Saturday, March 03, 2012

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

The Big Wave Trading market model switched from a BUY signal to a NEUTRAL signal following Wednesday’s stock market session. The switch from the BUY signal which was triggered on 1/5 to a NEUTRAL signal on 2/29 was caused by a few key factors this past week. 1. New longs have not moved higher immediately leaving most with full cut losses. 2. Current holdings are giving off partial profit taking to full profit taking signals. 3. One key technical indicator called Time Segment Volume continues to show huge negative divergences on the Russell 2000, Nasdaq, and SP 600. 4. The Russell 2000 led the rally from the October reversal higher and therefore should, as history suggest, lead the market lower. This being said, we are well aware that a lot of our current holdings continue to have very strong technical price and volume patterns (Big Wave Trading portfolios remain anywhere from 55%-75% currently invested). On top of this, there are plenty of stocks out there building bases that also sport fantastic fundamentals. Fusion-io (FIO) and Questcor (QCOR) are two great examples. Even further more, we have the beloved Facebook (FB) IPO coming up sometime in the very near future. If the market reverses higher here on higher above average volume with the indexes putting in a convincing 1%+ move, you can be sure our market model will return to a full BUY signal. If selling continues to pick up and leading stocks like Priceline (PCLN), Apple (AAPL), and Mastercard (MA) breakdown, the market model will switch to a SELL signal. For now, we remain in NEUTRAL, and that means that we invest less capital in new longs, we go short great short setups (not good setups), and we are even quicker to take our losses than we are in a trending market. Cutting losses extremely quick, when wrong, remains disciplined rule #1 at Big Wave Trading.

Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain (non-margin) – Date of Signal

KORS – 70% – 1/17/12
IRE – 49% – 1/17/12
RENN – 47% – 1/11/12
YINN – 43% – 1/5/12
LHCG – 32% – 1/19/12
FAS – 31% – 1/5/12
UMDD – 31% – 1/5/12
RF – 31% – 1/5/12

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