Monday, August 08, 2005

Waiting For The FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Nothing has changed today, from Friday. The indexes dropped and volume rolled in lower across the board. Just what you like to see in a normal pullback in an uptrending market.

The first logical support for all the indexes is the 50 day moving average. Since this drop is coming on lighter volume, a nice bounce off that line with a pickup in trade should help give hope that the rally can continue. However, a failure of that average on volume will concur what the recent drops in the leaders (Homebuilders, REITS) have already given--a sell signal. And to be quite honest all of the REITS on daily charts look like short-term crashes. These moves in the past two days, in every stock in the REIT group, are extremely violent to the downside and on heavy volume. Housing slowdown finally??

There is not much more to add to the commentary today. The market drifted lower on light volume, waiting to hear what Mr. Greenspan has to say about inflation, rates, and the economy.

New Swing Longs: MED VC SGRP

Longs Outperforming Market (up 5% or more): BCON!!! MCEL TEC GBND OLGR CPTV ELTK CERS ENTU

New Swing Shorts: SHO ZIPR WCI BMHC and the whole REIT group on low volume bounces to recent breakdowns. Nasty ugly charts everywhere in the REIT group.

Shorts Outperforming Market: INPC ZGEN

ALOHA

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