Long swing trades for May 31st continued...

Airlines and Restaurants have joined Retail, Tech, and Medical for industries with a lot of good chart patterns in individual names.

My longs that I initiated in the past month continue to look great and after taking only a small portion of my gains off the table today I continue to be heavily long and will put more money to work in the names I mentioned in earlier posting today and in some of the new names that I am not already long. Some awesome chart patterns reared their heads today in stocks I already am long and as you can see with the names today the market is going to give us more gains.

These patterns do not show up in weak "bull market" bounces. These are the chart patterns, in the strong sectors, that you see in real strong uptrend.

New Speculative Swings: TRGL AIR CAL TERN MHX TRY CHKR ECOL NMTI

Swing longs already have positions in: INNO AWGI BMD QUIK SPTN STTS

Swing longs already mentioned in blog as swings, with no positions: STEM BDCO CMRG CAND PWEI

Wanted to brag about three holdings also: ENG ABLE GEOI

Bottom line, it feels good to be on the right side of the market. Doesn't it?

Aloha

On surface it looks bad but after scanning my charts it looks Good!

The nasty close on the indexes gave me the impression that today was not as strong as it looked all day. Then after updating all my charts after the bell I noticed something. The individual stocks in my scan look great. So I would not read too much into a day like this except to say that this was a pullback in the uptrend. How long it last and will go I do not know but I would like to talk about something.

In 1994, The fed hiked rates for a full year. At the end of the cycle the market (SP500) was already drifting up and then went on to rally from 490 to 650 the next year. That market is very similar to this one. This market has dealt with almost a full year of rate hikes, has drifted upward, and is showing signs, with the individual charts, that this market is ready to break lose. If the market is anticipating the Fed is almost done like it did in 1994, I think we could see a nice 20% or so rally.

With todays bad close there should not be this many nice charts with great buying positions yet there are!

Long swing/position trades: GOL DCAI JMDT GEOI ASFI RYAAY BER
On a pullback: JDO -- mentioned this weekend in my last blog entry. A nice pullback to around today's open in the next 5 days would make a great long.

Aloha

Memorial Day Weekend; Thank You, Soldiers!

Just wanted to check in this Memorial Day weekend and wish everyone well.

The markets did nothing exciting Friday, yet I found a bunch of nice charts just primed for higher prices. The only thing is a lot of the stocks seem speculative so keeping tight cut losses (as always) and using a smaller portion of capital is waranted with stocks under $10.

Long positions to swing: ESL--needs a pullback, SNDA, RAVN, STST, DHC, ASR, LAN, BDCO, GEOI, JDO, MLP, CMGI, BMD, CCI, CNQ, CFK, CONN, and PWEI.

I wanted to toot my horn and congratulate all who profited with me on the ABLE and GEOI stock. ABLE up 40%, since mention six days ago. GEOI up 16%, since mention three days ago.

I toot my own horn for the simple reason to show investors who dont believe in this rally that it doesnt matter what you think is going to happen in the market. The market has decided the bears are wrong and that is that. So if you have not been long equities because prices are too expensive, the economy is in trouble, the war in Iraq, or any other bearish reason you have missed a lot of great opportunites to make money. Why not cut losses, ride the trend up, and then wait for the charts to agree with your bearish "opinions." That way you can profit from both sides of the market, no matter what you think!

THANK YOU SOLDIERS
GOD BLESS AMERICA

Aloha from Maui :)

What were we thinking? Stop momentum? Yeah right.

We just keep on chugging along. As I have said, over and over, momentum once it starts going is hard to stop. Today yet another boatload of high quality, fundamentally sound stocks broke out or bounced off moving averages on good volume.

Trading was slow today but volume rose indicating funds are still buying right here and they dont see stocks as "gone too far too fast" yet.

Trading is sure to be lame tomorrow with Memorial Day weekend coming up. I will be around but doubt it.

None-the-less there are tons of charts to still play and stocks like CWTR (up 11%) are plentiful. What an incredible month it has been for my portfolio!!

Long swing trades: WIND VRSN XXIA LSCP BBBB LABS PTRY FSL ORCT EMKR OMR DHC GLW ENTU FMX CSGS QUIK (again) VASC (again) MCX CSU

Aloha and have a great evening.

Finally a rest. It's about time...

Finally, the markets took a decent rest. The pullback came on lighter volume than yesterday. That is what you see in strong markets, after going up you pullback on low volume. Everything still looks good. I have great charts popping up today, even with the pullback, so the market still looks strong longer term. However, this pullback, is well welcomed to set up new positions.

I do have a caveat, however. I have been bullish on this market since May 4 and a couple days ago got cautious. I still remain cautious but with all the great charts out there (something you dont see in ALL rallies) I am leaning long still.

What don't I like about this market? The fact that since the April/May lows only one index has had a rally over 2% (SP600, May 18, 2.12%) is a bit disheartening. In good solid bottoms like March 2003, you usually get a couple of big moves over 2% on heavy volume somewhere along the early stages of a strong rally, in the indexes. We have not seen that and I think we should have seen that by now. However, we are in a low volume environment where 2% moves could now be hard to come by.

I hope everybody had a great day.

Long swing/position trades: PVH CTRP BSTE GLW VASC CWTR CAND GEOI

Longs alreay mentioned w/ another buy possibility: QUIK RATE STEM ASTM PRLS IVX DADE ABLE TAGS

Aloha and where is the surf??????

Will it Ever End

When momentum gets moving it is hard to stop, think of a train going down the railroad tracks. When this many bears are still around after the run up we have had, it is safe to assume there is more upside ahead.

When will it end? Well I have thought now for a couple of days we needed to pullback on all the indexes. Instead we moved higher again and now more people think we definitely need to pullback. Do you know what that means? We probably will not pullback.

You have to be prepared for the opposite of what you here from everybody and since cautious longs are not fully invested and shorts are covering and cant find a good entry point there is a lot of nervousness out there to what happens next. So what happens now in the process is a guess. But a rest is needed.

With all the good charts out there still, I am bullish longer term. However, a pullback is needed but I will say once again there is too many folks looking for a pullback so overbought markets can become more overbought.

I am still finding TONS of charts that are breaking out of good bases. This is how it looks in BULL markets. Not only that, all my longs that I have taken past three weeks continue to look great. What more can I ask for, for now?

Swing Long Positions: RATE WEBX TALK AIRT PARL TAGS TPE PRLS IVX TIVO

How about that ENG today. Gave the heads up on it twice 5/10 and yesterday. Up 26% today. Also, WGAT is waking up again. That was first mentioned on April 8th.

Aloha

Market Momentum Continues

Longs are taunting bears, INTC been up 16 of 17 days, Nasdaq BOP (balance of power on tc2k5) is green for two days in a row always a negative for this index, perma bears that have missed this move are now buying, and, after all those reversals in the indexes closing at the high of the days, the markets closed very weak in the last hour today.

What does this mean. I don't know. But I will guess that it is time to take a breather. We are up very nicely since the April/May lows and stocks look overheated, so a breather would be welcomed here. But, then again, overbought markets can become more overbought as momentum is a crazy beast. A market this strong will have a lot of buyers ready to put cash to work at good entry points.

Swing Longs: RADS ANTP FMX RGCI SNS

Swing Longs I have already mentioned giving another buy point: CLHB KYPH NRPH RIMG ENG

Aloha

Long swing trades

I am going to take positions in ABLE RAVN KYPH in the morning. The rest of the longs I either have already or will watch. DCTH might also make a nice speculative long as the base is almost complete.

NGPS -- needs a pullback to pivot of recent base
RRGB
LKQX
RAVN
SIRI
CMGI
ABLE -- needs a pullback for a larger position. A small one is ok for a speculative play
DDDC
DCTH
KYPH

I have had too much fun this weekend. I hope everyone else had a great time too. Time to get back to work.

Aloha

Market continues to act healthy

The market continues to act well showing gains on heavy volume, pullbacks on light, that are then bought for positive reversals. This is what happens in a healthy market. The whole year we have not seen action like this in the individual charts and usually after going up some on the indexes we would see distribution days shortly after. That is not happening this time. You know why? Bulls are back in control due to the heavy bearish sentiment out there.

A point I would like to hit on today is the fact that so many people are saying "just wait till the market collapses and then you will see the scam the market is." What??? The problem with that view is not that I disagree with it but the timing is just aweful. Maybe consumers are loaded with debt and cant spen, economy is going to slow down, rates are going to rise, or inflation is going to get us. But it is not happening NOW or will it happen next week.

If you would have played the trend and looked at all the bullish charts out there, you could have made some good money. Instead I hear everyone complaining how they lost money the past two weeks. I recommend reading my blog. :)

Go through the past two weeks and write down the symbols and dates and look and see how much they are up now. It doesnt matter what you think of the market, what matters is performance. I have written in this blog over 20 stocks that have moved up over 15% since May 4. AND IT IS FREE!!!!!

I will update with some more swing longs this weekend. I surfed all day and enjoyed the waves so I want to rest before scanning for new plays.

Aloha

More longs for tomorrow.

I expect a pullback, tomorrow, dont forget. But there are still a TON of beautiful charts out there. If you look at the longs I have listed last two weeks you will see a LOT of them up over 15% since mention. This is what happens in a bull market. Strong breakouts produce WELL ABOVE average gains than all the old beaten down stocks of the previous bull market.

Here are some more leading stocks (I have mentioned some before :) for swing-long trades:
COI WMS HTRN QUIK BMD STEM ASTM CKR FCN STTS FOXH CBG VASC CGT

What a great rally we have had!! Hope you profited on it too.

Aloha

Rally continues but we need a pullback

Surf is large today in town, so the commentary is going to be short today.

What can I say, since the market gave us a confirmation day on May 4 we have gone straight up on the back of a wall of worry. The wall of worry is now starting to get worried that they are going to miss the upside move. Hello! You just did and now we need a pullback. Will we get it? I don't know. We might keep on climbing higher and higher on this negativity. But I am starting to see signs that individual charts need to take a breather.


I will be back later on after a surf session to look at some more individual longs.

Aloha.

Long swing trades for Thursday

Sorry for such a late post. The surf came up and kept me away.

Longs swing trades: CKCM PNRA TTN MSCC AMOV DIOD TAYC STX CLHB ENR TZIX TXCC WFR TARR SBAC AMX LTM VRSN EEFT WLSN TLWT PWAV DMC IMA

I have mentioned over half of these before. They continue to base, breakout, base, then breakout. That is how you want a stock to act.

Technology, medical, and retail are leaders in this rally and that is where my money is.

Aloha

Gosh I love blogs. I forgot something very important.

I forgot to mention, I expect a pullback here, because we have gone gone up a little too fast since May 4. Not a big dip just enough to get the bears growling again. The Nasdaq and SP600 are up over 5% since then and some of the move may appear obivous to the "dumb" money now.

Index continues advance in heavy trade.

The indexes were all up over 1% today, with the sp600 leading with a 2.12% gain, with a huge increase in volume. The big surge in volume is the confirmation the uptrend is valid. There is now no doubt that the rally we have been seeing is for real. The huge pickup in volume is the institutions putting more money to work on the long side, shorts covering positions, and institutions initiating new long positions. The old maxim "sell in May and go away" is probably going to be a contrarian this year. The follow thru in the Nasdaq on May 4 is now solidly proven with today's huge advance on stronger volume that was over the 50 day volume average.

In the chat rooms I monitor, I am getting selectively attacked by trapped bears. They continue to be bearish and think a top is now forming, even though a lot of sentiment indicators are at the same level they were in March 2003. This tells me this rally will have legs.

But I dont need chatters to tell me what the market is going to do that is why charts exist. And I am loaded to the gills with longs in medical, tech, and retail that are acting well and continue to offer me new buys.

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF. Dont fight the trend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We are in an uptrend and that is the right side of the market to be on, no matter how much you want a crash.

I will be back later with long picks. But if you just take the time to read my past 5 days of post you will find plenty of options to invest/trade there.

I want to thank everyone who reads this blog. I really appreciate your feedback even when it is negative.

Mahalo and Aloha

will be back later with stocks....

More stock charts I like

Here are some more charts that have great patterns: ELTK GNSS VRSN SO PWAV HCC WTW HXL JWN FD RGCI TRID SWY SFY

So if any traders out there tell you there is not anything to trade. Laugh at them.

Aloha

Keep on keepin on

The indexes continue their short term uptrend that they have been in since beg. of May and volume did pick up today. The bad news on the volume pick up is that it is still well below the 50 dva. So big funds still are not ready to jump into the market. However, charts are a plenty with good patterns. And while everyone complains and continues to be bearish, the Nasdaq is up almost 7% this month. Where have you been?

While the markets continue their short term uptrend, I continue to find nice charts that are breaking out or building excellent bases. How can I and about only 15 traders out of 2000 I monitor see this? It is amazing. If the bearishness was higher in the professional newsletter writers I would be slamming the table calling a bottom. However the pros are still bullish while the "herd" are very bearish. Do you know what that tells me on a ratio basis? That we have an upside bias that goes sideways for a while. Let's see if that is what we get.

Long swing trades: JMDT ASTM MCZ APH CNB STX LTBG TTN CPTV ELOS
Long swing trades I have mentioned before: CCRT LCAV WFMI HTCH LABS MUSE IDIX STTS

Remember you want to buy these as close to pivot point as possible (preferably within 5%, unless a gap then 10% is MAX allowed) for safety.

There are also tech stocks that I like the patterns on but are not ready yet : BRCM RATE THQI RGCI ARRS(missed this one on 4/28 cause mrkt. was weak.) VSEC

Aloha

Great move in the indexes on suspicious low volume.

The markets had a great move today but the volume was very low. That tells me that the big boys had very little to do with this move up. I would have like to see a move like today come on a nice pickup in trade. But that did not happen so we have to see if the big boys want to jump on this short term uptrend in the indexes. If they do that will be great, but if we get some decent down days on a pickup in volume I will get more cautious.

So instead I still remain bullish like I have been since 5/4/05 and continue to see strength in the Nasdaq. This weekend I gave a list of stocks that look like they are creating bases in the sector. Please, go back and read my weekend thoughts and check out my long list the past week. You can not argue with facts and facts say techs are going higher.

There is still a lot of bearishness out there with the "dumb" money (and sometimes it is beyond dumb) but after reading Helene Meisler's recent publication on www.realmoney.com I know that the Investment professional community is still bullish overall. So we will see how this rally unfolds.

Swing-long trades: COI TUG ABCO SPSS LIFC UNWR PACT
Swing-long trades I have mentioned before: MUSE NNI EEFT
Swing-long trades that need a pull back on low volume: VPHM

Aloha.

Weekend thoughts.....

I know I have been talking a lot about a rotation into tech, and have been sounding off pretty confident that the Nasdaq is going to outperform the Dow and SP. But I have more reasons to support my analysis.

I have looked at some scans and have noticed a lot of tech stocks building bases that show proper volume characteristics on up and down days. The stocks I mentioned on Thurs and Friday are not mentioned (so include those with these) in this list.

NTAP HTCH ISIL MRVL NTGR VSEA ATMI TTN TXN SEBL

I can not argue with the great price/volume action I am seeing in these stocks, but I do respect the fact that all indexes are trading below their 50 dmas so I remain cautious until a move of 1.7% comes on heavier volume than the day before and above the 50 dva on the indexes.

The markets are all in short term uptrends, intermediate term downtrends, and long term (2002 bottom) uptrends. The Nasdaq is in much better shape than the Dow and SP, and my gut and charts tell me that the negativity in the crowd on techs could prove to be very bullish.

But if the Nasdaq all of a sudden falls 2% on heavy trade and all my beautiful tech charts get busted, I will turn bearish on tech, of course.

I, btw, have not been bullish on the technology sector since 1999 and the early days of 2000 with all the bubble internet/software stocks. It has mostly been select sectors and small caps.

Which brings me to my next point. I am seeing a lot less high quality small cap stocks show up on my scans. I wonder if the steam has run out of this engine for now?

Be back on Monday. Unless I think of something else to talk about.

Fun week.

I still feel the same way I have all week. I believe the indexes are currently weak and that when this downward pressure is over tech will lead. Look at the Relative Strength line today on the Nasdaq compared to the SP. I also like how everytime we start to fall everyone calls a bear market, then next thing you know the dip is being bought. That has been the pattern for the past two weeks.

I do not have much else to add except all those nice charts I have been talking about in technology are just getting prettier and prettier. The longs in tech land have been killing the market. When the markets legs get moving, we are going to see an outperformance this time.

I continue to get plenty of beautiful charts on my swing-long scans. The ones that came up today are almost all tech. I can not argue with that. You can hate tech all you want but when they are moving up...YOU ARE WRONG. Not me.

NVDA DIOD PRGS TEAM MSCC STMP LMS SY EMC IDTI STTS RTSX and the one non-tech stock UHAL.

Argue all you want, my prettiest charts are all medical and tech.

Also my PRETTIEST chart that I first mentioned when I started creating this blog on April 1, 2005 (Go back and read what I posted) is now up almost 50% since my purchase on 3/24 at 3.00. Guess what kind of stock it is? A speculative technology stock SILCF. Its BalanceOfPower indicator has stayed max green the entire time since its breakout on the 23rd of March, everytime is has a good day up it comes on heavy volume, and down days happen with no volume. This is the way you want to see a stock act after a breakout. This is a speculative stock but I have to bring up the point how well these tech stocks have been acting the past two weeks to two months.
Of course if you buy the wrong stocks with poor chart patterns, you get what you deserve.

Aloha and have a great weekend.

The moving averages work again as resistance.

The market fell (not crashed/swooned/whatever) today on heavier turnover. Barely higher, however, as it was just a few mill shares.

Nothing changes in my assumptions. The market has proven resistance at the moving averages that I mentioned a couple days ago yet however as we hold the lows the bears grow. This helps keep me bullish short term.

I monitor a lot of chat rooms and KNOW that the ones that "chat" are around 75% bearish. This along with what I see on the TV, read in the paper, and hear from people continue to help me stay strong while the past two days have happened. I have had a good feel for the market all year long and no reason to change now.

Not only that, look at what medical stocks have done and tech charts are now starting to do. Swing-long trades: DGIN ABRX URBN MCX MUSE HSP POWI BBI FRGO

I have a lot of technology stocks popping up on my scans while the market falls, so I continue to believe tech is leading this next rally coming up.

Oh yeah. Time to admit a fault and admire a good....

ISSC. Bad trade. It reversed today. You cut your loss and move on.

INNO. I posted this chart as a long on April 20th and have been long since Jan 31st. I sold 1/4 today up 63%. Holding other 3/4 for further price appreciation according to chart.