Once again, it looks like the Fed, this time with GWB, has come to save the day for the stock market, as stocks rallied on the good news that the Fed and GWB are on the path to help distressed home owners with rising mortgage payments that they can not make. While I am okay with helping out the poor homeowners, as long as he does not help out the stupid lenders that practiced this predatory lending, I will happy.
As it was, the markets ended the low-volume holiday spirited week with gains across the board, with the NYSE leading the way with a 1.5% gain. However, that gain came on lower volume, unlike the Nasdaq which saw volume rise, but breadth was 6-to-1 in favor of advancers over decliners. The best index for the week was the IBD 100, gaining 1.4%. So the appetite of the buyers was very healthy, even though NONE of those buyers were “the smart” money. If they were, you would have seen volume over the 50 day volume average. As it was it was just another retail driven pre-holiday rally.
It was, however, despite the low volume, a very important week, with Wednesday signaling a follow-through day to the attempted rally that started on August 16. Even though the rally attempt came on day 10, the volume was well below the 50 day volume average, and there were almost zero stocks with top fundamentals and great chart patterns breaking out of fresh and well formed bases. Overall, we can confidently say that this follow-through was very weak and was very uneventful. That is what normally happens when you get one of these low volume follow-through days before a long holiday weekend in the summer.
The thing you have to remember is that despite the follow-through happening on low volume, thus increasing its chances for failure down the road, we still had a follow-through and it has to be respected. Being disciplined and respecting the rules is the only way to prevent yourself from missing a possible uptrend that could come from this. Looking for longs and not convincing yourself that “this rally will fail” (how many times did I hear that on Thursday and Friday??) is your only concern right now. If we can’t find any new longs breaking out of green, tight, accumulation filled bases and the market rolls over, then you cut your losses. It is that easy.
But, if you try to outsmart the market and show it how smart you are, you are going to look as ridiculous as EVERYONE (AND I MEAN EVERYONE) did during the July/August lows in 2006. While I was not bullish on those lows because of the low volume and lack of strong longs, I still respected the trend and went long many stocks that made 50%-100% gains. Finding these three gems (HRZ, AFSI, and TESO–all produced 50% gains quickly) that I loaded up on enabled me to make some very nice gains while many people struggled with the last rally. This is why WE follow rules and not sheeple.
Now, how will we know if this rally is going to fail? We will know if this rally is going to fail if all of a sudden we start getting hit with distribution days. It only takes one distribution day to throw the rally into trouble. But if we get four to five distribution days before breaking the August 16 lows, you can guarantee it will not be long before those lows are breached. The also other OBVIOUS signal that this rally has failed will be if we pierce those August 16 lows. That is your failure line.
Right now, sentiment seems to be a bit bearish and that, in turn, is bullish for equities. The put/call ratio hovered around .8 to 1.10 all week long and closed Friday at a still pretty high .90. That clearly is showing us that the retail crowd is placing nearly as many bearish bets as long bets. When the crowd thinks they are smart enough to make money on the downside, it is probably safe to assume the downside is not the side to be on. This also lines up with the Investors Intelligence survey. This survey shows only 41% bulls to 37% bears. While this number did NOT cross, normally confirming a market bottom, the fact that these numbers have touched definitely shows that there are enough bears out there to produce a rally as their money comes in off the sidelines. However, it would have been a lot better if the bulls and bears would have crossed. That definitely would have me thinking we bottomed. But, there is still more possible work to do. If the bears were at 45% and the bulls were at 35%, and I had some nice green charts, you better believe I would be in the “bottom calling” camp.
Some things that make it hard for me to believe all the selling is over is that we have absolutely no new leaders with nice charts stepping up currently. Now, that could change, with the Computer and Internet-E Commerce groups moving up the ranks, along with the Telecom stocks showing their muscle leading stocks with the amount of new 52-week highs on Friday. If these stocks can find me some fresh leaders, then I will be much happier. But as it is most of these groups don’t have much working for them just yet.
Instead, we have the Food-Dairy Products group leading this current rally. THAT IS NOT BULLISH. The other problem I see is that we are being led up by a select and very small group of big-cap growth (most being tech) stocks. GRMN, GOOG, BIDU, AAPL, RIMM, DRYS, CELG, ZNH, LFC, TNH, CHL, EXM, and FWLT continue to just breakout, build a sloppy base, breakout, build another sloppy base, breakout, and do this over and over. So far so good, with these stocks. However, IF their uptrends ever stop, you can bet that the markets selloff will just be beginning. Many inexperienced investors already see these stocks as a buy on every dip. Soon they will be convinced that EVERY dip is a buy, no matter how many dips they have. When that happens, you better believe I will be short and maxed out on margin in these once loved former leaders.
One other key thing about this rally attempt is that only the SP-500 has a B rating. When the stock market bottomed in March 2003 (after putting in the real bottom in October 2002) the Nasdaq carried an ACC/DIS rating of an A-. So even if we have in fact made a short-term bottom, it is almost guaranteed to not be ready for a real rally for at least a very long time, as there is plenty of distribution still lingering in this market. When you have the IBD 100 with a D- for an ACC/DIS rating, it seriously can’t be all that great out there. Take this along with the fact that the only index above the 50 day moving average is the Nasdaq and you have a market that still has plenty of headwinds facing it, despite that follow-through.
In honesty, it still appears, the best play is to continue to stay long your strong stocks in an uptrend, to keep new buys and new shorts small unless the charts are perfect (not many like that at all), cut your losses fast on those stocks that do not work out, and to try to stay off too much margin and remain cash heavy until a clear trend establishes itself. I hate to tell you, but, right now, there is no solid uptrend or downtrend; just a big wild low-volume mess that is sure to only continue.
WINNERS: KHD 131% ZNH 238% MOS 140% EBIX 60% VDSI 141% CRNT 105% OMTR 215% BCSI 91% ANO 167% FSLR 59%
Showing posts with label old leaders. Show all posts
Showing posts with label old leaders. Show all posts
Monday, September 03, 2007
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Bulls Fight Off The Bears, Once Again, As Stocks Rally On Lower Volume To Close At Their HOD
Bulls Fight Off The Bears, Once Again, As Stocks Rally On Lower Volume To Close At Their HOD
By MauiTrader
The recent theme of this market has been that all economic news is moving the market. This may be due to the fact that less institutional investors are around to make bets on stocks (the low volume confirms this) but still the fact that the market is so easily moved around shows just how uneasy and unsure investors are. Today was no different.
Early in the morning we received the latest PPI report that showed a 1% jump in March after February’s 1.3% gain. It was the core PPI, however, that had the positive impact on stocks as the core remained flat compared to expectations of a .2% increase. This, along with the earnings from GE, helped get stocks off to a positive start. But those gains were soon eliminated after the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey fell to 85.3 in April from 88.4 in March, below expectations of 87.5, echoing the IBD/TIPP poll released earlier this month.
Proving, though, that the dip-buyers are still in complete control, right after that selloff, stocks found a bottom. Stocks then rallied for the rest of the session closing near or at their intraday highs. The rally picked up steam after comments from Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher made comments about how globalization is helping raise world productivity that in-effect has positive pricing pressure consequences for the USA. That was good enough to bring in the retail crowd. The rally was well along, when a little before 3pm EST the Chief Development/Operating Officer of CSCO said that Cisco’s customers were at the early stages of a new upgrade cycle. That helped give the Nasdaq a huge jolt sending it to its HOD.
At the close, bulls were in control, once again, with the DJIA, Nasdaq, SP 600, and NYSE all up .5%. The SP 500 lagged with a .4% gain. The DJIA got a big boost thanks to an 8% rise in MRK off the back of a positive ruling over Vioxx. Once again, for the fourth session in-a-row, the IBD 100 lagged the broad market with a .4% gain. I hate to tell you this, folks, the best bull markets that have long term staying power ALWAYS have these high quality stocks leading. The fact that they are still lagging this current rally and the overall rally since the July and August lows last year signals that we are on or near the last leg of this bull market that has been going on since March of 2003 without a 10% decline in the DJIA.
Volume was lower by about 5% on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq and once again neither average traded enough shares to even equal its 50 day volume average. Institutional investors are still on the sidelines except when they decide to sell stocks. Then they show up. That is why we have two distribution days with higher volume than the two accumulation days since we followed-through. The good news, today, on the volume, is that the volume picked up as we rallied late-in-the-day off the back of the CSCO news.
Underneath the price gains, the market showed that it is doing well and is not signaling anything drastic after Friday’s session. Breadth was positive on both exchanges, with advancers beating decliners by a 10-to-7 margin on the NYSE and by a 3-to-2 margin on the Nasdaq. There were 459 new 52-week highs and 50 new 52-week lows, with the Chemical-Fertilizer group having 36% of their components hitting that mark. The put/call ratio is still a bit high at .9, which indicates that options traders are still making enough bearish bets that fuel for more price gains.
For the week, the market did very well, with the NYSE leading the way with a 1% gain, the Nasdaq followed with a .8% gain, the SP 600 came in with a .7% increase, the SP 500 was next with a .6% gain, and the DJIA was the laggard with only a .4% gain. Overall it appeared to be a very bullish week but without volume it is hard to definitively say that this market deserves an all-clear signal. My defenses are still up and armed ready for a sudden change should it develop.
My problem is that this light volume rally still gives me the feeling that the retail crowd (dumb money), shorts that are forced to cover their shorts, and daytraders are the ones moving this market. There is a quick visual way to describe what I see: Look at a daily chart of the Nasdaq; now count how many big red bars you see this year compared to big green bars. Do the same thing for the NYSE. Now do this on a weekly chart of both indexes. You will clearly see that the big red bars (distribution) are more frequent than the green bars (distribution). Even though most indexes are overall doing fine in the acc/dist rating, the NYSE has a C and the SP 500 has a D. This despite both being at or very near their all-time highs. This is a bearish development. Now this can be worked off if a ton of accumulation rushes in but for right now that is not happening.
What appears to be happening is that after February 27 the big boys sold stocks, the dumb money came in and starting to buy the dip-since all dips are buys since 2003. When they started to buy the dip, the traders who were for sure the market had topped then started shorting stocks. As the dumb money keeps buying stocks and as the daytraders stay active in bidding up the hot momo stocks (bio and solar), the shorts are then forced to cover their poor trade. This then sends stocks higher and then the big boys dump on them creating another distribution day (April 11) and then we start the whole process all over again. That is why we keep having low volume rallies and we have two distribution days since the market followed-through on March 21st. It is a very smart game the best of the best play. I know this game well. They did it before the 20th century and they will be doing this in the 22nd century.
To go along with what I see in the indexes, I see classic situations of a market near its end. Daytraders are back and are moving stocks, once again. This time the solar stocks, as I have been saying for months now, are the momo monsters. However, another group has joined them after the DNDN announcement: biotech. Biotech stocks are now moving all over the place, with many making very large price gains. I am willing to play these momo monsters but they still must breakout from sound chart patterns. They have to setup like ASTI. Stocks like JASO, TSL, and SPWR are breaking out of sloppy ugly bases. If I was daytrading these bad boys, I am sure I would be doing OK. However, I like to position trade now for the big gains. If the base is ugly, I pass. It is a simple as that. However, the game right now is to daytrade the biotechs, golds, and solar.
Take that speculation now in this market along with all of these low-priced POS that I have flying everywhere and it becomes quite clear to me we are entering a very speculative stage of this market. So, if we are getting a lot of momo stocks in the low-priced, solar, gold, and bio area to prove that it is not speculative all the high priced stocks are moving too right? Wrong. The real leaders in these groups have already made their runs (besides solar) and now the sub-$5 stocks are cooking. Is that a problem? Not at all. In fact at this point this is where we can make a TON of money as long as this trend last. Even if it doesn’t last that long, that is why we cut losses. But if this is the last hurrah, many of the stocks I have recently gone long should produce some big gains.
What else makes me think we are near the end? The fact that the old leaders from the 2003-2006 bull are back again. Oil&Gas, Gold, Steel, Metals, Transports and Commodities are all moving again. This time the leaders are making moves in some and not in others. The old leaders that are not leading again are setting up bases so there could be a lot more upside left in these. But along with these stocks, we don’t have financials, tech, and housing. We have Utilities, Defense, Food, and Medical stocks. The rotation has been out of leading high-tech and high-growth stocks into defensive and safety issues.
Even though I am cautious as can be on this market and have outlined everything I find wrong with this market that I did not find wrong with the market AT ALL in 2003 and 2004, it doesn’t effect my trading. I am long 230 stocks and most are very speculative so are very small. The fact that few CANSLIM quality stocks are breaking out is the reason I am not 200% invested. This market is obviously not acting right to not have me fully invested with it at all-time highs. Trust me, if this market was a rip-roaring raging bull market full of CANSLIM quality charts breaking out left and right, I would be 200% invested. However, since it is all crap I am not looking to become a wealthy rich individual here. I am simple trying to make sure I make a comfortable living so I can pay all my bills on Maui. That is all I want right here. If these stocks FLY!!! then I will get very wealthy. If they don’t, they are breaking out of patterns that should provide some nice gains.
It should be a busy upcoming week, with earnings announcements everywhere and the CPI being released on Tuesday. The CPI is sure to be market moving news but the earnings are sure to make anything off of that meaningless by the end of the week. We have announcements from such tech companies as IBM INTC EMC STX YHOO GOOG. So far the earnings have not been that great and as I have said before Analyst are expecting gains of 3.7% in YOY earnings this quarter. That is down from 8.7% estimates, earlier this year (not a good sign). Also, the expected 3.7% YOY gain will be the first gain in 14 quarters of non-double digit growth. As earnings go, so goes the market. Historically you can watch the trend of the GDP growth and earnings growth of an economy and see that they are the best predictor of what direction the stock market will take. GDP and earnings lead the market.
Take that along with what I see in the indexes and in my charts and it just becomes clear to me that there is not a whole lot left in this rally. Maybe a month to three months. But I can’t imagine by next quarter we will be higher with all the bad numbers, old leaders, and speculative situations I see. We will know it is ending when we get more distribution days in the market. Right now, we have two since the rally followed-through on March 21. Two more next week would raise caution flags everywhere and would definitely make me think about cutting losses much shorter than I normally allow low-priced junk POS stocks. But until I see that distribution, I will continue to ride the trend of the cocky bullish daytraders. Those daytraders are a brazen bunch.
The only other interesting piece of information I saw this weekend was that the Bradley stock market model sees a significant turn date (bearish) on Friday April 20. This is a stock market timing model based off of astrology and has been quite impressive at calling turns. However, sometimes the turn it calls for happens…in the opposite direction. So this model is shaky but it did get the March 13, 2003 bottom right on the money. However, it has a spotty record of tops. But with all the bearish situations I see in a bullish rising market, along with all my longs being so speculative, this is something for me to keep in the back of my mind as we continue on with our overbought speculative low volume old-leader filled bull market.
Aloha and I will see you in the chat room. Have a great Saturday and Sunday!!!
Sidenote: DEATHS DOWN 45% FROM FEB 14 - APR 14 (1586) COMPARED TO TWO PRIOR MONTHS DEC 14 - FEB 14 (2871) IN BAGHDAD. I hate our liberal media. Thank God I know how to read and find information on my own.
Market Commentary At Big Wave Trading Bronze Level One.
Top Holdings Up This Week - Signal Date
KNOL 332% - 1/12/06
AKAM 230% - 9/30/05
TRCR 191% - 1/12
CVO 189% - 8/18/05
TTEC 175% - 8/25
JSDA 164% - 12/20
TNH 141% - 10/26
OMTR 134% - 9/15
CCOI 130% - 9/27
MEH 109% - 8/30
HRZ 105% - 9/27
NEXC 101% - 10/25
CLRT 100% - 11/30
EVEP 97% - 11/16
SLP 94% - 2/5
CPA 91% - 9/15
MFW 89% - 1/29
ONT 85% - 12/21
CHINA 82% - 8/16
IMMU 79% - 12/19
IGLD 77% - 10/26
ULTR 74% - 10/27
MOS 73% - 10/12
ANO 71% - 2/14
PRGX 69% - 1/12
IMKTA 69% - 8/28
HURN 69% - 9/13
IIVI 66% - 8/30
DA 64% - 1/25/06
PERY 64% - 10/4
KHDH 59% - 5/30
CXW 59% - 5/19
EPHC 59% - 12/20
BAM 56% - 11/17/05
DECK 51% - 9/13
ECGI 50% - 10/20
APLX 50% - 9/28
New Swing Longs: Silver Level Two
New Swing Shorts: Silver Level Two
Stocks On My Watchlist: Gold Level Three
Complete Profits/Losses: Gold Level Three
Partial Profits/Losses: Gold Level Three
MauiTrader Forums: Gold Level Three
MauiTrader Chat Room: Gold Level Three
Longs Up On The Day: Gold Level Three
Shorts Up On The Day: Gold Level Three
By MauiTrader
The recent theme of this market has been that all economic news is moving the market. This may be due to the fact that less institutional investors are around to make bets on stocks (the low volume confirms this) but still the fact that the market is so easily moved around shows just how uneasy and unsure investors are. Today was no different.
Early in the morning we received the latest PPI report that showed a 1% jump in March after February’s 1.3% gain. It was the core PPI, however, that had the positive impact on stocks as the core remained flat compared to expectations of a .2% increase. This, along with the earnings from GE, helped get stocks off to a positive start. But those gains were soon eliminated after the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey fell to 85.3 in April from 88.4 in March, below expectations of 87.5, echoing the IBD/TIPP poll released earlier this month.
Proving, though, that the dip-buyers are still in complete control, right after that selloff, stocks found a bottom. Stocks then rallied for the rest of the session closing near or at their intraday highs. The rally picked up steam after comments from Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher made comments about how globalization is helping raise world productivity that in-effect has positive pricing pressure consequences for the USA. That was good enough to bring in the retail crowd. The rally was well along, when a little before 3pm EST the Chief Development/Operating Officer of CSCO said that Cisco’s customers were at the early stages of a new upgrade cycle. That helped give the Nasdaq a huge jolt sending it to its HOD.
At the close, bulls were in control, once again, with the DJIA, Nasdaq, SP 600, and NYSE all up .5%. The SP 500 lagged with a .4% gain. The DJIA got a big boost thanks to an 8% rise in MRK off the back of a positive ruling over Vioxx. Once again, for the fourth session in-a-row, the IBD 100 lagged the broad market with a .4% gain. I hate to tell you this, folks, the best bull markets that have long term staying power ALWAYS have these high quality stocks leading. The fact that they are still lagging this current rally and the overall rally since the July and August lows last year signals that we are on or near the last leg of this bull market that has been going on since March of 2003 without a 10% decline in the DJIA.
Volume was lower by about 5% on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq and once again neither average traded enough shares to even equal its 50 day volume average. Institutional investors are still on the sidelines except when they decide to sell stocks. Then they show up. That is why we have two distribution days with higher volume than the two accumulation days since we followed-through. The good news, today, on the volume, is that the volume picked up as we rallied late-in-the-day off the back of the CSCO news.
Underneath the price gains, the market showed that it is doing well and is not signaling anything drastic after Friday’s session. Breadth was positive on both exchanges, with advancers beating decliners by a 10-to-7 margin on the NYSE and by a 3-to-2 margin on the Nasdaq. There were 459 new 52-week highs and 50 new 52-week lows, with the Chemical-Fertilizer group having 36% of their components hitting that mark. The put/call ratio is still a bit high at .9, which indicates that options traders are still making enough bearish bets that fuel for more price gains.
For the week, the market did very well, with the NYSE leading the way with a 1% gain, the Nasdaq followed with a .8% gain, the SP 600 came in with a .7% increase, the SP 500 was next with a .6% gain, and the DJIA was the laggard with only a .4% gain. Overall it appeared to be a very bullish week but without volume it is hard to definitively say that this market deserves an all-clear signal. My defenses are still up and armed ready for a sudden change should it develop.
My problem is that this light volume rally still gives me the feeling that the retail crowd (dumb money), shorts that are forced to cover their shorts, and daytraders are the ones moving this market. There is a quick visual way to describe what I see: Look at a daily chart of the Nasdaq; now count how many big red bars you see this year compared to big green bars. Do the same thing for the NYSE. Now do this on a weekly chart of both indexes. You will clearly see that the big red bars (distribution) are more frequent than the green bars (distribution). Even though most indexes are overall doing fine in the acc/dist rating, the NYSE has a C and the SP 500 has a D. This despite both being at or very near their all-time highs. This is a bearish development. Now this can be worked off if a ton of accumulation rushes in but for right now that is not happening.
What appears to be happening is that after February 27 the big boys sold stocks, the dumb money came in and starting to buy the dip-since all dips are buys since 2003. When they started to buy the dip, the traders who were for sure the market had topped then started shorting stocks. As the dumb money keeps buying stocks and as the daytraders stay active in bidding up the hot momo stocks (bio and solar), the shorts are then forced to cover their poor trade. This then sends stocks higher and then the big boys dump on them creating another distribution day (April 11) and then we start the whole process all over again. That is why we keep having low volume rallies and we have two distribution days since the market followed-through on March 21st. It is a very smart game the best of the best play. I know this game well. They did it before the 20th century and they will be doing this in the 22nd century.
To go along with what I see in the indexes, I see classic situations of a market near its end. Daytraders are back and are moving stocks, once again. This time the solar stocks, as I have been saying for months now, are the momo monsters. However, another group has joined them after the DNDN announcement: biotech. Biotech stocks are now moving all over the place, with many making very large price gains. I am willing to play these momo monsters but they still must breakout from sound chart patterns. They have to setup like ASTI. Stocks like JASO, TSL, and SPWR are breaking out of sloppy ugly bases. If I was daytrading these bad boys, I am sure I would be doing OK. However, I like to position trade now for the big gains. If the base is ugly, I pass. It is a simple as that. However, the game right now is to daytrade the biotechs, golds, and solar.
Take that speculation now in this market along with all of these low-priced POS that I have flying everywhere and it becomes quite clear to me we are entering a very speculative stage of this market. So, if we are getting a lot of momo stocks in the low-priced, solar, gold, and bio area to prove that it is not speculative all the high priced stocks are moving too right? Wrong. The real leaders in these groups have already made their runs (besides solar) and now the sub-$5 stocks are cooking. Is that a problem? Not at all. In fact at this point this is where we can make a TON of money as long as this trend last. Even if it doesn’t last that long, that is why we cut losses. But if this is the last hurrah, many of the stocks I have recently gone long should produce some big gains.
What else makes me think we are near the end? The fact that the old leaders from the 2003-2006 bull are back again. Oil&Gas, Gold, Steel, Metals, Transports and Commodities are all moving again. This time the leaders are making moves in some and not in others. The old leaders that are not leading again are setting up bases so there could be a lot more upside left in these. But along with these stocks, we don’t have financials, tech, and housing. We have Utilities, Defense, Food, and Medical stocks. The rotation has been out of leading high-tech and high-growth stocks into defensive and safety issues.
Even though I am cautious as can be on this market and have outlined everything I find wrong with this market that I did not find wrong with the market AT ALL in 2003 and 2004, it doesn’t effect my trading. I am long 230 stocks and most are very speculative so are very small. The fact that few CANSLIM quality stocks are breaking out is the reason I am not 200% invested. This market is obviously not acting right to not have me fully invested with it at all-time highs. Trust me, if this market was a rip-roaring raging bull market full of CANSLIM quality charts breaking out left and right, I would be 200% invested. However, since it is all crap I am not looking to become a wealthy rich individual here. I am simple trying to make sure I make a comfortable living so I can pay all my bills on Maui. That is all I want right here. If these stocks FLY!!! then I will get very wealthy. If they don’t, they are breaking out of patterns that should provide some nice gains.
It should be a busy upcoming week, with earnings announcements everywhere and the CPI being released on Tuesday. The CPI is sure to be market moving news but the earnings are sure to make anything off of that meaningless by the end of the week. We have announcements from such tech companies as IBM INTC EMC STX YHOO GOOG. So far the earnings have not been that great and as I have said before Analyst are expecting gains of 3.7% in YOY earnings this quarter. That is down from 8.7% estimates, earlier this year (not a good sign). Also, the expected 3.7% YOY gain will be the first gain in 14 quarters of non-double digit growth. As earnings go, so goes the market. Historically you can watch the trend of the GDP growth and earnings growth of an economy and see that they are the best predictor of what direction the stock market will take. GDP and earnings lead the market.
Take that along with what I see in the indexes and in my charts and it just becomes clear to me that there is not a whole lot left in this rally. Maybe a month to three months. But I can’t imagine by next quarter we will be higher with all the bad numbers, old leaders, and speculative situations I see. We will know it is ending when we get more distribution days in the market. Right now, we have two since the rally followed-through on March 21. Two more next week would raise caution flags everywhere and would definitely make me think about cutting losses much shorter than I normally allow low-priced junk POS stocks. But until I see that distribution, I will continue to ride the trend of the cocky bullish daytraders. Those daytraders are a brazen bunch.
The only other interesting piece of information I saw this weekend was that the Bradley stock market model sees a significant turn date (bearish) on Friday April 20. This is a stock market timing model based off of astrology and has been quite impressive at calling turns. However, sometimes the turn it calls for happens…in the opposite direction. So this model is shaky but it did get the March 13, 2003 bottom right on the money. However, it has a spotty record of tops. But with all the bearish situations I see in a bullish rising market, along with all my longs being so speculative, this is something for me to keep in the back of my mind as we continue on with our overbought speculative low volume old-leader filled bull market.
Aloha and I will see you in the chat room. Have a great Saturday and Sunday!!!
Sidenote: DEATHS DOWN 45% FROM FEB 14 - APR 14 (1586) COMPARED TO TWO PRIOR MONTHS DEC 14 - FEB 14 (2871) IN BAGHDAD. I hate our liberal media. Thank God I know how to read and find information on my own.
Market Commentary At Big Wave Trading Bronze Level One.
Top Holdings Up This Week - Signal Date
KNOL 332% - 1/12/06
AKAM 230% - 9/30/05
TRCR 191% - 1/12
CVO 189% - 8/18/05
TTEC 175% - 8/25
JSDA 164% - 12/20
TNH 141% - 10/26
OMTR 134% - 9/15
CCOI 130% - 9/27
MEH 109% - 8/30
HRZ 105% - 9/27
NEXC 101% - 10/25
CLRT 100% - 11/30
EVEP 97% - 11/16
SLP 94% - 2/5
CPA 91% - 9/15
MFW 89% - 1/29
ONT 85% - 12/21
CHINA 82% - 8/16
IMMU 79% - 12/19
IGLD 77% - 10/26
ULTR 74% - 10/27
MOS 73% - 10/12
ANO 71% - 2/14
PRGX 69% - 1/12
IMKTA 69% - 8/28
HURN 69% - 9/13
IIVI 66% - 8/30
DA 64% - 1/25/06
PERY 64% - 10/4
KHDH 59% - 5/30
CXW 59% - 5/19
EPHC 59% - 12/20
BAM 56% - 11/17/05
DECK 51% - 9/13
ECGI 50% - 10/20
APLX 50% - 9/28
New Swing Longs: Silver Level Two
New Swing Shorts: Silver Level Two
Stocks On My Watchlist: Gold Level Three
Complete Profits/Losses: Gold Level Three
Partial Profits/Losses: Gold Level Three
MauiTrader Forums: Gold Level Three
MauiTrader Chat Room: Gold Level Three
Longs Up On The Day: Gold Level Three
Shorts Up On The Day: Gold Level Three
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