Sunday, March 08, 2009

Stocks End The Week On Another Weak Note, Despite A Last Hour Surge Into The Close; Shorts Are Making A LOT Of Money In This Market--It Feels Good But

Market Speculator is going to do the commentary this weekend since he was closer to the market than I was this week. I will however add some important stock market "notes" below. These notes are important key points that I want everyone to think about while we "search (yeah right!) for a bottom."

When Josh asked me to write a few comments about the market I didn't realize he'd sum up ALL THE FACTS below in his notes below! Throughout much of the week the action was dominated by the actions of short-sellers covering and re-shorting. It appeared as if all the large institutional players were simply selling into any strength we saw all week long. The market needs institutional support to move higher, but we simply are seeing these institutional players as net sellers rather than net buyers of this market.

There is absolutely no need for us to be trying to pick a bottom here. Our charts will lead us to the stocks that will lead this market out from a bottom. Unfortunately, we have really do not have ANY stocks at this point that provide this market with the type of leadership to move us higher. We will find these stocks when we do finally reach a short-term or even "the" bottom. Until then, we simply wait and take our opportunities on the short side.

The number one concern we must be aware of is the EXPLOSION in the monetary base of the United States!


If this does not scare you, what will scare you is that never before in Human history has any Government EVER has increased its money supply like the Federal Reserve and US Treasury. One piece of the inflation equation is the supply of money. The more money you have floating in the system the more expensive goods and services become. Unfortunately, in the near future we may begin to feel the consequences of our Federal Reserve, Congress, President, and Treasury's actions.

We'll continue to stay on top of this market and extract profits from this terrible market and cut our losses when it is prudent to do so. Capital preservation is the #1 game at the moment. We will get a new bull market at some point and we'll be ready to take advantage!

Market Speculator

Notes from Joshua Hayes:

--There were only 2 stocks making new 52-week highs (one was too thin to think of...what was the other one? RGR (Sturm Ruger). Why do you think that company is hitting a new high? BTW, while only 2 stocks made a new high, there were 1,199 stocks making a new low. This is not bullish and is ONLY bearish.

--A little good news is that the Nasdaq is developing some great RS to the SP-500 since the November lows and while the NYSE fell 7% this week the IBD 100 only fell 4.8%. This makes it possible for a possible over-sold bounce in the future. However, I would wait for a series of higher highs and higher lows before trying to play this market on the long side.

--IPOs in the past year make up 1.1% of the total stocks available on the NYSE. This is, by FAR, an all-time low. When the stock market is in an uptrend it is common to see anywhere between 4% to 7% of all issues being IPOs. The recent high happened on March 16, 2005 when 9.3% of all stocks on the NYSE were new issues in the past year. Pretty impressive! In 1999, I can honestly say it must have been around 15-20% of all stocks on the Nasdaq. So clearly we are in depressing waters since new issues are the lifeblood of growth in the stock market. The fewer IPOs the lower the gains the market will produce. 1.1% is a horrible number and if it gets below 1% it will be very upsetting.

--If this is a capitulation bottom, where is all the volume? Where is the HUGE intraday reversal? No, my friends, Friday was not a capitulation bottom.

--Right now the AAII is showing the most bears its survey has ever shown with average investors coming in at 18% bullish and 70% bearish. Bearishness is very thick, in the public arena. As for the investment newsletter writers, the same thing can be said. Bulls come in at 29.7% while bearish newsletter writers are 44% bearish. With the crowd so bearish, it must be showing up in the volatility gauges that we use, ALONG WITH PRICE AND VOLUME ACTION IN THE INDEXES, right? Wrong!

--Back on March 17, 2008 friendly (ROFLMBO) people like Sandy Wright, my accountant, and Jim Cramer were telling me to buy LEH, BSC, GS, WFC, C, BAC, and other "cheap" stocks that I was "too stupid to realize they were bargains." Since none of these people could read a chart to save their lives, I tried to figure out why they would want to go long here when, to me, CLEARLY, the market was possibly beginning to really top out and start a potential nasty bear market. It became obvious to me it was simply greed and the fact that the market was very fearful and they were all trying to be cute and catch a big move. It failed. The put/call on that date was a whopping 1.41! When the November lows came for the market in late 2008, it didn't look right, even though the VIX hit 90! Why? The put/call was still no where near 1.41. I believe it hit about 1.2 and that was it. Right now, the put/call is .93. Does this .93 put/call show the same amount of fear as the 1.41 day? Not even close. So how can this be a bottom? Let's look at the VIX first, before we answer that.

--The VIX today is a high 49 very close to the magical 50-60 range that used to indicate a bottom. That was until those November lows. In November, the VIX hit 89.53, intraday, which was the highest intraday reading since the 1987 crash. With the VIX hitting new highs it hasn't seen in over 20 years the market must be indicating enough fear in the trading to be at a low right? Not so fast. Remember, the put/call was only 1.25 at its highest and that was not higher than the 1.41 in March. Therefore, the VIX and put/call did not confirm a bottom in November just like it didn't confirm one in March.

--The NYSE, the SP 600, the SP 500, the Russell 2000, the IBD 100, the DJIA, and the IBD 85-85 all have the worst accumulation/distribution you can have with E. The only index without an E is the Nasdaq.

--The NYSE short-interest ratio is at 8.69 which is much healthier than the 17.99 it displayed right before the swoon from October to November. This is a bright spot, along with the healthy level of bearishness with the overall public, for a possible bottom. However, before you go out trying to call a bottom with anything I have listed today in my "notes," don't forget the most important ingredient in this market dish is price and volume of leading stocks and the market.

--How many beautiful max green BOP filled, heavy accumulation with low distribution filled, nice and tight green charts are there out there right now? I have the scans that find them. I can tell you. About two to three. Two to three! That's it! I should have at least two hands full of "hot" stocks starting to setup or near completing a setup, before I actually get confident in calling a bottom.

--Not only will a handful or two of "hot" stocks be required, but we MUST see leading (CANSLIM quality) stocks in leading industries setting up and breaking out or at least leading the market higher, before I ever rely on any of the indicators I spoke of above before going heavily long the market.

--The most important thing to look for a bottom, however, is the simple price and volume of the general market. When the market starts selling off on BELOW average volume (the past week EVERY DOWN DAY WAS EITHER A NASTY SELL OFF OR A DISTRIBUTION DAY) and then hits the lows and reverses on strong volume, which is then followed by another up day and then within the next 3-10 days have a very high volume accumulation day (volume needs to be higher than the day before), then and only then can we look for a bottom. If you have those three up-sessions (PLEASE, study the 2003 FTD I believe on March 17, 2003) within 4 to 11 sessions, have "hot and beautiful" green chart patterns setting up in proper chart patterns, have CANSLIM stocks moving higher or setting up in proper bases ready to breakout, have a put/call near 1.41, have a VIX near 90, and there are more bears than bulls in the two key surveys then you know we have a bottom...or at least have the potential for a real bottom. Any "potential bottom" anyone calls out there on CNBC or in the WSJ is just noise, unless everything lines up. Just remember, the most important part is the actual index and the price and volume action of that index. The put/call, the VIX, the surveys, the opinions, and anything else technicians/contrarians use to try to ID bottoms are useless, UNLESS THE PRICE AND VOLUME ACTION IN THE INDEXES AND LEADING STOCKS ARE MOVING HIGHER.

Aloha and I will be back to the "normal" routine on Monday when our Platinum subscriber Todd goes home. As subscribers know I still came in the chat room, updated the forums fully, and updated the longs and shorts pages every day, while basically on a vacation. There aren't many people that will work harder FOR YOU than me. I love you all (minus that jerk I just kicked out of my website) and hope you continue to make us much money as I am in this horrible economic environment. I HATE SOCIALISM and pray for the day when the stock market can return to normal.

top longs/(shorts) with TOTAL returns making me money TODAY: ANCI 55% (BOH 36% LLL 39% AMX 55% THG 18% CEO 38% RDK 38% GGB 68% PLCE 26% OKE 56% CFR 19% CBU 25% MOS 54% AAPL 47% WABC 15% CYT 79% GTIV 47% POT 58% RIMM 63% FSYS 44% SPG 68%)


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