leading stocks also adds support that this rally attempt will not follow-through. Also the DJIA has already failed its May 24 low and is now in a downtrend in all time frames.
How long is all of this going to last? I don't know. No one does. So stop asking. Selling always last longer and go further than what most pundits think it will go. Another thing is you don't need volume on the downside to fall. On the other hand, to make strong gains on the indexes you NEED big volume. If buyers disappear, stocks will simply fall on themselves.
Keep cash heavy, as I keep saying over and over, while we are in this nasty downtrend on the indexes. Bounces simply can not be trusted at this point and new buys simply should not be taken if you are new to stocks. I know this seems hard to do but come talk to me after this downtrend is over. I would like to see how you did on the knife catching side of the game.
Have a great Wednesday! Great luck and stay in cash!
New Swing Longs: BIDU JCP PPHM FORR SABA
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market: VTS-35 ICTG-99 ANEN CTCI CXW KEYS-32 RSTI-37 CYMI MORN DDE GISX LMIA-104 HSR TYL EGOV PCLN BAM-34 PNRG-62 AKAM-90 WST PKE ASPV LRCX-33 EGY UVN LYV OPTV LCC-125 Q-66 OMCL ABI DDS RBAK-241 MGLN MU SHLD ECOL-41 PMTR-63 SMF
Shorts Outperforming Market: CRXL SWC JOYG USG ASA DIA EWY CE DB ILF AMAT IYM EWZ RF RES
Stocks On Radar Screen: XNR
The SP 600 fell .7%, the DJIA fell .4%, the Nasdaq fell .3%, and the SP 500 fell .1%. Further proof that the selling is still in full force was the IBD 100 falling 1.4%. Leading stocks leading to the downside is simply not bullish.
Volume was higher across the board but the tails (intraday support) on the daily charts today indicate that it could be near-term support. I would not put too much confidence in this support, if in fact that is what is happening. There is still too much damage out there to be confident that these lows can hold. Could they? Yes but odds of failure are very high.
Breadth was also poor with negatives over advancers by a 2-to-1 margin on the NYSE and 3-to-2 on the Nasdaq.
The fact that we are almost into day 10 of the attempted rally from the May 24 lows and have not seen any strength in any new leading stocks also adds support that this rally attempt will not follow-through. Also the DJIA has already failed its May 24 low and is now in a downtrend in all time frames.
How long is all of this going to last? I don't know. No one does. So stop asking. Selling always last longer and go further than what most pundits think it will go. Another thing is you don't need volume on the downside to fall. On the other hand, to make strong gains on the indexes you NEED big volume. If buyers disappear, stocks will simply fall on themselves.
Keep cash heavy, as I keep saying over and over, while we are in this nasty downtrend on the indexes. Bounces simply can not be trusted at this point and new buys simply should not be taken if you are new to stocks. I know this seems hard to do but come talk to me after this downtrend is over. I would like to see how you did on the knife catching side of the game.
Have a great Wednesday! Great luck and stay in cash!
New Swing Longs: BIDU JCP PPHM FORR SABA
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market: VTS-35 ICTG-99 ANEN CTCI CXW KEYS-32 RSTI-37 CYMI MORN DDE GISX LMIA-104 HSR TYL EGOV PCLN BAM-34 PNRG-62 AKAM-90 WST PKE ASPV LRCX-33 EGY UVN LYV OPTV LCC-125 Q-66 OMCL ABI DDS RBAK-241 MGLN MU SHLD ECOL-41 PMTR-63 SMF
Shorts Outperforming Market: CRXL SWC JOYG USG ASA DIA EWY CE DB ILF AMAT IYM EWZ RF RES
Stocks On Radar Screen: XNR
Monday, June 05, 2006
Stock Market Indexes Continue To Punish The Trapped Bulls.
The markets suffered a brutal beating today, thanks in large part by a double whammy of inflation talk from Ben Bernanke and a threat from Iran to curtail oil supply.
The selling started around 1pm and didn't stop till the closing bell. Stock market averages fell across the board, with the SP 600 down 2.8%, the Nasdaq down 2.2%, the SP 500 down 1.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial falling 1.77%.
Volume was lower on the Nasdaq and higher on the NYSE. The higher volume on the NYSE gave the SP 500 its second distribution day since the rally started. This along with the failure at the 50 dma makes this selloff look real bad. Breadth was horrible with decliners beating advancers 3-to-1 on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.
These distribution days and failures at key moving averages for all the indexes as this rally tries to start from the May 24 bottom tells me this rally will probably fail. Another negative is the lack of up days on big volume since the May 24 rally attempt. After falling on such heavy trade, this rally has shown very little accumulation and is still producing no leaders out of any industries besides defensive ones.
A couple of key notes out of "the big picture" in IBD is the fact that the IBD 100 which is home of the best stocks with the best fundy/tech ratings fell 3.2% and 196 out of 197 industries finished in the red!!!! UGLY! Along with this ugly data is the fact that 8 out of the top 10 industries fell 2% or more!! Double UGLY!
I firmly believe that we are going to 6% on the Fed Fund rate. This will ensure the popping (already happening) of the housing and commodity bubble that has happened due to low US interest rates and world wide economic growth. No matter what you believe or what you have been brainwashed to believe by CNN. This was the greatest time in history of world growth. Since the 2002 bottom, world growth has been incredible. Computer technology, high speed internet, and cellular technology has increased productivity and has truely made the world flat.
The comments today by Ben only confirms the fact that inflation is there and is a worry by the Fed. This helps a little bit with the clarity of where we are going with rates. Remember, we have been confused for the past year. Remember the eighth inning quote by the Dallas Fed head almost a year ago? So this clarity could be taken as a slight positive. Only because now we know what they are going to do.
If you have been doing what I have been saying on this blog then today's selloff did not and should not have touched you at all. Defense and keeping cash heavy is the only smart play right now, if you are a new trader or even if you are an experienced trader. As I keep saying, having cash ready to use when the real rally starts is more important than just staying busy and trading just to have something to do.
My shorts are performing quite well and if I have a good swoon with these and my few longs keep outperforming my accounts WILL hit all-time highs while the markets make new lows. I am only 6% off the highs.
If you are new to my blog, go back to a week or two before the selloff started and you will see I was warning everyone on parabolic charts, locking in profits, and noticing the lack of high quality stocks breaking out. Then when the selloff started, I said go to cash and keep new buys very small if you do buy anything. If you took that advice, you are smiling during this pullback knowing you did the right thing and locked in your big gains.
This market is in no mood to have a meaningful rally any time soon. Please go back and at least read the last 10 post to understand what the market is doing right now and what it is in position to do.
Have a great Tuesday!!! Stay positive and stay calm.
New Swing Longs: EGY TIII--for more info on longs, go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: RES PVA EZU EWO
Longs Outperforming Market-number is % return since purchase: GIGM-207 SMSI-94 SMDI-143 TSCM-164 HSR IVAC PNRG-61 ATRO CTCI BWP PSPT CBEY LYV PMTR-62 SKIL REFR OPTV FVE SHLD ABI
Shorts Outperforming Market-number is % increase since short: ELY-11 NVT-8 CRXL-8 SWC-8 JOYG-10 CLF-12 WSM-10 FCX-8 EWY-6 ASA-6 ILF-6 MNST-6 NUE-5 SIVB BPFH USG TMO DIA CE DB IYM AMAT EWZ CG RF STLD RS ATI MRK
Stocks On Radar Screen: NCST WVVI CNTY
The selling started around 1pm and didn't stop till the closing bell. Stock market averages fell across the board, with the SP 600 down 2.8%, the Nasdaq down 2.2%, the SP 500 down 1.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial falling 1.77%.
Volume was lower on the Nasdaq and higher on the NYSE. The higher volume on the NYSE gave the SP 500 its second distribution day since the rally started. This along with the failure at the 50 dma makes this selloff look real bad. Breadth was horrible with decliners beating advancers 3-to-1 on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.
These distribution days and failures at key moving averages for all the indexes as this rally tries to start from the May 24 bottom tells me this rally will probably fail. Another negative is the lack of up days on big volume since the May 24 rally attempt. After falling on such heavy trade, this rally has shown very little accumulation and is still producing no leaders out of any industries besides defensive ones.
A couple of key notes out of "the big picture" in IBD is the fact that the IBD 100 which is home of the best stocks with the best fundy/tech ratings fell 3.2% and 196 out of 197 industries finished in the red!!!! UGLY! Along with this ugly data is the fact that 8 out of the top 10 industries fell 2% or more!! Double UGLY!
I firmly believe that we are going to 6% on the Fed Fund rate. This will ensure the popping (already happening) of the housing and commodity bubble that has happened due to low US interest rates and world wide economic growth. No matter what you believe or what you have been brainwashed to believe by CNN. This was the greatest time in history of world growth. Since the 2002 bottom, world growth has been incredible. Computer technology, high speed internet, and cellular technology has increased productivity and has truely made the world flat.
The comments today by Ben only confirms the fact that inflation is there and is a worry by the Fed. This helps a little bit with the clarity of where we are going with rates. Remember, we have been confused for the past year. Remember the eighth inning quote by the Dallas Fed head almost a year ago? So this clarity could be taken as a slight positive. Only because now we know what they are going to do.
If you have been doing what I have been saying on this blog then today's selloff did not and should not have touched you at all. Defense and keeping cash heavy is the only smart play right now, if you are a new trader or even if you are an experienced trader. As I keep saying, having cash ready to use when the real rally starts is more important than just staying busy and trading just to have something to do.
My shorts are performing quite well and if I have a good swoon with these and my few longs keep outperforming my accounts WILL hit all-time highs while the markets make new lows. I am only 6% off the highs.
If you are new to my blog, go back to a week or two before the selloff started and you will see I was warning everyone on parabolic charts, locking in profits, and noticing the lack of high quality stocks breaking out. Then when the selloff started, I said go to cash and keep new buys very small if you do buy anything. If you took that advice, you are smiling during this pullback knowing you did the right thing and locked in your big gains.
This market is in no mood to have a meaningful rally any time soon. Please go back and at least read the last 10 post to understand what the market is doing right now and what it is in position to do.
Have a great Tuesday!!! Stay positive and stay calm.
New Swing Longs: EGY TIII--for more info on longs, go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: RES PVA EZU EWO
Longs Outperforming Market-number is % return since purchase: GIGM-207 SMSI-94 SMDI-143 TSCM-164 HSR IVAC PNRG-61 ATRO CTCI BWP PSPT CBEY LYV PMTR-62 SKIL REFR OPTV FVE SHLD ABI
Shorts Outperforming Market-number is % increase since short: ELY-11 NVT-8 CRXL-8 SWC-8 JOYG-10 CLF-12 WSM-10 FCX-8 EWY-6 ASA-6 ILF-6 MNST-6 NUE-5 SIVB BPFH USG TMO DIA CE DB IYM AMAT EWZ CG RF STLD RS ATI MRK
Stocks On Radar Screen: NCST WVVI CNTY
Saturday, June 03, 2006
Choppy Day Leaves Stocks Basically Unchanged.
Stock market indexes basically flopped and chopped on Friday, ending the session mixed but basically unchanged. The SP 500 rose .2%, the SP 600 rose .13%, the DJIA rose .11%, and the Nasdaq lagged with a .02% loss. As you can see it was a pretty uneventful day, as long as you were not watching the ticks intraday.
Volume fell across the board, on both the Nasdaq and the NYSE. Breadth was positive on both exchanges, with advancers over decliners 8-to-7 on the NYSE and 2-to-1 on the Nasdaq. This was the second straight up day on the SP 500 with volume coming in lower. Normally, you want to see the opposite after such a nasty selloff.
Stocks were crazy volatile for the week, with the SP 500 finishing up .6% and the Nasdaq up .4%. Friday's quiet session gave a very odd ending to a wild week.
This bounce appears to be pretty strong and it appears some traders are getting quite bullish on this bounce and are embracing the metals again. However, did you notice right after the jobs numbers and Iran news we had a quick selloff. In strong markets, you don't see knee-jerk reactions like that. That is the one thing that seems different this time. Good news isn't causing stocks to go up and bad news causes stocks to go down. It should be the opposite.
I am still in the camp that this particular pullback is very different than ANY other pullback I have seen since the bull market of October 2002 got underway. I would not start buying all your favorite stocks that have pulled back thinking the downside is done, I would not buy gold, silver, and metal stocks thinking that they are now cheap, and at the same time I would not just start shorting willy-nilly if you have never been through a bear market before.
This bounce from the lows has come on very low volume. Much lower than the distribution we saw during this last pullback. This along with all the major resistance stock indexes and past leaders have to work through makes me think this bounce will be met with another pullback in the near-term.
Let's look at some of the resistance we have in the indexes: SP 500 bounced off the 200 dma and is now up against the 50 dma which is now downtrending. The DJIA is against the 50 dma with the moving average now trending down. The SP 600 is near the 50 dma and that key line is trending down. The Nasdaq is the worst of them all with the index well under its downtrending 50 dma and now up against the key 200 dma which is about ready to rollover. If the Nasdaq fails here at the 200 dma and both moving averages rollover, newbies should stay on the sidelines and just wait and watch for a tradeable bounce. This is not the kind of market to try to be a hero in.
I am not sure why newbies feel they have to always put money to work. But if you just chill-out and keep cash heavy and ready to use when a real market rally starts, you will have more money to put in the next big winners that have a MUCH higher risk/reward ratio.
If the indexes keep holding here and I keep getting some nice breakouts in some high quality IBD stocks like I have been, I have confidence a tradeable rally in leading sectors can work out. So far it is going great, if you have been following my recent buys. But as for a real rally...don't hold your breath.
We are day seven into a rally attempt by the major market indexes. However, a follow-through does not guarantee we are all clear. The volume has been lacking, on this rally. When we follow-through we will want to see big gains, preferably 1.7% gains, on a HUGE pickup in volume.
If we do get a follow through and you can not find a lot of leading stocks with beautiful chart pattern, then you will know this rally is not going to end well. In great markets, the best stocks, will setup in nice calm bases before breaking out after a market follow-through. We simply don't have that out there.
The nice charts are all in defensive stocks. Small banks, food, beverage, containers, medical, and other boring industries.
This does not give me confidence that we are going to get a raging bull out of this. But if you look below you will see I have purchased many great longs that have performed quite well in this environment. It won't make you rich. But it will keep the portfolio growing while you wait to get rich from the real bull market. My shorts aren't doing great but they are not killing me either.
Am I off my all-time highs? Yes. Did I outperform the indexes this week? Yes. In time, will my portfolio hit all-time highs while the indexes keep making lower lows? Yes.
Have a great Sunday and I will see you on Monday!!!
Aloha!
New Swing Longs: GEF--for more info on longs/shorts go to Investors Paradise.
***********WSBA was not taken as a new long, due to the breakout above the 50 dma being caused by a completion of a merger with UMPQ.***********
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market-number is % return after purchase: SMDI-136 BGC-101 CBG-115 ICTG-93 WIRE-159 TGC-178 OMNI-117 KNOL-151 CCI-89 CVO-124 HEIA-46 PNRG-58 IHS-42 CXG VTS-32 BWP FSTR MORN EGOV BAM-38 KEYS-33 PKE TTES-48 RSTI-44 KEX-55 PSPT EAGL-66 AOB PCLN KDN GISX SPSX-61 IVAC CXW LYV CBEY AOM SA TGE-38 PMTR-51 FWLT-65 TYL RAE HNZ Q-62 ANEN SBIT PROG
Shorts Outperforming Market: MNST SIVB ELY NVT BPFH DIA EWZ DB AMAT
Cover Short: AMH
Volume fell across the board, on both the Nasdaq and the NYSE. Breadth was positive on both exchanges, with advancers over decliners 8-to-7 on the NYSE and 2-to-1 on the Nasdaq. This was the second straight up day on the SP 500 with volume coming in lower. Normally, you want to see the opposite after such a nasty selloff.
Stocks were crazy volatile for the week, with the SP 500 finishing up .6% and the Nasdaq up .4%. Friday's quiet session gave a very odd ending to a wild week.
This bounce appears to be pretty strong and it appears some traders are getting quite bullish on this bounce and are embracing the metals again. However, did you notice right after the jobs numbers and Iran news we had a quick selloff. In strong markets, you don't see knee-jerk reactions like that. That is the one thing that seems different this time. Good news isn't causing stocks to go up and bad news causes stocks to go down. It should be the opposite.
I am still in the camp that this particular pullback is very different than ANY other pullback I have seen since the bull market of October 2002 got underway. I would not start buying all your favorite stocks that have pulled back thinking the downside is done, I would not buy gold, silver, and metal stocks thinking that they are now cheap, and at the same time I would not just start shorting willy-nilly if you have never been through a bear market before.
This bounce from the lows has come on very low volume. Much lower than the distribution we saw during this last pullback. This along with all the major resistance stock indexes and past leaders have to work through makes me think this bounce will be met with another pullback in the near-term.
Let's look at some of the resistance we have in the indexes: SP 500 bounced off the 200 dma and is now up against the 50 dma which is now downtrending. The DJIA is against the 50 dma with the moving average now trending down. The SP 600 is near the 50 dma and that key line is trending down. The Nasdaq is the worst of them all with the index well under its downtrending 50 dma and now up against the key 200 dma which is about ready to rollover. If the Nasdaq fails here at the 200 dma and both moving averages rollover, newbies should stay on the sidelines and just wait and watch for a tradeable bounce. This is not the kind of market to try to be a hero in.
I am not sure why newbies feel they have to always put money to work. But if you just chill-out and keep cash heavy and ready to use when a real market rally starts, you will have more money to put in the next big winners that have a MUCH higher risk/reward ratio.
If the indexes keep holding here and I keep getting some nice breakouts in some high quality IBD stocks like I have been, I have confidence a tradeable rally in leading sectors can work out. So far it is going great, if you have been following my recent buys. But as for a real rally...don't hold your breath.
We are day seven into a rally attempt by the major market indexes. However, a follow-through does not guarantee we are all clear. The volume has been lacking, on this rally. When we follow-through we will want to see big gains, preferably 1.7% gains, on a HUGE pickup in volume.
If we do get a follow through and you can not find a lot of leading stocks with beautiful chart pattern, then you will know this rally is not going to end well. In great markets, the best stocks, will setup in nice calm bases before breaking out after a market follow-through. We simply don't have that out there.
The nice charts are all in defensive stocks. Small banks, food, beverage, containers, medical, and other boring industries.
This does not give me confidence that we are going to get a raging bull out of this. But if you look below you will see I have purchased many great longs that have performed quite well in this environment. It won't make you rich. But it will keep the portfolio growing while you wait to get rich from the real bull market. My shorts aren't doing great but they are not killing me either.
Am I off my all-time highs? Yes. Did I outperform the indexes this week? Yes. In time, will my portfolio hit all-time highs while the indexes keep making lower lows? Yes.
Have a great Sunday and I will see you on Monday!!!
Aloha!
New Swing Longs: GEF--for more info on longs/shorts go to Investors Paradise.
***********WSBA was not taken as a new long, due to the breakout above the 50 dma being caused by a completion of a merger with UMPQ.***********
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market-number is % return after purchase: SMDI-136 BGC-101 CBG-115 ICTG-93 WIRE-159 TGC-178 OMNI-117 KNOL-151 CCI-89 CVO-124 HEIA-46 PNRG-58 IHS-42 CXG VTS-32 BWP FSTR MORN EGOV BAM-38 KEYS-33 PKE TTES-48 RSTI-44 KEX-55 PSPT EAGL-66 AOB PCLN KDN GISX SPSX-61 IVAC CXW LYV CBEY AOM SA TGE-38 PMTR-51 FWLT-65 TYL RAE HNZ Q-62 ANEN SBIT PROG
Shorts Outperforming Market: MNST SIVB ELY NVT BPFH DIA EWZ DB AMAT
Cover Short: AMH
Thursday, June 01, 2006
Don't Believe The Hype.
Market commentary after I get back from Sansei's. Even then it is no guarantee there will be any.
New Swing Longs: EGOV DDE ANEN SHLD SKIL DDS BMRN--for more info on longs go to Investors Paradise. Disclosure: EGOV, SHLD, ANEN were bought intraday yesterday
Adding To Position: TZOO
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market: LMIA-113 AKAM-101 CBG-110 GIGM-183 RATE-162 KNOL-138 CVO-124 ASPV HSR BGC-92 SMSI-85 HOM-85 CXG RSTI-42 TZOO HEIA-35 KEYS-30 SHFL WST LRCX-37 BAM-36 PNRG-48 PCLN EAGL-65 KEX-53 STRL-61 CTCI GISX AOB ICTG-92 COGO-90 JOBS-28 CTXS-44 BWP IVAC ATRO LYV VIMC-63 OMNI-79 RAE PKE FWLT-63 Q-61 AXE-39 NNDS-36 PSPT TVIA-37 CCI-85 PMTR-39 GGI HWAY DRH-27 PWR MU-27 GMST PAY-53 ECLG-68 ABI ISV-41 PRVT SBIT RNST CTEC
Shorts Outperforming Market: CRXL ASA
Stocks On Radar Screen: BIDU PWX UARM BOT QRCP TDG GEF
Take Some Profits On Short: WSM
Cover Short: BUCY VTV IEV
New Swing Longs: EGOV DDE ANEN SHLD SKIL DDS BMRN--for more info on longs go to Investors Paradise. Disclosure: EGOV, SHLD, ANEN were bought intraday yesterday
Adding To Position: TZOO
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market: LMIA-113 AKAM-101 CBG-110 GIGM-183 RATE-162 KNOL-138 CVO-124 ASPV HSR BGC-92 SMSI-85 HOM-85 CXG RSTI-42 TZOO HEIA-35 KEYS-30 SHFL WST LRCX-37 BAM-36 PNRG-48 PCLN EAGL-65 KEX-53 STRL-61 CTCI GISX AOB ICTG-92 COGO-90 JOBS-28 CTXS-44 BWP IVAC ATRO LYV VIMC-63 OMNI-79 RAE PKE FWLT-63 Q-61 AXE-39 NNDS-36 PSPT TVIA-37 CCI-85 PMTR-39 GGI HWAY DRH-27 PWR MU-27 GMST PAY-53 ECLG-68 ABI ISV-41 PRVT SBIT RNST CTEC
Shorts Outperforming Market: CRXL ASA
Stocks On Radar Screen: BIDU PWX UARM BOT QRCP TDG GEF
Take Some Profits On Short: WSM
Cover Short: BUCY VTV IEV
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