Thursday, October 25, 2012

Stocks Close off the Highs but in the Green as AAPL and AMZN report Earnings

Another day and another rally attempt failing to hold the morning gains as stocks close just off the lows of the session. Oversold conditions can produce multi-day rallies, but today ahead of AAPL and AMZN the market was unable to hang onto gains. Jobless claims and new home sales weren’t overly inspiring, but weren’t awful either. During the session as stocks sold off a rumor surfaced Fitch was about to downgrade the United States, but was untrue. How this country will pay off this debt without making a sacrifice is beyond me. How any agency would have our debt rated AAA is baffling. At the end of the day the market as able to close in positive territory, but tomorrow’s GDP report looms over the market. During the after-hours session the two big stocks the market was looking at was AAPL and AMZN. Both stocks have taken a beating prior to their earnings report. First up was AMZN and at one point was down below 208 a share. It closed the after-hours session above 220. The move off the lows of the after-hours was quite interesting considering AMZN continues to disappoint. AAPL reported earnings and the reaction to the news was less dramatic than AMZN. Whether or not we feel the earnings was bad or good tomorrow’s reaction will be the most important piece for us. Tomorrow’s GDP report will be the highlight of CNBC’s morning. There will be no doubt an endless discussion on what it means for the market and of course the economy. Remember, one week from tomorrow we’ll get the October jobs report. Third quarter GDP is expected to be around 1.8% any number not reaching that potential will be a big disappointment. One can conclude a bad number would be bad for the market, but we know this may not be the case with the Federal Reserve printing money. How the market reacts tomorrow will be very important. As of late, earnings have not been too kind to many stocks and we continue to see a lot of Revenue misses. Earnings are easily “gamed” whereas revenues are not. There were many who were expecting big moves out of AAPL and AMZN. EXPE and PCLN made the big moves higher! Earnings continue to produce wild moves! Stay disciplined and have a great weekend.

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