Stocks ended the week the way that they started with all indexes closing down across the board with indexes down anywhere from .1% on the Nasdaq to down 1.6% on the NYSE. The bad news about the losses, today, is that the NYSE and SP-500 (-1.1%) suffered a clear distribution day. The DJIA had a huge distribution day but the bullish intraday reversal and the huge level of volume would appear to be more short-term bullish for me. Why? Because the DJIA has been down 20 of 31 days before today's huge volume down day's intraday bullish reversal. Either way technically they are distribution days but when using "art" with "science" it is clear to see today's losses were not vicious.
What is more problematic is that the longs scans looked worse than only a 1% down day. That just tells me that the market probably is in no mood to rally any time soon and this is probably why we can not find ANY "hottie" chart patterns or high quality CANSLIM stocks setting up in proper patterns with growing fundamentals. The market has turned down on the micro and macro and it will take time to get these stocks growing again. It will even take longer if we go down the road to socialism. If we take a track that has proven to NEVER EVER work in the history of the world, then it might be safe to say the "hottie" stocks might not setup. If that is the case, we will just keep focusing on our shorts in the market and our gold/silver/platinum longs which will make us excellent money in a market like that.
A lot of people seem to not realize that there is a HUGE correlation between long bull markets and technology and financials leading. Even in 2003 the huge bull market rally that we saw that year did not just have technology leading it also had banking leading. Stocks like GS were leading the sector higher making these companies a lot of money. This happened in 1999 also as one of my best longs was a payment system stock that worked in banks. So you normally need banks to help rally the market if you have a healthy market. So I am sitting here wondering what is going to happen if the socialist agenda of our Congress is put in place and our banks become nationalized. You better pray to the Lord above that this doesn't happen. It will flatline and kill banks as investment vehicles and somehow excess capacity will have to be moved from these dead banks to new alive stocks that haven't been killed by socialism yet. There are always future technologies like nano dust, artificial intelligence, security, robotics, and many other green technologies. However, if the venture capitalist have no capital to loan and the banks have no money to loan. NOBODY is going to make money. So let's pray our system makes it through this.
For the week, the market took it on the chin with the IBD 100 falling 4.5%, the DJ down 6.2%, the NYSE lost a whopping 7.7%, the SP 500 lost 6.9%, and the Nasdaq lost 6.1%. It was not a pretty week and that can be confirmed with the amount of longs we had decrease from 10 to 5 and our shorts increase from 39 to 43. I think it is obvious which side is the right side right now, unless you are keeping warm in cash.
With the mess our leaders are making with these trillion dollar SPENDINGULUS bills, these $75 billion housing plans, this exponential printing of money, and the nationalization of banks have me thinking only one thing for the long-term. That is GOLD baby! My gut tells me ANY pullback we can EVER get to the 50 day moving average or the 200 day moving average should be an area that we buy a LOT of gold. The 21 DMA can even be used. However, I have 25% of my IRA in Gold and would not mind putting 50% in it if I can get a proper pullback. I will not chase and will remain patient and let it come to me. When my "hot" max green BOP filled, heavy accumulation filled, and excellent price action stocks setup, I will be going long and strong.
However, if they don't show up and an opportunity to go long comes along, a bounce of Gold right off the 50 day moving average sure looks like a smart thing to do when you have a long-term time frame based on the US Dollar collapsing under the spending in the gov., the corruption in the gov., the printing in the gov., and the lying in the gov. This will lead to China to stop buying and will send Gold/Silver/Platinum exploding higher. Gold is already made us a good amount of money in a short time and we hope more is left. Don't forget to keep an eye on AGQ for a BIG ultra silver play. This is a very bullish silver chart and any pullback BEFORE a climax run should be on a lot of investors wish list.
The bottom line this Friday is that I have had a GREAT week with our gold longs producing large gains in our big holdings, our shorts ALL did us very well giving us nice gains, and the best part is that we still have a LOT of cash on the sidelines to use in case any of those exciting stocks we have fallen in love with since 1998 come along and setup again. I know it will be sooner than later as we still have some nice charts holding up out there that could become "hot, perfect, wonderful" chart patterns in a few more weeks to months. We will see, it is still early. Remember everyone, CASH IS STILL KING, SHORTS ARE QUEEN, and GOLD/SILVER IS PRINCE!
top longs/(shorts) with TOTAL RETURNS since purchase MAKING ME MONEY TODAY: ANCI 56% (CETV 92% CEDC 82% CYT 68% SDA 79% RIMM 60% GGB 63% TITN 54% AMX 51% APD 44% OKE 44% IPHS 48% CEO 32% RDK 30% PG 21% CPRT 22% BOH 22% PLCE 29% AMSG 27% PRGO 25% LLL 19% K 19% WRB 15%)
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Showing posts with label growth stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label growth stocks. Show all posts
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Stock Market Indexes Breakdown On Heavy Volume Throwing Every Index Into A Downtrend; Our Gold Longs And Our Shorts Allowed Us To CLEAN UP On Tuesday!
It was a very ugly day for the stock market today but I have to admit that me and my subscribers were very happy as not only did 37 of our 39 shorts make money but our two biggest gold positions were up 9% and 3%+ today. So it is safe to say today was a very bullish day for subscribers and all I have to say is that IT USED TO ALWAYS BE LIKE THIS from 1996-2007. Only recently has things been turned upside down and even then our shorts are doing WONDERFUL proving that the trend will FOREVER be your BEST friend.
The one problem I have had with the downtrend is that unlike the 1997 pullback, 1998 pullback, or the 2000-2002 bear market, this is the first time (besides the March to May period in 2008 which was lame!!) where I have seen the market go so long without rewarding momentum/growth investors with at least a few "hot" stocks where they buck the major downtrend (like CRUS in 2000 or GNSS in 2001--both tech related). This downturn has been so harsh and has hit the whole macro-economy that NO stock is avoiding the downturn. There are a few but compared to any other year I have been doing this it is PATHETIC! Luckily, right now, stem-cell, pasta, and gold all have some momentum and these areas could still make us money if the market doesn't breakdown too much more. However, if the market falls apart, you can kiss these speculative leaders (stem cells) and real leaders (gold) goodnight.
It is possible gold, silver, and platinum stocks can do well. However, I think we need to have some better counter-trend rallies to really get any upside momentum that will allow us to make the 100%+ gains that I was used to getting before 2008 hit us. Gold, silver, and platinum might do well if the world doesn't feel safe buying our debt anymore but the actual stocks on the exchange will still be at the whims of the buyers (demand) and sellers (supply) forces of the market. Gold will replace the Dollar in some countries holdings as they diversify but I doubt those same countries will buy AEM, NEM, GG, ABX, or GOLD instead of the actual bullion.
This is why I think it is safe to buy Gold, Silver, and Platinum on pullbacks but NOT the stocks that are involved in those markets. They are still STOCKS and, since weak holders and small money goes into stocks more than futures, they are at the mercy of supply and demand imbalances caused by a fund liquidating or a big investor jumping ship. In the Gold market, if that investor decides to dump, I am pretty sure, RIGHT NOW, you will not have any problems finding a foreign buyer out there for the Gold. But for NEM or ABX? I doubt it.
Bottom line is this: the market is very ugly and the trend is now down on all four major time-frames that I use. This means that you should either be in cash waiting for the market to turn on volume so you can go long and heavily long on margin if we have leaders break out. Or it means that if you are experienced you should be looking to go short the low volume rallies. Just like we did today on two stocks that freshly broke down from low volume rallies. Take that along with another speculative stock on the long side and you have three new positions for tomorrow which is just as many as we saw TOTAL last week.
Last week we had ONLY 3 shorts. Those three shorts are all three lower than where we went short. Sadly one did swing us out of it with a TINY ITTY BITTY loss but NOW it is working. The other two are working really well and now even if they reverse we will be leaving with profits. The most important thing is that LAST WEEK I did not issue A SINGLE NEW LONG. By doing that I saved you from today's major collapse. Not only did I save you from today's major collapse by not getting you long but you made money by being short the recent short positions I have given out (with all my long-term winners posted below). The best part today, however, was seeing our longs net-up today with our two gold stocks (my two biggest long positions) having VERY bullish sessions today. So not only can we get it right on the short side, but as you can see (and how it was for over 10 years), even when it is a nasty day, we can get it right on the long side too.
Have a great Wednesday everyone. I will see you after the bell, on this .net site, tomorrow! Aloha!
top longs/(shorts) with their total returns MAKING ME MONEY TODAY: ANCI 57% (CEDC 80% CETV 90% CEO 30% IPHS 38% RIMM 55% GGB 58% MOS 54% OKE 40% AAPL 41% CPRT 27% MCY 22% LLL 19% SDA 77% PG 21% CASY 28% PRGO 20% PLCE 28% K 19% ARB 71% APD 44% AMSG 20% AMX 48% CYT 66% SPG 57% TITN 52% POT 51%)
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The one problem I have had with the downtrend is that unlike the 1997 pullback, 1998 pullback, or the 2000-2002 bear market, this is the first time (besides the March to May period in 2008 which was lame!!) where I have seen the market go so long without rewarding momentum/growth investors with at least a few "hot" stocks where they buck the major downtrend (like CRUS in 2000 or GNSS in 2001--both tech related). This downturn has been so harsh and has hit the whole macro-economy that NO stock is avoiding the downturn. There are a few but compared to any other year I have been doing this it is PATHETIC! Luckily, right now, stem-cell, pasta, and gold all have some momentum and these areas could still make us money if the market doesn't breakdown too much more. However, if the market falls apart, you can kiss these speculative leaders (stem cells) and real leaders (gold) goodnight.
It is possible gold, silver, and platinum stocks can do well. However, I think we need to have some better counter-trend rallies to really get any upside momentum that will allow us to make the 100%+ gains that I was used to getting before 2008 hit us. Gold, silver, and platinum might do well if the world doesn't feel safe buying our debt anymore but the actual stocks on the exchange will still be at the whims of the buyers (demand) and sellers (supply) forces of the market. Gold will replace the Dollar in some countries holdings as they diversify but I doubt those same countries will buy AEM, NEM, GG, ABX, or GOLD instead of the actual bullion.
This is why I think it is safe to buy Gold, Silver, and Platinum on pullbacks but NOT the stocks that are involved in those markets. They are still STOCKS and, since weak holders and small money goes into stocks more than futures, they are at the mercy of supply and demand imbalances caused by a fund liquidating or a big investor jumping ship. In the Gold market, if that investor decides to dump, I am pretty sure, RIGHT NOW, you will not have any problems finding a foreign buyer out there for the Gold. But for NEM or ABX? I doubt it.
Bottom line is this: the market is very ugly and the trend is now down on all four major time-frames that I use. This means that you should either be in cash waiting for the market to turn on volume so you can go long and heavily long on margin if we have leaders break out. Or it means that if you are experienced you should be looking to go short the low volume rallies. Just like we did today on two stocks that freshly broke down from low volume rallies. Take that along with another speculative stock on the long side and you have three new positions for tomorrow which is just as many as we saw TOTAL last week.
Last week we had ONLY 3 shorts. Those three shorts are all three lower than where we went short. Sadly one did swing us out of it with a TINY ITTY BITTY loss but NOW it is working. The other two are working really well and now even if they reverse we will be leaving with profits. The most important thing is that LAST WEEK I did not issue A SINGLE NEW LONG. By doing that I saved you from today's major collapse. Not only did I save you from today's major collapse by not getting you long but you made money by being short the recent short positions I have given out (with all my long-term winners posted below). The best part today, however, was seeing our longs net-up today with our two gold stocks (my two biggest long positions) having VERY bullish sessions today. So not only can we get it right on the short side, but as you can see (and how it was for over 10 years), even when it is a nasty day, we can get it right on the long side too.
Have a great Wednesday everyone. I will see you after the bell, on this .net site, tomorrow! Aloha!
top longs/(shorts) with their total returns MAKING ME MONEY TODAY: ANCI 57% (CEDC 80% CETV 90% CEO 30% IPHS 38% RIMM 55% GGB 58% MOS 54% OKE 40% AAPL 41% CPRT 27% MCY 22% LLL 19% SDA 77% PG 21% CASY 28% PRGO 20% PLCE 28% K 19% ARB 71% APD 44% AMSG 20% AMX 48% CYT 66% SPG 57% TITN 52% POT 51%)
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