Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Another Bullish Day Equals Another Great Day For Our Longs

Today was yet another day where the market did not do much but our longs crushed it. This time it was our recent solar stock purchases. This continues a very bullish pattern of where everything I buy continues to move higher. Once again, tonight there are four new longs and zero full sells. This has been a recurring theme and is a theme of any bullish market. Higher volume or not.

Even though we still have zero institutional support on the indexes, it is clear that in this stock picking market there are a lot of stocks they are accumulating. The majority are in the energy industries, obviously. It might not be easy to buy stocks correct but it sure has not been difficult knowing where to put a lot of money. The gains in two solar stocks today that I am heavily long is more proof that as long as you know how to pick the best stocks, you can destroy the stock market. Remember, all those people from that were telling me to go long stocks like GS, LEH, MS. I don't know about you but I told you then that you did NOT have to buy the exact low to make a CRAPLOAD of money in the stock market. My recent longs are proving that.

For those that still think that you have to buy the exact low, this should now prove to you that those talking heads on CNBC are just that. Talking heads.

The market was even better by my book as leading, small, and tech stocks all did well today. Not only that but I have bases setting up EVERYWHERE in technology and leading stocks. Take that situation with all these solar and oil stocks running and you have a market that has somewhere to rotate when the oil stocks do climax and top. If that happens, these tech stocks are setting up to be PERFECT candidates for money to move into you. One thing is definitely for sure, I see a LOT of stocks that were in nasty downtrends trying to bottom on a TON of volume with green BOP on a lot of these charts. Take that with all our leading stocks and stocks that we are long that are KILLING IT (remember, if this bull last a few months, THIS IS JUST THE START!!!! all you DGLY sellers) and you have a very fun low volume market rally. I don't like it and don't think it will hold, unless we get more volume. But, heck, I will take ANYTHING I can get.

The lack of perfect charts and volume however will be what keeps me from getting bullish on the market. Just looking at stocks like AAPL or BIDU shows that the selloff on huge distribution has been followed by absolutely ZERO accumulation, just like the indexes. The big stocks are moving higher on no volume, the market is moving higher on no volume, but the true leaders (the 15 that I am VERY LONG and the 60 longs that are flying high but are small positions) are moving higher on huge volume. These 75 stocks that we have in our portfolios all look wonderful. A few might be close to cut losses but nothing is really hurting when it fails. ADEP and BRKR are the only two that hurt a little and stocks like GFA OTEX DGLY SOL and CSIQ more than make up for that.

The key here is to just go with the trend, until it ends. I see so many anticipating a top. I suggest you do do that. But also, prepare for a possibility that a low volume rally continues and when volume does return it could possibly be mutual, hedge, and pension funds JUMPING back in the market so they do not lose performance. This big money chasing gains so they can try to show outperformance to the general market, along with the NYSE short interest at 13 days to cover, could lead to some HUGE!!!! gains unlike anything I have seen since 2003. With that bullish possibility made possible THANKS TO THE GLOBAL economy, it is hard to be too bearish here. Also watching your new longs where you got GREAT fills rocket 20% to 25% doesn't hurt either. I am still riding the trend higher but I am losing some bullish luster. However, I do not know what the future holds and can only listen to my charts. My charts say we are going higher. But without volume I am not sure how that is going to happen.

Not only do we not have volume but NOW the crowd is starting to get quite bullish. Oh, how quickly we can turn on a dime in this great country. One day we are extremely bearish, the next day everything thinks EVERYTHING is going to be PERFECT once a radical left gets into the office. The truth is it is better to be neutral and go with the trend. The short-term trends are up, the longer-term are down. That is it. That is all you got to know to make HUGE money. The reasons why or how is NEVER IMPORTANT. It is a freaking waste of good ocean or surf time. The ocean and surfing is priority 2-9 on my list of things. Stocks is #10 with my gf and remaining family at #1. Never forget that. I think I will be 50 years old before I fully embrace this lifestyle. I just don't want to look like Cramer, Rev, or Kass by the time I hit that age.

For all the wasted time researching the reasons why something happened, your time would be better off spent updating your CANSLIM watchlist and other leading stock scans. Besides that, studying EVERY SINGLE ONE OF MY PAST BIG WINNERS IS A MUST!! You MUST study every one!!!! You need to see that the exact same patterns show up over-and-over-and-over. There might be 20 one year and only 2 the next but there will always be one. We had 3-4 last year and already have had 4 start and only 1 stick. You all know what that one is. If you don't, you really should try stepping up and trying at least a month of my silver service. I guarantee you SOMETHING will make you a LOT of money and NOTHING will EVER break your bank.

My biggest problem with going long heavily on this day and any day forward, if we keep rising without a pullback, is that the sentiment gauges are starting to show complacency. I warned you that if I saw the put/call fall below .70 that I would get a bit nervous about buying stocks and being bullish. That happened today as it came in at .69. The next sentiment indicator is the VIX. This stupid index has fallen to a 2008 low yesterday, which means that the crowd is more complacent now (err...bullish) than at any point in 2008. There are a lot of believers now and that is reflected in the VIX being around the 17 area. These are two clear indexes that indicate to me the crowd is starting to embrace this rally. So, for now, I will enjoy it too, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a pullback sometime soon.

The key with this is how volume will be on the pullback. Will it still be low? If it is that will be bullish as smart money investors will probably then realize the lows might have been seen and that could spur a ton of sidelined money into the market. Or if we pullback on heavy volume, we could breakdown and set new lows. EITHER WAY, I AM READY!! Bring it on Mr. Market. Nothing it can throw my way will ever surprise me.

I am about ready to passout as I am still very tired after my HORRIBLE endoscopy procedure (I woke up in the middle of it and it was horrible!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!). I don't know if it is normal to wake up in the middle of these things but if I knew that was going to happen, there is NO WAY IN HELL I WOULD HAVE DONE THAT. The pain, closterphobia, and gagging was SO HORRIBLE that it took 5 nurses to hold me down so I would not pull the tube out. It was a HELLISH moment of my life and when I woke up a second time I was crying. VERY ODD and scary. I am not sure if that is normal or what the hell happened but at least we do have good news. Nothing showed up. They did take some biopsies. So we will see what that shows. But I still wonder if that was normal??? Oh well. Who cares, it is over, THANK GOD!

Aloha and I will see you in the chat room, where I am NEVER under sedation and always alive and kicking. Not even 10 police officers could keep me down. Now a taser......sure. I have seen enough episodes of cops. LOL, I know that NO ONE escapes the taser. LOLOLOLOL. ALOOOOOHA!!!

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