Monday, November 24, 2008

No Suprises Here As Another Typical Lower Volume Short-Covering Holiday Session Ends With The Market Putting In Huge Gains

Wow. What a great two days we have had. Or so it seems from the outside to the neophyte. But to the experienced professional it was clear what we had here was your typical low volume short covering pre-Thanksgiving rally.

I might have said it here this Friday or not but I told my chat room that I expected us to rally all week long, this week, with volume contracting every day. So far we have started that right. We will see if this continues tomorrow with another up session on lower volume. As this rally goes along and gets closer to the 50 day moving average, we should see it put it smaller and smaller gains. If this happens, not only would I not be surprised at all but I will be preparing to take this market back to the short side if it does fail at either the key 50 or 200 day moving average.

The only real surprise would either be us closing lower for the week, which seems unlikely after today--but in this market anything is possible. The other surprise would completely be if we continued to gather steam on this rally and were soon taking out the 50 day moving average on strong volume. However, I would not count on that with the lack of leaders in this market.

About the only real good new to report about today's rally is that bank stocks participated, unlike on Friday. I honestly believe we must see banks stocks move higher along with us finding new leadership for us to build on to any real gains. Without the banks finding a bottom or leading stocks showing up, there is no way I can get excited and call a bottom.

And like I have said before, the fact that volume is lower on Thursday, Friday, and Monday compared to either the biggest volume day in September or October tells us a lot about this actually being a "capitulation" bottom. Let me give all of you a hint that will save yourself from looking real stupid: before you make any opinions on ANY move in the market, first look at the volume. I hate people calling bottoms or tops when either volume or the actual price action does not support the case for that comment at all. There is no greater way to look foolish than to try to call bottoms OVER AND OVER AND OVER.

There is one person who is not around much in the Platinum chatroom, and thus not surprisingly, is not in tune with the market and thus has attempted to call a bottom TWICE BEFORE THIS YEAR. That person can debate me on that but luckily we have chat transcripts and he is not on often so it will not be hard to prove that this is correct. The point being, by saying this, he has made himself look either foolish when it comes to the CLEAR history of the market or he is just so carefree he could care less. Either way, imo, it is very bad for business and your bottom line.

The bottom line tonight is: don't call this a bottom or a capitulation. There is no fear as evidenced by a put/call not hitting new highs, the VIX not hitting new intraday highs, and the investors intelligence survey showing more bulls and less bears than in October when the market was higher. This is one INSANE market and normal measurements of placing "values" (lies) on stocks is OUT THE WINDOW. What was once considered a "low" P/E is going to be in the future, more than likely, the "new high" P/E ratio.

Times are changing folks. Your lucky I can still find money making opportunities either with our ANCI long up 43% or our SDA short down (up for us) down 79%. No matter what this market does I am here to protect you from financial disaster and once (or if we ever) we see another bull market again you can be sure 300%, 500%, and 1000% gainers will be the outcome of our perfect setups that will appear once all the AMATEURS on and off wall-street are gone. I will be around. I just hope our market is to. I think I worry too much but nowadays I think that is a legitimate way to feel. Especially when you do this for a living and have a track record like mine.

Wall Street might not respect me but dang it if you care about your future I sure hope you do. I will save you from the lies of Wall Street. WS is full of crooks and I know how to beat them by being HONEST. It is a concept they should try. But that would ensure that they would lose money every year and be gone from the street.

Most of these crooks couldn't make an honest penny if their life depended on it. If not for commissions and up-front fees they would be BROKE and jobless. They aren't traders/investors, they are sellers of their own soul. Shame be on everyone that lost anyone money. You should be ashamed of yourself and pay back some of the losses you put your clients through. But that would be a moral stretch for those secular nuts on the Street. So don't expect that to happen.

Sorry for the editorial but after watching another bailout, I felt I deserved to express my opinion. That is if you can still do that in this country.

Part one and part two full size versions available on the Gold forums. Free small version of part one available below:

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