Volume Disappears as Stocks Recoup Majority of Monday Losses

In fine QE fashion stocks rebound in very light trade. Positive housing data did help the market even though growth came from multi-family homes. Industrial production grew at a faster pace than expected. Today was the first time we had economic data come in better than expected. Sellers disappeared paving the way for the market to float higher throughout the day. Volume disappeared falling more than 20% on the NYSE and 15% on the NASDAQ falling right in line with QE trading. Our uptrend remains in place for now and we remain ever confident in our systematic approach. Gold and silver rebounded as well as many other commodities after Monday’s big decline. The decline in gold was a 7 sigma move! Either metal was unable to capture majority of losses like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ. I for one would love to see commodities in general move lower. Lower prices of things we need like food and energy can only help those who don’t own assets benefiting from the Fed’s ZIRP and QE. Lower prices for commodities continue to be highly probable and who can’t smile at lower prices at the pump? Earnings after the bell failed to inspire buyers. INTC closed the after-hours session higher by .71%. However, INTC was up more than 3% after reporting earnings. YHOO pushed higher initially after reporting earnings but the stock fell 4% by the end of the after-hours session. CRUS released earnings disappointing the street finishing lower by almost 11%. We’ll see what tomorrow brings for these stocks and the rest of the market. Tomorrow we’ll get the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige book. There are few speeches tomorrow by Fed members and likely get a few headlines. Outside of the Beige book it is a relatively quiet day in terms of economic news. Before the market open we’ll get earnings from BAC and we’ll see if the stock follows C or GS. BAC has been a leader in this rally and has been an important piece to this rally. If this market can build upon today’s gains it will bode well to recoup all of Monday’s losses. Of course, we’ll follow our strategy and follow price. Cut those losses.

AAPL rebounds while the Dow breaks Winning Streak

Stocks gain little traction on the day despite AAPL moving more than 4% on the day. BA weighed on the Dow Jones Industrial average as more problems with its 787 plague the company. Volume was lower across the board, but nearly 10% lower on the NASDAQ. Volume continues to be non-existent as the market consolidates. We believe it to be a good thing at this point in time. The last hour of trading saw the major averages pull back from the highs of the session despite GS move after reporting earnings in the morning. Even with BAC moving higher by 2% the XLF could only close with a gain worth a penny. This market continues to work off the overbought conditions keeping our uptrend in place. However, we do need to see this market push into higher territory soon. GS blew the doors off its earnings this morning. JPM missed their revenue mark, but was still able to close one penny off its 52 week highs. Given the action from GS, JPM, and BAC the XLF could only eek out a one penny gain. The ETF still appears to be moving higher and we would expect it to do so if we continue to see new highs from financials. BAC, PNC, and C are set to report earnings Thursday morning and will be the talk of CNBC. The slew of economic data this morning did very little to move the markets very much. Even with the NAHB survey didn’t derail the markets. For the first time in 8 months homebuilder sentiment did not see gains. After 8 months you would think sentiment would calm down and it did. Homebuilding stocks appear to be holding up well despite the lack of good news from sentiment. Do not forget the incredible run these stocks have been on and know your proper exit points. The market still appears to be moving higher with all the moves we are seeing from individual stock names. To protect ourselves from being wrong we have a proper exit strategy and so should you.

AAPL Suffers as C and BAC Enjoy Big Moves

A wild day on Wall Street as stocks stage an intraday reversal only to give back gains at the close. Once again the market was ready to fall apart and we were able to find buyers at the lows. AAPL tumbled hard while BAC and C raced higher. The market liked these two gigantic banks were cutting costs by eliminating jobs. Volume rose across the board giving the NASDAQ a day of distribution and stall days for the S&P 500. At one point it appeared the Dow would put in a follow-through day (and NASDAQ a distribution day), but ended the day in stalling action. We are still without a confirmed uptrend and wild intraday action. In addition, we still have failing breakouts. Adding all of this up cash is very much king. All eyes will be on the ECB tomorrow morning. Since the last ECB meeting the economic landscape in Europe has not improved, but worsen. Expectations is for the central bank to leave rates steady as borrowing costs across the continent have dramatically been reduced. More importantly, it will be how the market reacts to the central banks comments. Given the movement off the recent lows the European stock markets are expecting the central bank to produce something for them to continue their trend. After the ECB announcement we’ll get initial jobless claims and a look into Friday’s job report. Let the fun begin from CNBC and their over-analyzing the data and blaming Sandy. Market action is where our attention will be focused. There is something sinister going on with AAPL. Perhaps the rumor of a dramatic reduction in demand or some fund was forced to dump was the cause of the sell-off. To be honest, we do not care the reason for the decline and what we know was today the stock sold off in heavy volume. The stock’s trend is down and it appears there isn’t much that will stop this stock from taking out the November 16th lows. AAPL is a beloved stock and owned by many institutions and if the selling continues the exits will become very crowded. Do not be a hero. The NASDAQ remains below its 200 day and 50 day with the S&P 500 continuing to find resistance at its 50 day moving average. Until we see these indexes move above these moving averages with conviction and without a follow-through day the long side is not safe. Cash is king and we continue to tread very carefully in this market.

NASDAQ Breaks Six Day Losing Streak; C Jumps more than 5% on Earnings

The market finally bounces from oversold conditions as volume ends mixed. Volume rose on the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges, but SPY and QQQ volume remained light. Retail sales jumped more than expected helping set the tone early on. Sellers got the upper hand on the NASDAQ, but were quickly turned away as stocks zoomed higher into the close. Price gains were solid and although we did not see the overwhelming volume associated with institutions supporting the market. Today was day one of a new attempted rally on the NASDAQ lead by banks. Banks lead the market today on the back of Citbank’s earnings with the stock gaining 5.5% during the market session. WFC continues to suffer from its earnings report, but other big banks continue to act well ahead of earnings. GS, BAC, and JPM continue to act well and are poised to move higher. When the Federal Reserve will be buying mortgage securities from Banks it is hard to fathom the Federal Reserve will pay anything but the highest price possible. So far, the only group to benefit from QE Forever will be the big money center banks selling mortgage securities back to the Federal Reserve. We were bound to bounce from the selling we saw from last week. The NASDAQ was down 6 days straight and it is quite normal to see the market rebound. There is no way to know whether or not this will turn into a new uptrend or a one day wonder. We’ll need to see confirmation of a move higher before we get excited over one day’s action. We remain in neutral mode and until price action and leading stocks say anything different we’ll remain neutral. There is just 22 days left to the election is over and it cannot come soon enough. As soon as the election ends the fiscal cliff topic will be one in focus and one the market will grapple with and hopefully produce a trend. Today concluded day one of an attempted rally and we’ll be waiting for confirmation one way or another.