I know a lot of people may not like to hear that but I want everyone to remember that I ONLY use charts to make ALL of my trading/investing decisions. I have not and will not be bullish on stocks until I see stocks bottom out and work on bases. Then and only then would I consider going long this market.
Instead, for right now, I will continue to stick with my short bias as the trend is very down and all I am doing is simply going with the downtrend. Now remember, just because I expect the downtrend to resume does not mean that it will. I am only setting myself up for more profits on the short side because, for one, they have already made me good money in a year that was dominated by massive losses in most portfolio. And two, they continue to be the only setups that are working in this market.
Recently, I went long a few stocks. At first everything was looking OK. But now as this market starts to plateau at this overbought condition near the 50 day moving averages, a few stock, once again, have set themselves up for future profits. How big are those profits going to be? Well here is a showing of my top holdings right now: top longs/(shorts): ANCI 71% QCOR 37% (TITN 45% CETV 70% SPG 22% CEO 38% SDA 67% GGB 59% RIMM 46% AAPL 37% ATHR 32% SBAC 40% AMX 42% CYT 50% POT 46% CEDC 43% MOS 55%).
As you can see a lot of the shorts have produced some nice short term gains. How did I make this money? Simple. I just followed the trend. Just go with the flow. Trust me, it will pay off.
I have been saying almost the exact same thing for the past few months now and I see no reason to change that. The trend is down, the money is being made in the shorts because being long is wrong, and until I see the market stabilize above the moving averages, strong accumulation enters the market, or new leaders show up I am definitely going to keep cash as my top priority. Not losing money here is as good as making money to me.
I wish everyone well, have a great day/night (depending on where you live), and we will do this all over again tomorrow. :)
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Sunday, October 05, 2008
Another Selloff Comes With Much Higher Volume On The Nasdaq; Futures Are Not Looking Good For Monday
October 5, 2008
Stocks got hit again on Friday with the DJIA and Nasdaq losing 1.5%. However, the damage was more evident in the Nasdaq due to the higher volume than the day before and a higher amount of stocks hitting new 52-week lows.
Some people are getting very bearish out there, and while they have very good reasons to be very bearish, it would be a horrible decision to decide to go short here. As silly it would be to decide you are going to go long right here. Right now, the market is clearly in a downtrend and that is the problem. It is CLEARLY in a downtrend. That means that it is now evident to everyone that stocks are falling so there is a higher probability of a bounce/relief rally coming sometime in the near future after prices fall a bit.
I am not a bull in this tape and if you watch the video you will see/hear the criteria that I must see in the overall indexes along with what I like the charts to look like. If we look at all the “big winners” from this last bull market, we can see that some breakdowns on long-term charts look like they are JUST BEGINNING. Therefore, I will continue to hold 1/2 my short positions in all the past leaders that have given me anywhere from 25% to 50% returns in just a month or two months. Folks if you get big gains that quickly on the short side in a bear market, you should not get greedy and try to hold out for the full 99.99% gain. Instead you need to take gains along the way because in EVERY BEAR MARKET there are a LOT of short-covering rallies that will cause major pain for those that chased stocks lower and decided to raid the cookie jar after everyone has already taken all the cookies.
If you are a subscriber you have seen me now operate the long side of the market and now the short side of the market. It should be clear that, by now, hopefully, I know what I am talking about. I only do this to make you a better trader and I will always stress that THE MOST IMPORTANT of all decisions to make about investing comes to cutting losses. I do not care what Cramer tells everyone on TV, the facts PROVE THAT YOU SHOULD NEVER AVERAGE DOWN as the best stocks year in and year out have proven that they don’t come from major downtrends. Instead they come from previous uptrends and then a sound base. After a proper base and the market conditions are correct those stocks go up anywhere from 100% to 90,000% like CSCO from 1990 to 2000. You simply can not make huge gains on the long side and huge gains on the short side (or be long a LOT OF CASH!! like I have been saying almost EVERY DAY for the past two months BEFORE THE BREAKDOWN AND AFTER TELLING YOU THE MARKET TOPPED IN OCTOBER/NOVEMBER) using Cramer’s methodology. That is why his Action Alert column is down 27% this year, while the worst account I run is down 7%. I cut my losses and go to 100% cash in bear markets in family/friends account.
However, for my account, as via witnessed by my subscribers, I am up almost 20% this year in my main account. This is because I have been long a few stocks that turned out to be big winners from beautiful charts. Along with being long those couple of stocks this year, the biggest portion of the 18% gain came last week when most people were losing almost 20% in one week. My account went from up 10% to up 18%. That came with me 80% to 90% cash. How did that happen then? I am short (I have covered around half of everything. The rest I am riding lower) POT MOS AAPL CETV RIMM along with others in that 20% of working capital.
So, once again, I have proven that a form of CANSLIM in bull markets (view my Past Big Winners Longs FOR FREE at my .com site) and reversed for bear markets (as subscribers have seen the past 11 months) is much healthier for YOUR account than watching Cramer on TV. Sometimes I wonder who is that person really who is calling in to his show for “stock market information.” I mean his AA portfolio is down 27% this year. So why are so many people buying stocks on the way down? I guess I will never know. I just hope a couple of people reading this who have lost a lot of money this year think about what they could do differently and maybe they will realize that buying stocks on the way down or shorting stocks on the way up is NOT the way to invest in the stock market. That method might work in the MOST BULLEST of bull markets but in a market like THIS NOW, there is no way you can buy stocks on the way down and expect to make money.
Instead try to learn CANSLIM and hopefully the FACTS will convince you to go long stocks only in a bull market and go short stocks that are setting up and breaking down after a big run-up (any stock with over a 100% gain in the previous bull market; I prefer stocks up 1000% or more from the low to the high) in a bear market. CANSLIM investors that understand this methodology were either in cash, short, or they were short and in cash. I held more cash this time than I did at the start of the last bear market but if this is going to last a while there will be many false rallies that lead to good short setups. However, keep in mind now that we are already 11 months into a bear market it could be dangerous to go short a lot of stock here. So don’t look for stocks already down 50% plus. I have gone short those and taken 1/2 my gains in them. Look for the stocks that are just now starting to crack. But first, remember, make sure it is up at least 100% from the start of the bull market in October 2002 to the end in October 2007.
There is not much else to say except that I should have been 100% short but seriously that would be way too risky. I am content staying 70% to 90% cash while the market is in a downtrend. When this bear market is over and the market is ready to move higher again, you can be sure that I will be ready to go long every stock that looks like LPHI (with max green BOP still).
LPHI is not a buy right now as it is setting up in a base. But a high volume breakout with BOP going back to max green BOP sure would make it a good possible long in this bear market. Its industry group is #1 out of 197 industry groups based on six month price performance. So there are a lot of great things going for it. However, you can be patient and wait for the market to be moving higher before going long.
Why? Because there will be 10-30 stocks that look like LPHI but they will have max green BOP the whole way down, they will have more average daily volume, and they will be of higher quality stocks. If you don’t know what a high quality stock is then you must start learning CANSLIM. The first step you could take to make a big difference in your trading is to NEVER buy a stock trading UNDER $10, even with the market in an uptrend with the market’s price above the 50 day moving average with the 50 day moving average over the 200 day moving average. You get what you pay for in the stock market. Rather you want to believe that or not it is the truth. Another thing to NEVER buy is a stock that went from $10 to $100 and went back to $10. NEVER BUY A STOCK THAT ROUNDTRIPS. EVER!
OK, I have done my duty to help those that have lost a lot of money the past week. There is nothing else I can say. Make sure to watch the YouTube videos if you have time (the 10/03 YouTube will be up before the opening bell). This will help you visualize what I am talking about much better. ALOOOOHA!!!!
Market Wrap Video is now available on the forums for Gold and Platinum Subscribers.
Stocks got hit again on Friday with the DJIA and Nasdaq losing 1.5%. However, the damage was more evident in the Nasdaq due to the higher volume than the day before and a higher amount of stocks hitting new 52-week lows.
Some people are getting very bearish out there, and while they have very good reasons to be very bearish, it would be a horrible decision to decide to go short here. As silly it would be to decide you are going to go long right here. Right now, the market is clearly in a downtrend and that is the problem. It is CLEARLY in a downtrend. That means that it is now evident to everyone that stocks are falling so there is a higher probability of a bounce/relief rally coming sometime in the near future after prices fall a bit.
I am not a bull in this tape and if you watch the video you will see/hear the criteria that I must see in the overall indexes along with what I like the charts to look like. If we look at all the “big winners” from this last bull market, we can see that some breakdowns on long-term charts look like they are JUST BEGINNING. Therefore, I will continue to hold 1/2 my short positions in all the past leaders that have given me anywhere from 25% to 50% returns in just a month or two months. Folks if you get big gains that quickly on the short side in a bear market, you should not get greedy and try to hold out for the full 99.99% gain. Instead you need to take gains along the way because in EVERY BEAR MARKET there are a LOT of short-covering rallies that will cause major pain for those that chased stocks lower and decided to raid the cookie jar after everyone has already taken all the cookies.
If you are a subscriber you have seen me now operate the long side of the market and now the short side of the market. It should be clear that, by now, hopefully, I know what I am talking about. I only do this to make you a better trader and I will always stress that THE MOST IMPORTANT of all decisions to make about investing comes to cutting losses. I do not care what Cramer tells everyone on TV, the facts PROVE THAT YOU SHOULD NEVER AVERAGE DOWN as the best stocks year in and year out have proven that they don’t come from major downtrends. Instead they come from previous uptrends and then a sound base. After a proper base and the market conditions are correct those stocks go up anywhere from 100% to 90,000% like CSCO from 1990 to 2000. You simply can not make huge gains on the long side and huge gains on the short side (or be long a LOT OF CASH!! like I have been saying almost EVERY DAY for the past two months BEFORE THE BREAKDOWN AND AFTER TELLING YOU THE MARKET TOPPED IN OCTOBER/NOVEMBER) using Cramer’s methodology. That is why his Action Alert column is down 27% this year, while the worst account I run is down 7%. I cut my losses and go to 100% cash in bear markets in family/friends account.
However, for my account, as via witnessed by my subscribers, I am up almost 20% this year in my main account. This is because I have been long a few stocks that turned out to be big winners from beautiful charts. Along with being long those couple of stocks this year, the biggest portion of the 18% gain came last week when most people were losing almost 20% in one week. My account went from up 10% to up 18%. That came with me 80% to 90% cash. How did that happen then? I am short (I have covered around half of everything. The rest I am riding lower) POT MOS AAPL CETV RIMM along with others in that 20% of working capital.
So, once again, I have proven that a form of CANSLIM in bull markets (view my Past Big Winners Longs FOR FREE at my .com site) and reversed for bear markets (as subscribers have seen the past 11 months) is much healthier for YOUR account than watching Cramer on TV. Sometimes I wonder who is that person really who is calling in to his show for “stock market information.” I mean his AA portfolio is down 27% this year. So why are so many people buying stocks on the way down? I guess I will never know. I just hope a couple of people reading this who have lost a lot of money this year think about what they could do differently and maybe they will realize that buying stocks on the way down or shorting stocks on the way up is NOT the way to invest in the stock market. That method might work in the MOST BULLEST of bull markets but in a market like THIS NOW, there is no way you can buy stocks on the way down and expect to make money.
Instead try to learn CANSLIM and hopefully the FACTS will convince you to go long stocks only in a bull market and go short stocks that are setting up and breaking down after a big run-up (any stock with over a 100% gain in the previous bull market; I prefer stocks up 1000% or more from the low to the high) in a bear market. CANSLIM investors that understand this methodology were either in cash, short, or they were short and in cash. I held more cash this time than I did at the start of the last bear market but if this is going to last a while there will be many false rallies that lead to good short setups. However, keep in mind now that we are already 11 months into a bear market it could be dangerous to go short a lot of stock here. So don’t look for stocks already down 50% plus. I have gone short those and taken 1/2 my gains in them. Look for the stocks that are just now starting to crack. But first, remember, make sure it is up at least 100% from the start of the bull market in October 2002 to the end in October 2007.
There is not much else to say except that I should have been 100% short but seriously that would be way too risky. I am content staying 70% to 90% cash while the market is in a downtrend. When this bear market is over and the market is ready to move higher again, you can be sure that I will be ready to go long every stock that looks like LPHI (with max green BOP still).
LPHI is not a buy right now as it is setting up in a base. But a high volume breakout with BOP going back to max green BOP sure would make it a good possible long in this bear market. Its industry group is #1 out of 197 industry groups based on six month price performance. So there are a lot of great things going for it. However, you can be patient and wait for the market to be moving higher before going long.
Why? Because there will be 10-30 stocks that look like LPHI but they will have max green BOP the whole way down, they will have more average daily volume, and they will be of higher quality stocks. If you don’t know what a high quality stock is then you must start learning CANSLIM. The first step you could take to make a big difference in your trading is to NEVER buy a stock trading UNDER $10, even with the market in an uptrend with the market’s price above the 50 day moving average with the 50 day moving average over the 200 day moving average. You get what you pay for in the stock market. Rather you want to believe that or not it is the truth. Another thing to NEVER buy is a stock that went from $10 to $100 and went back to $10. NEVER BUY A STOCK THAT ROUNDTRIPS. EVER!
OK, I have done my duty to help those that have lost a lot of money the past week. There is nothing else I can say. Make sure to watch the YouTube videos if you have time (the 10/03 YouTube will be up before the opening bell). This will help you visualize what I am talking about much better. ALOOOOHA!!!!
Market Wrap Video is now available on the forums for Gold and Platinum Subscribers.
Saturday, October 04, 2008
After Surviving A Maui Wedding I Have To Watch This Crap; Stocks Selloff As Volume Picks Up As "Rescue" Package Passes The Senate
Congratulations to everyone who went short POT and MOS with me. We now have gains of 43% and 51% respectively. It is time to take some profits, obviously. However, our holding period was not even one month and those kind of gains compounded and annualized our the kind of returns that you can get at BWT. Just wait till the next bull market starts. If you think my money will be in a mattress and my head will be in the sand, you are greatly mistaken.
By the way I want to remind everyone of all the hate remarks I received in March when I told you the banks had not bottomed. I was attacked pretty hard on the comments. Those same people must feel pretty foolish now. That is if they have any integrity. But for those short any of the 22 stocks I have taken short since June you now have around 25%-50% gains in a market where many people are down 20% plus. For those of you still not a subscriber to my site, what in the heck our you waiting for! For me to rise prices? How can I constantly be this right and have these kind of returns and justify the prices I charge!!! I am short AAPL, RIMM, POT, MOS and in under one month the lowest one is up 37%. Not to mention I told my subscibers to sell their mutual funds in NOVEMBER 2007 AT THE TOP!!! I have preached cash for newbies since then and when we finally stopped flopping around I issued shorts in many stocks now down a ton.
Why keep losing money at the sites that you subscribe to. Step up before I raise prices. Because come next bull market when I pick the next 100%, 300%, 500%, 1000%, and some 2000% winners I dont want a TON of people following me into my trades. I only want the most dedicated believers into this system. So stop losing money and telling me in emails about your horror stories, if you are not a subscriber. There is NOT ONE Platinum or Gold member that was long this year besides the few months we did have a chance to exploit the market and I made HUGE gains in stocks like PDO and DGLY. Besides that, for free, in this commentary I have preached cash and in the past month finally started to exploit shorts as they rolled over. Now the money that I have on the line has made me VERY HAPPY and produced wonderful returns. Not only that, the worst account I have, was given to me on November 02, 2007 and is ONLY down 7% compared to the 30% drop in the market. So when we do lose money here, we NEVER lose a lot. This is why you must always cut losses. This market sucks and I have said plenty that everyone that reads this should have been in cash. Tonight I will just promote my services.
Realmoney.com ran a 24 hour special for $99 for a year. Why do you think that was? You get what you pay for in life. You want to make the big money when this market turns around then you will be a BWT subscriber. If you do not want to make a lot of money then you will waste your time reading "free" market commentary. Enjoy the mediocre results and to all of those who were mean to me when they "swore the banks bottomed in March," you get what you deserve.
I say NO to a bailout. Let these companies fall on their own and let the greedy lenders and people that took out these loans pay for THEIR mistakes. I am sick of making wise financial decisions and NEVER being rewarded. Yet I see people F up all around me and get bailed out. I am sick of it, as a tax payer.
Gold and Platinum subscribers get full size version and part 2 and/or part 3.
By the way I want to remind everyone of all the hate remarks I received in March when I told you the banks had not bottomed. I was attacked pretty hard on the comments. Those same people must feel pretty foolish now. That is if they have any integrity. But for those short any of the 22 stocks I have taken short since June you now have around 25%-50% gains in a market where many people are down 20% plus. For those of you still not a subscriber to my site, what in the heck our you waiting for! For me to rise prices? How can I constantly be this right and have these kind of returns and justify the prices I charge!!! I am short AAPL, RIMM, POT, MOS and in under one month the lowest one is up 37%. Not to mention I told my subscibers to sell their mutual funds in NOVEMBER 2007 AT THE TOP!!! I have preached cash for newbies since then and when we finally stopped flopping around I issued shorts in many stocks now down a ton.
Why keep losing money at the sites that you subscribe to. Step up before I raise prices. Because come next bull market when I pick the next 100%, 300%, 500%, 1000%, and some 2000% winners I dont want a TON of people following me into my trades. I only want the most dedicated believers into this system. So stop losing money and telling me in emails about your horror stories, if you are not a subscriber. There is NOT ONE Platinum or Gold member that was long this year besides the few months we did have a chance to exploit the market and I made HUGE gains in stocks like PDO and DGLY. Besides that, for free, in this commentary I have preached cash and in the past month finally started to exploit shorts as they rolled over. Now the money that I have on the line has made me VERY HAPPY and produced wonderful returns. Not only that, the worst account I have, was given to me on November 02, 2007 and is ONLY down 7% compared to the 30% drop in the market. So when we do lose money here, we NEVER lose a lot. This is why you must always cut losses. This market sucks and I have said plenty that everyone that reads this should have been in cash. Tonight I will just promote my services.
Realmoney.com ran a 24 hour special for $99 for a year. Why do you think that was? You get what you pay for in life. You want to make the big money when this market turns around then you will be a BWT subscriber. If you do not want to make a lot of money then you will waste your time reading "free" market commentary. Enjoy the mediocre results and to all of those who were mean to me when they "swore the banks bottomed in March," you get what you deserve.
I say NO to a bailout. Let these companies fall on their own and let the greedy lenders and people that took out these loans pay for THEIR mistakes. I am sick of making wise financial decisions and NEVER being rewarded. Yet I see people F up all around me and get bailed out. I am sick of it, as a tax payer.
Gold and Platinum subscribers get full size version and part 2 and/or part 3.
Nice Bounce But Too Bad It Was On Lower Volume; Bulls Show No Conviction In Buying As Volume Comes In Lower Across The Board
We are living in the middle of a breakdown of the markets due to corrupt lending practices with greedy executives and uninformed people getting involved in business they never should have. This is never good for stocks and I don't care what anyone says. Shooting down that bill was the right idea. Let wall street battle it out. They screwed up and the tax payers should not be bailed out. At the same time capping CEO pay at $500,000 for running a bank is psychotic and shows NOTHING of a FREE market system.
However, I must admit the system is/was broken. When I left NYC in 2000 I knew there was more than what the .com bubble had. But I had no clue that it would ever get like this in real estate. I used to date a real estate broker in Maui and I used to tell her that this was going to end up destroying the economy one day. I kept saying it and when Ken Heebner got out of housing stocks and the biggest real estate investor sold all of his holdings in 2006, I KNEW it was over. The calamities to come however. No one could have known. Until this year that is. That is when it became apparent (well it was before that for those "in the know") that loans were given to people who had NO BUSINESS EVER receiving the financing they did. This was all done on a "bet" that "housing would continue to rise." How asinine is that??? Unbelievable greed at its finest. This is what is sick about my favorite, and the only form of rule that can make poor people wealthy, form of government. Capitalism.
The fact is we are headed down a road of socialism and I don't know what that will do with all my stocks. But all I am praying for is that the companies that were stupid and greedy enough to do these things will just have to take the beatings. I know it sucks but giving a $500,000 loan to someone without checking on their income...you get what you deserve.
I want the market to solve this and the government to stay the F out. I don't want them to touch this market and I want the strong to survive this wreck and the weak to leave. If we elect the Socialist Obama (which is looking more likelier) it is doubtful that we will be moving "forward" any time soon.
For now I continue to preach cash unless you were smart and went short with me when I went short. No one says when I go short 300 shares that you do too. You guys realize that commissions are $1 per 100 shares nowadays. You can go long 3 shares of AAPL short and enjoy the gains with me. The fact is that the money was laying on the floor this morning and in a lot of my shorts up over 25% in under a month I did take around 1/2 the money off the table in profits. I am now around 90% cash and will continue to monitor the market. However, I don't expect the market to rally higher.
In fact, I believe the market is just starting a long selloff and believe that the market has a long PROLONGED period of underperformance. However, I am a great stock picker and stocks like NCIT and LPHI, when you look at the fundamentals, you have to know in the future, when the market is ready to trend up, stocks "like those" (I AM NOT SAYING THOSE TWO ARE FOR SURE, Obviously) will do well. We will have a better market to choose from and some of these HORRIBLE mutual, hedge, pension, lending funds deserve and need to go out of business to have the honest and respectable investors take over a market hobbled by a bunch of regulatory BS.
Also the ban on short selling is the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen and I believe it is a sham and a scam to the American people once again. Any time you blame the short sellers, you send off a HUGE RED FLAG TO ME that their is real problems. So the fact that they think it is necessary to halt the short sells of like 900 stocks is a sign of massive problems and unlike 1987 I don't think our plunge on Monday was the last one. I believe, by looking and reading my charts (you know, crazy voodoo tactics), that there is a lot more pain in store. The leaders just cracked apart. They have a LONG way to fall. I know so many buying them at the top. That is GREED my friends. Greed destroys capitalism. Everyone gets what they deserve. If you buy AAPL at 170 and you don't cut your loss then you deserve to feed my family as it falls to $20 and I am short. Dumb money moves to the smart. It always has and it always will.
However, for the first time in a long time I am starting to believe a lot of the stuff Ron Paul has to say is starting to make a lot of damn sense. You know the Congress is MESSED UP when you hear that from me. I think the Fed should not DARE inject more liquidity and if it takes 11 years to return to the 2000 Nasdaq highs then so be it. During that time, I will find hidden gems that will do better with less market greedy psychotics trading my stocks. From 1996-the top in 2000 it was easy. It was easy in 2003 and basically 2004. Since then making money has been hard. But this is the hardest environment I have EVER seen. Way harder than 2000-2002. Why? It is hard to short because perfect short setups are not forming like they did in 2000 and obviously beautiful charts like that from 1999 and 2003 will not be showing up till at least 2009 if not 2010. Reality must be looked at here. Those that LOVE THE STOCK MARKET, like me, will still be around. Will you. I hope so.
I hope everyone feels a little better that the market did not fall apart today. I am glad some people used rational behavior and made a market for stocks today. Things are very bad (in fact darn right horrible) and I do expect a recession. However recessions set us up for new and exciting companies. The only thing that can destroy this country is spending too much via Congress (so far they are bringing us closer to our deaths) and complete greed/corruption ruining great markets in the greatest country that creates some of the greatest inventions the world has ever seen. The railroads, the airplane, landing on the moon, the TV, and the computer. You know that the spending on baby boomers will rise as they get older. Healthcare, Medical, and Biotech stocks should do OK during this rough market and if we can get the averages above the 50 and 200 day moving average with the 50 leading the 200 I am sure we will see other great longs. Just like ANCI was. I am still long this stock and enjoy a nice 91% gain in three months despite the worst market we have seen since 1987.
I can not wait till my max green charts loaded with strong accumulation with a huge surge of volume on the breakout come back. Everyone told me after 2000 that I would never see the charts I saw with my own eyes and that I have posted in my PAST BIG WINNERS section for longs ever again. 2003 proved them wrong and the future will prove those that think they will not show up again wrong. Never short America. We have had other bouts with socialism and many great stocks still appeared during those times. Don't worry I will find your needles in the haystack. Charts like LMLP in 1999 and EPIC/HIL in 2003 will setup again. Trust me. History always repeats itself. At Big Wave Trading, with me, Market Speculator, and Author Ego you will always be long uptrends and in cash or short downtrends. There will never be an unexpected crash that kills and wipes out our gains. I know how to read the market, I know how to actively invest in the market, and I LOVE DOING IT. I started doing this at 16. The goal is to make at least 96 to make it 80 years of trading. I'll be here the whole way.
Aloha and remember better times to go long WILL come again. For those that were trapped and lost a lot of money, try a subscription to the BWT site for a month. What do you go to lose. A cost of my subsciption was probably lost by more than 1,000,000 active traders. A full year sub was probably lost 10x over by a lot of people yesterday. Be wise with your money and even wiser with your money in the market. Aloha and I will see you tomorrow around 7AM HST.
By the way, for those that care, I saw the biggest turtle in my life today snorkeling after surfing. Pretty crazy after 8+ years here and many snorkeling trips that I finally saw a turtle as big as me. My friends it was huge. I wonder how old he was? Surfing and snorkeling. Sure beats this market. Unless you are 400% short.
Gold and Platinum subscribers get full screen version and part two and part three if needed
However, I must admit the system is/was broken. When I left NYC in 2000 I knew there was more than what the .com bubble had. But I had no clue that it would ever get like this in real estate. I used to date a real estate broker in Maui and I used to tell her that this was going to end up destroying the economy one day. I kept saying it and when Ken Heebner got out of housing stocks and the biggest real estate investor sold all of his holdings in 2006, I KNEW it was over. The calamities to come however. No one could have known. Until this year that is. That is when it became apparent (well it was before that for those "in the know") that loans were given to people who had NO BUSINESS EVER receiving the financing they did. This was all done on a "bet" that "housing would continue to rise." How asinine is that??? Unbelievable greed at its finest. This is what is sick about my favorite, and the only form of rule that can make poor people wealthy, form of government. Capitalism.
The fact is we are headed down a road of socialism and I don't know what that will do with all my stocks. But all I am praying for is that the companies that were stupid and greedy enough to do these things will just have to take the beatings. I know it sucks but giving a $500,000 loan to someone without checking on their income...you get what you deserve.
I want the market to solve this and the government to stay the F out. I don't want them to touch this market and I want the strong to survive this wreck and the weak to leave. If we elect the Socialist Obama (which is looking more likelier) it is doubtful that we will be moving "forward" any time soon.
For now I continue to preach cash unless you were smart and went short with me when I went short. No one says when I go short 300 shares that you do too. You guys realize that commissions are $1 per 100 shares nowadays. You can go long 3 shares of AAPL short and enjoy the gains with me. The fact is that the money was laying on the floor this morning and in a lot of my shorts up over 25% in under a month I did take around 1/2 the money off the table in profits. I am now around 90% cash and will continue to monitor the market. However, I don't expect the market to rally higher.
In fact, I believe the market is just starting a long selloff and believe that the market has a long PROLONGED period of underperformance. However, I am a great stock picker and stocks like NCIT and LPHI, when you look at the fundamentals, you have to know in the future, when the market is ready to trend up, stocks "like those" (I AM NOT SAYING THOSE TWO ARE FOR SURE, Obviously) will do well. We will have a better market to choose from and some of these HORRIBLE mutual, hedge, pension, lending funds deserve and need to go out of business to have the honest and respectable investors take over a market hobbled by a bunch of regulatory BS.
Also the ban on short selling is the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen and I believe it is a sham and a scam to the American people once again. Any time you blame the short sellers, you send off a HUGE RED FLAG TO ME that their is real problems. So the fact that they think it is necessary to halt the short sells of like 900 stocks is a sign of massive problems and unlike 1987 I don't think our plunge on Monday was the last one. I believe, by looking and reading my charts (you know, crazy voodoo tactics), that there is a lot more pain in store. The leaders just cracked apart. They have a LONG way to fall. I know so many buying them at the top. That is GREED my friends. Greed destroys capitalism. Everyone gets what they deserve. If you buy AAPL at 170 and you don't cut your loss then you deserve to feed my family as it falls to $20 and I am short. Dumb money moves to the smart. It always has and it always will.
However, for the first time in a long time I am starting to believe a lot of the stuff Ron Paul has to say is starting to make a lot of damn sense. You know the Congress is MESSED UP when you hear that from me. I think the Fed should not DARE inject more liquidity and if it takes 11 years to return to the 2000 Nasdaq highs then so be it. During that time, I will find hidden gems that will do better with less market greedy psychotics trading my stocks. From 1996-the top in 2000 it was easy. It was easy in 2003 and basically 2004. Since then making money has been hard. But this is the hardest environment I have EVER seen. Way harder than 2000-2002. Why? It is hard to short because perfect short setups are not forming like they did in 2000 and obviously beautiful charts like that from 1999 and 2003 will not be showing up till at least 2009 if not 2010. Reality must be looked at here. Those that LOVE THE STOCK MARKET, like me, will still be around. Will you. I hope so.
I hope everyone feels a little better that the market did not fall apart today. I am glad some people used rational behavior and made a market for stocks today. Things are very bad (in fact darn right horrible) and I do expect a recession. However recessions set us up for new and exciting companies. The only thing that can destroy this country is spending too much via Congress (so far they are bringing us closer to our deaths) and complete greed/corruption ruining great markets in the greatest country that creates some of the greatest inventions the world has ever seen. The railroads, the airplane, landing on the moon, the TV, and the computer. You know that the spending on baby boomers will rise as they get older. Healthcare, Medical, and Biotech stocks should do OK during this rough market and if we can get the averages above the 50 and 200 day moving average with the 50 leading the 200 I am sure we will see other great longs. Just like ANCI was. I am still long this stock and enjoy a nice 91% gain in three months despite the worst market we have seen since 1987.
I can not wait till my max green charts loaded with strong accumulation with a huge surge of volume on the breakout come back. Everyone told me after 2000 that I would never see the charts I saw with my own eyes and that I have posted in my PAST BIG WINNERS section for longs ever again. 2003 proved them wrong and the future will prove those that think they will not show up again wrong. Never short America. We have had other bouts with socialism and many great stocks still appeared during those times. Don't worry I will find your needles in the haystack. Charts like LMLP in 1999 and EPIC/HIL in 2003 will setup again. Trust me. History always repeats itself. At Big Wave Trading, with me, Market Speculator, and Author Ego you will always be long uptrends and in cash or short downtrends. There will never be an unexpected crash that kills and wipes out our gains. I know how to read the market, I know how to actively invest in the market, and I LOVE DOING IT. I started doing this at 16. The goal is to make at least 96 to make it 80 years of trading. I'll be here the whole way.
Aloha and remember better times to go long WILL come again. For those that were trapped and lost a lot of money, try a subscription to the BWT site for a month. What do you go to lose. A cost of my subsciption was probably lost by more than 1,000,000 active traders. A full year sub was probably lost 10x over by a lot of people yesterday. Be wise with your money and even wiser with your money in the market. Aloha and I will see you tomorrow around 7AM HST.
By the way, for those that care, I saw the biggest turtle in my life today snorkeling after surfing. Pretty crazy after 8+ years here and many snorkeling trips that I finally saw a turtle as big as me. My friends it was huge. I wonder how old he was? Surfing and snorkeling. Sure beats this market. Unless you are 400% short.
Gold and Platinum subscribers get full screen version and part two and part three if needed
Monday, September 22, 2008
Here Is The Video From Today's Market up
FULL SIZE IS AVAILABLE TO GOLD AND PLATINUM MEMBERS:
FULL SIZE IS AVAILABLE TO GOLD AND PLATINUM MEMBERS
FULL SIZE IS AVAILABLE TO GOLD AND PLATINUM MEMBERS
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Wild Day Of Trading Leaves Indexes Mixed With Little To Show For It Up Or Down
September 13, 2008
Well, well. It certainly was an interesting day on Friday as more horrible drubbings hit WM, AIG, and LEH. Add that to FNM, BSC, FRE, and the previous insurance stocks and you can see how a lot of people have probably had their you know what handed to them. If they were on margin at any point trying to “find” the bottom, it is probably a lot worse.
But as everyone that has been reading this blog has known, you NEVER hold stocks that are trending below the 50 day moving average with the 200 day moving average trending above the 50 day moving average. These stocks are not only ugly and laggards but they are clear GET OUT signals. Anytime you are in a stock in an uptrend and they roll over and a “death cross” happens while the stock is moving lower, it is time to get out–NO QUESTIONS ASKED. You normally find out much later the real cause. Those that would have done that with FRE and FNM would have been out around $60 and $40 respectively. Notice we were not buying those laggards here.
Remember all the mean people that told me to load up on the banks back in March. Well, I wonder if any of them are still alive or if they committed suicide recommending me to buy JPM or LEH. Granted it hasn’t been a horrible ride for JPM, YET. But LEH proves that bottom fishing is still a stupid game practiced by those that do not know how to really make money in the stock market. Anyone with a brain knows that YOU NEVER BUY A STOCK trending below the 30 week moving average and you NEVER SHORT a stock trending over the 30 week moving average. If my past big winners in 1999, 2003-2007 did not prove to you that buying stocks while the indexes are in uptrends and to avoid stocks by going into cash when they enter downtrends like they did on October 31, 2007, nothing will ever prove it to you.
Maybe these facts will hit you with some realizations. Comparing 2003 to 2008 lets look at how many stocks have made big gains to now compared to the same time in 2003. In 2003 there were 13 stocks up 1000% by now; this year there is 0. In 2003 there were 92 stocks up 750% by now; this year 0. In 2003 there were 180 stocks up 500%; this year there is 4. In 2003 there were 412 stocks up 200%; this year there is ONLY 12. And the biggest proof we are in a TOTALLY different market is that in 2003 there were 949 stocks (by the way, that still exist on the exchanges after 4 years) up 100% compared to ONLY 50 this year!!! If that doesn’t prove to you the trend of the market is important-NOTHING WILL.
One more burden of proof is that in 2003, the FTD came on volume that was huge and took the price over the 50 and 200 DMA on the Nasdaq. The entire uptrend had the price above the 50 DMA with the 50 DMA above the 200 DMA the WHOLE WAY in 2003 going into its short-term top in 2004. By contrast, in 2008, our indexes have been in severe downtrends with price below the 50 DMA with the 50 DMA below the 200 DMA the entire way.
If this still does not prove that is important to you let’s take a look at China. The whole way in 2006-October 2007 (when China topped too), the indexes price stayed above the 50 DMA with the 50 DMA above the 200 DMA. The few times the 50 DMA did not hold the 200 DMA was there to support the index (but it didn’t need to be as the index immediately ALWAYS took back the 50 DMA). And this year as China is down 65% from the top in October you can see price has been below the 50 DMA with the 50 DMA below the 200 DMA the entire way down.
I am not sure when people will learn to only invest with the trend when it is up and to stay out of stocks when they are moving lower. But I feel it is my calling to try to help all of you from having a -20% portfolio like Cramer has this year. My worst port is down 7% and that is my girlfriends portfolio that was given to me IN OCTOBER (at the TOP!)!! So compare my 7% loss in her account and my overall 10% gain this year (which by my standards is HORRIBLE but compared to Cramer is FANTASTIC) to so many out there that bought FNM, FRE, LEH, BSC, AIG, WM, and stocks like RDN and MBI the whole way down. I think you know who is doing better. That is why my subscribers are killing the crew at realmoney.com which is made up of a lot of horrible “Wall Street bag men.”
Nobody and I mean nobody who subscribes to me is down 20%, if they are using my techniques EXACTLY like I tell them to. So to all of you who do not go with the trend, God bless you. You are going to need the big man upstairs. If you still don’t understand why the trend is so important, you might want to pick up books written by Livermore, Loeb, O’Neil, Weinstein, or Darvas. They will change your life.
I will add more to this on Sunday. But for now ALOOOOOOOOHA!!!! Enjoy the market wrap up video. I know it is hard to see but subscribers get crystal clear Camtasia studio versions. So give us a try, you will NOT be disappointed.
Friday’s Market Wrap:
Gold and Platinum Subscribers Get Full Screen View and Part Two (longs in my scans) and Part Three (shorts in my scans)
Well, well. It certainly was an interesting day on Friday as more horrible drubbings hit WM, AIG, and LEH. Add that to FNM, BSC, FRE, and the previous insurance stocks and you can see how a lot of people have probably had their you know what handed to them. If they were on margin at any point trying to “find” the bottom, it is probably a lot worse.
But as everyone that has been reading this blog has known, you NEVER hold stocks that are trending below the 50 day moving average with the 200 day moving average trending above the 50 day moving average. These stocks are not only ugly and laggards but they are clear GET OUT signals. Anytime you are in a stock in an uptrend and they roll over and a “death cross” happens while the stock is moving lower, it is time to get out–NO QUESTIONS ASKED. You normally find out much later the real cause. Those that would have done that with FRE and FNM would have been out around $60 and $40 respectively. Notice we were not buying those laggards here.
Remember all the mean people that told me to load up on the banks back in March. Well, I wonder if any of them are still alive or if they committed suicide recommending me to buy JPM or LEH. Granted it hasn’t been a horrible ride for JPM, YET. But LEH proves that bottom fishing is still a stupid game practiced by those that do not know how to really make money in the stock market. Anyone with a brain knows that YOU NEVER BUY A STOCK trending below the 30 week moving average and you NEVER SHORT a stock trending over the 30 week moving average. If my past big winners in 1999, 2003-2007 did not prove to you that buying stocks while the indexes are in uptrends and to avoid stocks by going into cash when they enter downtrends like they did on October 31, 2007, nothing will ever prove it to you.
Maybe these facts will hit you with some realizations. Comparing 2003 to 2008 lets look at how many stocks have made big gains to now compared to the same time in 2003. In 2003 there were 13 stocks up 1000% by now; this year there is 0. In 2003 there were 92 stocks up 750% by now; this year 0. In 2003 there were 180 stocks up 500%; this year there is 4. In 2003 there were 412 stocks up 200%; this year there is ONLY 12. And the biggest proof we are in a TOTALLY different market is that in 2003 there were 949 stocks (by the way, that still exist on the exchanges after 4 years) up 100% compared to ONLY 50 this year!!! If that doesn’t prove to you the trend of the market is important-NOTHING WILL.
One more burden of proof is that in 2003, the FTD came on volume that was huge and took the price over the 50 and 200 DMA on the Nasdaq. The entire uptrend had the price above the 50 DMA with the 50 DMA above the 200 DMA the WHOLE WAY in 2003 going into its short-term top in 2004. By contrast, in 2008, our indexes have been in severe downtrends with price below the 50 DMA with the 50 DMA below the 200 DMA the entire way.
If this still does not prove that is important to you let’s take a look at China. The whole way in 2006-October 2007 (when China topped too), the indexes price stayed above the 50 DMA with the 50 DMA above the 200 DMA. The few times the 50 DMA did not hold the 200 DMA was there to support the index (but it didn’t need to be as the index immediately ALWAYS took back the 50 DMA). And this year as China is down 65% from the top in October you can see price has been below the 50 DMA with the 50 DMA below the 200 DMA the entire way down.
I am not sure when people will learn to only invest with the trend when it is up and to stay out of stocks when they are moving lower. But I feel it is my calling to try to help all of you from having a -20% portfolio like Cramer has this year. My worst port is down 7% and that is my girlfriends portfolio that was given to me IN OCTOBER (at the TOP!)!! So compare my 7% loss in her account and my overall 10% gain this year (which by my standards is HORRIBLE but compared to Cramer is FANTASTIC) to so many out there that bought FNM, FRE, LEH, BSC, AIG, WM, and stocks like RDN and MBI the whole way down. I think you know who is doing better. That is why my subscribers are killing the crew at realmoney.com which is made up of a lot of horrible “Wall Street bag men.”
Nobody and I mean nobody who subscribes to me is down 20%, if they are using my techniques EXACTLY like I tell them to. So to all of you who do not go with the trend, God bless you. You are going to need the big man upstairs. If you still don’t understand why the trend is so important, you might want to pick up books written by Livermore, Loeb, O’Neil, Weinstein, or Darvas. They will change your life.
I will add more to this on Sunday. But for now ALOOOOOOOOHA!!!! Enjoy the market wrap up video. I know it is hard to see but subscribers get crystal clear Camtasia studio versions. So give us a try, you will NOT be disappointed.
Friday’s Market Wrap:
Gold and Platinum Subscribers Get Full Screen View and Part Two (longs in my scans) and Part Three (shorts in my scans)
It Was A Nice Rally But Overall We Haven’t Gone Anywhere
September 12, 2008
It is extremely late and I am too tired to write a market commentary so my YouTube smaller sized video will have to do for the people who like reading the commentary daily.
Remember, this is the small sized YouTube video. Subscriber get the full screen version along with the usual part two and part three that follow with me going over my long scans and the last video going over my short scans.
Enjoy, Part One and make sure you pay close attention as following the trend will always make you a lot of money:
Subscribers get full screen size and the rest of the videos that I make thoughout the day!!
It is extremely late and I am too tired to write a market commentary so my YouTube smaller sized video will have to do for the people who like reading the commentary daily.
Remember, this is the small sized YouTube video. Subscriber get the full screen version along with the usual part two and part three that follow with me going over my long scans and the last video going over my short scans.
Enjoy, Part One and make sure you pay close attention as following the trend will always make you a lot of money:
Subscribers get full screen size and the rest of the videos that I make thoughout the day!!
Weak Bounce On Lower Volume Shows That The Bulls Don’t Have Much Gas In The Tank
September 10, 2008
This market continues to do what I told you it would do as soon as we came back from Labor Day. Since then, I have been practically on top of this market not missing anything.
The only personal problem I have run into is how come I do not put as much money into my “for sure” sort of shorts. Like I know AAPL, BIDU, RIMM, and GOOG are all breaking down heavy and as we see their marketminder they sure are breaking down with some people staying on the ask giving everything they want to people bidding for these broken stocks.
The main thing to remember, if you have been watching the videos that are now coming with these market commentaries is that without low volume on the selloffs that is followed by heavy volume on the up days, this market will simply keep falling for as long as it has to fall or it will do what it does until accumulation comes in.
The other problem (big problem) with this market is that everytime a beaten down industry tries to come back to life like homebuilders, banks, and insurance companies just more and more problems happen. This is keeping a lid on leading sock is it helps prolong the time we have to wait in this downtrending to sideways moving market.
It simply is not going to be ready until a new industry like a new alternative energy source that pumps out a lot of earnings and huge sales growth. It is going to be a long time until these industry groups show up as a big shakeout must occur where all the past big winners fall and we go through a time of base building that will allow the proper stocks with the right fundamentals to base and eventually build a nice long base that then has a perfect accumulation and distribution pattern in a nice round cup like pattern.
However, I believe we are a long way from a real bottom as I keep saying all the charts that are trying to shape nice bases either carry too little average daily volume, are sub-$1 stocks, or are in industry group that is in the bottom 25% of the entire 197 industry groups that exist in IBD’s data base.
The bottom line is that we are still are no where near a bottom and all of those that continually try to call one are doing nothing but wasting your money. In my worst account I am down 7%. The best growth mutual funds are up only 0% to -5% the past three months. So that should tell you how rough the market is right now. Overall the only place to hide is in medical stocks. I have a few medical stock that have made some nice moves like XSI which produced a 100% in a couple of months. So unless we see a
Free YouTube small version of Part One of the market wrap on Wednesday. The big part one, part two, and part three videos are available to gold and platinum members. Part one is over the general market, part two is going over the longs on my longs scan, part three is the shorts that are in my short scans.
Part one for YouTube (even though it says the 9th, IT IS THE 10th. It is a clerical error:
This market continues to do what I told you it would do as soon as we came back from Labor Day. Since then, I have been practically on top of this market not missing anything.
The only personal problem I have run into is how come I do not put as much money into my “for sure” sort of shorts. Like I know AAPL, BIDU, RIMM, and GOOG are all breaking down heavy and as we see their marketminder they sure are breaking down with some people staying on the ask giving everything they want to people bidding for these broken stocks.
The main thing to remember, if you have been watching the videos that are now coming with these market commentaries is that without low volume on the selloffs that is followed by heavy volume on the up days, this market will simply keep falling for as long as it has to fall or it will do what it does until accumulation comes in.
The other problem (big problem) with this market is that everytime a beaten down industry tries to come back to life like homebuilders, banks, and insurance companies just more and more problems happen. This is keeping a lid on leading sock is it helps prolong the time we have to wait in this downtrending to sideways moving market.
It simply is not going to be ready until a new industry like a new alternative energy source that pumps out a lot of earnings and huge sales growth. It is going to be a long time until these industry groups show up as a big shakeout must occur where all the past big winners fall and we go through a time of base building that will allow the proper stocks with the right fundamentals to base and eventually build a nice long base that then has a perfect accumulation and distribution pattern in a nice round cup like pattern.
However, I believe we are a long way from a real bottom as I keep saying all the charts that are trying to shape nice bases either carry too little average daily volume, are sub-$1 stocks, or are in industry group that is in the bottom 25% of the entire 197 industry groups that exist in IBD’s data base.
The bottom line is that we are still are no where near a bottom and all of those that continually try to call one are doing nothing but wasting your money. In my worst account I am down 7%. The best growth mutual funds are up only 0% to -5% the past three months. So that should tell you how rough the market is right now. Overall the only place to hide is in medical stocks. I have a few medical stock that have made some nice moves like XSI which produced a 100% in a couple of months. So unless we see a
Free YouTube small version of Part One of the market wrap on Wednesday. The big part one, part two, and part three videos are available to gold and platinum members. Part one is over the general market, part two is going over the longs on my longs scan, part three is the shorts that are in my short scans.
Part one for YouTube (even though it says the 9th, IT IS THE 10th. It is a clerical error:
A Not Suprising, To Me, Major Selloff Hits The Markets The Day After I Said A Down 3% Fall Was Probably Around The Corner; Cramer Keeps Buying A Broke
September 10, 2008
Today shocked me about as much as the sun coming up this morning did. This seemed like a perfect reason to bid the market up–and then put out my shorts–so that the usual trend of the overall trend could return. That would be Mr. Downtrend. He has been around since November and even though the downtrend took a semi-time out during the January to August period it is clear stocks are moving lower on every index now.
I have made mention that we have been in a downtrending market since November and made money in shorts from November to January. Since January not much money has been made till August. But recently we have started a downtrend on all the indexes with volume picking up. This has given us a lot of short candidates to mess with and most of them are working. As long as the market continues to selloff on strong volume and rise on lower volume–actually the market can selloff on lower volume so it really doesn’t matter.
The bottom line is that there is no way anyone should be buying stocks and if there is any contributor on another other website recommending buying stocks that are trending lower with the primary trend down with the stock below the 50 DMA and the 50 DMA is below the 200 DMA, you should immediately discontinue reading this contributor that is recommending this stock that is in such a downtrend. And if these contributors are telling you to not cut your losses until you lose 50%, you need to move on to another stock market commentator. These guys will kill you and will make sure you have nothing left in your account by the time the next real bull starts.
So don’t believe the crap you read in the Wall Street Journal, on Thestreet.com, or watch on CNBC. These people have a different paid agenda to drum up business for their market makers to sell into. They tell you, you should do this or that. Then they go and sell into the retail crowd that are buying the BS that they have just drummed up. They sold on the way up. But to get rid of the rest they have to sell on the way down while the market is falling apart. The only way to provide even a little bid is to trick the pubic into placing bids for stocks that they are dumping to you.
It is a big mind game. Do you want to know how to not follow the wrong LIARS on CNBC and the Wall Street Journal? Start by watching my free small size YouTube market wrap videos. Then use those video market wrap ups combined with the William J. O’Neil’s fine Investors Business Dialy “The Big Picture” and their own “market wrap” video and I believe you will be a lot farther along your way to success than you ever will be subscribing to the Wall Street Journal or Realmoney.com. Both of these publications have fallen from respectible sources of information to a big public joke. Look at the price of both parent companies that run both.
To learn how to look at the market the right way and make the big money on the downtrends and the uptrends without falling for the same BS from CNC and the WSJ, start by watching the video below and procede over to IBD to watch the videos there.
Subscribers get access to many videos that look at many different uptrends and dowtrends in the market along with past big winners and day by day analysis of the entire gain. I don’t know it is either me with a bunch of winning stocks in bull and bear markets and a proven track record since 1999 or the dying Cramer with an amazing -18% return this YTD. I think I know which service I would be picking.
Free small size YouTube Version (7 minutes):
Today shocked me about as much as the sun coming up this morning did. This seemed like a perfect reason to bid the market up–and then put out my shorts–so that the usual trend of the overall trend could return. That would be Mr. Downtrend. He has been around since November and even though the downtrend took a semi-time out during the January to August period it is clear stocks are moving lower on every index now.
I have made mention that we have been in a downtrending market since November and made money in shorts from November to January. Since January not much money has been made till August. But recently we have started a downtrend on all the indexes with volume picking up. This has given us a lot of short candidates to mess with and most of them are working. As long as the market continues to selloff on strong volume and rise on lower volume–actually the market can selloff on lower volume so it really doesn’t matter.
The bottom line is that there is no way anyone should be buying stocks and if there is any contributor on another other website recommending buying stocks that are trending lower with the primary trend down with the stock below the 50 DMA and the 50 DMA is below the 200 DMA, you should immediately discontinue reading this contributor that is recommending this stock that is in such a downtrend. And if these contributors are telling you to not cut your losses until you lose 50%, you need to move on to another stock market commentator. These guys will kill you and will make sure you have nothing left in your account by the time the next real bull starts.
So don’t believe the crap you read in the Wall Street Journal, on Thestreet.com, or watch on CNBC. These people have a different paid agenda to drum up business for their market makers to sell into. They tell you, you should do this or that. Then they go and sell into the retail crowd that are buying the BS that they have just drummed up. They sold on the way up. But to get rid of the rest they have to sell on the way down while the market is falling apart. The only way to provide even a little bid is to trick the pubic into placing bids for stocks that they are dumping to you.
It is a big mind game. Do you want to know how to not follow the wrong LIARS on CNBC and the Wall Street Journal? Start by watching my free small size YouTube market wrap videos. Then use those video market wrap ups combined with the William J. O’Neil’s fine Investors Business Dialy “The Big Picture” and their own “market wrap” video and I believe you will be a lot farther along your way to success than you ever will be subscribing to the Wall Street Journal or Realmoney.com. Both of these publications have fallen from respectible sources of information to a big public joke. Look at the price of both parent companies that run both.
To learn how to look at the market the right way and make the big money on the downtrends and the uptrends without falling for the same BS from CNC and the WSJ, start by watching the video below and procede over to IBD to watch the videos there.
Subscribers get access to many videos that look at many different uptrends and dowtrends in the market along with past big winners and day by day analysis of the entire gain. I don’t know it is either me with a bunch of winning stocks in bull and bear markets and a proven track record since 1999 or the dying Cramer with an amazing -18% return this YTD. I think I know which service I would be picking.
Free small size YouTube Version (7 minutes):
September 8, 2008
Well obviously the news of the day was FNM and FRE getting crushed 90% each. For those that know how to read charts you were out of the stocks around $50 in FNM and FRE. So if anyone is actually shocked that the stocks are now trading for under $1, I will say it ONCE AGAIN, you do not have a firm grasp of market history.
Stocks that look great at $50, look better at $40, look the best at $30, can’t be a miss at $20, is an automatic triple at $10, and worthless at $1. That is how is usually goes with 90% of investors out there who think they can trade like that nut Cramer and buy down. He was bullish on the oil pullback that is obviously a top. He makes a comment today that the market is moving on charts and not fundamentals. Does he not understand that in the markets THE FUNDAMENTALS LOOK THE BEST AT THE TOP!! Every bull market ends the same way. With leading stocks showing AMAZING earnings. The stocks top and rollover on huge volume, start a nasty selloff, yet earnings are still amazing and he acts like the world is messed up. No sir, you should know the market tops when earnings look the best. It always has and it always will.
The bottom line is is that these indexes are all in downtrends and being short is now going to pay off more than being long. This also helps seperate the leaders from the losers and eventually allows us to see which stocks are starting to form bases for the next bull run. If it takes a long time for the Nasdaq favorites, oil, ag, manufacturing, and metals stocks to selloff then some very nice long-term bases are going to be made for us that could be the next big leaders in the next bull market.
But some of you seem to think this delays a bottom. I hate to remind you, ONCE AGAIN, that this bull market STARTED in October 2002 and really took off offering up TONS of HOT! and MONSTER STOCKS around March 2003. When you come into the market in 2007–four years after the market started its uptrend–you can be sure that you don’t have much more time for a bullish stock market. But since you entered late and your entry marked a top you can use the next 3 months to 3 years (YES, it could take that long) to study all of my past big winners and all the past big winners of 1890-1996 and see how to hold the 100% to 5000% winners when the market is in a strong uptrend. If you look at China in 2006 and 2007, you can see the exact same pattern that our Nasdaq had in 1999 and 2003. The gains in the Chinese stock while China’s regular market went up 400% prove that when the markets are in an uptrend and stocks are breaking out on huge volume going long is right as long as they are above the 50 and 200 dma and 30 week moving average.
There is nothing that has changed much as all indexes are still in downtrends. The SP600 looks the best but when that index looks good the IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 index looks horrible and are trending well under the 50 and 200 day moving average. That tells you how weak the LEADING stocks are. Combine that with the Nasdaq that can not rise because the leading 4 letter stocks–AAPL RIMM BIDU ISRG GOOG MSFT ORCL CSCO ORCL YHOO–that make up large portions of the index and represent some leaders of the past bull market should show you how weak the market is as these stocks (not all; but most of them) are just now breaking down and even though volume doesn’t seem high. Those that know history know that low volume can start a selloff and then the volume can increase as the stock continues to selloff. I think the market overall was just a good example of that as the Nasdaq started selling off recently with two days of lower volume selling that was followed by two days of above average selling. Now today the index opens strong sells off but can’t get back to much of the loss as it tried to rally late in the day.
This still gives the overall markt a negative look despite some DJIA stocks doing well. The leaders are in the SP 600, the Nasdaq, the IBD 100, and the IBD 85-85. None of these indexes are in the proper trend of trending above the 50 DMA with the 50 DMA above the 200 DMA. No instead, all of these indexes, except the SP 600, are going the exact opposite way.
That is why shorting has been my main way of attacking this market recently but I still am holding a lot of cash as I just can’t trust this market at all as it is still pretty much going nowhere. But with so many trends now below the 50 DMA with the 200 DMA I believe it is safe to go short the leading stocks that have made 100% or more gains during the past bull market from 2002-2007 as long as they setup from a proper short pattern–most look like a heads-and-shoulder top. When the market was going nowhere we did nothing. But now it is trending a bit down and some shorts have definitely started to add up in the portfolio. We will be quick to cut the loss if they do not work, but with the market now trending below the 50 DMA with the 50 DMA below the 200 DMA and all the market leaders breaking down on heavier volume after making ugly bases I am praying the part of my portfolio that is short will make enough money to make up for the heavy cash level that I think is wise to have while the market still is not trending VERY CLEARLY. We are trending down but so many people are still trying to call a bottom that I think we might have a lot more to go to make a five year bull market and the constant bottom callers who just joined the market will not stop trying to call a bottom. Until they shut up and realize they missed the start where the BIG MONEY IS MADE, they will never be able to make the BIG MONEY in the MONSTER STOCKS. Those will be reserved for the best active-investors.
Those that make it through this bear market that study the videos and the rest of my longs and past shorts will be VERY READY for the next bull market. You just have to remember that you can NOT give up during this bear. PATIENCE, PATIENCE, PATIENCE, and more PATIENCE will be required for the selloff to do what it has to do. FNM and FRE going below $1 is not going to put in a market bottom. It is time to get a little more real in this world where reality is the truth. And part of that truth is John McCain overtaking Obama in the latest Gallup poll 48% to 45%!!!!! Now that is some great news to end the day on!!! ALOOOOHA!!
FREE SMALLER SIZE YOUTUBE VERSION OF MY MONDAY MARKET WRAP. THIS IS ONLY PART ONE OF A TWO PART SERIES. SUBSCRIBERS HAVE ACCESS TO FULL SIZE VERSIONS AND THE LONGER PART TWO WHICH GOES OVER IMPORTANT “OTHER” INDEXES AND STOCKS I AM WATCHING ON THE LONG AND SHORT SIDE WITH UNUSUAL ACTION.
Well obviously the news of the day was FNM and FRE getting crushed 90% each. For those that know how to read charts you were out of the stocks around $50 in FNM and FRE. So if anyone is actually shocked that the stocks are now trading for under $1, I will say it ONCE AGAIN, you do not have a firm grasp of market history.
Stocks that look great at $50, look better at $40, look the best at $30, can’t be a miss at $20, is an automatic triple at $10, and worthless at $1. That is how is usually goes with 90% of investors out there who think they can trade like that nut Cramer and buy down. He was bullish on the oil pullback that is obviously a top. He makes a comment today that the market is moving on charts and not fundamentals. Does he not understand that in the markets THE FUNDAMENTALS LOOK THE BEST AT THE TOP!! Every bull market ends the same way. With leading stocks showing AMAZING earnings. The stocks top and rollover on huge volume, start a nasty selloff, yet earnings are still amazing and he acts like the world is messed up. No sir, you should know the market tops when earnings look the best. It always has and it always will.
The bottom line is is that these indexes are all in downtrends and being short is now going to pay off more than being long. This also helps seperate the leaders from the losers and eventually allows us to see which stocks are starting to form bases for the next bull run. If it takes a long time for the Nasdaq favorites, oil, ag, manufacturing, and metals stocks to selloff then some very nice long-term bases are going to be made for us that could be the next big leaders in the next bull market.
But some of you seem to think this delays a bottom. I hate to remind you, ONCE AGAIN, that this bull market STARTED in October 2002 and really took off offering up TONS of HOT! and MONSTER STOCKS around March 2003. When you come into the market in 2007–four years after the market started its uptrend–you can be sure that you don’t have much more time for a bullish stock market. But since you entered late and your entry marked a top you can use the next 3 months to 3 years (YES, it could take that long) to study all of my past big winners and all the past big winners of 1890-1996 and see how to hold the 100% to 5000% winners when the market is in a strong uptrend. If you look at China in 2006 and 2007, you can see the exact same pattern that our Nasdaq had in 1999 and 2003. The gains in the Chinese stock while China’s regular market went up 400% prove that when the markets are in an uptrend and stocks are breaking out on huge volume going long is right as long as they are above the 50 and 200 dma and 30 week moving average.
There is nothing that has changed much as all indexes are still in downtrends. The SP600 looks the best but when that index looks good the IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 index looks horrible and are trending well under the 50 and 200 day moving average. That tells you how weak the LEADING stocks are. Combine that with the Nasdaq that can not rise because the leading 4 letter stocks–AAPL RIMM BIDU ISRG GOOG MSFT ORCL CSCO ORCL YHOO–that make up large portions of the index and represent some leaders of the past bull market should show you how weak the market is as these stocks (not all; but most of them) are just now breaking down and even though volume doesn’t seem high. Those that know history know that low volume can start a selloff and then the volume can increase as the stock continues to selloff. I think the market overall was just a good example of that as the Nasdaq started selling off recently with two days of lower volume selling that was followed by two days of above average selling. Now today the index opens strong sells off but can’t get back to much of the loss as it tried to rally late in the day.
This still gives the overall markt a negative look despite some DJIA stocks doing well. The leaders are in the SP 600, the Nasdaq, the IBD 100, and the IBD 85-85. None of these indexes are in the proper trend of trending above the 50 DMA with the 50 DMA above the 200 DMA. No instead, all of these indexes, except the SP 600, are going the exact opposite way.
That is why shorting has been my main way of attacking this market recently but I still am holding a lot of cash as I just can’t trust this market at all as it is still pretty much going nowhere. But with so many trends now below the 50 DMA with the 200 DMA I believe it is safe to go short the leading stocks that have made 100% or more gains during the past bull market from 2002-2007 as long as they setup from a proper short pattern–most look like a heads-and-shoulder top. When the market was going nowhere we did nothing. But now it is trending a bit down and some shorts have definitely started to add up in the portfolio. We will be quick to cut the loss if they do not work, but with the market now trending below the 50 DMA with the 50 DMA below the 200 DMA and all the market leaders breaking down on heavier volume after making ugly bases I am praying the part of my portfolio that is short will make enough money to make up for the heavy cash level that I think is wise to have while the market still is not trending VERY CLEARLY. We are trending down but so many people are still trying to call a bottom that I think we might have a lot more to go to make a five year bull market and the constant bottom callers who just joined the market will not stop trying to call a bottom. Until they shut up and realize they missed the start where the BIG MONEY IS MADE, they will never be able to make the BIG MONEY in the MONSTER STOCKS. Those will be reserved for the best active-investors.
Those that make it through this bear market that study the videos and the rest of my longs and past shorts will be VERY READY for the next bull market. You just have to remember that you can NOT give up during this bear. PATIENCE, PATIENCE, PATIENCE, and more PATIENCE will be required for the selloff to do what it has to do. FNM and FRE going below $1 is not going to put in a market bottom. It is time to get a little more real in this world where reality is the truth. And part of that truth is John McCain overtaking Obama in the latest Gallup poll 48% to 45%!!!!! Now that is some great news to end the day on!!! ALOOOOHA!!
FREE SMALLER SIZE YOUTUBE VERSION OF MY MONDAY MARKET WRAP. THIS IS ONLY PART ONE OF A TWO PART SERIES. SUBSCRIBERS HAVE ACCESS TO FULL SIZE VERSIONS AND THE LONGER PART TWO WHICH GOES OVER IMPORTANT “OTHER” INDEXES AND STOCKS I AM WATCHING ON THE LONG AND SHORT SIDE WITH UNUSUAL ACTION.
Thursday, September 04, 2008
The Trend Is Still Down On Most Time Frames And People Are Still Trying To Buy “Bargains”; When Will It End–At The Bottom When They Are Broke
September 3, 2008
Today was a basically nothing day as it was just another session that showed an overall weak market in play minus the DJIA which inched up 15 points. This is nothing I would get excited over with the rest of the market falling. So take the gains in the DJIA as it is which I believe was a great session by one stock named General Motors (GM).
The upside leadership remains a joke and even though the SP 500, NYSE are in clear downtrends with the 50 DMA being trailed by the 200 DMA and the Nasdaq is rolling over I am still getting a few NEWBIE investors that are not familiar with the CANSLIM strategy continue to ask me which stock I am buying. I think I have made it clear to platinum investors and I think I will make it clear here.
Unless the stocks sets up just like XSI has in June and August, there is no reason to go long any stock here. I continue to SHOW YOU and REMIND YOU that the best stocks that move up 500% to 3000% during a run that last around 12 months come in BULL MARKETS WHERE THE INDEXES PRICE IS ABOVE THE 50 DMA AND THE 50 DMA IS ABOVE THE 200 DMA. Unless the stock market where the underlying index is coming from is moving up with the moving averages lined up correctly THERE IS NO REASON TO LOAD UP ON ANY STOCK–THIS IS EVEN IF IT HAS SETUP PERFECTLY LIKE XSI. XSI trades too few shares and is too low priced of a stock with the trend being down to yell at everyone to buy it. But if you were a member of my chat room there was no question I was adding to it on 8/13 as it has been the ONLY PERFECT STOCK out there in a market full of ugly stocks. You know why? Because it is in a rising sector called Health Services-Specialized Health Services and the stock is experiencing HUGE EPS and Sales growth where the sales or eps has not been below 114% since the June 2007 quarter.
So you have a stock rallying on strong accumulation and a lot of accumulation, it builds its way from green to max green BOP, and sets up in a nice round perfect chart pattern, while not another single stock looks as good as this stock, and it has EPS 150% and higher the past four quarters with sales 114% and higher the past four quarters. This was an easy long to buy in a negative market as the max green BOP and 95% gain in a little over two months proves it. Why did so many people miss this and why are they recommending stocks down on such strong volume.
I heard a loud talking head on CNBC bought NOV, right after I saw some “smart” analyst tell viewers to buy HAL and NOV yesterday. Did you see how HAL and NOV did today? In a bear market these guys are set out to sell to you. Just like when Heebner was on CNBC telling people to buy PBR. That day I received over 5 questions asking me if I should buy PBR. I tried to sell them on an arithmetic chart how exponentially to an actual climax top it was having. I believe this was on May 20th and if my math is right I saved 5 people 36% as Heebner got the bids from the CNBC viewers to help sell into without crushing the stocks.
When a mutual fund with great returns has gone from $100 million into funds to $7 billion into funds and is now regular guest on investment shows, trust me, they are not out there telling you what stocks to buy. They are telling you what stocks to buy so that they may sell to you. That way your bid keeps the stock from falling too far too fast. If you look at UPL, NOV, HAL, ATLS, RIG, HES, and CLB and if you think you see bargains instead of dangerous stocks on the verge of a major breakdown you really need to either subscribe to this site or take the time to watch my market wrap videos on YouTube which have me going into detail on the major market indexes and why they are so negative right now compared to any time like 1999 and 2003. There is no coincidence that by now we have only had 227 stocks go up 50% this year compared to 1,266 stocks up 50% by this time in 2003. In 2003 there were 587 stocks up over 100%, so far this year there have only been 69. So why are you newbies still buying stocks. Unless it looks like my past big winners or XSI, do not buy it!!! That means there is not ONE STOCK OUT THERE you should be buying. I have screens that show me XSI before they breakout. Those screens are EMPTY right now. So watch out for going long in a downtrending market. You can really lose a lot of money and by the time the real bull market comes you will be out.
Don’t forget to watch my free market wrap videos on YouTube. I have many other videos on past big winners and how I use IBD but that is for Gold/Platinum Members only. Also the YouTube format is a shrunken version so if you want to see a larger sized version sign up for Gold or Platinum and then you get full screenshot videos.
There should be the Wednesday market wrap up by Thursday morning. If it is up earlier I will post a LINK here. ALOOOOHAAA!!
Today was a basically nothing day as it was just another session that showed an overall weak market in play minus the DJIA which inched up 15 points. This is nothing I would get excited over with the rest of the market falling. So take the gains in the DJIA as it is which I believe was a great session by one stock named General Motors (GM).
The upside leadership remains a joke and even though the SP 500, NYSE are in clear downtrends with the 50 DMA being trailed by the 200 DMA and the Nasdaq is rolling over I am still getting a few NEWBIE investors that are not familiar with the CANSLIM strategy continue to ask me which stock I am buying. I think I have made it clear to platinum investors and I think I will make it clear here.
Unless the stocks sets up just like XSI has in June and August, there is no reason to go long any stock here. I continue to SHOW YOU and REMIND YOU that the best stocks that move up 500% to 3000% during a run that last around 12 months come in BULL MARKETS WHERE THE INDEXES PRICE IS ABOVE THE 50 DMA AND THE 50 DMA IS ABOVE THE 200 DMA. Unless the stock market where the underlying index is coming from is moving up with the moving averages lined up correctly THERE IS NO REASON TO LOAD UP ON ANY STOCK–THIS IS EVEN IF IT HAS SETUP PERFECTLY LIKE XSI. XSI trades too few shares and is too low priced of a stock with the trend being down to yell at everyone to buy it. But if you were a member of my chat room there was no question I was adding to it on 8/13 as it has been the ONLY PERFECT STOCK out there in a market full of ugly stocks. You know why? Because it is in a rising sector called Health Services-Specialized Health Services and the stock is experiencing HUGE EPS and Sales growth where the sales or eps has not been below 114% since the June 2007 quarter.
So you have a stock rallying on strong accumulation and a lot of accumulation, it builds its way from green to max green BOP, and sets up in a nice round perfect chart pattern, while not another single stock looks as good as this stock, and it has EPS 150% and higher the past four quarters with sales 114% and higher the past four quarters. This was an easy long to buy in a negative market as the max green BOP and 95% gain in a little over two months proves it. Why did so many people miss this and why are they recommending stocks down on such strong volume.
I heard a loud talking head on CNBC bought NOV, right after I saw some “smart” analyst tell viewers to buy HAL and NOV yesterday. Did you see how HAL and NOV did today? In a bear market these guys are set out to sell to you. Just like when Heebner was on CNBC telling people to buy PBR. That day I received over 5 questions asking me if I should buy PBR. I tried to sell them on an arithmetic chart how exponentially to an actual climax top it was having. I believe this was on May 20th and if my math is right I saved 5 people 36% as Heebner got the bids from the CNBC viewers to help sell into without crushing the stocks.
When a mutual fund with great returns has gone from $100 million into funds to $7 billion into funds and is now regular guest on investment shows, trust me, they are not out there telling you what stocks to buy. They are telling you what stocks to buy so that they may sell to you. That way your bid keeps the stock from falling too far too fast. If you look at UPL, NOV, HAL, ATLS, RIG, HES, and CLB and if you think you see bargains instead of dangerous stocks on the verge of a major breakdown you really need to either subscribe to this site or take the time to watch my market wrap videos on YouTube which have me going into detail on the major market indexes and why they are so negative right now compared to any time like 1999 and 2003. There is no coincidence that by now we have only had 227 stocks go up 50% this year compared to 1,266 stocks up 50% by this time in 2003. In 2003 there were 587 stocks up over 100%, so far this year there have only been 69. So why are you newbies still buying stocks. Unless it looks like my past big winners or XSI, do not buy it!!! That means there is not ONE STOCK OUT THERE you should be buying. I have screens that show me XSI before they breakout. Those screens are EMPTY right now. So watch out for going long in a downtrending market. You can really lose a lot of money and by the time the real bull market comes you will be out.
Don’t forget to watch my free market wrap videos on YouTube. I have many other videos on past big winners and how I use IBD but that is for Gold/Platinum Members only. Also the YouTube format is a shrunken version so if you want to see a larger sized version sign up for Gold or Platinum and then you get full screenshot videos.
There should be the Wednesday market wrap up by Thursday morning. If it is up earlier I will post a LINK here. ALOOOOHAAA!!
The Trend Was My Friend (Down). Was It Yours?
September 3, 2008
I am hoping that a lot of people have realized that the bull market we have had from 2003-to the last day in October was “the bull market.” The facts remain that we are in a downtrend with an overall sideways bias that has made it very hard to make money since January. But now something feels bad and the market feels real heavy.
Not only that, I see charts breaking down from very early topping positions, and I have ag, gold, oil, and other stocks like steel stock breaking down from key breakdown pattern that usually mean the stock is not coming back higher any time soon. This is the time when Wall Street comes out on CNBC and tells you which stocks you should buy so that they may have a market to sell into.
I turned on CNBC for 10 seconds today and saw a guy mention two stocks breaking down with one HEAVILY BREAKING DOWN like his fund was selling to EVERYONE who wanted to buy. The first “buy” recommendation was for HAL. Has anyone noticed that HAL has risen around 400% as a very large cap stock since 2002 till the top that came right after it announced a split. A split is usually a last desperate hope of a big-cap corporation to have small investors find interest in the stock so that they may sell into that crowd. Since that SPLIT the stock is DOWN 36%. During that time the past two months, XSI has risen 85%. Sometimes those you see on TV are not trying to help you AT ALL. There only job is to drum up demand so that they can sell there shares that have topped.
The last recommendation was to “buy” NOV. This stock topped with the rest of the oil stocks around June to July but it held up better than the rest. The only problem was while the stock was holding up it was slowly rolling over below the 50 DMA and the 200 DMA on strong volume. The distribution days are clearly visible on a zoom 5 chart that makes those big red volume distribution bars stick out. Then when I saw it breaking down today below the 50 DMA and 200 DMA on very strong volume I could completely tell that this guy was trying to save his behind in this stock. I am not sure if he was long this ugly stock but if he was not someone he knew was and he was trying to help them. There is NO possible way an intelligent person would be buying a stock that was breaking down on heavy volume after rolling over both key moving average. He had to be on the air to lie to people. After hearing that recommendation, I immediately turned off CNBC and never turned it back on again. When am I going to learn that watching that garbage is nothing but a reinforcement to my Investors Business Daily CANSLIM methodology which continues to crush most analyst gains when they come on air.
Before I go, because you can now get all of my market commentary in video form at youtube. I must say I am shocked at how many people can turn bullish besides the trends being clearly down. I am just a little shocked that so many average people love to buy stocks hitting new lows as they feel they are getting bargains. Folks, if you fail to learn from history, the stock market will eventually wipe you out. I have NEVER been wiped out and I NEVER will be because I cut my losses and only AVERAGE UP when I buy a stock and NEVER average down which is a losing strategy. I just hope you folks are learning a lot right now so that when the bull market does come back. Which it always does you will be ready to score the 100% to 2,800% winners like I was able to do during EVERY uptrend the stock market had from 1998-2008. If the trend of the market is up then your chances of making money increases a lot.
Also another note about the videos. I know the video clarity is not that great but you have to understand gold and platinum users get camtasia versions that come across the computer VERY CLEAR AND PERFECT. The charts are large and everything is clearly legible to read. The small YouTube clip is what you get for free. You get what you pay for and that is why some people are long a lot of cash, like me, avoiding the crumbling to go-nowhere market. And at the same time going decently long stocks like XSI that is up 85% in a little over two months. Some things in life NEVER change. The stock market is one of them. It may act differently and plain “Ol’ Stupid” sometimes but you know what? Every bull market will give you one or two stocks up 1000% and around 10 up 100-300%. We just need a real bull market. Study all my past big winners and you will learn quickly enough how well this methodology works compared to the value guys. I still have not met a value guy who has consistently during EVERY bull market period had a 100% winner much less a stock up 500%. Stick with the CANSLIM system in a bull market and remember to stay in cash in a bear market and you will increase your odds of making money by 50%. Each thing you can add in your favor you should do in a game so unlike the 1980s and 1990s. Boy-oh-boy do I miss those times in the market. That was back when CSCO went up 90,000% from 1990-2000. I miss those days so much.
Have a great day and I hope you a very profitable Wednesday trading session.
I am hoping that a lot of people have realized that the bull market we have had from 2003-to the last day in October was “the bull market.” The facts remain that we are in a downtrend with an overall sideways bias that has made it very hard to make money since January. But now something feels bad and the market feels real heavy.
Not only that, I see charts breaking down from very early topping positions, and I have ag, gold, oil, and other stocks like steel stock breaking down from key breakdown pattern that usually mean the stock is not coming back higher any time soon. This is the time when Wall Street comes out on CNBC and tells you which stocks you should buy so that they may have a market to sell into.
I turned on CNBC for 10 seconds today and saw a guy mention two stocks breaking down with one HEAVILY BREAKING DOWN like his fund was selling to EVERYONE who wanted to buy. The first “buy” recommendation was for HAL. Has anyone noticed that HAL has risen around 400% as a very large cap stock since 2002 till the top that came right after it announced a split. A split is usually a last desperate hope of a big-cap corporation to have small investors find interest in the stock so that they may sell into that crowd. Since that SPLIT the stock is DOWN 36%. During that time the past two months, XSI has risen 85%. Sometimes those you see on TV are not trying to help you AT ALL. There only job is to drum up demand so that they can sell there shares that have topped.
The last recommendation was to “buy” NOV. This stock topped with the rest of the oil stocks around June to July but it held up better than the rest. The only problem was while the stock was holding up it was slowly rolling over below the 50 DMA and the 200 DMA on strong volume. The distribution days are clearly visible on a zoom 5 chart that makes those big red volume distribution bars stick out. Then when I saw it breaking down today below the 50 DMA and 200 DMA on very strong volume I could completely tell that this guy was trying to save his behind in this stock. I am not sure if he was long this ugly stock but if he was not someone he knew was and he was trying to help them. There is NO possible way an intelligent person would be buying a stock that was breaking down on heavy volume after rolling over both key moving average. He had to be on the air to lie to people. After hearing that recommendation, I immediately turned off CNBC and never turned it back on again. When am I going to learn that watching that garbage is nothing but a reinforcement to my Investors Business Daily CANSLIM methodology which continues to crush most analyst gains when they come on air.
Before I go, because you can now get all of my market commentary in video form at youtube. I must say I am shocked at how many people can turn bullish besides the trends being clearly down. I am just a little shocked that so many average people love to buy stocks hitting new lows as they feel they are getting bargains. Folks, if you fail to learn from history, the stock market will eventually wipe you out. I have NEVER been wiped out and I NEVER will be because I cut my losses and only AVERAGE UP when I buy a stock and NEVER average down which is a losing strategy. I just hope you folks are learning a lot right now so that when the bull market does come back. Which it always does you will be ready to score the 100% to 2,800% winners like I was able to do during EVERY uptrend the stock market had from 1998-2008. If the trend of the market is up then your chances of making money increases a lot.
Also another note about the videos. I know the video clarity is not that great but you have to understand gold and platinum users get camtasia versions that come across the computer VERY CLEAR AND PERFECT. The charts are large and everything is clearly legible to read. The small YouTube clip is what you get for free. You get what you pay for and that is why some people are long a lot of cash, like me, avoiding the crumbling to go-nowhere market. And at the same time going decently long stocks like XSI that is up 85% in a little over two months. Some things in life NEVER change. The stock market is one of them. It may act differently and plain “Ol’ Stupid” sometimes but you know what? Every bull market will give you one or two stocks up 1000% and around 10 up 100-300%. We just need a real bull market. Study all my past big winners and you will learn quickly enough how well this methodology works compared to the value guys. I still have not met a value guy who has consistently during EVERY bull market period had a 100% winner much less a stock up 500%. Stick with the CANSLIM system in a bull market and remember to stay in cash in a bear market and you will increase your odds of making money by 50%. Each thing you can add in your favor you should do in a game so unlike the 1980s and 1990s. Boy-oh-boy do I miss those times in the market. That was back when CSCO went up 90,000% from 1990-2000. I miss those days so much.
Have a great day and I hope you a very profitable Wednesday trading session.
Stocks Continue To Drift Around On Low Volume With A Slight Downtrending Bias
There isn't much I have to say this Labor Day except God bless everyone on the Gulf Coast. I am very happy it was downgraded along the way. ONCE AGAIN, the media hypes it like everything else. I am very happy the damage did not occur like Katrina and think it was a CLASS ACT of the RNC to turn its convention into a fund raiser. That is the way to do it!
Back to business, in this low volume market I have made all the key comments I can make the whole week long. The main thing to remember is that the trend is down folks. This is not a market coming from a long-term uptrend or an intermediate uptrend. There has been clear heavier selling compared to accumulation but at least we do have medical stocks looking good. It is hard to go long or short a low volume market and it is pointless as your chances of being whipsawed.
There are very few CLEAN and CLEAR uptrends or downtrends where the stock breaks down at key resistance or stocks bounce at key support. It remains a very random trading arena and unless you are daytrading and even if you are daytrading you need to remember you can be wiped out on one big block order in this market. You can see how quickly stocks fall apart by looking at any insurance or bank stock and you saw how DELL acted Friday. If GOOG, MSFT, BIDU, or any other high-priced stocks start breaking down this market could get ugly. I don't like how some of these stocks have come back up to old highs on EXTREMELY low volume. This gives them up to the perfect opportunity for real sellers to come out and sell on the retail mark-up.
I really am trying to find positives in this market. A few are that that big MER bounce day on HUGE VOLUME is holding and the stock is acting like it wants to retake the 50 DMA. Also RDN, MBI, and ABK all looked like they were going to go under but HUGE ACCUMULATION has entered those stocks with max green BOP helping possibly stick in strong bottoms. There is no guarantee but before this market can even show us its new round of leaders (trust me it isnt just going to be all medical), you have to have the most beaten up stocks with real earnings to show bottoming patterns. And the banks and insurance companies are showing some support. Maybe if tech continues to selloff they can be the next to find the bargain funds that will pick them up that will help us find our next batch of leaders. As you can see by just going through the 197 industry groups in IBD, you can see ONLY medical stocks and a few Service sectors are even in uptrends on the intermediate and sub-intermediate term.
So there is not a whole lot of places to make money outside of medical but medical normally leads in a bear and since they are doing well and we see some stocks possibly bottom it could be not too much longer before we could be closer to the end of this bear. Too bad there will more-than-likely be another leg down (just look at the RS line of the NYSE) since all the former ag, gold, manufacturing, and other agriculture related stocks are starting to rollover. Don't forget oil stocks are also starting to rollover. We could soon be seeing another big move down as NYSE stocks rotate into the Nasdaq. That could be why the Nassy has seen some recent RS gains compared to price recently. Either way, with all the low volume, there is not much to do and I think Jesse Livermore made it VERY CLEAR that the BEST traders DO NOT trade ALL THE TIME and that they only trade when the trend is their friend (we are flat since January--we have no friends) and Gerald Loeb I think says it best below:
“Profits can be made safely ONLY when the opportunity is available and NOT just because they happen to be desired or needed …Willingness and ability to hold funds UNINVESTED while WAITING for real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for invesment survival.”–Gerald Loeb
Enjoy your Labor Day and do not forget I am posting quite a few new PAST BIG WINNERS and other videos this weekend for Gold and Platinum members and pretty soon this weekends PART ONE market wrap should be up on YouTube pretty soon. It is already up for Gold/Plat members in the forums. Enjoy your Labor Day and I will see you tomorrow (Tuesday)!
Back to business, in this low volume market I have made all the key comments I can make the whole week long. The main thing to remember is that the trend is down folks. This is not a market coming from a long-term uptrend or an intermediate uptrend. There has been clear heavier selling compared to accumulation but at least we do have medical stocks looking good. It is hard to go long or short a low volume market and it is pointless as your chances of being whipsawed.
There are very few CLEAN and CLEAR uptrends or downtrends where the stock breaks down at key resistance or stocks bounce at key support. It remains a very random trading arena and unless you are daytrading and even if you are daytrading you need to remember you can be wiped out on one big block order in this market. You can see how quickly stocks fall apart by looking at any insurance or bank stock and you saw how DELL acted Friday. If GOOG, MSFT, BIDU, or any other high-priced stocks start breaking down this market could get ugly. I don't like how some of these stocks have come back up to old highs on EXTREMELY low volume. This gives them up to the perfect opportunity for real sellers to come out and sell on the retail mark-up.
I really am trying to find positives in this market. A few are that that big MER bounce day on HUGE VOLUME is holding and the stock is acting like it wants to retake the 50 DMA. Also RDN, MBI, and ABK all looked like they were going to go under but HUGE ACCUMULATION has entered those stocks with max green BOP helping possibly stick in strong bottoms. There is no guarantee but before this market can even show us its new round of leaders (trust me it isnt just going to be all medical), you have to have the most beaten up stocks with real earnings to show bottoming patterns. And the banks and insurance companies are showing some support. Maybe if tech continues to selloff they can be the next to find the bargain funds that will pick them up that will help us find our next batch of leaders. As you can see by just going through the 197 industry groups in IBD, you can see ONLY medical stocks and a few Service sectors are even in uptrends on the intermediate and sub-intermediate term.
So there is not a whole lot of places to make money outside of medical but medical normally leads in a bear and since they are doing well and we see some stocks possibly bottom it could be not too much longer before we could be closer to the end of this bear. Too bad there will more-than-likely be another leg down (just look at the RS line of the NYSE) since all the former ag, gold, manufacturing, and other agriculture related stocks are starting to rollover. Don't forget oil stocks are also starting to rollover. We could soon be seeing another big move down as NYSE stocks rotate into the Nasdaq. That could be why the Nassy has seen some recent RS gains compared to price recently. Either way, with all the low volume, there is not much to do and I think Jesse Livermore made it VERY CLEAR that the BEST traders DO NOT trade ALL THE TIME and that they only trade when the trend is their friend (we are flat since January--we have no friends) and Gerald Loeb I think says it best below:
“Profits can be made safely ONLY when the opportunity is available and NOT just because they happen to be desired or needed …Willingness and ability to hold funds UNINVESTED while WAITING for real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for invesment survival.”–Gerald Loeb
Enjoy your Labor Day and do not forget I am posting quite a few new PAST BIG WINNERS and other videos this weekend for Gold and Platinum members and pretty soon this weekends PART ONE market wrap should be up on YouTube pretty soon. It is already up for Gold/Plat members in the forums. Enjoy your Labor Day and I will see you tomorrow (Tuesday)!
Thursday, August 28, 2008
No Market Commentary Tonight–Market Wrap Video Is Updated For Gold/Platinum Members
August 28, 2008
I am picking up a friend from the airport, running errands, and going out to eat tonight. This will not allow me enough time to write commentary.
However, if you are a gold or platinum subscriber you can go watch the 8 minute long market-wrap video on the forums or listed in the chat room. If you are are not a gold/plat subscriber you can go to youtube and do a search for the market-wrap videos as they are being shown on there. The quality is 25% of what the members get but at least you can learn where the market is at and the stocks I am interested in, if you are not a subscriber.
Have a great Thursday evening and I will be back to a normal schedule tomorrow and will have everything updated like I do 99% of the time.
ALOHA and thank you for being so kind and understanding!!! It’s not like the market is doing anything spectacular on high volume.
I am picking up a friend from the airport, running errands, and going out to eat tonight. This will not allow me enough time to write commentary.
However, if you are a gold or platinum subscriber you can go watch the 8 minute long market-wrap video on the forums or listed in the chat room. If you are are not a gold/plat subscriber you can go to youtube and do a search for the market-wrap videos as they are being shown on there. The quality is 25% of what the members get but at least you can learn where the market is at and the stocks I am interested in, if you are not a subscriber.
Have a great Thursday evening and I will be back to a normal schedule tomorrow and will have everything updated like I do 99% of the time.
ALOHA and thank you for being so kind and understanding!!! It’s not like the market is doing anything spectacular on high volume.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Stock Indexes Put In Some Decent Gains But Do You Notice The Weakness Intraday And Inability To Close At Or Near The HOD?
August 27, 2008
Stocks put in a good day due to good Durable Goods numbers but I want to bring to the attention of newer investors something that is happening recently on the up days.
Do you notice that a lot not (not a ton) of days where the indexes go higher it does not close at or near the HOD? This in a downtrending is not good. Even in our current sideways market the up days show more intraday weakness near the highs than intraday weakness during the down days. Now while this is nothing to scare you since you already have PLENTY of reasons to being heavily invested in cash. It is just a hint that when a real trend starts again-that we can finally make some real good money again-that the trend will be down.
The leading stocks right now still continue to be medical and while that is good for those solely invested in medical stocks. It is still not a full group leadership by many industry groups. So while I personally have been going long medical stocks and have many medical stocks on my watchlist because it looks like (on my weekly charts) that medical stocks could put in a nice run here (just look at THOR) and I want to have at least 10% of my money invested. But I have learned that even though something looks good today, even in medical, in a bear market profits can be wiped out for no reason in an instant. So for some that are as experienced as me and can see all the same medical stocks that I list in the forums as stocks that are “possible future longs” and you can see currently a few high quality medical stocks that I want to buy off the 50 DMA or a breakout from a long base so to increase my odds of having a winning stock, you can increase your percentage of holdings in your medical stocks.
However, if you have more than 50% of your money invested and the markets roll over on you it will be your own fault because you are playing against the odds. It would be like you having a 7 2 off-suit in Hold ‘em and the guy you are playing heads-up shows you that he is holding bullets (pocket Aces) and you put in him in all-in. It is just stupid and against the odds and nothing but a pure gamble.
But sure you experienced guys that get some nice medical stocks (not like MR–there were flaws in that chart that were obvious to me and I might make a video on it to show you how not to get suckered in to weak bases with flaws) setting up, feel free to put up to 25% of your money into them. They seem stable, for now. For me I will stick to 85% cash and 15% invested. This is not 1999 or 2003 when the indexes were trending up on higher volume and never going below the 50 DMA while having 10-30 PERFECT (max green BOP, big price gains, and HUGE volume suges) charts setting up and breaking out. This kind of market WILL SHOW UP AGAIN. Especially after a long bear market like we are starting to get as we are about to enter our 11th month from the top on October 31, 2007. I currently have one perfect chart where I usually see 10-30 in a bull market. So we are no where neer we need to be.
But let me be clear. Those of you that can not make money going short, WHEN THE MARKET IS READY, like November to January, need to avoid trading to be trading. Please after you read this go to the “new short positions” and read that so you can learn why I did not go short what could have been a perfect setup and please to to my “new longs positions” so you can learn why a possible perfect move can in just one-day lose its beauty and thus become just a normal long to take to try to make rent/mortgage payments.
There are times to load up on stocks to the long side (in a bull market) and there are times to load up with shorts (in a bear market.) But when you are trendless since January you just have to wait till the market starts moving on volume after this low volume period that normally happens right before Labor Day. So keep an eye on your leading stocks (medical stock right now) and keep that cash level high so that when this market turns you will be ready to get very long. Don’t forget: CASH IS KING!!!
“Profits can be made safely ONLY when the opportunity is available and NOT just because they happen to be desired or needed …Willingness and ability to hold funds UNINVESTED while WAITING for real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for invesment survival.”–Gerald Loeb
Stocks put in a good day due to good Durable Goods numbers but I want to bring to the attention of newer investors something that is happening recently on the up days.
Do you notice that a lot not (not a ton) of days where the indexes go higher it does not close at or near the HOD? This in a downtrending is not good. Even in our current sideways market the up days show more intraday weakness near the highs than intraday weakness during the down days. Now while this is nothing to scare you since you already have PLENTY of reasons to being heavily invested in cash. It is just a hint that when a real trend starts again-that we can finally make some real good money again-that the trend will be down.
The leading stocks right now still continue to be medical and while that is good for those solely invested in medical stocks. It is still not a full group leadership by many industry groups. So while I personally have been going long medical stocks and have many medical stocks on my watchlist because it looks like (on my weekly charts) that medical stocks could put in a nice run here (just look at THOR) and I want to have at least 10% of my money invested. But I have learned that even though something looks good today, even in medical, in a bear market profits can be wiped out for no reason in an instant. So for some that are as experienced as me and can see all the same medical stocks that I list in the forums as stocks that are “possible future longs” and you can see currently a few high quality medical stocks that I want to buy off the 50 DMA or a breakout from a long base so to increase my odds of having a winning stock, you can increase your percentage of holdings in your medical stocks.
However, if you have more than 50% of your money invested and the markets roll over on you it will be your own fault because you are playing against the odds. It would be like you having a 7 2 off-suit in Hold ‘em and the guy you are playing heads-up shows you that he is holding bullets (pocket Aces) and you put in him in all-in. It is just stupid and against the odds and nothing but a pure gamble.
But sure you experienced guys that get some nice medical stocks (not like MR–there were flaws in that chart that were obvious to me and I might make a video on it to show you how not to get suckered in to weak bases with flaws) setting up, feel free to put up to 25% of your money into them. They seem stable, for now. For me I will stick to 85% cash and 15% invested. This is not 1999 or 2003 when the indexes were trending up on higher volume and never going below the 50 DMA while having 10-30 PERFECT (max green BOP, big price gains, and HUGE volume suges) charts setting up and breaking out. This kind of market WILL SHOW UP AGAIN. Especially after a long bear market like we are starting to get as we are about to enter our 11th month from the top on October 31, 2007. I currently have one perfect chart where I usually see 10-30 in a bull market. So we are no where neer we need to be.
But let me be clear. Those of you that can not make money going short, WHEN THE MARKET IS READY, like November to January, need to avoid trading to be trading. Please after you read this go to the “new short positions” and read that so you can learn why I did not go short what could have been a perfect setup and please to to my “new longs positions” so you can learn why a possible perfect move can in just one-day lose its beauty and thus become just a normal long to take to try to make rent/mortgage payments.
There are times to load up on stocks to the long side (in a bull market) and there are times to load up with shorts (in a bear market.) But when you are trendless since January you just have to wait till the market starts moving on volume after this low volume period that normally happens right before Labor Day. So keep an eye on your leading stocks (medical stock right now) and keep that cash level high so that when this market turns you will be ready to get very long. Don’t forget: CASH IS KING!!!
“Profits can be made safely ONLY when the opportunity is available and NOT just because they happen to be desired or needed …Willingness and ability to hold funds UNINVESTED while WAITING for real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for invesment survival.”–Gerald Loeb
Another Day Of Active Headlines But A Dead Day For The Indexes
August 26, 2008
If today proves that headlines don’t mean anything in the short or long-term of the market. I don’t know what would make you believe that news stories are just ways for journalist to describe what is happening. After waking up and going over the news stories of the morning I expected the market to be up big or down big as a lot of action was going on out there.
Of course, when I go to take a look at the US Bourses it became clear that the headlines did little to drive the market anywhere. That should help people realize that it is not the news that drives the market but the market of buyers and sellers that drive the market.
One of the for surest things I thought I would see today with all the active headlines was at least heavy volume. Proving that supply and demand and what institutional funds think is more important even volume remained lower. So basically what I saw today was a very noisy day that seemed to even try to put a positive spin on things so the market can rally higher.
Another disturbing thing I saw as soon as I turned on CNBC which is something I rarely ever do is that I head the word “buy” so many times that I was very upset at CNBC by the time I had enough of this waste of airtime. Telling mom and pops to buy stocks on the way down post 1999 is such a disturbing and is such poor advice that I can not believe “mom” and “pop” still don’t get it.
I see Cramer out there with a weak performance in this Action Alert Plus account yet CNBC does all it can to promote Cramer while at the same time it does NOTHING TO EVEN MENTION THE IBD 100 OR IBD 85-85 INDEX. I guess this is because to buy a stock, then watch it to see if it goes up or down, and then to actually have to cut your loss if it does not go higher must be too hard for “mom” and “pop.”
Well I am one of those people that not only get insulted by the lack of IBD index mentions but how silly that channel is as it expects that we are too stupid to buy high and ride a stock higher. No, instead on CNBC, for about two hours today all I heard was if you some would go “short FNM or FRE” or if they would buy “this or that stock on the pullback.” Never mind that this time the pullback is on VERY HEAVY VOLUME and is clear distribution and not a nice pullback that will lead to institutions supporting the stock.
Right now, in this market where the summer doldrums is shown via the extremely low volume on the indexes I want to really stress to those that are taking the time to better their life by reading my blog to NOT BUY ON THE PULBACKS. YOU SHOULD ONLY BUY WHEN THE INDEXES ARE GOING UP ON STRONG VOLUME (NOT THE BELOW AVERAGE VOLUME WE HAVE NOW) AND THE MEDIA IS TELLING YOU TO BE AFRAID OF STOCKS. When the media is telling you to buy stocks now and telling you to do it while the indexes are on the way down, the bottom line is, CNBC must be totally clueless to how the greatest investors make the most money.
Jesse Livermore, William O’Neil, Geral Loeb, Nic Darvas, David Ryan, Lee Firestone, Bernard Baruch, James DePorre, and many of the other greatest trades that ever lived KNOW THAT YOU BUY STOCKS IN A MARKET THAT IS TRENDING UP WITH THE 50 DMA ABOVE THE 200 DMA. AND WHEN THE MARKET IS GOING DOWN (OR SIDEWAYS LIKE NOW) THEY KNEW IT WAS BEST TO BE IN CASH OR SHORT (OR IN OUR CASE WHERE THE MARKET IS GOING COMPLETELY SIDEWAYS, ONLY CASH IS THE SAFE PLACE TO BE) ESPECIALLY WITH THE INDEX PRICES TRENDING BELOW THE 50 DMA. The bottom line, right now, it is not safe to be long stocks.
From November to January we made good money going short stocks. How were we able to do that? Easily. The market fell over 20% during that time. Since January the market has barely moved 10% up or down and that has caused the past seven months to be very difficult as CASH HAS BEEN KING. IT STILL IS and until the trend breaks out upwards or breaksdown downwards, there is nothing INTELLIGENT TO DO. There should be 10-20 HOT!!! charts right now if we were about to have a bull market. But right now we barely have two. Same thing with shorts. If this market was ready to breakdown hard, we would have excellent setups right at the 50 and 200 DMA that would be breaking down on heavy volume. So this is a wait and see market. It is easy for me to chill out and wait for perfect charts. But for those that do NOT know their history and/or are here to get rich quick…this is where the game KNOCKS YOU OUT. This is why there are so many great stocks during bull markets. I can show you my hotties all day long because SADLY 90% probably will not be here in three years. This is why Jesse Livermore says this will always work.
Human emotions NEVER CHANGE. Greed and fear drive all humans. And since we as a culture HATE to study history. Those that do study history are guaranteed to make a fortune EVENTUALLY!!!! Aloha and I will see you tomorrow. Don’t forget gold/platinum members that I have a Tuesday Market Wrap video with some charts of stocks that look good and don’t look good. So enjoy that gold and platinum members. I know you guys are loving the videos. AND I LOVE MAKING THEM!!!! ALOHA!!!
If today proves that headlines don’t mean anything in the short or long-term of the market. I don’t know what would make you believe that news stories are just ways for journalist to describe what is happening. After waking up and going over the news stories of the morning I expected the market to be up big or down big as a lot of action was going on out there.
Of course, when I go to take a look at the US Bourses it became clear that the headlines did little to drive the market anywhere. That should help people realize that it is not the news that drives the market but the market of buyers and sellers that drive the market.
One of the for surest things I thought I would see today with all the active headlines was at least heavy volume. Proving that supply and demand and what institutional funds think is more important even volume remained lower. So basically what I saw today was a very noisy day that seemed to even try to put a positive spin on things so the market can rally higher.
Another disturbing thing I saw as soon as I turned on CNBC which is something I rarely ever do is that I head the word “buy” so many times that I was very upset at CNBC by the time I had enough of this waste of airtime. Telling mom and pops to buy stocks on the way down post 1999 is such a disturbing and is such poor advice that I can not believe “mom” and “pop” still don’t get it.
I see Cramer out there with a weak performance in this Action Alert Plus account yet CNBC does all it can to promote Cramer while at the same time it does NOTHING TO EVEN MENTION THE IBD 100 OR IBD 85-85 INDEX. I guess this is because to buy a stock, then watch it to see if it goes up or down, and then to actually have to cut your loss if it does not go higher must be too hard for “mom” and “pop.”
Well I am one of those people that not only get insulted by the lack of IBD index mentions but how silly that channel is as it expects that we are too stupid to buy high and ride a stock higher. No, instead on CNBC, for about two hours today all I heard was if you some would go “short FNM or FRE” or if they would buy “this or that stock on the pullback.” Never mind that this time the pullback is on VERY HEAVY VOLUME and is clear distribution and not a nice pullback that will lead to institutions supporting the stock.
Right now, in this market where the summer doldrums is shown via the extremely low volume on the indexes I want to really stress to those that are taking the time to better their life by reading my blog to NOT BUY ON THE PULBACKS. YOU SHOULD ONLY BUY WHEN THE INDEXES ARE GOING UP ON STRONG VOLUME (NOT THE BELOW AVERAGE VOLUME WE HAVE NOW) AND THE MEDIA IS TELLING YOU TO BE AFRAID OF STOCKS. When the media is telling you to buy stocks now and telling you to do it while the indexes are on the way down, the bottom line is, CNBC must be totally clueless to how the greatest investors make the most money.
Jesse Livermore, William O’Neil, Geral Loeb, Nic Darvas, David Ryan, Lee Firestone, Bernard Baruch, James DePorre, and many of the other greatest trades that ever lived KNOW THAT YOU BUY STOCKS IN A MARKET THAT IS TRENDING UP WITH THE 50 DMA ABOVE THE 200 DMA. AND WHEN THE MARKET IS GOING DOWN (OR SIDEWAYS LIKE NOW) THEY KNEW IT WAS BEST TO BE IN CASH OR SHORT (OR IN OUR CASE WHERE THE MARKET IS GOING COMPLETELY SIDEWAYS, ONLY CASH IS THE SAFE PLACE TO BE) ESPECIALLY WITH THE INDEX PRICES TRENDING BELOW THE 50 DMA. The bottom line, right now, it is not safe to be long stocks.
From November to January we made good money going short stocks. How were we able to do that? Easily. The market fell over 20% during that time. Since January the market has barely moved 10% up or down and that has caused the past seven months to be very difficult as CASH HAS BEEN KING. IT STILL IS and until the trend breaks out upwards or breaksdown downwards, there is nothing INTELLIGENT TO DO. There should be 10-20 HOT!!! charts right now if we were about to have a bull market. But right now we barely have two. Same thing with shorts. If this market was ready to breakdown hard, we would have excellent setups right at the 50 and 200 DMA that would be breaking down on heavy volume. So this is a wait and see market. It is easy for me to chill out and wait for perfect charts. But for those that do NOT know their history and/or are here to get rich quick…this is where the game KNOCKS YOU OUT. This is why there are so many great stocks during bull markets. I can show you my hotties all day long because SADLY 90% probably will not be here in three years. This is why Jesse Livermore says this will always work.
Human emotions NEVER CHANGE. Greed and fear drive all humans. And since we as a culture HATE to study history. Those that do study history are guaranteed to make a fortune EVENTUALLY!!!! Aloha and I will see you tomorrow. Don’t forget gold/platinum members that I have a Tuesday Market Wrap video with some charts of stocks that look good and don’t look good. So enjoy that gold and platinum members. I know you guys are loving the videos. AND I LOVE MAKING THEM!!!! ALOHA!!!
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
A Whole Lot Of NOthing To Talk About
August 25, 2008
Usually on a day that sees all the indexes fall 200 points there is a ton to talk about. But the fact that volume was extremely low and that I have been talking about this recent volume failing there was not a whole lot of anything new that happened today.
I think the oddest development was that volume was so low today. I know we have had a lot of low volume days but to have such a wide and broad selloff where so many stocks got hit by low volume was quite weird. The low volume breakdowns make it very hard to go short a market that could be coming up to a selloff on heavier volume. By the time the heavy volume comes into the selloff most of the stocks will probably will be too extended from a safe short pattern.
So for now cash continues to be my old faithful. I mean when you go long strong stocks like HGR and you immediately get hit with that kind of reversal there becomes know question why being long is so dangerous. There is one long that starts with the letter X that is doing well for me but overall one stock out of 8,000 that looks HOT! is not a good sign for a long-term rally. Especially when the SP 500, NYSE, DJIA are all under the 50 DMA and the Nassy is below the downtrending 200 DMA.
This is a lame pullback and from 1/24/08 to 8/25/08 the stock market has barely moved .20% on the Nasdaq. From November ot the January lows (intraday) the market fell almost 22% making it very easy to pick off shorts in that bear market. What we have here is NOTHING like what we had from November to January. And for those still trying to go long stocks “heavily,” it is obvious that you have not read any of the books I have recommended and you continue to not listen to me when I say DO NOT GO LONG STOCKS IN A DOWNTREND. 3 OUT OF 4 STOCKS FOLLOW THE GENERAL TREND OF THE MARKET AND WITHOUT HOT! HOT! HOT! MAX GREEN BOP PRETTY CHARTS, CANSLIM STOCKS, AND A MARKET MOVING UP ON VOLUME THERE IS NO WAY PEOPLE SHOULD BE GOING LONG OUT THERE. Be very careful out there and REMEMBER CASH IS KING.
For Platinum and Gold members two more new videos are posted. My daily “market wrap” video and another video on another PAST BIG WINNER that CLEARLY made a climax top which signaled you to get out on the way up. Many of you seem to have a tough time with this so tomorrow we will go over another one from 2006 called ERS. Aloha and I will see you in the chat room which is more active than this market. ALOHA!!!
Usually on a day that sees all the indexes fall 200 points there is a ton to talk about. But the fact that volume was extremely low and that I have been talking about this recent volume failing there was not a whole lot of anything new that happened today.
I think the oddest development was that volume was so low today. I know we have had a lot of low volume days but to have such a wide and broad selloff where so many stocks got hit by low volume was quite weird. The low volume breakdowns make it very hard to go short a market that could be coming up to a selloff on heavier volume. By the time the heavy volume comes into the selloff most of the stocks will probably will be too extended from a safe short pattern.
So for now cash continues to be my old faithful. I mean when you go long strong stocks like HGR and you immediately get hit with that kind of reversal there becomes know question why being long is so dangerous. There is one long that starts with the letter X that is doing well for me but overall one stock out of 8,000 that looks HOT! is not a good sign for a long-term rally. Especially when the SP 500, NYSE, DJIA are all under the 50 DMA and the Nassy is below the downtrending 200 DMA.
This is a lame pullback and from 1/24/08 to 8/25/08 the stock market has barely moved .20% on the Nasdaq. From November ot the January lows (intraday) the market fell almost 22% making it very easy to pick off shorts in that bear market. What we have here is NOTHING like what we had from November to January. And for those still trying to go long stocks “heavily,” it is obvious that you have not read any of the books I have recommended and you continue to not listen to me when I say DO NOT GO LONG STOCKS IN A DOWNTREND. 3 OUT OF 4 STOCKS FOLLOW THE GENERAL TREND OF THE MARKET AND WITHOUT HOT! HOT! HOT! MAX GREEN BOP PRETTY CHARTS, CANSLIM STOCKS, AND A MARKET MOVING UP ON VOLUME THERE IS NO WAY PEOPLE SHOULD BE GOING LONG OUT THERE. Be very careful out there and REMEMBER CASH IS KING.
For Platinum and Gold members two more new videos are posted. My daily “market wrap” video and another video on another PAST BIG WINNER that CLEARLY made a climax top which signaled you to get out on the way up. Many of you seem to have a tough time with this so tomorrow we will go over another one from 2006 called ERS. Aloha and I will see you in the chat room which is more active than this market. ALOHA!!!
Friday, August 22, 2008
Stocks End The Weekend The Way They Started: Without Volume And Flat
August 23, 2008
This was one of the lamest weeks all year as stock market indexes barely went anywhere. Not only that I have to admit that not much happened that would have me excited about the upcoming week. The only exciting moment in my stock market life is that we have the power to create screenshot videos and show you exactly what I am looking at as we go along. That can only help you become a better trader.
My biggest problem right now is getting inexperienced investors to stop trading this trendless market that is doing its best to drive a lot of traders nuts. The smartest traders realize that most breakouts in market environments like this fail immediately. But there is still a handful of egotistical traders that believe they can be the 10% that can beat the overall market when it is in a position not to be beat. That is about the only thing that is driving me nuts right now because I know when it is time to not be doing anything and that time has reached us.
There are some people that are for sure there are great stocks out there and that we just can’t find them. Those folks are wrong and the fact is that the only stocks that are doing well right now are stocks that do well in bear market environments. That is medical stocks, consumer durable stocks, and other safety stocks like soap and other products that sell well even in a market that is going nowhere.
That is my biggest problem with this market right now. I have never had a problem with a bear market. I understand that stocks mus fall and that it is only fair to be able to profit from them as long as they setup in correct short patterns. However, if the stocks dont set up and go past logical shorting points there is nothing you can do and you just have to miss making money on the short side. It sucks but it is the way it goes sometimes.
I am not for sure which way the next break will be but the way the charts look and the lack of beautiful charts setting up I would have to say eventually we are going to break lower. If that is the case I will se looking to go shor the best of the best from 2003 to 2007. There were tons of stocks that made double to triple digit gains that will eventually come back to earth when this is all said and done.
Right now, until an uptrend or downtrend is clearly presented in itself in the Nadaq, NYSE, DJIA, or IBD indexes, it is foolish to go either long or short right now. I know many traders who are going short and failing and many traders going long and failing. Besides a few longs like XSI, DGLY, PDO, and XCO it has been a very pathetic 2008. This has been the worst year of trading for myself since 1996 and back then I did not know what I was doing. So I am hoping that an uptrend or downtrend can come about and end this sideways action that is killing my personal accounts as I can not make a solid living returning 0% this year.
At least I am not losing money. I have heard a recent horror story of someone trading their personal account down 48% this year. That is horrible and that is impossible if you learn to cut your losses. This is why I stress that you must always cut you rr loss at 7-8% or at the 50 day moving average NO MATTER WHAT. When you are wrong, admit you are wrong and do not suffer any more unnecessary pain that what is necessary.
Aloha and I will see you Monday where hopefully something else moves like XSI. I need more beautiful max green BOP medical stocks that are setting up and breaking out of sound price patterns on strong volume to salvage my year. As you can see in the mutual fund section all of the best mutual fund are doing horrible. Even the best funds are having horrible years. So if you are flat for the year and are used to triple digit returns during strong bull market years like 98, 99, 03, and 04 just remember this happens and you will have to deal with it. This too shall pass and eventually another great bull market will come along with many 100% to 2000% winners. For now we just have to deal with this flat market. Rememer, this too shall pass.
Until the time comes feel free to learn in realtime about the stock market in my new videos section. It is only available to the gold and platinum subscriers and the information in each of the videos I am sure will greatly enhance your investment ability. The videos have already been received very well and I can only assume as we get more winning stocks showing up and I can get in depth with the past true PAST BIG WINNERS the videos will only help you become a better investor as time goes along.
For now, that is all we have until the market turns up or down and a downtrend or uptrend restarts. For now this market is bumming me and most participants out. But thankfully I know my history and know a trend will soon return. It is all about patience, protecting your capital, and keeping your watchlist updated. Be careful out there and remember this too shall pass and we will soon have a powerful rally one of these days that make us a ton of money. Just be patient and do NOT force trades. Whatever you do just be patient and let the max green BOP, heavy accumulation, and perfect price patterns come to you. Don’t you go looking for them; they should find you.
This was one of the lamest weeks all year as stock market indexes barely went anywhere. Not only that I have to admit that not much happened that would have me excited about the upcoming week. The only exciting moment in my stock market life is that we have the power to create screenshot videos and show you exactly what I am looking at as we go along. That can only help you become a better trader.
My biggest problem right now is getting inexperienced investors to stop trading this trendless market that is doing its best to drive a lot of traders nuts. The smartest traders realize that most breakouts in market environments like this fail immediately. But there is still a handful of egotistical traders that believe they can be the 10% that can beat the overall market when it is in a position not to be beat. That is about the only thing that is driving me nuts right now because I know when it is time to not be doing anything and that time has reached us.
There are some people that are for sure there are great stocks out there and that we just can’t find them. Those folks are wrong and the fact is that the only stocks that are doing well right now are stocks that do well in bear market environments. That is medical stocks, consumer durable stocks, and other safety stocks like soap and other products that sell well even in a market that is going nowhere.
That is my biggest problem with this market right now. I have never had a problem with a bear market. I understand that stocks mus fall and that it is only fair to be able to profit from them as long as they setup in correct short patterns. However, if the stocks dont set up and go past logical shorting points there is nothing you can do and you just have to miss making money on the short side. It sucks but it is the way it goes sometimes.
I am not for sure which way the next break will be but the way the charts look and the lack of beautiful charts setting up I would have to say eventually we are going to break lower. If that is the case I will se looking to go shor the best of the best from 2003 to 2007. There were tons of stocks that made double to triple digit gains that will eventually come back to earth when this is all said and done.
Right now, until an uptrend or downtrend is clearly presented in itself in the Nadaq, NYSE, DJIA, or IBD indexes, it is foolish to go either long or short right now. I know many traders who are going short and failing and many traders going long and failing. Besides a few longs like XSI, DGLY, PDO, and XCO it has been a very pathetic 2008. This has been the worst year of trading for myself since 1996 and back then I did not know what I was doing. So I am hoping that an uptrend or downtrend can come about and end this sideways action that is killing my personal accounts as I can not make a solid living returning 0% this year.
At least I am not losing money. I have heard a recent horror story of someone trading their personal account down 48% this year. That is horrible and that is impossible if you learn to cut your losses. This is why I stress that you must always cut you rr loss at 7-8% or at the 50 day moving average NO MATTER WHAT. When you are wrong, admit you are wrong and do not suffer any more unnecessary pain that what is necessary.
Aloha and I will see you Monday where hopefully something else moves like XSI. I need more beautiful max green BOP medical stocks that are setting up and breaking out of sound price patterns on strong volume to salvage my year. As you can see in the mutual fund section all of the best mutual fund are doing horrible. Even the best funds are having horrible years. So if you are flat for the year and are used to triple digit returns during strong bull market years like 98, 99, 03, and 04 just remember this happens and you will have to deal with it. This too shall pass and eventually another great bull market will come along with many 100% to 2000% winners. For now we just have to deal with this flat market. Rememer, this too shall pass.
Until the time comes feel free to learn in realtime about the stock market in my new videos section. It is only available to the gold and platinum subscriers and the information in each of the videos I am sure will greatly enhance your investment ability. The videos have already been received very well and I can only assume as we get more winning stocks showing up and I can get in depth with the past true PAST BIG WINNERS the videos will only help you become a better investor as time goes along.
For now, that is all we have until the market turns up or down and a downtrend or uptrend restarts. For now this market is bumming me and most participants out. But thankfully I know my history and know a trend will soon return. It is all about patience, protecting your capital, and keeping your watchlist updated. Be careful out there and remember this too shall pass and we will soon have a powerful rally one of these days that make us a ton of money. Just be patient and do NOT force trades. Whatever you do just be patient and let the max green BOP, heavy accumulation, and perfect price patterns come to you. Don’t you go looking for them; they should find you.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Starting To Get Worried But Not Really
August 22, 2008
I hope that my internal feelings are a contrarian but as every day that goes along that I continue to scan my charts and see nothing that looks like it wants to rally or make higher highs in a proper fashion I get a little more nervous that I begin to think that this bear market is going to go on a lot longer than I would like it to.
I am not sure where I heard the saying, or if I even ever heard the saying and have come up with it on my own by studying the market, but if a bear market does not last six months or less it usually last two years or longer. The problem now is the it is clearly past six months since the top in November but at the same time there are absolutely zero charts that are ought there with beautiful patterns that make me feel comfortable that we have a real rally coming along any time soon.
Instead what I see are ugly rallies in medical and other defensive stocks that do not give investors a safe chance to get in or are in chart patterns that are so V-shaped that I am not sure people should be getting involved anyways. However, it doesn’t matter what I say, newbies constantly think they are smarter than this market. So I’ll watch them bottom fish FRE and FNM till they are broke. If you loved it at 60…you’ll love it at…3.
It is just amazing to me how many times I can say “DO NOT GO LONG STOCKS HERE BECAUSE IT IS TOO DANGEROUS AS THE MARKET IS TRENDLESS,” how many foolish traders will literally buy a breakout on margin and watch that breakout reverse and kill them on margin. Unless the trend is up there is no way you should be going long stocks. At this point I feel like no matter how many times I tell newbies to not go long they are not going to listen to me. Some people are saying, “but Joshua, you went long that beautiful chart XSI and made a pretty penny in that.”
First off, I have made it clear that those that are experienced are allowed to trade if they feel like they have a perfect stock setup. XSI was mine. I took it. If you are a newbie there is no way you can tell how beautiful something like that is and you can not risk your money on that. I have seen SMART TRADERS go long MR, MPWR, and OPTR during this recent market. Each breakout was ugly and showed signs that they were not going to work, had red BOP somewhere in the chart, or had other problems that made them poor longs. However, these smart traders still went long. The difference between their mistake and and newbies. Their mistake more-than-likely barely cost them. A newbie would have loaded up on XSI, MPWR, MR, and OPTR. Then he would have told you about the XSI trade but not of his other three losers. Thankfully for me (which I showed you a video of MPWR being ugly compared to XSI) I went long XSI and am very happy about it.
Am I upset I did not buy more? Yes. But is it ever smart to buy a stock with only 59,000 shares average and only $6 a share? No. This is a tough market and remember just because us experienced guys are having fun dinking around with a trade here or there does not mean that you should be playing around also. Do you see how low the volume is on the Nasdaq and NYSE? Do you think any of the big boys are anywhere around? You better believe they are not. Volume doesn’t ever look like that unless NYC is in the Hamptons.
Volume is low and while the big boys are gone you should go out and enjoy your life. You never know what tomorrow might bring. Hey, how about that China crash nobody is talking about? That’s something huh.
I hope that my internal feelings are a contrarian but as every day that goes along that I continue to scan my charts and see nothing that looks like it wants to rally or make higher highs in a proper fashion I get a little more nervous that I begin to think that this bear market is going to go on a lot longer than I would like it to.
I am not sure where I heard the saying, or if I even ever heard the saying and have come up with it on my own by studying the market, but if a bear market does not last six months or less it usually last two years or longer. The problem now is the it is clearly past six months since the top in November but at the same time there are absolutely zero charts that are ought there with beautiful patterns that make me feel comfortable that we have a real rally coming along any time soon.
Instead what I see are ugly rallies in medical and other defensive stocks that do not give investors a safe chance to get in or are in chart patterns that are so V-shaped that I am not sure people should be getting involved anyways. However, it doesn’t matter what I say, newbies constantly think they are smarter than this market. So I’ll watch them bottom fish FRE and FNM till they are broke. If you loved it at 60…you’ll love it at…3.
It is just amazing to me how many times I can say “DO NOT GO LONG STOCKS HERE BECAUSE IT IS TOO DANGEROUS AS THE MARKET IS TRENDLESS,” how many foolish traders will literally buy a breakout on margin and watch that breakout reverse and kill them on margin. Unless the trend is up there is no way you should be going long stocks. At this point I feel like no matter how many times I tell newbies to not go long they are not going to listen to me. Some people are saying, “but Joshua, you went long that beautiful chart XSI and made a pretty penny in that.”
First off, I have made it clear that those that are experienced are allowed to trade if they feel like they have a perfect stock setup. XSI was mine. I took it. If you are a newbie there is no way you can tell how beautiful something like that is and you can not risk your money on that. I have seen SMART TRADERS go long MR, MPWR, and OPTR during this recent market. Each breakout was ugly and showed signs that they were not going to work, had red BOP somewhere in the chart, or had other problems that made them poor longs. However, these smart traders still went long. The difference between their mistake and and newbies. Their mistake more-than-likely barely cost them. A newbie would have loaded up on XSI, MPWR, MR, and OPTR. Then he would have told you about the XSI trade but not of his other three losers. Thankfully for me (which I showed you a video of MPWR being ugly compared to XSI) I went long XSI and am very happy about it.
Am I upset I did not buy more? Yes. But is it ever smart to buy a stock with only 59,000 shares average and only $6 a share? No. This is a tough market and remember just because us experienced guys are having fun dinking around with a trade here or there does not mean that you should be playing around also. Do you see how low the volume is on the Nasdaq and NYSE? Do you think any of the big boys are anywhere around? You better believe they are not. Volume doesn’t ever look like that unless NYC is in the Hamptons.
Volume is low and while the big boys are gone you should go out and enjoy your life. You never know what tomorrow might bring. Hey, how about that China crash nobody is talking about? That’s something huh.
Stocks Put In Weak Gains On Even Weaker Volume
August 21, 2008
When it comes to making a living in the stock market I have had no problem doing that for the past thriteen years. But all of a sudden this year, this trendless market has made it near impossible to make a lot of money. There are a few mutual funds that are up for the year but the majority of the greatest funds and greatest traders are finding it very difficult to make money in a market that simply does not go anywhere.
Now, while we have had some big winners like PDO, XCO, and DGLY, we have also had some disappointments like BRKR BKE and AEHR. If this would have been a start of a bull market, like 2003 was, after the 2000-2002 downtrend, I am sure they would have all worked but for right now things still rarely work. But it is obviously clear to me that this market is not moving up or down and that it is just going nowhere. Why then, in God’s name, why would you be wanting to be going long or short stocks.
It is clear from where I sit that stocks are going nowhere and the number one thing that I look for when I am going long stocks is to see if the market averages are rallying on heavier volume. I don’t just want to see one stock move higher, while the rest of the market indexes and the rest of the stocks are going lower. I want to only go long stocks where the whole market is moving higher thus putting the odds incredibly in my favor.
I mean if you just compare the returns from 2003 to this year, it should become fairly obvious that there were about 1000 more stocks making 100% moves by now. I have not had one stock up 100% for me this year. If this contiues to be the case it will be the first time since 1996 that I will not have owned at least one stock that went up at least 100%. If you look at all the beautiful perfect chart patterns with green to max green BOP in 2003 and then try to find any this year you will find your adventure useless. There is nothing nice out there and I can’t see anything coming around the bend any time soon. I have one long that I am long that is very pretty and I see one stock setting up that is very pretty. But back in 2002 before 2003 was coming I know I saw at least 10-20 stocks that were loaded up with green BOP and perfect price and volume patterns. The fact they are not around now is a big enough clue for me that I need to be patient and just exercise waiting for that right time to get back in the market.
For all of you itching for action, you are showing your immaturity and ignorance by trying to go long stocks here. I recently posted a video that showed just how sloppy MPWR was. MPWR was such a recently beloved stock that had many of my newbie subscribers going long despite the fact that I did not go long. I was clueless as to why these people like the stock so much so I made a video on it. After watching the video I hope that some of you now know what an ugly chart looks like. And for those that have already seen the XSI (9 minute video) video you will see there was a major difference between that HOT! chart (which really isn’t even that hot compared to my past big winners from 99 and 03) and the difference between stocks like OPTR, MR, and MPWR.
I know that for most of you the videos will be big help in helping you being able to see exactly what I see and the reason why I pick certain max green filled stocks over some near-CANSLIM long positions. These videos should be very powerful and should be able to show you how easily it is for me to scan through my charts, quickly eliminate the ugly charts, and focus on the powerful charts that are loaded with accumulation and green BOP. This will be a feature that I am sure will help some of you recognize why I love a chart like XSI over a chart like MR or MPWR.
Getting back to this market that is as dead as can be. A driftless market on low volume is an impossible market to trade and the amount of trading that I am seeing out of newbies is quite disturbing. I continue to tell all of you young guys to STOP TRADING, THAT THERE IS NO TREND, AND THAT THERE IS NO VOLUME TO HELP MAKE A LOT OF MONEY ON ANY STOCK THAT DECIDES TO MAKE AN ACTUAL MOVE. The best thing to do right now is nothing. Going long is almost guaranteed to leave you trapped in a falling stock and if you go short right now the chances are high that even if it does work you will be hit with many reversal that are so painful that it will probably scare you out of your position before it ultimately goes lower (GS and BG are both recent examples that are moving lower without me even though I was short these stocks on their intial breaks).
Right now, it is all about protecting capital and that is what I am preaching right now. Be careful out there and wait for un uptrend to resume before getting
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When it comes to making a living in the stock market I have had no problem doing that for the past thriteen years. But all of a sudden this year, this trendless market has made it near impossible to make a lot of money. There are a few mutual funds that are up for the year but the majority of the greatest funds and greatest traders are finding it very difficult to make money in a market that simply does not go anywhere.
Now, while we have had some big winners like PDO, XCO, and DGLY, we have also had some disappointments like BRKR BKE and AEHR. If this would have been a start of a bull market, like 2003 was, after the 2000-2002 downtrend, I am sure they would have all worked but for right now things still rarely work. But it is obviously clear to me that this market is not moving up or down and that it is just going nowhere. Why then, in God’s name, why would you be wanting to be going long or short stocks.
It is clear from where I sit that stocks are going nowhere and the number one thing that I look for when I am going long stocks is to see if the market averages are rallying on heavier volume. I don’t just want to see one stock move higher, while the rest of the market indexes and the rest of the stocks are going lower. I want to only go long stocks where the whole market is moving higher thus putting the odds incredibly in my favor.
I mean if you just compare the returns from 2003 to this year, it should become fairly obvious that there were about 1000 more stocks making 100% moves by now. I have not had one stock up 100% for me this year. If this contiues to be the case it will be the first time since 1996 that I will not have owned at least one stock that went up at least 100%. If you look at all the beautiful perfect chart patterns with green to max green BOP in 2003 and then try to find any this year you will find your adventure useless. There is nothing nice out there and I can’t see anything coming around the bend any time soon. I have one long that I am long that is very pretty and I see one stock setting up that is very pretty. But back in 2002 before 2003 was coming I know I saw at least 10-20 stocks that were loaded up with green BOP and perfect price and volume patterns. The fact they are not around now is a big enough clue for me that I need to be patient and just exercise waiting for that right time to get back in the market.
For all of you itching for action, you are showing your immaturity and ignorance by trying to go long stocks here. I recently posted a video that showed just how sloppy MPWR was. MPWR was such a recently beloved stock that had many of my newbie subscribers going long despite the fact that I did not go long. I was clueless as to why these people like the stock so much so I made a video on it. After watching the video I hope that some of you now know what an ugly chart looks like. And for those that have already seen the XSI (9 minute video) video you will see there was a major difference between that HOT! chart (which really isn’t even that hot compared to my past big winners from 99 and 03) and the difference between stocks like OPTR, MR, and MPWR.
I know that for most of you the videos will be big help in helping you being able to see exactly what I see and the reason why I pick certain max green filled stocks over some near-CANSLIM long positions. These videos should be very powerful and should be able to show you how easily it is for me to scan through my charts, quickly eliminate the ugly charts, and focus on the powerful charts that are loaded with accumulation and green BOP. This will be a feature that I am sure will help some of you recognize why I love a chart like XSI over a chart like MR or MPWR.
Getting back to this market that is as dead as can be. A driftless market on low volume is an impossible market to trade and the amount of trading that I am seeing out of newbies is quite disturbing. I continue to tell all of you young guys to STOP TRADING, THAT THERE IS NO TREND, AND THAT THERE IS NO VOLUME TO HELP MAKE A LOT OF MONEY ON ANY STOCK THAT DECIDES TO MAKE AN ACTUAL MOVE. The best thing to do right now is nothing. Going long is almost guaranteed to leave you trapped in a falling stock and if you go short right now the chances are high that even if it does work you will be hit with many reversal that are so painful that it will probably scare you out of your position before it ultimately goes lower (GS and BG are both recent examples that are moving lower without me even though I was short these stocks on their intial breaks).
Right now, it is all about protecting capital and that is what I am preaching right now. Be careful out there and wait for un uptrend to resume before getting
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