Big Wave Trading incorporates a Mechanical Disciplined Signal Generated System and uses a Market Model system to invest profitably in the stock and futures markets. Big Wave Trading also incorporates a strict risk management system and cuts losses immediately if a new purchase does not work in our favored direction right away.
Showing posts with label VRNM. Show all posts
Showing posts with label VRNM. Show all posts
Saturday, February 09, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a strong BUY signal from 1/2/13. There remains absolutely zero indications, via price action, that there is anything to do but ride the trend higher here.
Despite the constant discussions of what is wrong with this rally and how extreme it is (we will go over that below), stocks continue to breakout from solid consolidation patterns with other stocks either trending up since breaking out or consolidating in preparation for possible breakouts.
As long as we continue to see high quality stocks setup, consolidate, and breakout, we will remain buyers, despite the “overbought” conditions of the market. And trust me we are extremely aware about them at Big Wave Trading.
While we remain buyers of stocks “up here,” we are being very selective and using appropriate capital for a market so extended. If we had more of our current holdings looking like they were putting in climax or parabolic type runs we would be more worried and would begin to hunt for protective put positions in the indexes. However, our longs continue to act orderly and do not exhibit the patterns seen at a market that is doomed to soon top. It still very well could but the price action in the market and stocks does not suggest that.
We read all the headlines. We see all the news. For instance, 3-month sum mutual fund and ETF inflows are at 10 year highs, weekly mutual fund inflows are at 13 year highs, mutual funds have the least amount of cash on hand in 50 years, the VIX is too low at 13, the bulls are dominating the bears on the II (55 vs. 21) and AAII (43 vs. 30) surveys, and stocks are overbought on short-term oscillating indicators.
That is all fine and well and we definitely take all bit of information into consideration as we prepare for the inevitable pullback. However, until it actually happens, there is no reason to take defensive measures now by selling stocks or eliminating new long positions. Imagine not buying the gap up in LNKD on Friday because you thought the market was too high. It clearly didn’t care what you thought and proceeded to move higher throughout the session.
Therefore, until we get our 3-5 churning or distribution days in the market over a period of 2-4 weeks, we will continue to take long signals but keep the new positions relative to the overall safety of their pattern and the continuation of the overbought market. When the tide changes, we will take our profits when our signals are triggered and will add some protective put positions. Until then, the trend has been our friend throughout 2013 so far and until that changes it is wise to remain its friend.
It will change. That you can be sure of. As of Friday, however, it is still up across all major market averages. Have a great rest of your weekend everyone. I wish you a very profitable upcoming week. Aloha from a very warm and sunny Maui.
TOP CURRENT HOLDINGS – PERCENT RETURN – DATE OF SIGNAL
CSU long – 70% – 9/4/12
CAMP long – 66% – 4/26/12
HEES long – 65% – 9/4/12
FLT long – 48% – 9/6/12
EAC long – 43% – 12/17/12
VRNM short – 43% – 4/10/12
POWR long – 39% – 12/11/12
ASTM short – 32% – 7/17/12
MNTX long – 31% – 1/17/13
AXLL long – 29% – 1/4/13
CPSS long – 25% – 1/31/13
Sunday, February 03, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under strong BUY signals across the board. While we still hate the relationship between volume and price, we realize it simply does not matter in a world where printing currency is the modus operandi. With that being the case, price is our master and price remains in a strong uptrend.
It is Super Bowl Sunday and there is no need to psychoanalyze the action of the previous week. It was strong and there continues to be excellent price action in leading stocks. That is all you need to know. It has been a great start to the year and we shall see if this continues in the month of February.
Enjoy the Super Bowl everyone. Aloha from a very warm and beautiful Maui.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
CSU long – 73% – 9/4/12
HEES long – 65% – 9/4/12
CAMP long – 57% – 4/26/12
VRNM short – 49% – 4/10/12
EAC long – 46% – 12/17/12
FLT long – 35% – 9/6/12
POWR long – 35% – 12/11/12
AXLL long – 34% – 1/4/13
ASTM short – 31% – 7/17/12
GNMK long – 27% – 11/16/12
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under BUY signals across the board. There is nothing still to do or think too much about as the trend higher is smooth and has come under very little pressure minus two minor distribution days in the Nasdaq Composite.
Overall, many traders believe that it is time for us to take a rest or pullback. However, traders have been thinking this for a while and until it actually happens trading on that notion is not wise.
On the sentiment front, it is getting very bullish out there for sure. However, nobody said it can’t get more bullish. Who is to say that bulls can not hit 90% on the Investors Intelligence survey? Who is to say it can not hit 90% on the AAII survey? Who is to say that the VIX can’t trade below 5 or hell even below 1? I know that is quite irrational but nothing about what has happened since 2008 has been rational. There is no need to believe it is time to start now.
We would love to see a pullback here as it would most likely lead to a very nice consolidation period in many leading stocks that would make their upcoming next round of breakouts that much more powerful. Our biggest concern with a non-stop uptrend is the possibility of a hard reversal that might lead to a sustained downturn instead of a buying opportunity. However, that being said, it is all talking points at this juncture.
All that matters is price, and sometimes volume (though it hasn’t mattered since 2009), and that is what we will continue to focus on. Set buy stops on your favorite stocks nearing breakouts to make sure you get long at the exact pivot points and you will do fine. If you wait till the EOD to buy breakouts in this market environment, you greatly increase your chances of getting caught in a normal shakeout/pullback in the stock.
Great luck next week everyone. I wish you all a very prosperous week. Aloha.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
CSU long – 71% – 9/4/12
HEES long – 64% – 9/4/12
CAMP long – 48% – 4/26/12
VRNM short – 48% – 4/10/12
FLT long – 35% – 9/6/12
ASTM short – 35% – 7/17/12
GNMK long – 30% – 11/16/12
POWR long – 29% – 12/11/12
EAC long – 27% – 12/17/12
HIMX long – 26% – 12/19/12
Sunday, January 20, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading portfolios all remain under a strong BUY signal as stocks tacked on more gains the past week with volume coming in higher than the previous week. Overall, it was another strong week and nothing out there is currently of concern on our radar.
Despite the low VIX, the high amount of bulls in the Investors Intelligence survey, and lack of extremely strong volume when we do rally, we find nothing out there that indicates this rally is in danger of failing any time soon. As long as we continue to see breakouts and stocks setting up in tight consolidation patterns, we will continue to operate from the long side accordingly.
While some stocks like SSYS and DDD are beginning to get ahead of themselves, overall there is still a lot of upside potential left in many high-quality CANSLIM stocks and stocks with low P/E ratios that offer high dividends. As long as they continue to move higher and set up as they are, there is simply no reason to be looking for a top any time soon.
Since there is not much to do but continue to set buy stop orders on stocks nearing breakouts, there is not much to address this weekend. While I do hear some commentators trying to call a top, we believe that price is truth and fresh breakouts from strong consolidation patterns are more important than talking heads. We will become cautious on this rally after we either see stocks go into parabolic price gains on arithmetic charts, see stocks breakout and then reverse (like NTE recently) in mass, or see 5-6 distribution days hit the overall market in 2-3 weeks. Until we see this happen, as previously noted, we will continue to hunt for strong leading stocks setting up in consolidation patterns nearing breakouts and trade accordingly.
Remember, even though the VIX is now below the 13 level, it can go much lower. In 2007 the VIX went below 9. That means that we could still see a substantial rally in US equities, despite the low VIX
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
CSU long – 65% – 9/4/12
HEES long – 56% – 9/4/12
CAMP long – 49% – 4/26/12
VRNM short – 44% – 4/10/12
POWR long – 33% – 12/11/12
FLT long – 32% – 9/6/12
ASTM short – 31% – 7/17/12
GNMK long – 28% – 11/16/12
HIMX long – 25% – 12/9/12
Saturday, January 12, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a BUY condition across the board. This past week was further confirmation on the current strong technical condition of the overall market. While it is not perfect and we can argue about volume on the days we do rally, it is what it is and that is a strong current rally favoring all sectors and market cap size across the board.
While this rally is incredibly strong right now with barely any selling able to move the market anything lower than .96% on the Nasdaq, when we do pullback, there are plenty of items out there that could be better. To start off with we hear a lot of chatter about the low VIX. While the VIX is low indeed it is still quite a bit away from the lows it was able to set in 2007 below 9. So to say it is extremely low is a bit of a stretch. However, we do realize that even though individual stocks are creating amazing patterns it sure is not like the amazing patterns we saw in 2003 when the VIX was around the 35 levels. That market had fear in it. This market is very complacent. But it is not an extreme.
Also we note that cyclical stocks with dividends are doing better than growth stocks here on a Relative Strength basis. After four years of a market without a 20% pullback it is safe to say we are long in the tooth and if a final run is occurring it would historically match up with cyclical stocks leading and not growth. We can not predict when the market rally will end, and we certainly will place zero capital on that guess, but we do know that these stocks lead near the end of a long cycle. However, it is QEinfinity, the world is printing, and China is growing like mad with exports up 16% in the most recent report.
Another item we hear talk of is the Investors Intelligence bull/bear survey. Currently the survey shows 51% are bulls compared to 23% that say they are bullish. That is in stark contrast to the powerful rally that started in 2003 when there were around 40% bulls and 55% bears. Once again, not a market full of fear that produces a fresh new bull market. While this is all interesting it is, once again, something you can place no capital on. It is just food for thought, in case everyone thinks that we are in for another 4 years of straight up prices. However, sadly, once again, we might, knowing the insane sociopaths that are in control of the economy and country.
The one last talking point we have heard is that mutual fund inflows were the highest in 13 years right when the market topped back in March 2000. In contrast, mutual fund outflows peaked and continued leading into the 2003 rally. Once again, food for thought, but it is not actionable. Why? Simple, let’s say funds decide to put all that money to work and rally the market 25% before the top. Do you want to miss that 25% rise before “a possible” peak? Of course not.
This is why all that matters right now is price. You set your buy stops and execute them when price breakouts of a trading range or a key moving average. It is that simple. You cut your losses if it does not work and you ride the trend until it ends or a trailing stop is hit.
The key to this market is to not think. Just follow price. When you start running into bad luck, cut back on your trading more and more and more and more until things start working again. Once that happens, then begin to increase size. When you get the “perfect” or “best” or “most opportune” signal (as Jesse Livermore would say picking up a bag of money in the corner just sitting there) then you press. If you have not gotten that signal yet, maybe the market will consolidate and then breakout higher producing that signal. If this is going to be a real rally then we should rally into March, historically speaking.
If this rally has left you behind, you still have plenty of time, if it is real. If it is not, you will be thankful you did not break your rules and chase price. In saying that, a lot of traders that missed YCS and DXJ have been waiting for a pullback. They are still waiting.
Have a great weekend everyone. Aloha.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain – Date of Signal
NTE long – 121% – 8/17/12
CSU long – 61% – 9/4/12
VRNM short – 50% – 4/10/12
HEES long – 47% – 9/4/12
CAMP long – 44% – 4/26/12
ASTM short – 31% – 7/17/12
FLT long – 27% – 9/6/12
POWR long – 27% – 12/11/12
V long – 25% – 8/31/12
Labels:
ASTM,
CAMP,
china,
CSU,
Cyclical Stocks,
DXJ,
FLT,
HEES,
Investors Intelligence Survey,
Jesse Livermore,
Mutual Fund Inflows,
Nasdaq,
NTE,
POWR,
QE,
Small Cap Stocks,
V,
VIX,
VRNM,
YCS
Sunday, January 06, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Model returned to a BUY signal across the board, following the resolve of the Fiscal Cliff. The gap up was powerful and very strong. The strength was broad, volume was well above average, and breakouts were everywhere. On top of that, the price action on Thursday and Friday has been tight and many stocks that did not breakout on Wednesday broke out on Thursday and Friday.
While we were only 25% long, holding about 74% cash, the positions we were long did very well and we are happy with those positions. However, being under-invested before a big move is always disappointing. The good news is that plenty of stocks are building very sound to excellent bases and if this rally has legs we should continue to see leading stocks breakout over the next few weeks.
The important line in the sand to watch is the gap higher. We want to see the gap hold here. If stocks pullback we will be more than happy as that will allow more and more bases to be built in leading stocks. Subsequent rallies would make excellent areas to add to our current positions.
Despite the bullish price action, it still is not an easy market for trend following stock pickers that make EOD decisions. The gap up and down nature of the market makes it difficult to get good fills and the previous fake moves of 2011 and 2012 still haunt the market today. The best remedy for this is to either be a slave to your computer screen from 930am EST to 400pm EST or to set buy stops at key pivot points in stocks that you want to get long. These stops ensure you get long as soon as the stock breaks out. In today’s market if you don’t get a breakout right when it breaks out you run the risk of missing the move as they are coming in one day more often than they ever have in my short 15+ years of investing.
It will be key for stocks this week to hold the gap higher. If the gap higher fails that more than likely means that we can expect more chop. However, I would not expect this to happen. Too many leading stocks are breaking out and some leading stocks have gone straight up off the recent November lows. This is a sign of a healthy uptrend. While we would rather have seen this explosive move off the November lows to give us the best entries in individual stocks, it is what it is.
The Shanghai Composite was your leading index and clue that something was afoot. Its powerful start came on December 5th and its extremely powerful follow-through on December 14th. If you take a look at that index, that is exactly what you want to see. It is a near mirror image of the start of the March 2003 bull market. These two charts (the 2003 Nasdaq bottom and 2012 Shanghai Composite) bottoms should be studied voraciously as that is what perfect stock market bottoms after a long downtrend look like. Simply beautiful.
Aloha and have a wonderful and profitable week!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Purchase
NTE long – 113% – 8/17/12
CSU long – 58% – 9/4/12
VRNM short – 57% – 4/10/12
CAMP long – 54% – 4/26/12
HEES long – 43% – 9/4/12
POWR long – 31% – 12/11/12
ASTM short – 28% – 7/17/12
Labels:
ASTM,
CAMP,
CSU,
Fiscal Cliff,
HEES,
Nasdaq,
NTE,
POWR,
Shanghai Composite,
VRNM
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
After a quick trip back into the NEUTRAL zone, our models all switched to BUY on Monday the 17th. Unlike the previous BUY signal in which no action was taken, this BUY signal was actionable. The move on Monday came with strong above average volume on all four major market indexes. All four indexes also produced pocket pivot point buy signals on the same day. On top of that, banks, homebuilders, and small caps led on the day.
While the signal on Monday was solid, further confirmation came the following day as all indexes followed through on the gains on even higher volume producing a second pocket pivot point buy signal in a row. However, more importantly, all ETFs, leveraged ETFs, inverse ETFs, and inverse leveraged ETFs confirmed the move by moving higher on strong volume. The volume confirmation in all indexes, with bank and homebuilding stocks leading, and an improving macro environment was a good step in the right direction for market bulls.
However, as we saw on Friday, it is definitely not going to be smooth sailing ahead with items like the Fiscal Cliff around to spook traders or algorithm HFT programs. Still, the intraday reversal does show that the market has some solid support in it as traders try to play catch up to the almost daily move higher by the market from the November lows. Many traders who wanted to get long but never had a chance because the market never pulled back will statistically more-than-likely due to the solid foundation of the overall market buy the dips.
So is it up up up and away from here? Nobody knows because absolutely 0.00% of all human beings alive today can accurately predict the future. The fundamentals and technicals do support that thesis. Sadly, this isn’t a free country or a free market anymore. It is a manipulated economy that is orchestrated to serve the bankers and no one else. The ZIRP and QE policy that they pursue to save the most elite of the elite will absolutely cripple the poor and middle class. While this effects traders on the consumer price level we at least can mitigate the damage by being involved in the only place this toilet paper money is going to go. World equity markets. If you have the ability to trade, you have the ability to win in this game where surely many are going to lose.
On that chipper note, I wish everyone a lovely holiday season. I hope everyone has a wonderful time with friends and family. Have yourself a very Merry Christmas and a very relaxing New Years. Aloha from Maui where Christmas never quite feels like Christmas. Hey, it is a little cold. Not long sleeve T-shirt cold. But it’s a little chilly. Once again, aloha.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
NTE long – 103% – 8/17/12
VRNM short – 56% – 4/10/12
CSU long – 45% – 9/4/12
CAMP long – 45% – 4/26/12
ASTM short – 30% – 7/17/12
Labels:
ASTM,
banks,
CAMP,
CSU,
Hombuilders,
NTE,
QE,
Small Caps,
VRNM,
ZIRP
Saturday, December 08, 2012
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
It was a very uncorrelated market the past week with the Nasdaq falling 1%, the DJIA rising 1%, and the Russell 2000 coming in flat. Overall, nothing has changed in our model and we remain under an overall NEUTRAL condition.
Despite being under a current NEUTRAL position, we definitely have a long bias currently in big-cap NYSE stocks. Low P/E stocks that pay a nice dividend that show some fundamental growth are beginning to outperform more speculative technology and small cap stocks. The biggest reason for the divergence is obviously AAPL which makes up about 9.5% of the Nasdaq. The near 9% decline this past week definitely was the anchor preventing the Nasdaq from rising.
However, if you only think that AAPL is the reason for the weakness in the Nasdaq then why did the Russell 2000 lag? It’s because right now big-cap low P/E dividend producing stocks are in favor. Growth and technology is not.
While there was not a ton of market moving news in individual stocks outside of AAPL, there were more oddities this week in more ways than one: 1. The constant overbought and oversold nature of stocks continued this week with some stocks seemingly up every day like GMCR and FB and some stocks actually down everyday like ONTY. 2. Continuous breakout fakeouts in stocks like TDG SWHC ACHC NCR RBA QIHU LPH EDU TOL MHO keep happening. 3. Breakout fakeout re-breakouts in stocks like GEO show up every once in a while. 4. Insane one day price moves in stocks like GRPN which retake their 50 day moving average on strong volume and end up 22% higher on the day.
The bottom line is that the insanity continues and despite some pockets in low P/E dividend stocks there is not much that can be trusted or relied on when it comes to our markets. However, the USA is not the only market in the world. Thankfully, there are other nations out there that actually promote free markets and freedom. World ETFs like EWA EWS EWH EWA and ENZL continue to march to new highs. And in other South East Asia nations the same can be said from VNM, CAF, THD, EPHE, EWM and DXJ. Other ETFs hitting new highs include EWO EWN EWQ EWK EWL EWU. On top of that, India is on fire with INDY, EPI, SCIF, and PIN showing Relative Strength versus our market.
So as you can see, as long as you do not focus on the US markets, you can make money trend following world ETF shares. Especially South East Asia. Remember, the world is nothing but a flow chart of capital. If that is the case, India, China, Thailand, Malaysia, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, the Philippines, Australia, and New Zealand will continue to dominate over the next decade as money leaves the United States and moves on to the next round of major growth economies.
So while we may have an insane Congress with an insane Federal Reserve bailing out and taking care of insane banksters with QE and ZIRP, trend followers can pack their bags and take their money to South East Asia. This is a trend I believe we will continue to see well into the near-term and long-term future. You can’t be $16,000,000,000,000 in debt on the book ($86,000,000,000,000 possibly in unfunded debts) and expect the growth of the 80s and 90s to E-V-E-R return. Especially in a world where big corporations gladly hire cheap overseas labor and grant themselves huge bonuses and paychecks at the expense of the workers wages and benefits. It’s a different world. The manufacturing jobs that everyone keeps screaming that need to come back are N-E-V-E-R coming back. Ever.
While everyone is upset about the trendless messy market we have right now, remember, on the other side of the world the trend is clear. Over in our neck of the woods we remain under a NEUTRAL condition with a bullish bias to big cap dividend-yielding low P/E stocks and a bearish bias on the overall macro economy.
Aloha and have a wonderful weekend!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
NTE long – 123% – 8/17/12
AVD long – 121% – 1/10/12
VRNM short – 58% – 4/10/12
CAMP long – 47% – 4/26/12
CSU long – 41% – 9/4/12
ASTM short – 33% – 7/17/12
Sunday, December 02, 2012
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading portfolio remains under a NEUTRAL signal, despite the strong gains this past week in the stock market. The gains from last week were very strong but it came from a very oversold condition and was straight up in a V-shaped formation backed by zero accumulation.
While we are used to the stock market rallying on zero volume following heavy volume selloffs, we are at the same time still not used to it. Its a learning process adapting to the current market we have been in the past two years, following 200 years of normal price and volume relationships in equity and futures markets. Therefore, despite the strong gains, we remain in a NEUTRAL condition.
This being said we do see constructive action underneath in the stock market. We had a lot of stocks fly past logical buy points that we were watching the past week. These stocks, instead of pulling back and allowing for a “safe” entry, continued to rally higher. Some examples include PRLB, FB, GMCR, and HIMX. We also see other stocks working on possible basing formations in big heavy volume leaders such as GOOG, PCLN, AAPL, and AMZN. We also see some new leadership in the form of 3D-printing stocks like SSYS and DDD. So while we remain under a NEUTRAL condition we will be more than willing to switch to a BUY mode.
We would like to see the market base sideways or move lower on lower volume and then begin a strong move higher before this signal is generated. If we do not see the market pullback and instead are up 2% on lower volume Monday we will be obey the model and switch to BUY. However, we would make any position small as we are overbought short-term and simply have no volume. Historically, December is a bullish month for the stock market and it does rise on little volume most of the time. Therefore, volume is not much of a concern right now as the overall overbought condition following the V-shaped rally in the indexes.
The bottom line is that while we see some constructive action in the market and it is seasonally a time to be bullish it still is not good enough to press bets here. We will continue to operate on the smallest level we have ever operated on at Big Wave Trading, continuing to keep an extremely high level of cash until better chart patterns can build in the stock market. 2012 has been the worst year ever going back to 1996 in terms of win/loss pain/gain ratios. Thankfully, due to trading small and getting smaller and smaller and smaller as the year went on we avoided the losses that the trend following wizards were dealt in the month of October and surely have been dealt in the month of November. In that regard, the past two months have been “wins.” Overall, though, losing money is never a winning situation. Still a 10% drawdown sure as hell beats a 50% drawdown. When you are wrong, get smaller. When you continue to be wrong, get even smaller. If you are still wrong, get as small as you can or do not trade at all.
This has been the ultimate lesson from this trendless yet extremely choppy/volatile low-trading range market the past two years. The other lesson learned is to never overly trust one particular system. Diversifying amongst a bunch of different backtested systems that perform differently in each market and knowing how to weigh each system in each market environment has been another lesson well learned.
Aloha and I wish you all the best during the upcoming week!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain – Date of Signal
AVD long – 130% – 1/10/12
NTE long – 124% – 8/17/12
VRNM short – 56% – 4/10/12
CAMP long – 54% – 4/26/12
CSU long – 43% – 9/4/12
ASTM short – 34% – 7/17/12
MAGS short – 30% – 4/18/12
Labels:
ASTM,
AVD,
CAMP,
CSU,
MAGS,
NTE,
performance,
Stock Market Analysis,
VRNM
Sunday, November 25, 2012
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio switched from a successful SELL signal back to a NEUTRAL signal the past week as the DJIA, SP500, and Russell 2000 retook their 200 day moving averages. The Nasdaq remains below its respective 200 day moving average but that is due to AAPL and we took notice of last Friday’s very bullish intraday reversal on AAPL coming from very oversold conditions. Overall, we see it as constructive price action in the overall market.
While volume declined each day the past week, due to the holiday, it really doesn’t matter. This market has already proven that volume or no volume when the Fed is printing money and manipulating interest rates it simply doesn’t matter. Higher volume selloffs followed by lower volume rallies have been the norm since 2009. Until the ZIRP policy is abolished, we do not believe this will change any time soon.
The biggest problem with the low volume rallies is that prior to 2009 low volume rallies would not cause the model to switch like it does now. This unfortunately means that there will be more false signals and thus more times when we will have to cut our losses. Instead of watching the model switch 5-15 times in a year it is now switching around 20-30 switches per year the past two years. This simply would not happen in a normal market environment where the Fed basically lets asset prices rise and fall based on where the market expects fair value.
In the intermediate term we are in a seasonal uptrend cycle as we head into the final month of the year. Like always, January will be more-than-likely be the real tell to the trend of December. But being that it is December and that we are refusing to sell off after leading CANSLIM stocks have cracked across the board it means that the odds are in favor of prices rising going into the end of the year.
However, if you think we have any positions based on that assumption, you are 100% incorrect. All signals are price based. If prices break higher, we go long. If prices break lower, we go short. If we are wrong, we cut our losses immediately. There is no deviation from this model based on any indiscretions we may reserve about future market prices.
I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. Aloha and have a great upcoming week.
Top Current Holdings – Date of Purchase – Signal Date
AVD long – 129% – 1/10/12
NTE long – 111% – 8/17/12
VRNM short – 54% – 4/10/12
CAMP long – 51% – 4/26/12
ASTM short – 40% – 7/17/12
CSU long – 37% – 9/4/12
MAGS short – 25% – 4/18/12
Sunday, November 18, 2012
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a SELL signal on all indexes. However, we do take note of the positive price action and strong volume (even though it was options expiration related) on the indexes and more importantly on the oversold beloved-stock named Apple (AAPL). Volume on AAPL was the highest since March and comes on an excellent intraday reversal. We call that positive price action.
However, there is no way, based on Friday alone, to know if this is the end of the downtrend or just an oversold bounce. Some of the positives going for the market is the fact it is very oversold on the short term, the crowd is increasingly becoming more bearish, and AAPL’s price and volume move on Friday. Some of the negatives are that there is still no obvious rotation from old leading stocks into new leading stocks, most recent strong sectors (IBB XHB ITB) are starting to crack on heavy volume, and despite sentiment growing more bearish there was absolutely zero fear in the most recent pullback. Everyone truly believes Ben will save us from every big bad market decline.
The only way we see it at Big Wave Trading is that you must keep an open mind to everything and anything in this new QE-fed world. There is only one two ways to trade this market: trend following signals and value investing. The old momentum methodologies that made position traders like me wealthy during our early career have been missing since the 2008/2009 stock market bottom. This is a direct correlation of a QE/ZIRP policy. So, even though it seems the market is not done selling off, you must keep an open mind in the regards that Ben will indeed come to the markets rescue any time it even attempts to move lower.
We have taken notice of some stocks that made very strong moves on Friday. However, we will need to see further positive price action next week or the week after to know if it is more than a one day options expiration wonder. The social networking site FB sure has been putting in some impressive price and volume action lately. That stock is definitely a stock that should be on all trend following wizards radar. It is too much of a cult stock and has so much volume that it is mandatory active and inactive traders watch this stock for trend following signals.
Overall, we remain extremely heavy cash at Big Wave Trading due to the inability to trust price and volume action in the current choppy tape. Without any spike in the VIX, it is hard to believe a real bottom is here and while we are short some index ETFs we will be ready to reverse those positions ASAP if we continue to see further price appreciation. At the same time we do know another 2010 and 2011 pullback is more than likely to happen sooner or later and we will be ready to act accordingly when the time does come calling. And come calling it will one day. You can not keep an artificial economy up forever. Can you? Maybe you can. It’s a much different world than it was before QE. Get used to it. I doubt it changes any time soon. I doubt it changes any time not too soon (4 years at least).
On that chipper note, have a great weekend everyone. Surf is up on the north shore and the sun is shining. Aloha!!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain – Date of Signal
AVD long – 112% – 1/10/12
NTE long – 102% – 8/17/12
VRNM short – 58% – 4/10/12
CAMP long – 47% – 4/26/12
ASTM short – 37% – 7/17/12
CSU long – 33% – 9/4/12
Sunday, November 04, 2012
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a SELL signal on the SP500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, and DJIA. The NYSE switched to BUY signal yesterday and subsequently re-switched to a NEUTRAL signal by the close of today’s trading.
Two words can sum up this week of trading: random, ugly. Another word many traders were using this week was confusing. While we remained under the 50 day moving average on all important (I would not consider the NYSE “important” per se) indexes, the action on Thursday had the type of move that signals a short-term low has been hit. The previous three to five sessions in the big indexes prior to Thursday indicated a market that wanted to continue to bounce. However, today completely put a wrench in that assumption.
The worst part of this whipsaw move the past two days is that our short ETF positions gave a partial cover signal and our exposure was reduced at the open on the gap only to see the market sell off all day confirming the original signal. It is what it is. Now what?
Well, technically, nobody knows. Still, with this kind of action in the indexes, following the already in motion sell off, it can be said that based on history the market should continue to sell off. However, based on the history of the past four years, the market should establish a low around here on very little volume and then rally to new highs on even lower volume. That has been the pathetic, but real, pattern the past four years. It’s outside of anything you can backtest on USA markets but it is what we have.
Our current methodology has us in a very heavy cash position, with some current long positions still working, and a couple of hedged ETF shorts to counterbalance the longs. As these longs give final profit taking or cut loss exit signals, we will increasingly become more weighed to the short side via our ETF short positions. If we do find support here, our longs should continue to work and we will exit the ETF short positions.
As for current trading opportunities we are finding very few. There are a couple of recent pumps that are in shortable positions but you can’t place large amounts of capital in these cheap pumps. There are very little to zero stocks setting up in current strong technical patterns, with proper volume characteristics, that lead to high percentage breakouts. On top of that, there continues to be no trend following signals via our trend following methodology in individual stocks.
We have noticed strength in a few world stock markets, particularly singling out the South East area. It will be interesting to see if the money continues to flow into these advancing nations and out of declining nations like the United States. Follow the money. The money never lies. Price is the only truth, in a world full of professional and well-payed liars.
We wish everyone a great weekend. Maybe next week we can get a more trend-friendly market. The current chop of the small trends that we do get make it nearly impossible to make any significant gains as we must position size accordingly. Aloha everyone!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
AVD long – 120% – 1/10/12
NTE long – 59% – 8/17/12
VRNM short – 51% – 4/10/12
CAMP long – 48% – 4/26/12
MAGS short – 29% – 4/18/12
CSU long – 28% – 9/4/12
ASTM short – 25% – 7/17/12
Labels:
ASTM,
AVD,
CAMP,
CSU,
MAGS,
NTE,
performance,
Stock Market Analysis,
VRNM
Friday, October 26, 2012
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading portfolio remains under a SELL signal that was triggered on 10/19/12.
It was another down week for the overall stock market and it was another above average weekly volume sell off for the Nasdaq composite. This now brings the total of above average volume weeks on the downside this year to 6 vs. 0 up weeks on above average volume. Despite the constant distribution that we have seen the past four years, it simply has not mattered as we are in a QEn environment.
This means that despite the weak action in the overall market, and stocks following earnings lately, it would be unwise to assume that the next rally attempt, if it does come on lower volume, will fail. We have seen time and time again how higher volume sell offs are supported around the 200 day moving averages on lower volume and then the next thing you know we are hitting new highs on below average volume.
Therefore, despite being under a SELL signal with short positions in the DJIA and SP500, we have an overall neutral/cash bias at Big Wave Trading across the board. We are prepared for the market to find support here and rally and we are ready for the magic bullet of QE to finally run out of firepower. Either way, we are ready.
The most telling issue in this downtrend is two fold, for us. One, we still have long positions that were initiated in the previous uptrend that continue to trend higher above key short-term and long-term moving averages. If more of our longs were outright breaking down on huge volume, we would be more “worried” about falling prices. Second, we continue to receive zero extremely high reward/low risk ratio short signals. Without these “screaming” shorts, we find it best to stay neutral on the overall downtrend taking only the 50 DMA trend following signals in the market indexes.
Since June we have not had a single stock produce what we would call a 10 out of 10 long or short signal. The new signals that generate, since June, have at best been a 7 or an 8 out of 10. This is not terribly surprising considering the magnitude of this artificial low volume stock market rally the past four years. However, it is annoying as it prevents us from making any substantial money to the upside. Until we receive these “near-perfect” signals, we will continue to operate on a shoestring basis giving preference to trend following signals in high priced stocks, extremely high quality CANSLIM stocks, and index ETFs that trade significant volume.
If the market finds support around the 200 day moving averages of the major indexes and we can rally back above the 50 day moving average, obviously the SELL signal will be negated and we will be back looking to operate on the long side. However, until we start to rally on higher volume, sell off on lower volume and then rally on higher volume, on the market indexes, there is no way we will even think about increasing our size. That is unless that 10 out of 10 shows up but it is hard to believe they will when the overall market’s volume is artificial. Low volume rallies followed by heavy volume sell offs that are then followed by more low volume rallies do not produce the quality chart patterns that we require (along with growth in the fundamentals) before going heavily long in any one position.
For now, we remain under a SELL signal and will operate accordingly. Cash is king, right now, for those with a time horizon longer than one day. Aloha and have a wonderful weekend everyone!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
AVD long – 143% – 1/10/12
NTE long – 59% – 8/17/12
CAMP long – 56% – 4/26/12
VRNM short – 46% – 4/10/12
MAGS short – 30% – 4/18/12
HEB short – 29% – 9/24/12
CSU long – 29% – 9/4/12
SHF long – 28% – 8/1/12
TAYC long – 26% – 6/15/12
ASTM short – 26% – 7/17/12
Sunday, October 21, 2012
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
THE COLUMN BELOW WAS A PREMIUM MEMBERSHIP COLUMN PUBLISHED ON FRIDAY FOR BIG WAVE TRADING MEMBERS. ANALYSIS SPECIFIC TO TRADING POSITIONS HAS BEEN REMOVED.
Happy anniversary of the October 19, 1987 crash everyone!!
Well, well, well. It sure was an interesting day to say the least. Today’s option expiration was nothing short of exciting as stocks sold off on heavy above-average higher-than-the-day-before volume. Stocks and stock indexes didn’t just sell off, they cratered.
The weakness in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 finally spread over today into the SP 500 and DJIA thrusting all four major indexes into a SELL signal on our market trending model. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 were currently under a NEUTRAL signal and the SP 500 and DJIA were under a BUY signal but today’s sell off was confirmed everyone thus switching everything into a SELL. It doesn’t matter where you look. The indexes, futures, the options chain, ETFs, or inverse ETFs. Wherever you look, volume exploded higher.
What didn’t explode higher but finally moved was VIX. VIX has finally begun moving in the direction those of us at Big Wave Trading believed it should have started moving in on 9/25. While the move came on convincing volume, and the CBOE reported the highest weekly trading volume ever in VIX futures, a BUY signal was not triggered in VXX/UVXY/TVIX.
[MEMBERS CONTENT ONLY].
[MEMBERS CONTENT ONLY].
Getting back to the overall market, it was the fifth time this year that the Nasdaq has closed lower for the week on above average 50-week volume. As just mentioned, this now makes it five times that this has happened versus 0 times the Nasdaq has closed higher on above average 50-week volume. 5 – 0. For the year, the NYSE is actually up 1 vs. 0 times down. But the NYSE is not where you find your dynamic exciting technology based growth stocks. Those are found on the Nasdaq and Russell 2000. When you consider the volume pattern of the Nasdaq and then take a look at the recent slope of the Relative Strength line of the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 compared to the SP 500 you can see that we have a potential problem brewing here.
The Relative Strength line of the Nasdaq is simply imploding here nearing the December 2011 levels. Meanwhile, price is nowhere near those lows. If this trend continues, watch out! The Nasdaq and Russell 2000, in healthy uptrends, lead the market. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 start to lag the NYSE when a rally is on its last legs. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 lead the market down when a downtrend is starting in the stock market. What stage are we in now? You are correct. This obviously means that now is the time to be cautious.
This is especially the case when you look at the recent action in AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, PCLN, and LULU. After taking a look at those, take a look at the big giant bellweathers like IBM, INTC, MSFT, SBUX, MCD, and GE. Notice the same bearish action? Then take a look at your leading biotech stocks like ALXN, BIIB, VRTX, and PCYC. Is there anything surviving? Of course.
The bank stocks like GS, BAC, and JPM are acting like there is nothing wrong and of course for the master criminals that run these banks and the USA there is not. On top of that, they need to make sure real estate prices go up so that all their real estate holdings continue to make them wealthier and wealthier (If these sociopaths CREATED their own businesses this would not be a problem. They didn’t.) on the backs of the middle class. On that note the XHB is fine. HOV, TOL, PHM, BZH, MTH, MHO, LEN, KBH, etc. all look like they were completely oblivious to the carnage gripping the market today.
If you see the big banks (KBE) and home builders (XHB) start to roll over, then you can be sure this uptrend is finished. To me, it already is, as I follow the Nasdaq/Russell 2000 as market leaders. However, if these stocks continue to rally, show no damage, and we begin to find a floor to this selling, I would expect that the uptrend could definitely continue. I mean, it is a Fed based QE driven stock market. When stocks sell off, they step up to make sure their jobs are safe for now. I am sure one day this will stop working. Until then, the theme don’t fight the fed still rings loud and true.
No one can predict the future in the stock market. I will not try to either. While it looks like we are about to crack wide open, we could easily find support and rally higher on no volume. Hell, we did it in 2009, we did it in 2010, we did it in 2011, and we did it earlier this year in 2012. Why not a fifth time?
[MEMBERS CONTENT ONLY].
[MEMBERS CONTENT ONLY].
It looks ugly but it has looked ugly before. Let’s see what happens next week. Have a great weekend everyone. Aloha.
[MEMBERS CONTENT ONLY].
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain – Date of Signal
AVD long – 139% – 1/10/12
NTE long – 62% – 8/17/12
CAMP long – 59% – 4/26/12
CLGX long – 52% – 6/19/12
SVNT long – 44% – 9/10/12
VRNM short – 39% – 4/10/12
CSU long – 32% – 9/4/12
MAGS short – 31% – 4/18/12
SHF long – 28% – 8/1/12
ASTM short – 26% – 7/17/12
HEB short – 25% – 9/24/12
Sunday, October 14, 2012
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio is currently under a NEUTRAL condition. The model switched from BUY to NEUTRAL on Tuesday due to the Nasdaq closing below the 50 day moving average on average volume.
Our model expected this switch to occur after Apple (AAPL) closed below the 50 day moving average on strong volume on Friday October 5th. On September 24th Apple began to sell off on above average volume and continued to do so for another four sessions before finally breaking down on October 5th.
Another problem we started to also notice was the overall lagging of the Nasdaq’s Relative Strength line compared to the SP-500′s Relative Strength line. While the Nasdaq was breaking out to new highs in September, its RS line was severely lagging no where near its previous March highs. In recent weeks we have seen the Nasdaq’s RS line simply implode compared to the overall market.
This RS lag is even more severe in the Russell 2000 full of vibrant young growth stocks. This RS lag is overall problematic for a variety of reasons. You normally want to see new exciting growth companies and revolutionary technology companies lead a market. Not stodgy old safe dividend producing large capitalization stocks. While a trend is a trend, the strength of a trend is directly correlated to what type of stocks are leading a market.
Another problem we have witnessed during this switch to NEUTRAL is that we have not seen a rotation from the leading growth stocks that have come under some intense recent selling into new leading growth stocks. On top of that, we noticed that WFC and JPM are putting in low-volume breakout high-volume fakeout reversal moves. GS and BAC appear to want to do this too. As the rulers of the world go, so will go the stock market. If the Lords of Finance sell off, the market is going to sell off.
So we have a market under heavy distribution, leading stocks like AAPL and PCLN possibly rolling over, banks (KBE KRE) putting in breakout fakeout moves, and an extremely low VIX on top of all of this. What does all this point to? A high probability that we will enter into a SELL signal at some point and will begin to rework the short side/long put side of the market.
However! However. There is always the Fed and Ben Bernanke. They have already intervened during every single one of the last market pullbacks. What is to say this will not be any different? They have already screwed the poor and middle class over with their “zero-percent-CDs-forever-policy,” allowing the folks that do not have time to invest in the markets no chance what-so-ever to get ahead. They have already bailed out failing corporations effectively killing free markets. They have continued to print worthless dollar bills at the push of a button for years now, effectively destroying its purchasing power thus causing massive inflation that hurts the folks that can’t save money in the first place due to the low interest rates.
So do we think that an actual prolonged downtrend will start thus allowing a new fresh crisp batch of leaders to rise from the ashes when the market is ready to move higher again? Nope. We sure don’t. We can only hope that one day the Fed decides to let the market do what the market needs to do but we are not going to hold our breaths. The first area of support we are looking at is the 200 day moving averages on all leading market indexes.
The bottom line, for right now, and I mean right now, is that we are NEUTRAL. We will take long and short signals as they arise. We are extremely picky here and if it is not perfect or near perfect for the reason we want to conduct the trade, we will not take the trade. On a final note, speaking of perfect, we did not have one technical/fundamental or even technical alone “perfect” chart setup during the entire uptrend from June to September. This was the first time since the 2009 uptrend which only produced CANSLIM quality long signals and zero “perfect” CANSLIM/”perfect” chart signals. To me that tells me all I need to know about the quality of the uptrend itself.
Aloha everyone and have a wonderful and profitable week.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return- Date of Signal
AVD long – 136% – 1/10/12
CAMP long – 61% – 4/26/12
NTE long – 57% – 8/17/12
SVNT long – 53% – 9/10/12
CLGX long – 53% – 6/19/12
VRNM short – 39% – 4/10/12
PRXI short – 37% – 3/30/12
SHF long – 35% – 8/1/12
MAGS short – 31% – 4/18/12
CSU long – 30% – 9/4/12
ASTM short – 25% – 7/17/12
Sunday, October 07, 2012
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
There will not be a weekend update this week. We apologize for the inconvenience.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
AVD long – 145% – 1/10/12
CAMP long – 72% – 4/26/12
SVNT long – 61% – 9/10/12
NTE long – 60% – 8/17/12
CLGX long – 58% – 6/19/12
VRNM short – 36% – 4/10/12
PRXI short – 36% – 3/30/12
SHF long – 35% – 8/1/12
CSU long – 30% – 9/4/12
MAGS short – 28% – 4/18/12
Saturday, September 29, 2012
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a BUY signal from August 3rd, following the past week’s market pullback. The pullback was overall orderly with only Tuesday being a session of concern. The fact that there were many stocks that made big moves following that session and that the market did not follow through immediately with the selling shows that the uptrend remains intact and in solid shape.
Despite the low VIX and high % of bulls to bears in the Investors Intelligence survey, the atmosphere remains overall toxic. Individual investors based on the AAII survey and the real-time Finviz survey continue to point to a public that is overall skeptic to bearish. The crowd is definitely not overall bullish. At best, it can be said that sentiment data points remain mixed.
What doesn’t remain mixed is price. Price is still trending higher on all time frames except the most short-term. If we get another distribution day or two, we might have some more short-term problems. However, the action in individual stocks in regards to long-term base structures, along with stocks already hitting new highs, indicates that the market might want to trend higher for a bit. I just would not expect any kind of explosive gains. Especially when the macro picture is at best not bad. 1% to 2% GDP growth is never going to light the fire underneath a country’s stock market.
For now, we will stick with this slow uptrend that is still not offering any what we would classify as “perfect” or even “near perfect” long signals. Trend following big priced stocks that trade a ton of volume by buying in the money options with low implied volatility as they cross above and below whatever moving average one uses continues to be a superior methodology compared to the once extremely profitable tried and true combination CANSLIM/momentum methodology.
Aloha everyone and I hope everyone is having a wonderful weekend!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
AVD long – 141% – 1/10/12
SVNT long – 70% – 9/10/12
NTE long – 61% – 8/17/12
CLGX long – 52% – 6/19/12
CAMP long – 46% – 4/26/12
VRNM short – 35% – 4/10/12
SHF long – 34% – 8/1/12
PRXI short – 33% – 3/30/12
MAGS short – 28% – 4/18/12
STX long – 25% – 6/29/12
Saturday, September 22, 2012
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio continues to be under a BUY signal that was generated on August 3rd. The past week was another overall solid week with solid intraday price action outside of Friday. Another positive was the Nasdaq having two up sessions on volume well above average, continuing the trend from the previous week.
We continue to believe that this uptrend can last longer based on the overall public (AAII Survey bulls: 37.5%) still not showing that bullish fever and the NYSE short interest ratio sitting around 5-year highs at 21.03. As long as the trend is up, the public is not overly bullish, and the short interest ratio remains high, the trend should continue to be our friend.
We know what to look for if that changes but so far we have absolutely no signs of a change in trend coming. In fact the last distribution day on the Nasdaq was on August 21st (according to Telechart’s data). That is one month without a distribution day. Clearly, for now, there is nothing to worry about. We will cross that bridge when we get there.
As for stocks, we continue to find a ton of attractive long positions and continue to see many others setting up. If this continues, it bodes well for the continuation of the rally. Despite some trading sessions the past week being quite boring, there were plenty of stocks that made exciting dynamic price moves higher. Seeing these stocks move like they are on quiet days is a clear sign of real accumulation.
The only bad news, so far, in this rally is that we have not had a single stock set up in a “perfect” setup. However, that isn’t surprising as beautiful green filled chart patterns have been in decline since the 2008 crash. Trend following is definitely where it is at. Playing hot charts is not. I am sure one day that will change but as of right now it has not. We’ll keep hunting. Have a lovely rest of your weekend and aloha.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
AVD long – 141% – 1/10/12
SVNT long – 70% – 9/10/12
NTE long – 65% – 8/17/12
CLGX long – 58% – 6/19/12
SHF long – 36% – 8/1/12
CAMP long – 33% – 4/26/12
PRXI short – 32% – 3/30/12
MAGS short – 30% – 4/18/12
VRNM short – 30% – 4/10/12
STX long – 25% – 6/29/12
Labels:
AAII Survey,
AVD,
CAMP,
CLGX,
MAGS,
Nasdaq,
NTE,
NYSE Short Interest Ratio,
PRXI,
SHF,
STX,
SVNT,
Trend Following,
VRNM
Friday, September 14, 2012
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading portfolio remains under a BUY signal, generated on August 3rd, as the market continues to move higher on well above average volume. On Thursday, for the first time during this rally, we saw the indexes, ETFs, leveraged ETFs, inverse ETFs, and leveraged inverse ETFs all move in the right direction on well above average volume. This is the confirmation we need to start to increase positions in new longs and to look to buy the dips when the dips do come in leading stocks that are short term too extended from their 50 or 200 day moving averages.
The increase in volume during the past seven trading sessions and the improvement in the breadth of the advance/decline line and the upside to downside volume is excellent to see, if you are long and/or are expecting further price gains. September and October have historically been months when the stock market stages strong rallies. March is another month where powerful rallies begin. This rally started before Labor Day and the current action is definite confirmation that the trend for now must be respected.
Now, I know a lot of individuals are upset at why the market is rallying (backed by Quantitative Easing). I share your concern and agree that it is the wrong policy for wiping the slate clean and starting a real economic rebound. Putting a band aid on a femur shaft fracture isn’t going to fix what is really wrong. However, maybe they don’t want to fix what is really wrong. And this is my point. Price is all that matters to us.
These individuals that are in charge around the world, that make horrible decisions against the voice and concerns of the tax payers, are going to do what is in there best interest. Not in what is our best interest. What is in your best interest, knowing this, is to take control of your future by learning how to invest in a solid time tested proven trend following methodology. That is the only way those in the bottom will ever be able to save any money. With inflation the way it is and with bank CDs rates so low, what other choice do you have? That is what we are here for. Aloha and enjoy your weekend!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain – Date of Purchase
AVD long – 115% – 1/10/12
BVSN short – 82% – 3/19/12
NTE long – 54% – 8/17/12
CLGX long – 54% – 6/19/12
CAMP long – 32% – 4/26/12
PRXI short – 30% – 3/30/12
VRNM short – 29% – 4/10/12
PXD long – 28% – 7/17/12
MAGS short – 28% – 4/18/12
SVNT long – 25% – 9/10/12
Saturday, September 08, 2012
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading portfolio remains under a BUY condition with strong confirmation of the original signal coming on Thursday when every single important stock market index we track broke out convincingly on enough volume to qualify the breakout as strong. The tight intraday action on Friday with a HOD close in the NYSE and SP500 confirm the move on Thursday.
This strong move is coming on the back of the NYSE short interest ratio hanging out at 5-year highs around 21.27. This breakout is also coming with bulls, bears, and those on the sidelines coming in at exactly 33% across the board. That means that NYSE short interest is very high, the crowd is not particularly bullish, and stocks are breaking out everywhere with some big names making clearly bullish moves. GS, BAC, CS, JPM, DB, GM, and many other corporate global behemoths are making very bullish moves.
If the crowd continues to stay bearish we could see a very powerful short covering rally released. The only odd thing about this move is that it is coming with bulls at 52% and bears at 24% on the Institutional Investor survey. However, bears crossed above the bulls way back in October where the market actually bottomed and it is still nowhere the 5-year bulls high of 62% and the bears low of 15%.
Our advice is to follow the price action. While it has been pretty shady for the past couple of years, in terms of trusting this price action, there have been times trends have developed. Let’s hope this time it is for more than one or two months. The potential good news that this rally could last is that we received a lot of strong buy signals in high quality individual stocks last week and this week before the Thursday breakouts in all major important market averages. We shall see what the upcoming weeks and months leading into the election give us.
Remember, one or two distribution days is not reason to sell the market short. The key is to watch for 4 to 6 of these days showing up over a two or three week time frame. If you see that, then we can start to worry. However, if that happens I am sure buying unlimited bonds in the USA is not out of the question for the ugly monsters that are Congress and the Federal Reserve. Aloha and have a wonderful and fun weekend!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain – Date of Signal
AVD long – 114% – 1/10/12
BVSN short – 82% – 3/19/12
NTE long – 46% – 8/17/12
CLGX long – 46% – 6/19/12
VRNM short – 37% – 4/10/12
CAMP long – 35% – 4/26/12
PRXI short – 31% – 3/30/12
MAGS short – 29% – 4/18/12
Labels:
AVD,
BVSN,
CAMP,
CLGX,
MAGS,
NTE,
performance,
PRXI,
Stock Market Analysis,
VRNM
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)