I had a wonderful weekend enjoy this beautiful island of Maui. I don't plan on being here for too many more years and whenever weekends like this come along I AM going to enjoy them. To not would be damn foolish.
I work over 12 hours every day making sure that you are making the money you see below in our current longs and to do that I need my down time. This weekend, despite all the fun I had, I got all my work done for subscribers. However, those of you that come here to see what I have to say this weekend will only be greeted with this: it is a bull market you know. That is about all I can say that hasn't been said ad-naseum. Market Speculator has echoed my thoughts on this page all week and most of you are in tune with the market trends. That is great news.
However, if you continue to face problems in the stock market, then that means you are doing something wrong. If you are having problems making consistent money, do not have any set rules, and/or can not seem to hit any home runs, you are not alone. Many people have these issues but at BigWaveTrading.com the rules we advocate come directly from the rules that IBD has put out for everyone called CANSLIM. For those of us that know how to use this methodology the market has not been as difficult as the talking schmucks on TV make it sound.
The most important thing to remember is that they DO NOT have YOUR best interest in mind. The ONLY person who has YOUR best interest in mind is YOU. That means that if YOU DO NOT know how to make the big money on YOUR own in the stock market you can pretty much guarantee NOBODY is going to make it for YOU. I am a big advocate of running your own money. The only time you should not is if you have NO TIME AT ALL. If you have time, you should be running YOUR OWN money no matter how much you don't like it.
The world has changed and Americas best days are behind it thanks to the decline in morals, the entitlement society, and the get-even way of life where everything must be "fair" for everyone. This is very close to COMPLETELY KILLING the entrepreneurial spirit of America. The good news for those of us with some money is that we can get the hell out of here and move to Asia where those nations are EMBRACING those that can create wealth for their societies. Countries like China realize that the rich create jobs for the poor and help give the poor a higher quality of life. I don't know what the HELL HAS HAPPENED with the country I am from but I am darn near close to writing this country off. Unless we turn around I don't see how we are EVER going to have a NON-inflationary rally where real wealth is created instead of printed paper money.
I am bullish right now because I follow trends. However, even though I am bullish on the market for now I still have some key questions. Why are my CANSLIM stocks not setting up in quieter bases? Why do I STILL!! not have any "perfect/hot" setups in my speculative longs like I have in EVERY MEANINGFUL rally I have EVER been a part of? These are very important questions because without another round of breakouts after a consolidation pattern, I am pretty sure I am not going to get my "perfect/hot" setups. Truth is when they don't show up the rallies don't last long. I am very skeptical a real bottom has shown up.
Don't forget also that just because the 50 DMA has crossed above the 200 DMA on the Nasdaq that the all-is-clear signal has sounded. Instead, the 50 must cross an UPTRENDING 200 DMA for it to be automatically bullish. Since that is not the case now with the 200, we will need to see prices move along, pullback to the 50 dma, and then have prices rally again. This should then put the 200 DMA into an uptrend and if the market pulls back and test that line then AND ONLY THEN will we be in a TRUE bull market. Without my "perfect/hot" setups and the overall market indexes in the proper pattern with the moving averages, there is simply no reason to think that this is nothing but a bear market rally.
What also makes me think this is a bear market rally? The idiots at the government keep saying the "turn has come." Really assholes? Really? You are the same MORONS that missed the whole 2008 collapse. The last time I checked not one damn analyst expected the market to be higher. Yeah, sure, I trust you guys now! Sure!
Nah, instead, I think I'll take my chances with my charts. As you can see below they appear to be working and that is a good thing. The problem is that unless I focus on CANSLIM longs only, it is really a crap-shoot and it is difficult to guess which long is going to go up near 100% in a short amount of time. It used to be easy to tell based on the "hotness" of the chart. But nowadays I can't find any "hot/perfect' charts so a lot of stocks are making moves that simply have no pattern to them. Sometimes really nice chart patterns work, sometimes they do not. Then sometimes ugly breakouts work and then they don't.
I still honestly believe that this is the hardest market environment ever and this is coming based on past experience. If this was a real bottom, I am pretty sure I would be holding a few longs up over 100% and more than likely one or two of those kind of stocks would have perfect chart patterns. Right now, it seems like fantasy, that these stocks will ever show up again. As you can see in my 'past big winners' they showed up EVERY YEAR in multiple places over-and-over in bull market trends. Then, even in some bear markets, you could find a few. Those hot chart patterns just don't show up anymore, for now. I have a big feeling this is due to the quality of market participants involved in the year 2009 compared to the market participants that were involved in 1996.
Things have changed and change is HORRIBLE! This "change" has led to a very choppy, wild, and to be honest not that much fun of a market environment. I am used to making HUGE gains on hot charts and that used to be a lot of fun. Now I find I have to work my ass off just to barely beat the market. To do that I have to focus on CANSLIM stocks. While nothing is wrong with that, it was the CANSLIM stocks mixed with the "HOTTIES" like LMLP in 99 or HIL in 03 that really allowed me those huge gains of the past. Without that speculative splender I just don't know if we are going to see those kind of gains ever again IN THIS COUNTRY.
I am pretty sure my future lies somewhere in China. Take a look at this chart and see if that doesn't sound like a BRILLIANT idea. Remember everyone, for those of you who "poo-poo" history that no matter what you want to "feel" or "believe" in the truth is that ENTITLEMENT SOCIETIES DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE! WAKE UP AMERICA. YOU ARE ALMOST DEAD!!
PS: Don't mistake INFLATION or HYPER-INFLATION with a new bull market. Did you see Zimbabwe's stock market the past five years? You should see how amazing it did!!!! Do you think that stock market rally was good or bad for the country? Do you see how a rising stock market is bad when it is on the back of EVIL inflation that is controlled by our government? I sure hope you do. We need more people to wake the hell up to what we are trying to create in the name of "fairness." Fairness gives you Zimbabwe. Once again I ask you if the rally in Zimbabwe was "awesome" or if it was a tell to how sad and depressing this once great African nation has become. Is this what we want?
The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (the ZSE) is the best performing stock exchange in the world, the key Zimbabwe Industrials Index up some 595% since the beginning of the year and 12,000% over twelve months. And yet, the country is crumbling (4/10/07). Ever since President Mugabe's disastrous land-reform campaign (an entire article in itself), the country's farming, tourism, and gold sectors have collapsed. Unemployment is said to be near 80%.
God! Isn't socialism wonderful. :( :( :(
I don't think so. Sometimes a rising stock market is NOT bullish and is instead telling "look out the S is about to hit the fan on the inflation front." It makes me wonder if that is the kind of rally we are in now. It appears that if it wasn't I would be making more money and more "perfect" charts would be stetting up and breaking out from pattern that I have been accustomed to that produces huge gains. Maybe this next consolidation phase the market is under will unleash it.
A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largess from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years.
Great nations rise and fall. The people go from bondage to spiritual truth, to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency, from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependence, from dependence back again to bondage.
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