The markets started the day alright then started to drift down the whole day, until the last hour of the day. The last hour provided a nice rally that left the bears who were calling for DOW -200 quiet and sad. The close in the upper half of the daily range gave the day's action a bullish feel to it. However further weakness would be welcome to get those extra negative bears pumping their shorts harder. That would guarantee a nice rally.
Earnings are good and most companies are having no problem beating expectations. This continues to prove that the economy is still strong and not as weak as the ridiculous bears think. The market could fail to reach new highs and rollover and make new lows, but until that happens why root for it? It doesn't make sense. The big money is made on the long side and their is plenty of money to be made in tech and insurance stocks right now.
So, once again, it is silly and plain stupid to be bearish when the trends are up. Until the trends turn down and these nice charts in tech start failing, I refuse to be "brainwashed" like so many traders I listen to in chat rooms. No wonder this job is easier to those that can take emotions out of the market. Every day I trade I realize why the good traders are good traders. They are able to keep their emotions under control and play the trend no matter what direction it is in at all times.
Great luck and remember: YOUR OPINIONS AND MY OPINIONS ARE WORTH NOTHING TO THE STOCK MARKET. NO ONE CARES AND THE MARKET ESPECIALLY DOESNT CARE. That is the cold hard truth. Our opinions are useless and always will be to the market. What matters is facts and below are the facts.
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4 comments:
NASDAQ, NYSE, SP 500 saw a distribution day...
Although most indexes closed in the upper half, and there were signs of indecision(small candle body) shouldn't it be worrying to see a distribution day 4 days after a follow through?
Most indexes did'nt close below -.3% which is a good sign I guess.
After this rotation in leadership should we start seeing the other indexes follow-through anytime soon?
Yesterday was not a distribution day. You dont close in the upper half of a daily range, if it distribution.
So, no, it is not worrisome
Even though we had a follow through days, I don't see good bases. In fact, GOLD, Health care, Gaming, restaurants etc., are down today.
I feel we will go down and test the low one more time and go up or continue to go down.
Time will tell.
-Anonymous
I would have to disagree. I am finding a lot (however not A TON) of nice bases but the stocks have already broken out from them.
If this rally fails I can understand why. But if you read my post from Monday you can see I was already long all the good stocks that came out of great bases.
The fact is the bases have already been broken out of to the upside in tech and insurance stocks. There is plenty of new leaders across these sectors below:
INTERNET-CONTENT
COMPUTER-DESKTOP SOFT
RETAIL-CONSUMER ELEC
COMP SOFT-SECURITY
COMP SOFT-MED
COMP SOFT - DESIGN
ELEC- PARTS DISTRIBUTOR
INSURANCE - BROKERS
These industries have tons of stocks that have nice bases.
If the Fed keeps hiking rates, we WILL go into a recession. But until then the more bears that think we are going to new lows the better the chances of a rally.
I tell you what there is still too many people who think we are about to crash. I have a feeling we are going higher with everything I have been hearing since this rally started.
I haven't seen a market down so little yet have so many bears in the crowd since March 2003.
Dont get me wrong, this is NO March 2003. But still until the yield curve inverts, the current new leaders breakdown, and we follow through to the downside with more distribution days I will take the money from the long side everyday.
BTW, anyone tell PRLS that we are in a bear market????? It is up 200% since April. That is a tech related stock.
I think some people watch to much CNN. It takes a unique individual to trade the action and not try to predict the future. :-)
PS..gold, hc, gaming, restaurants arent leaders. They can go down as much as they want to, it doesnt matter. The old leaders were oil, housing, and metals. The new leaders are tech and insurance. These are the groups of interest.
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