Thursday, May 16, 2013
The Market hits the breaks Ends Lower
The morning did not get off to a great start with disappointing economic data hitting the market. Weak jobless claims and a Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed how disappointing the economy continues to be. By mid-day it appeared the market simply didn’t care too much about the weak economic data. Just as new highs were being reached sellers took to the market pushing the market to the lows of the session. While the market didn’t close on the lows there was certainly a feeling this could turn into something more sinister. One day doesn’t change the market and this uptrend remains in place. Last night we showed you how bullish the II survey respondents have become and today we got a read on the AAII and NAAIM. Neither survey was at an extreme in either direction. AAII survey bulls were less 40% and bears under 30%. NAAIM survey showed investment managers positioned bullishly at 84% with bears almost non-existent. Neutral appears to be the place to be in both surveys. Outside of the II survey there isn’t any evidence of exuberance from market participants. Now, CNBC guests are another story including their hosts. Stick with price. TSLA this morning offered a nice place for the second time in three days to take some profits. The stock may be topping in the near term. We certainly aren’t going to call a top in the stock, but after this kind of run it is prudent to lock in gains. No one knows where TSLA will end up in the long run, but how many cars have Consumer Reports given a 99 rating to? If you get a chance to see the Model S or Roadster they are good looking cars. There are a few Fed officials who have expressed the central bank will need to begin to taper its purchases of mortgage and treasury securities. Should they or shouldn’t they really isn’t much of a concern for us as we simply follow our pricing signals. Guessing on the direction of the market isn’t a sound strategy. Stick with Big Wave Trading to navigate the market waters. Have a great weekend.