By Market Speculator
Today was owned by the banking sector as the "Bank Stress Tests" were released today. By in large this stress was viewed vastly different from all sides of the aisle. Regardless of anyone's opinion, the market's opinion was positive as banks roared higher pushing the NYSE composite Index and S&P500 higher. Lagging behind was the NASDAQ composite index and the IBD indexes. It shouldn't be a major surprise seeing the banks leading for one day as the stress tests showed most banks can withstand further downside, but we'll need to see leadership from the IBD indexes. Once again, we did see major support for the NASDAQ and other indexes showing there is a bullish tint to this market.
It would be fabulous if we could simply settle and consolidate at these current levels. This market has made a long run from its lows and its time we head sideways for a week or two. However, this Friday we'll see the latest employment figures from the government and it is sure to set the market in one direction or another. At this point, if we could simply get quiet action with the NASDAQ holding its 200dma it would be quite constructive. It would allow the IBD 100 and IBD 85/85 indexes to retake the lead in this market.
The fever over the banks is quite a picture to look at. Taken into context the ENTIRE FINANCIAL sector was essentially blown up since November of 2007. They have been due for a rebound from the constant downtrend. At this rate, we'll see bank stocks running towards their 200dma.
What is has been largely overshadowed by the banking sector are the Chinese related stocks. We are seeing some very nice action coming from stocks who are in China. Remember, China had VAST RESERVES (aka Savings) to prop up there economy. Savings is what drives innovation and production not DEBT. Therefore, the action we are seeing from China is driven by a sound economic position. This surge we are seeing from their investment from savings is sustainable unlike the United States which is using DEBT to spur investment. Unfortunately for Americans, we'll fall further behind the Chinese as they benefit from their savings.
The market will be looking towards Friday Employment figures and should provide us with a little breathier tomorrow. However, anything is possible and we are ready for anything to happen.
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Showing posts with label Gold Silver Nasdaq NYSE SP600 SP500 Platinum SP400 USDollar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gold Silver Nasdaq NYSE SP600 SP500 Platinum SP400 USDollar. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Tuesday, May 05, 2009
Stocks Find Support off Lows; NASDAQ Holds Its 200 Day Moving Average
by Market Speculator
Stocks were hit hard from the onset, even leaders found themselves being sold. Ben Bernanke was testifying on the hill while traders were dumping stocks. Selling accelerated as the day wore on but were able to find footing prior to lunch time. Stocks then were hit hard after 2pm hitting new lows but support was able to come in. Stocks once again were able to avoid a nasty distribution day if the NASDAQ had gone out on its lows. This market is once again proving there is an underlying bid to the market.
Two key levels were held today and an important moving average. The NASDAQ was able to hold 1750 which happens to be its 200 day moving average while the S&P500 was able to hold a psychological level of 900. Holding the 200dma is very important level for the NASDAQ as it appears we might be able to produce consolidation above this moving average. It would be a very bullish sign for the NASDAQ to consolidate at this level. Same is to be said about the S&P500 and the 900 level as consolidation above 900 would label it a support level. It is a wait and see game but so far we are seeing bullish action.
Some leading stocks were hit hard in the morning hours, but patience was rewarded as many found support. Leading stocks will always get support in a relatively strong uptrend. Remember, we are coming off lows that were well over 50% of the highs. That kind of damage will ruin many stocks. Another bullish sign is our leading stocks finding support.
One ratio to highlight here is the number of new highs 71 that were hit today while only 12 new lows were observed. New highs are continuing its winning streak by dominating new lows. This ratio must be taken into consideration, remember we have rebounded from an incredible downturn and the expectation to see a massive amount of new highs is unrealistic. Pay attention to the actual ratio and it is showing a bullish tint to this market.
top longs/(shorts) w/ TOTAL return since my FIRST purchase making money TODAY: ANCI 83% ASCA 46% INOD 38% LFT 35% SIGA 27% ARST 22% PALM 22% RGR 25% AIPC 26% (CYT 55% TITN 48% OKE 37% POT 40% MANT 32% PG 21%)
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Stocks were hit hard from the onset, even leaders found themselves being sold. Ben Bernanke was testifying on the hill while traders were dumping stocks. Selling accelerated as the day wore on but were able to find footing prior to lunch time. Stocks then were hit hard after 2pm hitting new lows but support was able to come in. Stocks once again were able to avoid a nasty distribution day if the NASDAQ had gone out on its lows. This market is once again proving there is an underlying bid to the market.
Two key levels were held today and an important moving average. The NASDAQ was able to hold 1750 which happens to be its 200 day moving average while the S&P500 was able to hold a psychological level of 900. Holding the 200dma is very important level for the NASDAQ as it appears we might be able to produce consolidation above this moving average. It would be a very bullish sign for the NASDAQ to consolidate at this level. Same is to be said about the S&P500 and the 900 level as consolidation above 900 would label it a support level. It is a wait and see game but so far we are seeing bullish action.
Some leading stocks were hit hard in the morning hours, but patience was rewarded as many found support. Leading stocks will always get support in a relatively strong uptrend. Remember, we are coming off lows that were well over 50% of the highs. That kind of damage will ruin many stocks. Another bullish sign is our leading stocks finding support.
One ratio to highlight here is the number of new highs 71 that were hit today while only 12 new lows were observed. New highs are continuing its winning streak by dominating new lows. This ratio must be taken into consideration, remember we have rebounded from an incredible downturn and the expectation to see a massive amount of new highs is unrealistic. Pay attention to the actual ratio and it is showing a bullish tint to this market.
top longs/(shorts) w/ TOTAL return since my FIRST purchase making money TODAY: ANCI 83% ASCA 46% INOD 38% LFT 35% SIGA 27% ARST 22% PALM 22% RGR 25% AIPC 26% (CYT 55% TITN 48% OKE 37% POT 40% MANT 32% PG 21%)
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Monday, May 04, 2009
Stocks Soar on Higher Volume Led by NYSE Composite and Mid-Cap Stocks
By Market Speculator
From the open bell to the close stocks were being accumulated. Institutional players stepped up to the plate with cash from the sidelines. Leading the way was the NYSE Composite index up 4.16% followed by the S&P 400 (Mid-Cap) up 4.15%. Small caps weren't far behind. Volume was up double digits (percentage terms) acorss the board marking a heavy accumulation day.
While Small and Mid-Cap stocks were the highlight of the day it is important to note the NASDAQ composite index was able to retake its 200dma on higher volume. A very important and highly positive move for the index. Although the NASDAQ has been the leading index it lagged today as other indexes are now playing catch up. Since the follow-through day the NASDAQ has been the index who has seen the accumulation. It will be important for the NASDAQ continue its lead.
Leading stocks are continuing to shine through, but the majority of that light is coming from China. China has been leading the world's stock markets higher and have been under a tremendous amount of accumulation. We are certainly seeing this translate into the Chinese ADRs who are traded on our markets. These stocks are, if not already must own stocks by mutual funds. China is the only country in the world with MASSIVE reserves and they have the ability to take those savings and pump them back into their economy. Unlike the United States that has to borrow, China will simply use its savings and drive new investment. Continue to pay attention to these leaders as they will help push this market higher.
The important note here is to pay attention to leading stocks and how they are responding to the market. At the moment, they are leading and building bases. It will be important to continue and watch their action and take advantage of the situation. This market is acting awfully bullish, keep your eye on the ball and keep losses small.
top longs/(shorts) w/ TOTAL returns since 1ST purchase making me money TODAY: ASCA 37% KONG 30% SOLR 41% FIRE 26% RGR 21% INOD 29% (MANT 32% DV 25%)
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From the open bell to the close stocks were being accumulated. Institutional players stepped up to the plate with cash from the sidelines. Leading the way was the NYSE Composite index up 4.16% followed by the S&P 400 (Mid-Cap) up 4.15%. Small caps weren't far behind. Volume was up double digits (percentage terms) acorss the board marking a heavy accumulation day.
While Small and Mid-Cap stocks were the highlight of the day it is important to note the NASDAQ composite index was able to retake its 200dma on higher volume. A very important and highly positive move for the index. Although the NASDAQ has been the leading index it lagged today as other indexes are now playing catch up. Since the follow-through day the NASDAQ has been the index who has seen the accumulation. It will be important for the NASDAQ continue its lead.
Leading stocks are continuing to shine through, but the majority of that light is coming from China. China has been leading the world's stock markets higher and have been under a tremendous amount of accumulation. We are certainly seeing this translate into the Chinese ADRs who are traded on our markets. These stocks are, if not already must own stocks by mutual funds. China is the only country in the world with MASSIVE reserves and they have the ability to take those savings and pump them back into their economy. Unlike the United States that has to borrow, China will simply use its savings and drive new investment. Continue to pay attention to these leaders as they will help push this market higher.
The important note here is to pay attention to leading stocks and how they are responding to the market. At the moment, they are leading and building bases. It will be important to continue and watch their action and take advantage of the situation. This market is acting awfully bullish, keep your eye on the ball and keep losses small.
top longs/(shorts) w/ TOTAL returns since 1ST purchase making me money TODAY: ASCA 37% KONG 30% SOLR 41% FIRE 26% RGR 21% INOD 29% (MANT 32% DV 25%)
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Sunday, May 03, 2009
The Nasdaq And SP-600 Make It Eight In-A-Row With Weekly Gains As More And More CANSLIM Quality Longs Begin Setting Up In Proper Bases; The Crowd Sure
So the Nasdaq snagged that eighth-straight week of gains after all. A flurry of buying at the end of the session saved the day. That the IBD 100 led the way with a 2.8% gain for the week is what impresses me though. According to my records, there were 62 winners to 38 losers. GMCR, of course, went on the warpath to the tune of a 35% plus gain, leaving in its wake the carcass of many an unwise short-seller. Even before blowing away earnings, GMCR had printed a new all-time high and formed a very bullish three-weeks tight pattern. I remember quite clearly Bill O’Neil being asked at a workshop last December what most caught his attention when he looked at a stock’s chart: “Tight closes,” he said. “When you see tight price action you’re seeing institutions at work.” Guess those GMCR short-sellers didn’t make it to that workshop. Maybe next time.
Something else that impressed me was that the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported their members had only 41% of their portfolios in stocks. Apparently, this is the lowest amount devoted to equities in AAII history. 40-50% sell-offs have a way of doing that. While equity allocation was at its all-time low, cash levels were at an all-time high: 45%. This has never happened before. It all makes sense if you recall that just a few days before the Follow-Through Day the AAII came out with a report showing 70% of respondents expected the market to continue to tank. This was the highest level of bearishness the AAII had ever seen.
This continued agnosticism, however, is intriguing. Looking at the monthly charts of, say, TNDM, LFT and ARST, I can’t help but wonder what they are waiting for.
As I write this, the Asian markets have jumped quite a bit. We shall see if this carries over to our markets. If so, we might be chalking up week number nine in a row for the Nasdaq when it’s all said and done.
--John "Author Ego" Ward, BWT analyst
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top longs/(shorts) w/ TOTAL returns since FIRST purchase making me money TODAY: FIRE 25% KONG 20% SOLR 28% LFT 25% INOD 22% ANCI 86% (CYT 62% MANT 30% DV 22% CHTT 17% MCY 17%)
Something else that impressed me was that the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported their members had only 41% of their portfolios in stocks. Apparently, this is the lowest amount devoted to equities in AAII history. 40-50% sell-offs have a way of doing that. While equity allocation was at its all-time low, cash levels were at an all-time high: 45%. This has never happened before. It all makes sense if you recall that just a few days before the Follow-Through Day the AAII came out with a report showing 70% of respondents expected the market to continue to tank. This was the highest level of bearishness the AAII had ever seen.
This continued agnosticism, however, is intriguing. Looking at the monthly charts of, say, TNDM, LFT and ARST, I can’t help but wonder what they are waiting for.
As I write this, the Asian markets have jumped quite a bit. We shall see if this carries over to our markets. If so, we might be chalking up week number nine in a row for the Nasdaq when it’s all said and done.
--John "Author Ego" Ward, BWT analyst
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top longs/(shorts) w/ TOTAL returns since FIRST purchase making me money TODAY: FIRE 25% KONG 20% SOLR 28% LFT 25% INOD 22% ANCI 86% (CYT 62% MANT 30% DV 22% CHTT 17% MCY 17%)
Friday, May 01, 2009
A Weak Day For The Market Indexes Has A Silver Lining As Leading Indexes Outperformed The Market With The IBD 85-85 Closing Up 1.5%+ And The IBD 100 F
Commentary by John Ward
Well, Investor’s Business Daily published an interesting fact in the “Big Picture” column tonight:
“In the past 22 years, the Nasdaq has made eight-week win streaks only six times. Only three of those times did the streak extend past the eighth week.” So if the Nassy can eke out a gain today, my friends, that will make it eight straight weeks of gains. From there it’s 50-50. It could go either way.
Still, if you think that today marks the end of the rally just because the Nasdaq got rejected at the 200 day moving average, I would like to call your attention to the Shanghai Composite, to my mind the world’s leading index. Back on February 17 it too was rejected at the 200 day. It fell back to its 50 (roughly a 10% pull back), only to find support. Look at the chart today. It has since broken above the 200 day and run up about 20%.
Now, given that the Nasdaq’s 50 day has turned higher over the past month (just as the Shanghai’s had in February) it is not unreasonable to think that should the Nasdaq correct it will most likely be about a 10% pullback. Whether it would be supported at the 50 day remains to be seen. Yet it could very well be that we’re just a few of months behind the Shanghai Index. Frankly, I would love to see us pullback to the 50 day. That wouldn’t be bearish. Far from it. I’ll explain why:
In the April 16 Market Commentary, I pointed out that I was watching CANSLIM-quality stocks such as VNUS, VPRT, RMG CYBS, LL, BKE, POWL to see how the market treated these kinds of equities, as it would go a long way in determining the health of the overall market. Well, I don’t know if you’ve taken a look at these stocks lately, but they’ve more than held in there. Couple this with the likes of TNDM, GMCR, NTES, STAR, etc., and I just can’t see being afraid of a pullback here. It would actually be very healthy.
Think about it: if the market pulls back and these sorts of stocks can form handles or three week tight patterns or flat bases, this will cause RS Lines to hit new highs well ahead of price. Then if the market indeed follows the lead of the Shanghai Composite and rallies again, you will get some absolutely beautiful-looking breakouts. Tell me how bullish would that be? More than that, I have no doubt that a 10% pullback would turn many traders bearish, cause the VIX to spike and the Put-Call to rise. Nothing would make me happier.
Could it all fall apart, though? Could these CANSLIM-type stocks all get blown out of the water? Well, yes, but is that what your charts are telling you? So whether you want to call this a “bear market rally’ or just a rally, there is just no denying that it has been nothing if not strong. The rest is just semantics. Jesse Livermore eschewed the terms “bull” and “bear” because they foist upon one a bias that causes the mind to be less flexible. That’s why he used the term “line of least resistance” instead. I’m guessing a lot of people are dismissing this rally simply because they’ve missed it. Missing and then dismissing the gains is what they do best. You’d think it was beneath them to go long a “bear market rally.”
All I know is that my account doesn’t know or care to know the difference.
STOCK MARKET WRAP VIDEO FOR FRIDAY:
Well, Investor’s Business Daily published an interesting fact in the “Big Picture” column tonight:
“In the past 22 years, the Nasdaq has made eight-week win streaks only six times. Only three of those times did the streak extend past the eighth week.” So if the Nassy can eke out a gain today, my friends, that will make it eight straight weeks of gains. From there it’s 50-50. It could go either way.
Still, if you think that today marks the end of the rally just because the Nasdaq got rejected at the 200 day moving average, I would like to call your attention to the Shanghai Composite, to my mind the world’s leading index. Back on February 17 it too was rejected at the 200 day. It fell back to its 50 (roughly a 10% pull back), only to find support. Look at the chart today. It has since broken above the 200 day and run up about 20%.
Now, given that the Nasdaq’s 50 day has turned higher over the past month (just as the Shanghai’s had in February) it is not unreasonable to think that should the Nasdaq correct it will most likely be about a 10% pullback. Whether it would be supported at the 50 day remains to be seen. Yet it could very well be that we’re just a few of months behind the Shanghai Index. Frankly, I would love to see us pullback to the 50 day. That wouldn’t be bearish. Far from it. I’ll explain why:
In the April 16 Market Commentary, I pointed out that I was watching CANSLIM-quality stocks such as VNUS, VPRT, RMG CYBS, LL, BKE, POWL to see how the market treated these kinds of equities, as it would go a long way in determining the health of the overall market. Well, I don’t know if you’ve taken a look at these stocks lately, but they’ve more than held in there. Couple this with the likes of TNDM, GMCR, NTES, STAR, etc., and I just can’t see being afraid of a pullback here. It would actually be very healthy.
Think about it: if the market pulls back and these sorts of stocks can form handles or three week tight patterns or flat bases, this will cause RS Lines to hit new highs well ahead of price. Then if the market indeed follows the lead of the Shanghai Composite and rallies again, you will get some absolutely beautiful-looking breakouts. Tell me how bullish would that be? More than that, I have no doubt that a 10% pullback would turn many traders bearish, cause the VIX to spike and the Put-Call to rise. Nothing would make me happier.
Could it all fall apart, though? Could these CANSLIM-type stocks all get blown out of the water? Well, yes, but is that what your charts are telling you? So whether you want to call this a “bear market rally’ or just a rally, there is just no denying that it has been nothing if not strong. The rest is just semantics. Jesse Livermore eschewed the terms “bull” and “bear” because they foist upon one a bias that causes the mind to be less flexible. That’s why he used the term “line of least resistance” instead. I’m guessing a lot of people are dismissing this rally simply because they’ve missed it. Missing and then dismissing the gains is what they do best. You’d think it was beneath them to go long a “bear market rally.”
All I know is that my account doesn’t know or care to know the difference.
STOCK MARKET WRAP VIDEO FOR FRIDAY:
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Score It Six Weeks In-A-Row For Stock Indexes But I Still Want To Know When Leaders (IBD 100/IBD 85-85 Stocks) Are Going To Lead Us Higher
While I LOVE seeing the SP600, Philly SOX, MID400, Nasdaq, and especially the Shanghai SE Composite lead the way higher, there are two key leading indexes that have missed out, so far, but yet still might, on the rally. That is the IBD100 and IBD85-85 indexes.
These are indexes that are composed of stocks with the best ratings for key fundamentals and technicals. If you look at the rally from late 2002-early March 2003 they didn't do great at first but were still doing better than they are now and that is a concern. However from March 2003-early 2007 the beautiful green/max-green BOP filled stocks, with some being CANSLIM, and the CANSLIM only stocks ROCKED the market producing gains that were well beyond the returns of the overall market and the "regular" favorites of those that do not know how to find NEW EXCITING stocks (you know the MSFT, DELL, CSCO, INTC holders).
So as you can see, if this rally is going to be real, we are going to pullback, hold the lows of March, and then take off higher. If/when that happens, almost every single CANSLIM quality stock that I am watching to get long will then have their 50 day moving averages over the 200 day moving averages. This now sets them up in positions to make a lot of money once they breakout or bounce off a key support. Why? The 50 over the 200 signals that the worst is over and that now you have a stock trending higher without the weight of either itself or the market to bring it down.
Now, I want you to remember, this only qualifies for CANSLIM stocks, when it comes to speculative stocks, I am not looking to go heavily long ANY unless they are LOADED TO THE NINE with max-green BOP, huge accumulation, and great price action (something similar to THLD before Friday's selloff). When these charts show up and breakout, with CANSLIM stocks moving higher, then you know it is safe to go heavy into the speculative names. But until more CANSLIM stocks are like NFLX it might be a while before we can expect to have something like MAMA (now CNIC) move up 230% in 10 days.
By the way, MAMA's 230% gain was only FOUR YEARS AFTER THE MARKET BOTTOM, ONCE AGAIN PROVING THAT YOU NEVER NEED TO NAIL THE BOTTOM FOR BIG RESULTS. EGHT up 300% in one month came a FULL YEAR AFTER the 2002 bottom. IST came ALMOST TWO YEARS after the bottom (350% move). ERS and GIGM with their 550% and 250% gains came in 2005 only three years AFTER the bottom. So get this "I missed the rally BULL SH*T" out of your head!!!!! I have heard it from some and I guess they are BRAND NEW to the market or else 97, 98, 99, 03 would have all proven that you don't need to buy THE bottom to KILL it in the market.
If you have to ask me how do I feel about this market right now, I have to honestly say, OF COURSE, that ANYTHING could happen. However, the chart patterns are setting up like the market wants to conintue to rally. At the same time, I see stocks that looked like they were ready DIE. The good news is that NONE of these stocks are CANSLIM stocks but seeing HOT HOT HOT chart patterns start up in CKSW, MIPS, INFI, and some others only to see them lose the "near-perfection" of their charts is always a bummer.
However, focusing on these cheap stocks like PALM gets you in a lot of trouble. The smarter play is to stick with high quality longs that are of some type of CANSLIM worthy. When I look at the EPS and sales growth in actually quite a few of these CANSLIM stocks I am sort of surprised to see continuous growth in EPS and sales, despite the recession we are in. The sad news is that a lot of the top top top best-of-the-best charts are all in China. None of them are at buy points and buying giving out the list of Chinese stocks I am watching, current subscribers can feel safe in knowing that those reading this will have no clue when we go long a HOT Chinese stock that does what it is supposed to do. Chinese stocks like SINA and SOHU are not what we are watching. Instead I would like everyone to know that I am not fully biased to Chinese stocks. They still have to have the chart, fundies, and market to go with it.
The way the SSEC-X (Shanghai Se Composite) has moved off its lows in November and March it is quite apparant that those indexes are outperforming our top index during that time which was the Nasdaq. From November to now, the Nasdaq has moved 27% while the Shanghai Se has moved an outstanding 47%.
This continues the trend of Chinese stocks being more powerful than US stocks. From 1995-2000 (five years) the Nasdaq was able to rally a very impressive 538%. This length of time and the uptrend allowed breakout/momentum players to constantly move from one stock that was making a climax top to another stock just breaking out. You could then repeat this for the five years and at the end you were extremely wealthy with people like Dan Zanger turning thousands into multi-millions. Sadly, for me, I did not "get it" fully (I started April 1996) until late 1998. Now that blessed me in that I got the 1999 madness. However, as the story of IOM, AMER, and all those semiconductor/internet/software stocks goes down in history, I sadly was not part of most of it. I only got 1999. So the 538% move was impressive but I only got in on the end as I was too young to care about stocks in 1994 (13/14 yrs. old).
Now let's compare the 5 year 538% move to China's best move of 483%. As you can see the USA did 50% better than China during its biggest uptrend (95-00) versus China's biggest uptrend. But how long did it take China to make that 483% gain? Uh...ONLY TWO YEARS AND TWO MONTHS from 2005-2007. So if China would have kept moving up at the same rate it was and lasted as long as the US rally China would have had a gain of 966%. So the USA's five year move of 538% would have been matched during the same length of time by China's 966% move. So you tell me which country is more free and is has the better possibility of growth. I think it is clear China is where it is at and as long as it continues to be where it is at, i will be very happy for a potential further rally.
The most important indexes for me, my entire life have been the Nasdaq, SP600, and SP400. I have always made sure they were leading or moving higher ahead of the market to be bullish. But starting in 2001 the IBD 85-85 index was introduced to follow those stocks in IBD with the market. This is now (along with the IBD 100 introduced in 2003) the most important index to follow. Why? Because the stocks that go on to make the biggest price gains are normally leaders. So now we have an index to strictly track the stocks that historically have well outpaced the market.
These indexes is what made me 100% confident in the 2002 lows and ESPEICALLY the March 2003 Follow-through Day, that things were going to be great. Just like now, back then, more and more charts started to show up with pretty patterns of heavy accumulation and green BOP all over them. The only difference mainly is that back then a LOT more max green BOP charts were existing and basing out in perfect round to flat bases. This time the bases are not only shorter but the max green BOP filled charts aren't out there. It is mainly just green BOP filled charts in the speculative stocks. And as I have said OVER-AND-OVER speculative gems should have both quiet bases and heavy volume rallies with max green BOP the whole way. Study all my past big winners from 2003, IST from 2004, GIGM in 2005, HRZ 2006, and AFSI 2007. Now AFSI, HRZ, and IST were not speculative but the perfection in the charts is what I want you to memorize for a speculative stock.
Right now, we have a lot of nice green BOP and some max-green BOP filled spec. stocks. But until more CANSLIM stocks breakout of ANY kind of postive-yellow, green, or max-green BOP pattern with a tight base on low volume and a breakout on heavy volume, I would avoid going long speculative gems in large amounts.
When BIDU, JRJC, CYOU, CSKI, NTES, SNDA, CMED, LFT, MR, CEO, HRBN, CTRP, YZC, CHL, ASIA, JST, STP, SPIL, COGO, HMIN, CTEL, PWRD, SOHU, WBMD, and SINA finish setting up the bases that they are ALL attempting to build (CTEL is the prettiest BUT THE CHEAPEST), I am sure this market will take off and reap us some great rewards. Chinese CANSLIM quality stocks along with some of America's finest like NFLX, CYBS, BKE, NVEC, SYNA, TNDM, INT, JCOM, and GMCR moving higher will then provide the support and juice we need to take the gains from these great stocks and stick them into stocks like MAMA in 2006 that move up 230% in 10 days or BFUN in 2005 that moved up 300% in 10 day. Speculative stocks will work but ONLY AFTER/WHEN the CANSLIM quality longs are working.
So for now, keep your eye on the LEADING Nasdaq, SP600, SP400 indexes for that moment when the IBD 100 and 1BD 85-85 index start moving ahead of them thus opening up our moment to CRUSH the returns being made by anyone else I know out there BESIDES THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN VERY LUCKY OR THOSE THAT ARE ACTUALLY DARN GOOD AT DAYTRADING. And for those of you daytrading penny stocks to the wonderland, great of you! To each their own and I can only hope that your penny daytrading will give you a 2,300% return in nine months, one day, like buying TASR did for us. You had to work your BUTT OFF but we just went into a coma in nine months and woke up and made our sell.
Right now, things are setting up beautifully but those being rewarded are still those that have basically had their ARSES HANDED TO THEM in 2008. If you are up 10%+ this year, congratulations! Too bad you were down 45% last year on top of your 10% gain this year for a net return of -35%. Good job guys (rolling eyes).
top longs/(shorts) w/ total returns making money today: AIPC 27% ANCI 63% KONG 20% (MCY 18% GGB 53% POT 46% MOS 50% K 19% GTIV 40% CYT 70%)
VIDEO ONE: GENERAL MARKET (10:00), VIDEO TWO: LONGS/SHORTS/SELLS/COVERS (15:00), VIDEO THREE: POTENTIAL FUTURE CANSLIM LONGS AND BEAUTIFUL SPECULATIVE STOCK SETUPS (15:00), AND VIDEO FOUR: CONTINUATION FROM VIDEO THREE (25:00) ARE AVIALABLE FOR VIEWING BY GOLD AND PLATINUM SUBSCRIBERS. LEARN, EARN, AND HAVE A GREAT TIME THIS WEEKEND! ALOHA!
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These are indexes that are composed of stocks with the best ratings for key fundamentals and technicals. If you look at the rally from late 2002-early March 2003 they didn't do great at first but were still doing better than they are now and that is a concern. However from March 2003-early 2007 the beautiful green/max-green BOP filled stocks, with some being CANSLIM, and the CANSLIM only stocks ROCKED the market producing gains that were well beyond the returns of the overall market and the "regular" favorites of those that do not know how to find NEW EXCITING stocks (you know the MSFT, DELL, CSCO, INTC holders).
So as you can see, if this rally is going to be real, we are going to pullback, hold the lows of March, and then take off higher. If/when that happens, almost every single CANSLIM quality stock that I am watching to get long will then have their 50 day moving averages over the 200 day moving averages. This now sets them up in positions to make a lot of money once they breakout or bounce off a key support. Why? The 50 over the 200 signals that the worst is over and that now you have a stock trending higher without the weight of either itself or the market to bring it down.
Now, I want you to remember, this only qualifies for CANSLIM stocks, when it comes to speculative stocks, I am not looking to go heavily long ANY unless they are LOADED TO THE NINE with max-green BOP, huge accumulation, and great price action (something similar to THLD before Friday's selloff). When these charts show up and breakout, with CANSLIM stocks moving higher, then you know it is safe to go heavy into the speculative names. But until more CANSLIM stocks are like NFLX it might be a while before we can expect to have something like MAMA (now CNIC) move up 230% in 10 days.
By the way, MAMA's 230% gain was only FOUR YEARS AFTER THE MARKET BOTTOM, ONCE AGAIN PROVING THAT YOU NEVER NEED TO NAIL THE BOTTOM FOR BIG RESULTS. EGHT up 300% in one month came a FULL YEAR AFTER the 2002 bottom. IST came ALMOST TWO YEARS after the bottom (350% move). ERS and GIGM with their 550% and 250% gains came in 2005 only three years AFTER the bottom. So get this "I missed the rally BULL SH*T" out of your head!!!!! I have heard it from some and I guess they are BRAND NEW to the market or else 97, 98, 99, 03 would have all proven that you don't need to buy THE bottom to KILL it in the market.
If you have to ask me how do I feel about this market right now, I have to honestly say, OF COURSE, that ANYTHING could happen. However, the chart patterns are setting up like the market wants to conintue to rally. At the same time, I see stocks that looked like they were ready DIE. The good news is that NONE of these stocks are CANSLIM stocks but seeing HOT HOT HOT chart patterns start up in CKSW, MIPS, INFI, and some others only to see them lose the "near-perfection" of their charts is always a bummer.
However, focusing on these cheap stocks like PALM gets you in a lot of trouble. The smarter play is to stick with high quality longs that are of some type of CANSLIM worthy. When I look at the EPS and sales growth in actually quite a few of these CANSLIM stocks I am sort of surprised to see continuous growth in EPS and sales, despite the recession we are in. The sad news is that a lot of the top top top best-of-the-best charts are all in China. None of them are at buy points and buying giving out the list of Chinese stocks I am watching, current subscribers can feel safe in knowing that those reading this will have no clue when we go long a HOT Chinese stock that does what it is supposed to do. Chinese stocks like SINA and SOHU are not what we are watching. Instead I would like everyone to know that I am not fully biased to Chinese stocks. They still have to have the chart, fundies, and market to go with it.
The way the SSEC-X (Shanghai Se Composite) has moved off its lows in November and March it is quite apparant that those indexes are outperforming our top index during that time which was the Nasdaq. From November to now, the Nasdaq has moved 27% while the Shanghai Se has moved an outstanding 47%.
This continues the trend of Chinese stocks being more powerful than US stocks. From 1995-2000 (five years) the Nasdaq was able to rally a very impressive 538%. This length of time and the uptrend allowed breakout/momentum players to constantly move from one stock that was making a climax top to another stock just breaking out. You could then repeat this for the five years and at the end you were extremely wealthy with people like Dan Zanger turning thousands into multi-millions. Sadly, for me, I did not "get it" fully (I started April 1996) until late 1998. Now that blessed me in that I got the 1999 madness. However, as the story of IOM, AMER, and all those semiconductor/internet/software stocks goes down in history, I sadly was not part of most of it. I only got 1999. So the 538% move was impressive but I only got in on the end as I was too young to care about stocks in 1994 (13/14 yrs. old).
Now let's compare the 5 year 538% move to China's best move of 483%. As you can see the USA did 50% better than China during its biggest uptrend (95-00) versus China's biggest uptrend. But how long did it take China to make that 483% gain? Uh...ONLY TWO YEARS AND TWO MONTHS from 2005-2007. So if China would have kept moving up at the same rate it was and lasted as long as the US rally China would have had a gain of 966%. So the USA's five year move of 538% would have been matched during the same length of time by China's 966% move. So you tell me which country is more free and is has the better possibility of growth. I think it is clear China is where it is at and as long as it continues to be where it is at, i will be very happy for a potential further rally.
The most important indexes for me, my entire life have been the Nasdaq, SP600, and SP400. I have always made sure they were leading or moving higher ahead of the market to be bullish. But starting in 2001 the IBD 85-85 index was introduced to follow those stocks in IBD with the market. This is now (along with the IBD 100 introduced in 2003) the most important index to follow. Why? Because the stocks that go on to make the biggest price gains are normally leaders. So now we have an index to strictly track the stocks that historically have well outpaced the market.
These indexes is what made me 100% confident in the 2002 lows and ESPEICALLY the March 2003 Follow-through Day, that things were going to be great. Just like now, back then, more and more charts started to show up with pretty patterns of heavy accumulation and green BOP all over them. The only difference mainly is that back then a LOT more max green BOP charts were existing and basing out in perfect round to flat bases. This time the bases are not only shorter but the max green BOP filled charts aren't out there. It is mainly just green BOP filled charts in the speculative stocks. And as I have said OVER-AND-OVER speculative gems should have both quiet bases and heavy volume rallies with max green BOP the whole way. Study all my past big winners from 2003, IST from 2004, GIGM in 2005, HRZ 2006, and AFSI 2007. Now AFSI, HRZ, and IST were not speculative but the perfection in the charts is what I want you to memorize for a speculative stock.
Right now, we have a lot of nice green BOP and some max-green BOP filled spec. stocks. But until more CANSLIM stocks breakout of ANY kind of postive-yellow, green, or max-green BOP pattern with a tight base on low volume and a breakout on heavy volume, I would avoid going long speculative gems in large amounts.
When BIDU, JRJC, CYOU, CSKI, NTES, SNDA, CMED, LFT, MR, CEO, HRBN, CTRP, YZC, CHL, ASIA, JST, STP, SPIL, COGO, HMIN, CTEL, PWRD, SOHU, WBMD, and SINA finish setting up the bases that they are ALL attempting to build (CTEL is the prettiest BUT THE CHEAPEST), I am sure this market will take off and reap us some great rewards. Chinese CANSLIM quality stocks along with some of America's finest like NFLX, CYBS, BKE, NVEC, SYNA, TNDM, INT, JCOM, and GMCR moving higher will then provide the support and juice we need to take the gains from these great stocks and stick them into stocks like MAMA in 2006 that move up 230% in 10 days or BFUN in 2005 that moved up 300% in 10 day. Speculative stocks will work but ONLY AFTER/WHEN the CANSLIM quality longs are working.
So for now, keep your eye on the LEADING Nasdaq, SP600, SP400 indexes for that moment when the IBD 100 and 1BD 85-85 index start moving ahead of them thus opening up our moment to CRUSH the returns being made by anyone else I know out there BESIDES THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN VERY LUCKY OR THOSE THAT ARE ACTUALLY DARN GOOD AT DAYTRADING. And for those of you daytrading penny stocks to the wonderland, great of you! To each their own and I can only hope that your penny daytrading will give you a 2,300% return in nine months, one day, like buying TASR did for us. You had to work your BUTT OFF but we just went into a coma in nine months and woke up and made our sell.
Right now, things are setting up beautifully but those being rewarded are still those that have basically had their ARSES HANDED TO THEM in 2008. If you are up 10%+ this year, congratulations! Too bad you were down 45% last year on top of your 10% gain this year for a net return of -35%. Good job guys (rolling eyes).
top longs/(shorts) w/ total returns making money today: AIPC 27% ANCI 63% KONG 20% (MCY 18% GGB 53% POT 46% MOS 50% K 19% GTIV 40% CYT 70%)
VIDEO ONE: GENERAL MARKET (10:00), VIDEO TWO: LONGS/SHORTS/SELLS/COVERS (15:00), VIDEO THREE: POTENTIAL FUTURE CANSLIM LONGS AND BEAUTIFUL SPECULATIVE STOCK SETUPS (15:00), AND VIDEO FOUR: CONTINUATION FROM VIDEO THREE (25:00) ARE AVIALABLE FOR VIEWING BY GOLD AND PLATINUM SUBSCRIBERS. LEARN, EARN, AND HAVE A GREAT TIME THIS WEEKEND! ALOHA!
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