Thursday, October 19, 2006

Stocks Finish With Small Gains On Mixed Volume; It's All About GOOG, Afterhours.

The DJIA finally closed over the 12k mark! Yipee...whatever. Now that that is finally out of the way maybe we can get some peace and quiet over that number from all the financial TV networks. Besides the DJIA hitting that now-famous number, a weak Philly Fed report and a ton of earnings reports could do no harm or good for the market as the market failed to move.

At the close, the SP 600 led with a .42% gain, the Nasdaq and DJIA rallied .16%, and the SP 500 rallied .07%. The IBD 100 didn't lead but it didn't lag either, with a .2% gain.

Volume was lower on the Nasdaq and slightly higher on the NYSE. Breadth was negative on the NYSE by a 5-to-3 margin and negative on the Nasdaq by a 17-to-12 margin. Basically it was a meaningless day with a bit of a negative bias.

How about that GOOG afterhours? That might help the bulls catch some momentum but even if it doesn't there is one lesson to take away from this. It is never wise to be short a stock with EPS and sales growth rising quarter over quarter year over year by 70%.

Now back to the markets. Earnings were the dominate story of the day and will remain that way tomorrow after the GOOG numbers. Today's market showed no leadership whatsoever. The top groups were all in old leaders or just plain lagging sectors. I am not sure if it was because of rotation or just simple bidding up of old laggards for the big boys to unload but one thing is for sure momentum has slowed as the market has gotten overbought.

I still see a market pulling back quite normally. One or two disasters every three days in a portfolio of over 190 stocks is pretty darn good. That tells me that underneath the markets action my stocks are behaving in a normal fashion during a market pullback. If this pullback would be leading to something more severe I am 100% positive I would be cutting stocks left and right. However, everyday, I keep owning more and more stocks with nice chart patterns. The speculative ones are always rough, but the IBD stocks are doing very well, IF YOU BUY RIGHT.

Stocks like LOGI, HRZ, and NVEC show me that great earnings are being well rewarded. This makes me happy. At the same time, I see breakdowns in the SOX, and that worries me that momentum money may not be in the market.

That will make it harder for serious meaningful gains in the short term. A healthy SOX is very positive for momentum traders. When it lags, it usually makes it difficult to produce huge gains. Because as everyone knows the momentum money loves Semiconductor, Internet, and....Biotech stocks. Which leads me to this:

The Biotech sector has always been a home of hot money. If you look at the BTK--X, you will see we are not far away from new yearly and all-time highs. Breaking out to new highs without CNBC or the general market commentators bubbling over this is the greatest story not being told on Wall Street. Just like the AMEX breaking out to new highs in 2003 and the media completely missing it, the Biotech Index is about to breakout to all-time highs (look at your six year weekly chart) and the media is going to miss this too.

In the famous words of the police officers in Wednesday's South Park episode.....nicccceeeee!

Whew, I am so tired. I will see you tomorrow at Investors Paradise. SURFS UP! SURFS REALLY UP!!!

New Swing Longs: TSTC QSII

New Swing Speculative Longs: ISIS NYMX

New Swing Shorts: NONE

Longs Up (low vol non-IBD excluded: HRZ-27 CVO-125 AKAM-205 CHINA-34 TYL-47 XING-27 INWK-37 CTCM-33 STEC-25 MA-44 CLEC-59 FTEK EVR UAHC HCSG TRAD PSPT JST TWGP RICK KBAY DIOD TDY APLX LTM PERY ININ CAB FSH ROG MPW CPA ABCB DECK HMSY PRFT IMKTA GSTL PCBK BITS DIVX AYE BMC VARI BONT RVSB ETE FELE LINTA HURN SIMG NSTC AWH MVSN WEBX HEI ALXA CBF OMTR MNG MDRX APN REGN OSIP IDEV GISX FLEX VCP PNW RAH ITC ASML NU KFT VVI IONA BULK MSLV APRO

Shorts Up: NONE

Stocks On Radar Screen: LOGI MDV JSDA

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jason,

Have you looked at the components of the BTK? I only see CRA, GILD and VRTX even close to new highs Hard to see that the index is really that solid.

John Haon

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

It isn't that the components look strong or weak. It is the fact that the BTK is so close to a new high yet NOBODY is talking about it.

And you didn't see any of these???

NRPH ACOR DSCO MDV PANC SQNM BIOM MRX FMTI VNDA XNPT MEDX ILMN REGN OMRI NABI SVNT MNKD IDEV BMRN NUVO STEM...and that is just half of the pretty charts I see on my TC 2007 list of 197 Biotech stocks.

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

Btw, my name is Joshua.

Joshua Hayes.

I am not Jason.

Anonymous said...

Joshua,

I apologize for using the wrong name. I had Jason on the brain.

Anonymous said...

How about that DIVX? I picked up some shares in the afternoon and 30 minutes later zooom zooom zooooom!

I'll be adding to my position if it breaks out to new highs next week.

What do you think?