Wednesday, May 30, 2012
King Dollar Stands Tall as Stocks Fall in Heavier Trade
It is beginning to appear the European Union is on the verge of breaking up. The dollar continued its upward movement as the EURO continues to fall. Volume rose on the day, but wasn’t overly impressive given the losses on the day. Gold reversed on the day after opening the day in the red despite the rise in the dollar. Crude oil continued its downward track closing with an 87 handle. Commodities as a whole continue to fall as the Euro continues to struggle against the dollar. We are in a downtrend and likely when all is said and down a bear market. Unless this market can get a miracle there isn’t a question due to multiple factors we are headed towards a bear market. Anything is possible and we’ll adjust, but given what we have seen from this market there isn’t a reason to be optimistic for stocks in the near term. Spain is a focal point for the Euro right now, but Italy is knocking on the door as contagion continues. Greece was just the beginning and now with other struggling southern European Union countries on the brink the near future doesn’t appear to be bright. Price has confirmed we are in a downtrend and it is anyone’s guess how low we can go. An even bigger challenge for the markets will be if a State like California gets into similar trouble like Greece. California CDS has been widening and the state is $16 billion in the hole. States can’t print money to pay for their debt and must balance their budget. In addition, the United States faces the Fiscal Cliff and not to mention another debt ceiling fight on its hand. We have created a mess because we are unable to simply live within our means and outsource accountability. Keep in mind while things may be dire there will always be opportunity. We are ready, are you? Defense is the best offense at this point and while we understand the rallies will occur it will be some time before we get a healthy uptrend.