Thursday, October 12, 2006

Indexes Blast Off On Slightly Lower Volume; Bears Keep Getting Left Behind.

Good earning reports and a pretty tame reading from the Fed's beige book helped stocks explode to the upside, finishing near the best levels of the session. The DOW hit a new record high and the SP 500 hit new five year highs. Not sure what isn't bullish about that.

When all was said and done, the SP 600 led with a 1.9% gain, the Nasdaq followed with a 1.65% gain, the SP 500 rose .95%, and the DJIA rallied .8%. The IBD 100 gained 1.5% on the session, just underperforming the SP 600. However, being near the top, is pretty darn good.

Nasdaq volume was even to slightly lower, depending on where you get your data from. The NYSE finished with volume around 2% lighter than yesterday. Breadth was positive on both exchanges by over a 3-to-1 margin.

Even though volume was lower, the gains still happened. Rather if the gains came via the big boys buying stocks or the bidders bidding the prices to levels that forced shorts to cover, the fact remains that the bulls are still in control and if you were bearish you were wrong.

This market has proven over and over how silly it is to fight the trend. All the predictions and indicators have been wrong. Until prices rollover and join the indicators, there is no reason to think that this rally "should" be over anytime soon.

When you have 188 longs and 156 rise and NONE show signs of a climax top, it is really really really hard to think that this is over.

We don't have any climax runs that signal the end of an advance. When we hit these levels in the DOW back in 2000, tons of stocks were making climax runs. When we topped in May of this year, Gold, metal, and oil stocks were making climax or topping patterns. We simply do NOT have that now.

It is getting pretty late in this rally and I am starting to see some stocks blowup. However, this always happens anyways during earnings season. The question is how many are blowing up? The answer is not many. The other good news is the stocks that I own that are blowing up are doing so after producing some nice gains. If they were blowing up immediately after breaking out, we would be in a much worse situation. That is not happening yet so the trend remains our friend.

If you buy stocks breaking out of proper bases and you cut your losses on the stocks that don't work, you will do fine no matter how much this market keeps going up. You will not miss the boat. If you buy blindly the stocks that have made 20-30% runs after breaking out of a base, you are setting yourself up for some very painful pullbacks and some BIG losses.

It is still very very very negative out there in the world of stock market chatter. That probably means the bulls will keep this momentum train chugging along. We will see if tomorrow is another painful day for the bears on the stock market. Aloha and I will see you at Investors Paradise.

New Swing Longs: OPEN FBNW AYE TRAK OPSW MOS FSH

Adding To Holdings: DIVX SUMT

New Swing Shorts: NONE

Longs Outperforming (non-IBD low vol excluded): CVO-121 XING-45 TYL-43 SYKE-42 IHS-74 STEC-40 IIVI-28 SEIC-27 MWRK-34 CXW-36 MA-40 SOFO-25 FCSE-47 DIVX BONT AHS HEI AOB RSTI CHINA IMKTA EVR BEBE ORB PERY IMA LTM HURN DIOD FORR TDY FTEK HMSY SIMO PSYS ISE BMC HRZ KBAY HCSG DKS SMSC ROG CPAK MPW VOCS DLA BEAS CGX TRAD NSTC DJO PRFT TWGP LMT ISYS ABCB BITS LINTA CPA BOT IDXX ETE WEBX DUCK APLX PT SIMG LWAY DECK OMTR ALXA CVLT AUXL GSTL SUMT WEN MEH ASML CYBS VCP BMRN ALSK CMCSA BMR ROG BDX SCI NU NOC NHP STZ WSH NXL FLEX HB WGA SZE APRO

Shorts Outperforming: ARLP MDG

Cover Shorts Completely: WTI ATPG SPWR

Stocks On Radar Screen: RBC SAY NICE PKE VRGY NIHD TMO AXR RVSN ELE MR BMA ISIS CCBL BWNG MSFT VDSI ATO

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

did you sell AVNC after this sell off...this is down 33% from the high of 6...I know you added to your position a few weeks ago...?

just checking...I want to know how much pain you take on these...or do you lock in profits?

I like a sell at the 9 EMA or 7% from the high?

Thanks

Kelllt

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

Kellt, if you register at Investors Paradise and do a search on my forum you will be able to find the answer there. I believe I posted the answer to your question on the "longs/longs on radar screen" section.