Monday, April 29, 2013

New Highs on Low Volume as Traders look ahead to the Fed Meeting Beginning Tomorrow

Another new high set by the market despite uninspiring economic data. Personal savings rate hit a new low as incomes could keep up with spending. In addition, the Dallas Fed survey dropped well below expectations. The Federal Reserve has been pumping billions into the market and we continue to see disappointing economic figures. Starting tomorrow the Fed will begin its two day meeting and all eyes will be on the Fed chief. Regardless, it is difficult to argue with the market and we’ll continue to go with the trend. Hard to fight the power of excess liquidity and it is best to stick with trend following. Friday’s GDP report was quite disappointing showing a reading of 2.5% when economists and the market was expecting 3.0%. Excuses were plenty and the market took it in stride and followed through today. Volume wasn’t there, but it isn’t a big surprise to us as we have not been blessed with institutional volume. We only get volume at the end of the month or option expiry. Price has ruled the day and will always rule. Follow it. The last two weeks has been quite a ride for the markets. Just a little over a week and a half ago it appeared the market was ready to keel over and begin a new leg down. Never doubt a liquidity driven market as we have just witnessed a market being able to retrace more than 100% from its move to new lows. We now have a situation where we have lower highs and higher highs. Not exactly the prototypical trend confirmation. Tomorrow we’ll get another read from the Case-Shiller Index as well as a reading from Chicago PMI. Flash PMIs across the globe have been disappointing. Given the weakness in GDP if estimates have not come down it wouldn’t surprise us to see another disappointing economic piece of data. The trend is still up and despite the distribution in the middle of the month. Have a great week.

Sunday, April 28, 2013

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a NEUTRAL condition, following this week’s action. While the price action was very strong with many stocks producing large moves, the overall indexes are still trapped in a trading range between their respective recent 1-month highs and lows. While a resolution to the upside does appear to be imminent and all but certain based on the action of stocks, it is still not guaranteed. There fore, the situation remains fluid and the next switch in the model will occur once prices either breakout or breakdown out of the current consolidation range. Overall, despite all the noise that has been flying around the market lately, the trend still remains up in this QE environment. As long as we are in a world where central banks can print their way out of short-term problems, we must respect that any selloff will be contained and supported. Until interest rates begin to rise or the Fed hints that they are about to rise, we must assume that a real floor (ie…reality) will not be found. There is a major bifurcation between economic reality on the ground and the economic reality of the stock market. There has never been this much of a divergence between macro and micro in the history of US markets and I think it is about as clear as an example that you can have in regards to the USA becoming a serfdom where 3% of the haves control the 97% of the have-nots. So as long as this is the reality we are in, it is the reality we must deal with. Low volume rallies, low volume support, and new highs on low volume following heavy and constant distribution will continue to be the norm. It is not historically what market historians are used to dealing with but we have never had a global economy where every nation basically moves in lock-step ever before. The bottom line is that it is what it is. It would be extremely nice to go back to the way it was before 2009. However, that is wishful thinking and does nothing for our bottom line. What does help the bottom line? A disciplined, no-emotion, back-tested approach to price action. As you can see below, we are dealing with the market quite nicely. What is unfortunate is that these positions are not there usual 10-20% each across the board in the BWT portfolios. However, when you have a market where price and volume metrics that you have used your entire career continues to not work, you have to trade according to your risk tolerance. In this kind of out-of-sync price/volume environment, I don’t mind keeping positions smaller and more diversified. It continues to be too risky to get heavily invested in any one signal as we were constantly before the 2009 rally. It is what it is. It isn’t bad. It isn’t good. It just is. Have a great upcoming week everyone. Great luck in your personal investing/trading. Aloha from the beautiful island of Maui. Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain – Date of Signal EAC long – 141% – 12/17/12 HIMX long – 123% – 12/19/12 POWR long – 114% – 12/11/12 RVLT long – 113% – 3/26/13 CSU long – 96% – 9/4/12 CAMP long – 90% – 4/26/12 GNMK long – 73% – 11/16/12 FLT long – 69% – 9/6/12 ASTM short – 65% – 7/17/12 HEES long – 63% – 9/4/12 SBGI long – 51% – 3/22/13 WAGE long – 45% – 1/8/13 V long – 30% – 8/31/12 CHUY long – 30% – 1/10/13 INSM long – 28% – 4/19/13 BBSI long – 28% – 2/13/13 AXLL long – 28% – 1/4/13 PFBI long – 28% – 11/19/12 HTA long – 25% – 1/2/13 CPSS long – 25% – 1/31/13

Thursday, April 25, 2013

NASDAQ Closes Positive for the Fifth Straight Session

In just 5 days the market has been able to regain almost all of the prior week’s loss as volume jumps on the day. Jobless claims were better than expected helping boost futures. The only other economic release was the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index and it disappointed. Economic news continues to tip the scales towards disappointment possibly setting up a disappointing GDP report. Towards the end of the trading session sellers took hold the market knocking it off its highs. While it was quickly kicked saved by a few buyers you have to wonder if the GDP report was leaked. Conspiracy theories aside the market was able to withstand sellers. We still remain in neutral mode even with the market recovering gains and we’ll stick with our process. Investor sentiment is now being dominated by neutral respondents. AAII sentiment survey shows bears still in the majority although down 9 points from last week. Neutral respondents jumped 8 points while Bulls jumped 1 point. AAII Bulls remain under 30% despite this move off the lows. II survey saw bulls drop below 45% and bears drop below 20%. NAAIM survey is a bit more believable as it is a survey of actual positions investment managers are taking. Survey respondents were net long 69.9% slightly higher last week. Although not ultra-long the survey does favor the long side. The recent move in markets has certainly impacted sentiment. The focus all day tomorrow will be the initial look at the first quarter GDP. Estimates for the first quarter GDP are in at 3%. It really is anyone’s guess what the number will be and even the expert “economists” are simply guessing. How the market reacts is the most important piece to this puzzle. Just do not fight this market and make sure you cut your losses. Stay disciplined and stick with the process. Cut your losses and ride your winners.

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Dow ends win streak; Small caps lead the market higher

The market kicked off with a very disappointing Durable Goods reading, yet the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were able to finish just above the flat line. Volume inched higher on the session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average notching a distribution day. PG and T were the two biggest losers on the Dow after disappointing earnings. Small cap stocks led the way with the Russell 2000 gaining 50 basis points on the day. The market remains in no mans land for the time being. Perhaps it is waiting on Friday’s GDP release or next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. We have rallied a bit off last week’s lows, but we’ll be looking for a strong move on volume to confirm a new uptrend. Crude oil jumped more than two points today. The move could be attributed to the release of inventories at 1030 am today. I was certainly hoping for lower prices from the commodity for the sake of middle and lower class income families. The dollar index did fall today, but the index has rebounded well off its 50 day moving average. Troubles in Euroland and Japan hell-bent on devaluing the Yen the dollar remains a safe haven. It would be nice to get a few days of consolidation to cool the jets off a bit. We are a bit overheated to the upside here. Economic data continues to be weak and we have yet to see the equity market see any negative reaction to the data. We are in QE land along with ZIRP anything is possible. However, the last few years we have seen May tend to be unkind to the market as it adjusts to poor economic conditions. The diminishing returns on QE have become noticeable given today’s Durable Goods release. Friday’s GDP report will certainly give a reading if this money printing has helped the economy grow. Stocks remain resilient and immune to a significant sell off for now. We’ll follow our rules to reap gains from this market. Cut your losses and ride the Big Wave gains!

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Stocks Extend Gains for Third Straight Day

Early morning rally from European markets albeit on continued economic weakness helped fuel early morning gains in US Futures. China didn’t help matters with a disappointing Flash PMI reading with the Shanghai falling 2.6%. US economic data didn’t surprise to the upside with the Markit US PMI came in at 52.0 with the expectations at 53.9. The Richmond Fed Index fell to -6 reading showing continued weakness in US Economic data. New Home sales did gain more than expected fueling a big rally in equities. Even with a mini-flash crash mid-date due to the AP being hacked the market was able to claw higher with volume expanding. The market continues its choppy ways as more economic data is set to be released tomorrow. How could we not mention AAPL till the second paragraph? AAPL released earnings at 4:30 pm EST beating estimates for the quarter. Guidance was weak at best with margin compression taking hold. The company raised its dividend by 15% and doubled its stock buyback program by $50 billion! Initially, the stock jumped on the news. However, by the close of the after-hours session the stock fell back below the close of the normal market hours. Weakness is not a trait we want to see in our stocks and with the weakness in AAPL we’ll leave the stock be for now. Outside of AAPL’s earnings the entire after-hours session was filled with earnings disappointments. EW, CREE, PNRA, and AMGN are just a few stocks having a tough time with earnings. AMGN has been a big winner for the NASDAQ producing decent sized gains for the index. VMW was another earnings loser with the stock tumbling 6% in the after-hours session. Holding through earnings is a dangerous game and if you do not have enough cushion or you are holding in size it is prudent to reduce your position. ARMH was certainly an earnings winner, but this time of action post earnings has been somewhat scarce. Stick with your rules and earnings season will go smoothly. Tomorrow we’ll get a read on Durable goods with Autos expecting to bring down the figure. Given all the negative economic readings it would be fitting this number will disappoint too. We’ll follow price and ignore the noise. Stick to your rules and cut your losses!

Sunday, April 21, 2013

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

Due to the distribution this week in all of the major market indexes, the breakdowns in leading stocks, and constant lagging in the Russell 2000, the market direction model has switched to NEUTRAL on all major market indexes. The short-term current market environment has gotten choppy over the past few weeks and this action is definitely weighing on the model. The lagging Relative Strength of the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 has made this rally all year long suspect but our individual long signals continued to work relatively well despite this. This is more of a byproduct of our long signals coming from big-cap big-board indexes. However, the overall lagging action of the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 was always a cause for concern. It should not be assumed that since we are now under a NEUTRAL condition that the very next signal is going to be a switch to a SELL mode. While it does appear the market is finally ready for a correction based on the way stocks are acting post-earnings, there are still plenty of leading stocks that are clearly forming decent consolidation patterns. A market reversal back to new highs would have many of these stocks easily breaking out of their current consolidation pattern. Therefore, it is best to remain very neutral here and wait to see which way the market breaks out of this consolidation zone the Nasdaq, Russell 2000, and SP 500 are in before convicting oneself to one side or the other of this market. We will continue to play individual stocks as they produce signals in either direction, keeping capital very limited in our selections during this bifurcated US economy and stock market. As long as the market rallies overall on low volume, it is going to be very hard to go 5%, 10%, and science forbid 20% long on a new long or short signal. We will just have to keep taking what the market gives us, either concentrating heavily into the best leading stocks in leading industry groups like Biotechs or keeping individual plays at a minimum with tight stops. The most important play for us right now is to continue to have a lot of cash on hand in case we get a screaming signal to the short side signaling that this market is done on the upside. The other scenario is having a lot of cash on hand in case the market breaks out higher and we get our once-reliable extremely strong price/volume signal to get heavily long a handful of leading stocks. While the latter scenario seems quite implausible it is still a possibility. However, truth be told, we are really waiting to hammer this market on the short side once it becomes apparent the QE low volume stock market manipulation rally is coming to an end. We might still be three years away from that though. Until then, we will ride the bucking bronco. Have a wonderful and profitable upcoming week everyone. Try not to psychoanalyze everything out there too much. Aloha! Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain – Date of Signal EAC long – 154% – 12/17/12 HIMX long – 130% – 12/19/12 CSU long – 96% – 9/4/12 POWR long – 87% – 12/11/12 CAMP long – 69% – 4/26/12 GNMK long – 69% – 11/16/12 FLT long – 65% – 9/6/12 ASTM short – 64% – 7/17/12 HEES long – 58% – 9/4/12 SBGI long – 41% – 3/22/13 WAGE long – 38% – 1/8/13 CPSS long – 35% – 1/31/13 BBSI long – 34% – 2/13/13 PFBI long – 29% – 11/19/12 AXLL long – 28% – 1/4/13 GLL long – 28% – 2/14/13 V long – 27% – 8/31/12 CHUY long – 25% – 1/10/13

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Volume Jumps and Stocks Fall Ending the Market’s Uptrend

The NASDAQ Composite loses its 50 day moving average on heavy volume. AAPL and GOOG lead the NASDAQ 100 lower as the big cap technology closed down 1.99%. Commodities followed stocks lower with copper and other metals leading the charge lower. The Federal Reserve’s Beige book showed moderate growth due to autos and housing but did very little to lift the market further off its lows. Blue chips continued their outperformance with help from JNJ and HD. The action as of late is certainly along with volume has thrown our uptrend out the window. We will act accordingly to our rules. Economic news has not been good across the globe and up until this week the market has ignored them. This morning BAC released disappointing results and CSX CEO stated this economy would only grow 1-2%. Two percent growth is simply not good enough and anything less than 2% would cause big impacts. Many estimates from the public to private sector are counting on growth to solve our problems. If growth doesn’t show up it will cause significant impacts to bottom lines. Earnings will continue to pour in and while there was quite a bit of optimism heading into this earnings season it is how the market reacts is what is important to us. We do not pretend to even think we could predict the future like many pundits on CNBC and Bloomberg. Our focus is on our trend following process to set ourselves apart and obtain superior performance. Focus on price action and using our rules to know when to get in and out is how we drive superior results. Tomorrow we’ll get our weekly look at Jobless claims. It is anyone’s guess how the number will turn out, but it is sure to get a good rant out of Rick Santelli! Who doesn’t love a good rant every once in a while. Perhaps we have our correction that every bear has been calling for at our doorstep. We simply won’t know until it is over. Stick with Big Wave Trading and we’ll get you to a higher level of trading. Cut those losses and ride your winners.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Volume Disappears as Stocks Recoup Majority of Monday Losses

In fine QE fashion stocks rebound in very light trade. Positive housing data did help the market even though growth came from multi-family homes. Industrial production grew at a faster pace than expected. Today was the first time we had economic data come in better than expected. Sellers disappeared paving the way for the market to float higher throughout the day. Volume disappeared falling more than 20% on the NYSE and 15% on the NASDAQ falling right in line with QE trading. Our uptrend remains in place for now and we remain ever confident in our systematic approach. Gold and silver rebounded as well as many other commodities after Monday’s big decline. The decline in gold was a 7 sigma move! Either metal was unable to capture majority of losses like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ. I for one would love to see commodities in general move lower. Lower prices of things we need like food and energy can only help those who don’t own assets benefiting from the Fed’s ZIRP and QE. Lower prices for commodities continue to be highly probable and who can’t smile at lower prices at the pump? Earnings after the bell failed to inspire buyers. INTC closed the after-hours session higher by .71%. However, INTC was up more than 3% after reporting earnings. YHOO pushed higher initially after reporting earnings but the stock fell 4% by the end of the after-hours session. CRUS released earnings disappointing the street finishing lower by almost 11%. We’ll see what tomorrow brings for these stocks and the rest of the market. Tomorrow we’ll get the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige book. There are few speeches tomorrow by Fed members and likely get a few headlines. Outside of the Beige book it is a relatively quiet day in terms of economic news. Before the market open we’ll get earnings from BAC and we’ll see if the stock follows C or GS. BAC has been a leader in this rally and has been an important piece to this rally. If this market can build upon today’s gains it will bode well to recoup all of Monday’s losses. Of course, we’ll follow our strategy and follow price. Cut those losses.

Saturday, April 13, 2013

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

The Big Wave Trading portfolio remains under a BUY signal which was regenerated on March 5th. The Russell 2000 was the only index under a NEUTRAL condition heading into the most recent week but has now re-switched back to a BUY mode as well. Overall, following this week’s action, the uptrend remains in tact and there are no current pressures on the BUY signal. The only problem remains the same problem we have had for four years. There is still a lack of volume conviction in the overall stock market indexes on days when we rally. If there was broad volume across the board, Big Wave Trading would be heavily on margin during an uptrend like we are witnessing. However, without total confirmation across the board BWT continues to operate from a side of caution on new signals as severe sharp corrections are normal in low volume rally market environments. That being said, there continues to be a plethora of actionable buy signals across various investing methodologies and as long as signals are triggered on an individual stock by stock basis we will continue to go long our signals as they are generated. The only difference from this rally and all other previous rallies pre-2009 is the size of new long commitments. We continue to invest below what we would consider normal size per each new long signal. Going forward, we will continue to hunt and take action on our long signals and will constantly be vigilant and prepared for a significant correction. As long as the world is printing and commodities are falling, we do not have to worry about inflation or hyper-inflation influencing our dollar’s purchasing power. As long as world-wide QE and ZIRP is in effect, we will continue to focus on price only. Price is all that matter right now and we will continue to keep it simple. Have a great and profitable upcoming week in the stock market, everyone. Aloha from a very beautiful and warm Maui. Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain – Date of Signal HIMX long – 145% – 12/19/12 EAC long – 139% – 12/17/12 CSU long – 106% – 9/4/12 POWR long – 93% – 12/11/12 FLT long – 73% – 9/6/12 CAMP long – 73% – 4/26/12 HEES long – 67% – 9/4/12 ASTM short – 63% – 7/17/12 GNMK long – 60% – 11/16/12 SBGI long – 51% – 3/22/13 CPSS long – 43% – 1/31/13 WAGE long – 36% – 1/8/13 AXLL long – 35% – 1/4/13 BBSI long – 32% – 2/13/13

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Stocks Extend Gains Closing Higher for the 4th Straight Session

This week has favored the bulls as the market closed higher with gains for the fourth straight session. Volume ended mixed falling on the NYSE while running higher on the NASDAQ. A report on PC sales sent the likes of $MSFT, $INTC, and $HPQ lower putting pressure on the NASDAQ. Jobless claims were better than expected a far cry from last week’s big disappointment. Import prices fell more than expected showing inflation has yet to show up despite the Federal Reserve’s 80+ billion a month easing program. Our uptrend remains intact and it will take quite a bit to knock this market off its uptrend. Sentiment has made a big jump this week. II survey continues to favor more bulls with more than 50% of its respondents are bullish with just 20% in the bear camp. The big jump came from the AAII survey with almost 55% responded as bearish. A big jump week over week with last week’s Non-Farm Payrolls likely to be blamed for the overly bearish reading. AAII are individual investors and are more likely to flip flop on their views of the market much more than the II survey. I can’t remember ever a time where AAII bears were more than II bulls, but yet we have it here. We don’t care if this is good news or not for our uptrend, it is quite amusing to see the disparity between the two camps. Tomorrow we’ll get a read on Advance Retail sales and for some reason I get the feeling they’ll be better than expected. $XRT certainly says it will be better! However, $JPM and $WFC release earnings prior to the retail figures. Many banks have been lagging the overall market and we are about to get a heavy dose of earnings releases from the group. We have noted before the banks have provided the S&P 500 with the lion share of earnings growth last year and analysts are expecting the same for this year. Tomorrow we’ll get the first view of how bank earnings could be shaping up for the first quarter of 2013. We are in an uptrend and we’ll favor the long side of the market. Until we get heavy distribution and leaders falling we’ll get neutral. Until then, we are full steam ahead on the long side.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

A hiccup at the Federal Reserve led the central bank to release their latest meeting minutes at 9am EST. Despite several members favoring tapering the money printing operation by mid-year the market took off. Leading the charge was the NASDAQ, but on the Russell 3000 it was the most heavily shorted stocks boosting stock market gains. The Dow and S&P 500 closed at historic highs while the NASDAQ was only able to muster multi-year new highs. We are a ways off from the all-time highs set in the dot com era. Price direction has been spot on here even faced with two slight sell-offs. Stick with the trend and for now it remains up! It is clear the market favors more QE than less. Last Friday’s job report shows this economy just can’t muster enough jobs. Will the QE program work remains to be seen. Again, we have put faith in the Federal Reserve will be able to allocate capital properly to ignite the economy. At least for now a few members within the Fed are keen on curtailing the program. For now our stock market likes it giving us an uptrend to work with and when/how this will end will be something to see. Technology stocks led the way today as seen by the NASDAQ Composite gaining 1.83%. Russell 2000 was right on the NASDAQ’s heels gaining 1.8%. Small cap stocks had been lagging as of late, but finally saw a bit of reprieve from underperformance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finally lagged as we have seen the Blue Chip index lead over the past few sessions. It is good to see the NASDAQ and Small Cap stocks lead and we’ll like it even more if they continue to stand in front. Earnings season will ramp higher with $JPM and $WFC reporting earnings on Friday. Financial stocks have been the bread winner when it has come to earnings growth for the S&P 500. Bank earnings are particularly difficult due to how much or little the bank decides to release its loan loss reserves. Of course it is a big game and more importantly price will tell us everything we need to know. However, if bank earnings can’t sustain its recent pace the S&P 500 will need to find earnings growth from another group. We continue to operate in an uptrend and cut our laggards as we move forward.

Tuesday, April 09, 2013

$MSFT and $FSLR Lead the Market Higher

Unable to hang to the highs of the session stocks finish higher as volume jumps over Monday’s depressed levels. Wholesale inventories jumped more than expected in the month of February throwing a kink into first quarter GDP. Breadth on the NASDAQ ended in favor of the decliners despite the gains on the day. NYSE breadth ended in favor of advancers, but overall breadth has not been up to par with a rising market. Volume was below average, but above yesterday’s level showing interest in stocks picked up. However, the late day pullback from the highs did not leave us with a pleasant taste in our mouth. Regardless of how we feel about the market we are still in an uptrend and continue to operate as such. The two big movers on the day were $FSLR and $MSFT. $FSLR raised its guidance and the stock soared. It happens to be the third most shorted stock on the S&P 500. Then we have Mister Softy $MSFT jumping more than a point nearing $30. Volume was nearly twice its 50 day average. Both stocks were a big reason for the NASDAQ and S&P 500 finished in the green. Hard to say $MSFT is a growth name capable of moving substantially, but when it is a large component of the NASDAQ you have to sit up and take notice. Today’s economic data was essentially ignored with increasing inventories and the NFIB showing small business plan to hire is at 0%. Tomorrow’s release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes will be slobbered all over. When will the Fed begin to end or taper QErever? The fed has pledged to continue to provide stimulus until unemployment hits 6.5%. However, with Friday’s job report and the number of people leaving the labor force throws a monkey wrench into the Fed’s plan. Not to mention the QE plan has never been tested and risks can not be quantified. Time will tell and so will prices. Have a game plan and execute. Our uptrend remains in place and until we get a signal otherwise we’ll stick with our plan. Cut your losses short.

Monday, April 08, 2013

Another Late Day surge pushes Stocks higher as Volume disappears

Small caps lead the market higher today rebounding from last week’s losses just ahead of the first quarter earnings season. The market has been finding buyers after 3:30 pm EST and today was no different. Buyers helped push the market to the highs of the session. Volume continues to be extremely light on positive days. A show there isn’t much institutional support, but enough to push the market in positive territory. Our uptrend remains intact despite the lack of volume and we’ll continue to look for higher prices. We did not get any economic releases today and tomorrow will get a read on wholesale inventories. Not exactly exciting and nothing historically has moved the market very much. Wednesday we’ll get the FOMC meeting minutes at 2pm. A few Federal Reserve members have noted curbing asset purchases may help reducing the risks associated with printing to oblivion. It’ll be important to see how the market reacts and closes on Wednesday. Tuesday’s action isn’t likely to have any catalyst to change trend as Wednesday does. However, anything is possible and as long as you have a plan you’ll be in the driver’s seat. The big mover has been the USDJPY and the Nikkei. Central bankers in Japan have jumped the shark and have gone all-in on purchasing Japanese debt. For three straight quarters Japan has seen negative GDP growth and prospects remaining bleak. Again, the world is expecting a central banking cartel to manage using decentralized data. Bond purchases have not worked in decades and it is likely this round of unlimited purchases will have very little long term success. Will we get another Zimbabwe? Time will tell. Stick to your game plan and remain disciplined.

Thursday, April 04, 2013

Another Late Day Rally Lifts Stocks near the Highs of the Session

The S&P 500 continued its yo-yo action finishing in the green today as volume fell across the board ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll figures. Once again in the last 15 minutes buyers stepped up and pushed stocks higher into the close. It has become clock work at the end of the day buyers are appearing supporting the market. Jobless claim figures jumped more than expected just as momentum had been to the upside. Small caps were able to jump into the lead after lagging the broader market this week. Major market averages remain above their respective 50 day moving averages and we remain in an uptrend. Commodities fell again today even as the dollar rose on the day. Natural gas still is in an uptrend completely ignoring what is going on with other commodities. SLV and GLD continued to slide lower confusing many inflationist. Remember, GLD and SLV represent paper and are not replacements for actual coinage. There is a reason gold and silver coins are in high demand and is not translating over to the paper representation of the metals. The entire commodity complex is not saying to the market the global economy is healthy. Interesting to see the number of Bulls remain in the mid-30s from the AAII survey respondents. Bears remained in the 20s. II Bears continue to come in under 20% and bulls above 50%. QE certainly has kept many bullish expecting the money printing to keep prices high. This may be true, but we are in unchartered waters and with the Bank of Japan jumping the shark anything is possible. Tomorrow Non-Farm Payroll figure will dominate CNBC for majority of the morning. The Federal Reserve has now put the Unemployment rate in big bright neon lights. Given our PMI figures released earlier this week it wouldn’t surprise me if the jobs number comes in slightly under expectations. This is just a guess and I wouldn’t even bet my worse enemy’s money on what I think may happen. We are in an uptrend and while we are seeing signs of it weakening we aren’t going to guess when this uptrend will end. We’ll stay disciplined. Cut your losses and have a great weekend!