Thursday, June 07, 2012

Bernanke Fails to Mention QE3; Fitch Warns of US Downgrade Sends Stocks Lower

The NASDAQ reversed its gains in a big way after the Fed Chairman does not mention further quantitative easing. To add insult to injury Fitch warned of a possible US downgrade if a viable debt plan was not forged. Preliminary volume figures does show volume was lower on the day, but the day’s action hints at how shaky this market is at this point in the game. Economic news was a non-factor and the market action centered on the Fed and Fitch. This market remains on unstable ground and we continue to lack the necessary conviction to get any sustainable rally. Ben Bernanke’s testimony was quite clear he wanted to shift the burden away from the Federal Reserve and onto policy makers. Fiscal policy has been non-existent since the Obama administration has taken office. We had a policy from the Bush administration, but it was terrible as it simply added to our debt by running unsustainable deficits. At this point, the Federal Reserve Chairman seems to be in a holding pattern until the folks on the hill get together and form a fiscal policy. We can dream of running surpluses and lowering our national debt, but it appears this is just a pipe dream. Cash seems the place to be as the market certainly has signaled a lack of direction. Sellers have appeared to dry up here at the lows, but buyers aren’t coming out in droves to scoop up shares. LULU a former leading stock was hit hard today while CMG and AAPL appear to be on the verge of heading lower. Not the type of action you would normally see in an emerging rally. While we can still move higher from here the likely hood it is sustainable is not very high. Price will always dictate our actions and we will act accordingly. However, the the information from the market in front of us our confidence is very low this rally is going to push much higher. Remember, the last Federal Reserve Bank stress test one assumption was the S&P 500 was down 50%. To think after a small correction from March highs the Federal Reserve would step in is quite overzealous. If the market needs money printing that badly we are all in deep trouble. Cut those losses.

No comments: