Wednesday, August 17, 2005

End-Of-Day Reversal Indicates Distribution; Not Accumulation

If the Nasdaq and Dow were up, how could it be distribution? It is distribution cause the markets ran up, topped out, and near the end of the session closed below the intraday support levels. That in itself might not indicate pure selling. The tell then was the volume. Volume picked up over yesterday. Since it initially should look like accumulation, you have to then look at the intraday tape action. And all the indexes closed in the lower half of their daily trading range. Coming off of all the recent distribution days, this is called churning. Churning is when the markets go nowhere intraday on high volume, after suffering some pure distribution days. This now gives the current market four distribution days in six sessions. This should be all you need to know about current market conditions. We are about to hit bear mode for a little while.

More charts blew up today: PLAB and TALX. This along with all the other blow-up stocks I have mentioned should help solidify your conviction to raise cash, keep longs small, and if you are experienced look for some shorts.

Oil fell 2.80 and people were talking about why the market didnt go up. Hello, the market has been rallying thanks to retail, home builders, and OIL stocks. The oil stocks have been your market leaders. When the market leaders crack -- like oil stocks are doing now -- the market follows. So when oil falls, the market will fall. Just like it rose the past 3 years with rising oil prices.

Markets are not bullish right now, no matter how much you want them to be. Be careful out there.

New Swing Longs: VAS MNTA RGEN SUPX ADST ECOL

Longs Outperforming Market: AIX AEIS LOJN KNDL

New Swing Shorts: KMP SMTC TK HURC

Shorts Outperforming Market: PTC EENC CNTF OMM

Aloha from Maui!

1 comment:

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