Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Another Very Mellow Intraday Session Ends With Indexes Mixed On Higher Volume; Volume Continues To Be Below Average To Average

I tell you what when the market doesn't move much intraday for a long period of time it sure does get more difficult to decide what you want to talk about. However, I really don't think that there is much you can talk about except for one thing: for a market moving up in such a slow steady fashion, nothing is steady about this market. First case in point you can refer to USU and the second case in point you can refer to UTA.

First off, USU got crushed, for a good reason. However, in a bull market you normally don't see these type of destructive reactions and see them so often. Remember ADY over two weeks ago or how about COT or ITLN yesterday. This action along with USU sure does make it hard to believe I am in a bull market. Do you think I saw this in 1999, 2003, or really anytime from 2004-2007 (early 2007 as around mid-year the fakeout breakouts started showing up)? If you said no, you are right. This was not normal. In fact it is not normal to have rallies with this many DISASTERS and you can be sure that is what these are disasters. Luckily, for once, for me, I have not been hit by any disasters that crush my accounts. Instead I continue to find my way into mediocre picks that don't do much (at least it makes me money) but at least keep me from having a heart attack.

While all of this goes on, I am out there with my eye on some possible beautiful buys. The problem is though, historically, you must wait for a base, setup, and breakout. Well right now we don't get a base or setup. We just get breakouts. Case in point with UTA. UTA is a stock that I have been watching since it made its way to the Nasdaq. Shortly after being listed it started rising on strong volume with green BOP. In June after the initial rally it pulled back on lower volume to beautiful support that then saw it take off 38% in 3 days on strong volume. This got my eyes on it hard. Now I want to buy the breakout. As I watch it base all looks well until 7/20. On 7/20 the stock decides to make the right side of its base all in ONE DAY. While it did not complete the right side, it was still up over 19%, putting it in a position of extreme overbought. What followed was very well received by me as it went sideways for five days. Sadly during those five days it did have two heavier volume reversals that sent BOP back to yellow. However, before the fifth day hit it was back to green BOP. Basically, the base was looking good. Then all of a sudden today the darn stock shoots up over 20% in one day. If you were following the stock intraday, you more than likely were able to buy near the pivot and now have a wonderful little gain in a HOT stock. However, if you are like me and unable to watch intraday you are now sad that your breakout went too far too fast. Welcome to our new stock market of 2009!

Never fear though, everyone, I do have a plan to get myself long before it is too late but it must do one of two things. It must either now reset up in a nice base on base pattern with this next base coming on green BOP and quiet volume the entire way or I would LOVE to see a low volume pullback to near the 12.50-12.75 area. If it can pullback to that area on lower volume, keep its BOP max-green or even just green, and then bounce off that area on strong volume, I wouldn't mind getting long heavy at all. So at least I have a plan to get that stock if it wants me to have it. If it doesn't pullback or if it doesn't setup in another base well then I will just have to say congratulations to everyone. I will get the next one.

I tell you what, though, this sure is one of the FIRST UPTRENDS I have EVER seen without any green to max-green BOP filled bases on lower volume with flat tight price action that led to breakouts on strong volume with max-green BOP, the good news is that some money is still able to be made. Especially on some of the more random stocks like AVNR, ISTA, CHLN, or SCLN. If you are not making some money, you are not cutting your losses fast enough. This market should be able to offer everyone a chance to make at least a little bit of money as long as you are fast at killing what doesn't work and move on to what does. At the same time, if you still are not making money, DO NOT BEAT YOURSELF UP. Like I just said I have not seen an uptrend that has lasted longer than a few months go this long without building any green to max-green BOP filled gems that come with a high-quality stock in regards to EPS/sales. So don't beat yourself up. Trust me, if this was 2003, you would all have a gain of 500%. However, some of you might have gains of 200%. Would you still be pissed off at some one else for having a 700% return. I hope not. Some will be up 100% since March and more will be up 20%. In 1999 some were up 1,000% and some were up 200%. No matter what it is some people will never be happy. So don't waste too much of your time being mad at the "CRAZY!!!!" market. Who would have known a POS-type stock like AVNR would rock a stock like ARST.

Not a lot makes sense which is why cash is still one of my best friends. When the TASR and EPIC charts of 2003 are ready for me, you KNOW I will be there!

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