These charts that are setup in extremely bullish patterns right now, however, will probably be destroyed on Monday. However, just the thought of me thinking this might be the bearishness needed to make this rally attempt work. The bottom line today was that my scans "went off" with a ton of stocks giving long signals. Not only that but there are now so many stocks in my watch list that if this market starts moving, I am 100% sure I am going to have no problem making a lot of money.
Even if it doesn't work out I am already back to almost a 10% gain after the great day in a few stocks I am heavily invested in for the YTD. If a rally would occur now I think I would have no problem beating most of my investing "partners" in the current market. I see a lot of bearishness on bullish stocks and bullishness on ugly bank stocks. That is just what I like to see by the general public. That along with the high NYSE short-interest ratio and no one believing that stocks can rally because Cramer says the market is oversold and an index is giving him a buy signal. This time, for a change, Cramer will be right. Unlike his Action Alert Portfolio which is down 8% YTD; almost an 18% difference in performance YTD. Maybe that is why he has to promote all those books and give away his service for a 50% discount. I can personally tell you right now that he WAS ONCE a GREAT trader. But now he is an also-ran and I hate to admit it but a site I once loved and had the GREAT opportunity to work for, for four months, is now a pile of crap.
The junk that I read on that site today was equivalent to a pile of trash in my backyard. It was simply disturbing for someone that has mastered the CANSLIM system, like me and so many others, to be forced to read the N O I S E that comes from that place. I work for some great sites and every once in a while some great material is out there but overall 80% of it is horrible advice.
Like the recommendation to go long PAL and SWC. I have NEVER heard anyone "so sure" of themselves as this particular writer was but man o man those are charts I would not even allow .01% of my assets to go into. When you have stocks out there like NCOC, ICO, QTWW, MA, CPST, and XIDE, why would you waste your time in stocks losing money? I can give you 5 stocks that start with the letter A that are setup for potential huge gains, IF THE MARKET CAN GET ITS ACT TOGETHER, that is.
I don't care how great a stock is as long as this market wants to do the exact opposite of a previous big day, then we will never make clear easy progress. However, like I continue to tell you, if you are long oil, energy, coal, solar, manufacturing, metals, or mining stocks, you can find a TON of stocks that are great longs. I can give you over 100 great longs right now in a market that is giving such "great professionals" as Cramer an 8% loss.
Not only does Cramer have an 8% loss, but the Stocks-Under-$10 service for TSCM is up a walloping NEGATIVE-14% for 2008. -8% and -14% for PREMIUM service is not too bad. YEAH RIGHT! ICO is up 75% in two months and MA is up 500% in two years. So I guess you really actually have to be more than a mouthpiece to make money in a market that is not in the 1980s and 1990s. This is not your Ronald Reagan and 2nd-term tax cutting Clinton economies right now.
I guess we can tell how good the quality is by the stock price. When I look at TSCM and compare it to some of my oil longs the past few months I see that we have a stock that is not doing well at all in this market. In fact that is an extremely ugly chart. As you can see right after I left, the stock fell apart. ;) All kidding aside, a stock under $10 in a nasty downtrend doing worse than the market is not good. I bet $5 is not far off. I now contribute to Seeking Alpha, Straight Stocks, and iStockAnalyst as they are free and open sites and I prefer to have my body of work put out to the public in my own creative way. I did not write any columns about any stocks the past week, but if you take the time to go to Seeking Alpha and read about all of the stocks that I have profiled up until now (should be about 5-7 so far) you can see that the stocks profiled are doing very well. I would keep an eye out for another 5 stocks that have very nice chart patterns that I want to bring to the attention of readers as possible long-term gems.
There are also other sites I read like Minyanville, Marketwatch, Sharkinvesting, HardRightEdge, and Investors Business Daily. The quality on those site I have found are of higher quality than what is on TSCM. So there are other choices out there, for some of you who have asked me recently where else they can go to get great research. The sad fact is since Gary B. Smith stopped writing for TSCM and RevShark stopped giving small and mid-cap stock picks on Realmoney.com, the site has gone down the tube. now reading SA, MV, MW, SI, HRE, IBD, SS, and iSA are much more enjoyable. However, do not dismiss Alan Farley, Dan Fitzpartrik, Helene Meisler, John Hughes and Scott Maragioglio, Mark Manning, Chris Schumacker, Harry Schiller, or Garry Morrow. They are all great technicians that do a great job on giving good TA coverage. However, sharkinvesting and hardrightedge cover it well also. Not only that but not many talk about Michael Ashbaugh who has a marketwatch.com column for only $300 a year. That along with Jeff Cooper at Minyanville.com make for great side-research to this site.
Other greats to read would be Dan Zanger, old TokyoJoe stuff (no longer available), and EVERY SINGLE BOOK I listed on my website. There is more than enough good information out there, besides the now failing TSCM. What a piece of crap that company has become. Maybe later on if they get rid of David Sterman and bring me back (yeah right, they prefer failures who "tow-the-line" NOW) someone like Kristin they can TRY to get back to that old site I once loved. A lot of recent readers have been asking for more SA articles and I promise I will get them up. This is just my good-will attempt at trying to promote other sites that I read daily and/or have respect for. I also think Brad Koteshwar who wrote two great stock market books has a site. I would like to check that out too. However, I am pretty sure none of them had ICO the past two months or MA the past two years. But heck maybe they had POT, CF, TNH, or SQM for the past five. I would LOVE to see that.
Ken Heebner WAS my favorite mutual fund manager and I DEFINITELY LISTEN TO EVERYTHING he says about the MACRO ECONOMY NOW. However, for those that rush out to buy what he recommends, I want you to remember that he is now a KNOWN MUTUAL FUND manager. When NO ONE knew him, but me and a few other hardcore growth addicts, he had under $500 million in assets. Now the guy has billions. He used to close it ALL THE TIME. Now it is always opened. The old Heebner way of buying stocks is not as easy. It still can be done. But like I was telling someone a month ago, when PBR was 75, to wait for it to pullback to the 50 DMA as Heebner is probably now using CNBC to sell. That person listened and has been rewarded as PBR pulled back right to the 50 DMA at 65 and bounced. I recently saw him recommend POT. PLEASE DO NOT CHASE POT. Will it still run. PROBABLY. But no way in the world can you look at an arithmetic weekly going back to 2002 and tell me that this stock is a "safe" growth stock to LOAD UP on. I know when it is too late. There is still probably another big run left. But the 2000% gains are over.
I am going to be away on the other side of the island all day Saturday so will not get a chance to update the rest of the commentary until Sunday but what I have written so far is a start and now you know where to go to read quality research whenever you are done reading what I post on my site. I am not bein cocky, I am not being an ass, I am being SINCERE. I have looked for a site like mine for 12 years. It took ME!!! to create it as I was looking for a mix of a speculative/momentum/CANSLIM site that produced some huge returns in bull markets and a few other times in super-bullish sectors when the market was bad. Not only that I wanted someone that was good at shorting.
GBS worked for a while, then he left. RevSharks picks were too short term and he was missing the HUGE BULK of the moves. Zanger did not "get involved" enough for me...and so now we have this site. And for those that are current subscribers that have followed my recently longs you know how well the "top performers" have been. The stocks that I have alerted to you as "must buys" have done very well. A few have had VERY BUMPY rides but their trends remain up and they are still making money. There are a few I really like right now that have done very well and I would hope they do AT LEAST another 100% well.
I will be back on Sunday to add some more thoughts (but you should know I am only 50% on following-through with that), HOPEFULLY. If not, then enjoy your weekend and have a great time with your family!!! After hearing of Tim Russerts death, I was pretty sad. 58 years old, only 58. Yet, it appears, to his son, he was invincible. I can only hope I am that kind of dad in the future. Republican or Democrat, Conservative or Liberal, it should NEVER matter when someone who was this kind dies. He was a great man and even though socially and economically I lean VERY Conservative, I must admit "Meet the Press" was a FANTASTIC show to watch on Sunday, when it wasn't football season. He will be greatly missed and must admit I feel deep remorse and sadness from his death.
Subscribers to my website will notice there are a LOT of longs. I will go into full detail on these and which ones are buyable and which ones need to be just observed. There are some real gems in there so make sure before the opening bell on Monday you make it back to check those out. Also for those without a subscription (what are you thinking!!!! SERIOUSLY!!! F the price! Do you know what kind of gains you are missing out on??) I will have 4-5 Seeking Alpha post this upcoming week. I would like to have one extra one but my right-hand man is being coy about sending me his PMFG submission. On that note, remember to enjoy your weekend and LOVE YOUR KIDS if you have them. Think of Russert. He was only 58. My dad was only 73. Do you know the kind of conversations I could POSSIBLY be having with him right now, if he was still alive, compared to when I was a crazy 18 year old? Time is all we have. Trust me, it runs out for everyone. We all will die. This life is only for a fleeting moment in time and it is a crazy world we live in. Live it up and love it up! ALOOOOHA!!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment