Wednesday, March 30, 2005

The oversold bounce that came.

Doing just as I expected the oversold bounce has shown up and did so on lower volume. If there is not much follow thru to this I think it is safe to say the short side will be upon us after this peters out.

I did find a few longs that looked good enough for me to take either a small position in or will wait for minor pullbacks from some that popped a little too much today: HITK MS DJO ESRX MON UBET. Most are medical and are just now blasting out of solid bases on good volume. The speculative one in the bunch that broke out of a flat base started in Febuary after putting in a rounded base is UBET. Cut losses on all if they close below their today's daily lows.

But, honestly, forget about the longs, for now. The short side is where the money is being made right now and I have a some nice ones tonight.

RECN has broken down again this time below 200 dma another bounce like previous breakdowns make it an excellent add to short position.

BVF ugly selloff in November created a jagged base that has failed this month. With today's pickup in volume along with falling below both key MA (50/200) makes it an excellent short on a pullback up to its MA's.

QSII gave me a bounce today to add a short position after yesterday's breakdown on big volume (took out two weeks of sideways action).

USAK is being chatted about and yet has put in a double top this month along with a high volume smackdown today. With the 17th, 18th, 21st and 29th days reactions this month (late day reversals and ugly candles) any bounce in this high P/E ratio to its industry group stock should be sold.

STNR has had two nasty big breakdowns the past three days and today it rallied to its 50 dma. This stock appears to be topping with those two selloffs coming on some of its biggest volume the past year or so. Since it is now at its new resistance a short looks good.

MHO this housing stock is busted. 11th day this year it has sold off on volume heavier than its 50 dva (day volume avg.). With this recent move down it becomes clear this stock is in sell off mode. A small add-on short here with more put on if it moves to its 50 dma seems like the right move.

USNA looks to be setting up for a fall. I just know charts and this doesn't look right. Needs more confirmation before it is a good short.

That is all for today, i expect the bounce to continue and the serial bottom callers to continue to come out. But unless volume steps in and charts start looking better and we dont have leaders popping up in the drug medical sector then we will be fine. But dont count on that happening. This is just an oversold bounce, for now.

ALOHA

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