Friday, May 22, 2009

Indexes End In The Red With A Push Off The Lows While Volume Eases Across the Board

From the onset the picture looked bleak for stocks as selling appeared to be slightly higher on the NASDAQ but lower on the NYSE. Selling pressure picked up just after 10am EST as the hot money was moving out of stocks. Interestingly enough money was pouring out of treasuries along with stocks suggesting traders weren't chasing after treasuries. Money was certainly moving into gold and gold related stocks. During the final our of trading we did find support off the lows showing signs the market still has some life left in it. Given the action earlier in the trading session the push off the lows simply confirmed my neutrality on this market.

Gold, Treasuries, and the Dollar are all troubling signs. With Gold moving above 950, Treasurie Yields racing higher and the dollar moving lower is spelling trouble. All 3 items are related and are quite troublesome to watch. The higher the yields on treasury bonds the more costly ALL Government programs become. Utlimately, this burden lies on the US Taxpayer who is already feeling the pinch from the current economic climate. The safe haven is gold and silver as these metals are seen to have intrinsic value. The move in gold will continue as the United States and other Global Central Banks print more fiat currency. Rather than let the market course correct itself we are delaying the natural process a free market provides.

An encouraging sign from the market was the IBD indexes didn't sell off on higher trade and outperformed the major indexes showing signs of strength. Not all is great, the IBD indexes did fall more than 1% and steep price declines are never welcomed. However, like the major indexes the IBD indexes found support intraday and finished well off the lows. A positive development for the market.

At the moment we appear to be in limbo. The AAII investor sentiment survey showed bears up to 45% while bulls slipped to 33%. This suggests that the crowd swung hard to the bears side in a matter of a week. I may remind everyone the AAII Investors Sentiment survey tends to be volatile in nature. It should only be used as a secondary indicator and should have investment decisions directly derived from this data. Nonetheless, with fear growing and the indexes failing to follow through to the downside there may be light at the end of this tunnel.

Other positive note for the market was that New Highs outpaced New Lows by a margin of 4 to 1. Have we got the leadership to take us forward is the biggest question that has not been answered. We are quite long in the tooth from the follow-through day and we are experiencing a stall. It is up to leading stocks to carry us forward and we are in need of them.

Keep your eye on the ball!

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