The SP-500 and the Nasdaq both pulled back today but volume was heavier on the SP-500. While that might seem bearish, and technically it is a distro day again, to the trained eye is actually another bullish intraday session.
Once again, the SP500 pulled back intraday only to reverse off the lows putting in a very respectable bullish close. This happened yesterday and it happened again today and before today and yesterday it has happened almost EVERY single day of the rally since this most recent move higher began on 7/8. Every day you can see a bullish intraday reversal.
While this is very bullish to see in a market, it is only really bullish if you are already fully long. It also matters what you are long. Right now, we still do not have ANY "PERFECT" charts to which I can put anywhere from 10% to 25% in one position. Right now, I continue to deal with speculative stocks that are either coming from short bases or bases far away from the 50 DMA. I don't mind buying bases off the 50 DMA but I sure do want to see nice big long bases.
One of my best stocks so far in this uptrend in terms of "perfection" was RINO. On 7/13 and on 7/16 I bought RINO and the second buy came with max-green BOP the whole way in the previous uptrend, in the base, and on the breakout, along with huge volume and excellent price action--plus it was from China and not the USA; a big positive when investing (isn't that sad to say, Americans). Anyways, the stock only put in an 11-day base before breaking out on 7/16. That is only two weeks and one day, everyone. The best stocks, if you go back and study my best-of-the-best past-big-winners almost all come from bases over three weeks long (most are around four-five) and/or come with price coming right off the 50 DMA. So before we see any HUGE 500% gains in 3 to 6 months kind of returns, we are going to have to see some longer/nicer bases.
Still, overall, am I going to complain about this market, after the 2008 we just had? Absolutely not. What I am doing is telling the truth. For me to "load-up" on stocks to my full margin and OPM accounts I am going to need to see better charts. Now, I hear people say (including me) that the 2008 market was so much worse than the 2002 market (obviously, since it was really only the Nassy that got trashed) market that bases are going to be uglier. That is fine but that just means that I will be risking my "I can invest this without worry" money in them. Until they make another round of bases (and if they don't that is just tough luck on my part), I can not risk OPM or my IRA money into the two-week bases or two-day bases that are making stocks move 40% in 8 days. Sorry, I can't do it.
I can play with my safe, fun money in stocks right now. Especially charts that have corporations in CHINA. If they breakout and are from China I am all over them. One of my recent large longs was CGA. 7/15 I loaded up on it. Then on 7/21 it breaks down on strong volume hitting me with a 6% loss. Three days later it was moving up 17% in one day and now is up 32% in the past four days. That is my luck everyone. However, had it not broken down, I would have done very very well based on one fact alone. It was from China. If a stock breaks out from a great base and has a wonderful chart pattern with strong fundamentals, I might or might not buy a lot of it. One way to guarantee I will: if it says it is from China. Sadly, fakeouts and breakdown re-breakouts are a part of the game and I will have to live with them. Sometimes you get faked out: CGA. Sometimes you hit it just right: RINO. Sometimes you don't have any "perfect" charts and must stay patient: now.
I have a feeling as long as the NYSE, SP500, Nasdaq, and IBD indexes act the way they do as they pullback, we can have quite a few very beautiful chart patterns to pick from and possibly finally find our "perfect" patterns that has helped me invest in some very nice winners that allowed me a very nice life in NYC and Maui from 1999-early 2007. Since then, it has been a fight. I had one subscriber make 100% shorting the same stocks I was shorting in 2008. However, I didn't return 100%. Everyone is different. Don't beat yourself up too much if you are not making money or even losing money in this market. I still am not killing it. Will I eventually? You bet your buns I will. However, I can't predict that will be. I can tell you when it will happen. When the charts start making you drool. There aren't too many that are doing that right now. So for now, I will try to make as much money as I can, while I wait for the perfect moment to setup so that I can "get rich again."
I tell you what it sure isn't cheap living on Maui, in today's economic times. It makes a whole lot of sense to move and that is what I will be doing soon. So if any of you refer to me as MauiTrader or whatever moniker I was given, start getting used to saying TexasTrader because that is where hopefully I will be at this time next year. Any of you Texas residents want to start an investing club or would like me to give seminars, I am 100% committed to being a member of the community. This is my final year on Maui. Sorry Hawaii. You are taxing me out. Aloha! I will make sure when I move that I have internet connectivity available immediately so I will not miss a beat. It is a year away but I think it is appropriate to let everyone know now. I am leaving Maui. This is my final year away from the Mainland. I put in a great 10 years here and maybe I will be back but for now I sure would like to settle, start my fund, and get a serious work environment setup so that I can help even more people become financially independent or more secure.
I'll see you tomorrow. Aloha and let's pray this market continues to stair-step higher. This Nasdaq pattern is beautiful. Now all we need is one base longer than 10 days or so. At least two FULL weeks would be nice right about now. Viva la uptrend! :)
FREE YouTube Video to teach you how to read the market CORRECTLY:
SUBSCRIBERS YOU CAN VIEW THE FULL SIZE ON THE GOLD FORUMS
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Another Very Mellow Intraday Session Ends With Indexes Mixed On Higher Volume; Volume Continues To Be Below Average To Average
I tell you what when the market doesn't move much intraday for a long period of time it sure does get more difficult to decide what you want to talk about. However, I really don't think that there is much you can talk about except for one thing: for a market moving up in such a slow steady fashion, nothing is steady about this market. First case in point you can refer to USU and the second case in point you can refer to UTA.
First off, USU got crushed, for a good reason. However, in a bull market you normally don't see these type of destructive reactions and see them so often. Remember ADY over two weeks ago or how about COT or ITLN yesterday. This action along with USU sure does make it hard to believe I am in a bull market. Do you think I saw this in 1999, 2003, or really anytime from 2004-2007 (early 2007 as around mid-year the fakeout breakouts started showing up)? If you said no, you are right. This was not normal. In fact it is not normal to have rallies with this many DISASTERS and you can be sure that is what these are disasters. Luckily, for once, for me, I have not been hit by any disasters that crush my accounts. Instead I continue to find my way into mediocre picks that don't do much (at least it makes me money) but at least keep me from having a heart attack.
While all of this goes on, I am out there with my eye on some possible beautiful buys. The problem is though, historically, you must wait for a base, setup, and breakout. Well right now we don't get a base or setup. We just get breakouts. Case in point with UTA. UTA is a stock that I have been watching since it made its way to the Nasdaq. Shortly after being listed it started rising on strong volume with green BOP. In June after the initial rally it pulled back on lower volume to beautiful support that then saw it take off 38% in 3 days on strong volume. This got my eyes on it hard. Now I want to buy the breakout. As I watch it base all looks well until 7/20. On 7/20 the stock decides to make the right side of its base all in ONE DAY. While it did not complete the right side, it was still up over 19%, putting it in a position of extreme overbought. What followed was very well received by me as it went sideways for five days. Sadly during those five days it did have two heavier volume reversals that sent BOP back to yellow. However, before the fifth day hit it was back to green BOP. Basically, the base was looking good. Then all of a sudden today the darn stock shoots up over 20% in one day. If you were following the stock intraday, you more than likely were able to buy near the pivot and now have a wonderful little gain in a HOT stock. However, if you are like me and unable to watch intraday you are now sad that your breakout went too far too fast. Welcome to our new stock market of 2009!
Never fear though, everyone, I do have a plan to get myself long before it is too late but it must do one of two things. It must either now reset up in a nice base on base pattern with this next base coming on green BOP and quiet volume the entire way or I would LOVE to see a low volume pullback to near the 12.50-12.75 area. If it can pullback to that area on lower volume, keep its BOP max-green or even just green, and then bounce off that area on strong volume, I wouldn't mind getting long heavy at all. So at least I have a plan to get that stock if it wants me to have it. If it doesn't pullback or if it doesn't setup in another base well then I will just have to say congratulations to everyone. I will get the next one.
I tell you what, though, this sure is one of the FIRST UPTRENDS I have EVER seen without any green to max-green BOP filled bases on lower volume with flat tight price action that led to breakouts on strong volume with max-green BOP, the good news is that some money is still able to be made. Especially on some of the more random stocks like AVNR, ISTA, CHLN, or SCLN. If you are not making some money, you are not cutting your losses fast enough. This market should be able to offer everyone a chance to make at least a little bit of money as long as you are fast at killing what doesn't work and move on to what does. At the same time, if you still are not making money, DO NOT BEAT YOURSELF UP. Like I just said I have not seen an uptrend that has lasted longer than a few months go this long without building any green to max-green BOP filled gems that come with a high-quality stock in regards to EPS/sales. So don't beat yourself up. Trust me, if this was 2003, you would all have a gain of 500%. However, some of you might have gains of 200%. Would you still be pissed off at some one else for having a 700% return. I hope not. Some will be up 100% since March and more will be up 20%. In 1999 some were up 1,000% and some were up 200%. No matter what it is some people will never be happy. So don't waste too much of your time being mad at the "CRAZY!!!!" market. Who would have known a POS-type stock like AVNR would rock a stock like ARST.
Not a lot makes sense which is why cash is still one of my best friends. When the TASR and EPIC charts of 2003 are ready for me, you KNOW I will be there!
FREE YouTube video to teach you how to read the market CORRECTLY:
First off, USU got crushed, for a good reason. However, in a bull market you normally don't see these type of destructive reactions and see them so often. Remember ADY over two weeks ago or how about COT or ITLN yesterday. This action along with USU sure does make it hard to believe I am in a bull market. Do you think I saw this in 1999, 2003, or really anytime from 2004-2007 (early 2007 as around mid-year the fakeout breakouts started showing up)? If you said no, you are right. This was not normal. In fact it is not normal to have rallies with this many DISASTERS and you can be sure that is what these are disasters. Luckily, for once, for me, I have not been hit by any disasters that crush my accounts. Instead I continue to find my way into mediocre picks that don't do much (at least it makes me money) but at least keep me from having a heart attack.
While all of this goes on, I am out there with my eye on some possible beautiful buys. The problem is though, historically, you must wait for a base, setup, and breakout. Well right now we don't get a base or setup. We just get breakouts. Case in point with UTA. UTA is a stock that I have been watching since it made its way to the Nasdaq. Shortly after being listed it started rising on strong volume with green BOP. In June after the initial rally it pulled back on lower volume to beautiful support that then saw it take off 38% in 3 days on strong volume. This got my eyes on it hard. Now I want to buy the breakout. As I watch it base all looks well until 7/20. On 7/20 the stock decides to make the right side of its base all in ONE DAY. While it did not complete the right side, it was still up over 19%, putting it in a position of extreme overbought. What followed was very well received by me as it went sideways for five days. Sadly during those five days it did have two heavier volume reversals that sent BOP back to yellow. However, before the fifth day hit it was back to green BOP. Basically, the base was looking good. Then all of a sudden today the darn stock shoots up over 20% in one day. If you were following the stock intraday, you more than likely were able to buy near the pivot and now have a wonderful little gain in a HOT stock. However, if you are like me and unable to watch intraday you are now sad that your breakout went too far too fast. Welcome to our new stock market of 2009!
Never fear though, everyone, I do have a plan to get myself long before it is too late but it must do one of two things. It must either now reset up in a nice base on base pattern with this next base coming on green BOP and quiet volume the entire way or I would LOVE to see a low volume pullback to near the 12.50-12.75 area. If it can pullback to that area on lower volume, keep its BOP max-green or even just green, and then bounce off that area on strong volume, I wouldn't mind getting long heavy at all. So at least I have a plan to get that stock if it wants me to have it. If it doesn't pullback or if it doesn't setup in another base well then I will just have to say congratulations to everyone. I will get the next one.
I tell you what, though, this sure is one of the FIRST UPTRENDS I have EVER seen without any green to max-green BOP filled bases on lower volume with flat tight price action that led to breakouts on strong volume with max-green BOP, the good news is that some money is still able to be made. Especially on some of the more random stocks like AVNR, ISTA, CHLN, or SCLN. If you are not making some money, you are not cutting your losses fast enough. This market should be able to offer everyone a chance to make at least a little bit of money as long as you are fast at killing what doesn't work and move on to what does. At the same time, if you still are not making money, DO NOT BEAT YOURSELF UP. Like I just said I have not seen an uptrend that has lasted longer than a few months go this long without building any green to max-green BOP filled gems that come with a high-quality stock in regards to EPS/sales. So don't beat yourself up. Trust me, if this was 2003, you would all have a gain of 500%. However, some of you might have gains of 200%. Would you still be pissed off at some one else for having a 700% return. I hope not. Some will be up 100% since March and more will be up 20%. In 1999 some were up 1,000% and some were up 200%. No matter what it is some people will never be happy. So don't waste too much of your time being mad at the "CRAZY!!!!" market. Who would have known a POS-type stock like AVNR would rock a stock like ARST.
Not a lot makes sense which is why cash is still one of my best friends. When the TASR and EPIC charts of 2003 are ready for me, you KNOW I will be there!
FREE YouTube video to teach you how to read the market CORRECTLY:
Monday, July 27, 2009
Constant Below Average Volume Gains Are Leading To Some Winners To Crash Hard (ie...COT); The Leading IBD Indexes Pullback, Hinting At A Tired Market
FREE YouTube Video to teach you how to interpret the market CORRECTLY:
FULL COMMENTARY WILL COME AFTER I COMPLETE MY SCANS FOR THE LIST OF NEW LONGS/SHORTS. I WANTED TO LET GOLD AND PLATINUM SUBSCRIBERS KNOW THAT THE FULL SIZE VIDEO ONE IS AVAILABLE ON THE GOLD FORUMS. IT IS A MUST WATCH SO THAT YOU CAN SEE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MAKING MONEY AND NOT MAKING MONEY RIGHT NOW IS NOTHING BUT LUCK. SKILL AND PROPER ANALYSIS OF THE BEST STOCKS WITH THE BEST PATTERNS WILL NOT GUARANTEE LARGE GAINS RIGHT NOW. BASICALLY A LOT OF LUCK IS THE ONLY WAY YOU ARE GOING TO BE HITTING IT OUT OF THE PARK. THE ONLY OTHER WAY I CAN SEE TO MAKE BIG MONEY RIGHT NOW IS TO FOLLOW THE STOCKS I PUT ON MY WATCHLIST INTRADAY AND BUY THEM ON THE BREAKOUTS WITH STRONG VOLUME. I HAVE STUDIED SOME OF MY SELECTIONS WHERE THEY FLY INTRADAY AND NOTICE THAT SINCE SO MANY OF MY LONGS HAVE A HABIT OF GOING UP 20% BY THE EOD BUT BEFORE THE CLOSING BELL YOU CAN BUY THEM AROUND A SAFE 5-10% MOVE PAST THE PIVOT. SO IF YOU CAN WATCH SOME OF MY BEST PICKS ALL-DAY INTRADAY I RECOMMEND DOING THAT AND GETTING LONG THE STOCKS THAT BREAKOUT ON LARGE VOLUME WITH BEAUTIFUL GREEN TO MAX-GREEN BOP.
FULL COMMENTARY COMING UP. MAKE SURE TO WATCH VIDEO ONE NOW GOLD AND PLATINUM SUBSCRIBERS. THERE IS SOME IMPORTANT STUFF IN THERE.
FULL COMMENTARY WILL COME AFTER I COMPLETE MY SCANS FOR THE LIST OF NEW LONGS/SHORTS. I WANTED TO LET GOLD AND PLATINUM SUBSCRIBERS KNOW THAT THE FULL SIZE VIDEO ONE IS AVAILABLE ON THE GOLD FORUMS. IT IS A MUST WATCH SO THAT YOU CAN SEE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MAKING MONEY AND NOT MAKING MONEY RIGHT NOW IS NOTHING BUT LUCK. SKILL AND PROPER ANALYSIS OF THE BEST STOCKS WITH THE BEST PATTERNS WILL NOT GUARANTEE LARGE GAINS RIGHT NOW. BASICALLY A LOT OF LUCK IS THE ONLY WAY YOU ARE GOING TO BE HITTING IT OUT OF THE PARK. THE ONLY OTHER WAY I CAN SEE TO MAKE BIG MONEY RIGHT NOW IS TO FOLLOW THE STOCKS I PUT ON MY WATCHLIST INTRADAY AND BUY THEM ON THE BREAKOUTS WITH STRONG VOLUME. I HAVE STUDIED SOME OF MY SELECTIONS WHERE THEY FLY INTRADAY AND NOTICE THAT SINCE SO MANY OF MY LONGS HAVE A HABIT OF GOING UP 20% BY THE EOD BUT BEFORE THE CLOSING BELL YOU CAN BUY THEM AROUND A SAFE 5-10% MOVE PAST THE PIVOT. SO IF YOU CAN WATCH SOME OF MY BEST PICKS ALL-DAY INTRADAY I RECOMMEND DOING THAT AND GETTING LONG THE STOCKS THAT BREAKOUT ON LARGE VOLUME WITH BEAUTIFUL GREEN TO MAX-GREEN BOP.
FULL COMMENTARY COMING UP. MAKE SURE TO WATCH VIDEO ONE NOW GOLD AND PLATINUM SUBSCRIBERS. THERE IS SOME IMPORTANT STUFF IN THERE.
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