A hiccup at the Federal Reserve led the central bank to release their latest meeting minutes at 9am EST. Despite several members favoring tapering the money printing operation by mid-year the market took off. Leading the charge was the NASDAQ, but on the Russell 3000 it was the most heavily shorted stocks boosting stock market gains. The Dow and S&P 500 closed at historic highs while the NASDAQ was only able to muster multi-year new highs. We are a ways off from the all-time highs set in the dot com era. Price direction has been spot on here even faced with two slight sell-offs. Stick with the trend and for now it remains up! It is clear the market favors more QE than less. Last Friday’s job report shows this economy just can’t muster enough jobs. Will the QE program work remains to be seen. Again, we have put faith in the Federal Reserve will be able to allocate capital properly to ignite the economy. At least for now a few members within the Fed are keen on curtailing the program. For now our stock market likes it giving us an uptrend to work with and when/how this will end will be something to see. Technology stocks led the way today as seen by the NASDAQ Composite gaining 1.83%. Russell 2000 was right on the NASDAQ’s heels gaining 1.8%. Small cap stocks had been lagging as of late, but finally saw a bit of reprieve from underperformance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finally lagged as we have seen the Blue Chip index lead over the past few sessions. It is good to see the NASDAQ and Small Cap stocks lead and we’ll like it even more if they continue to stand in front. Earnings season will ramp higher with $JPM and $WFC reporting earnings on Friday. Financial stocks have been the bread winner when it has come to earnings growth for the S&P 500. Bank earnings are particularly difficult due to how much or little the bank decides to release its loan loss reserves. Of course it is a big game and more importantly price will tell us everything we need to know. However, if bank earnings can’t sustain its recent pace the S&P 500 will need to find earnings growth from another group. We continue to operate in an uptrend and cut our laggards as we move forward.

Dow and S&P 500 End Higher for the Fourth Consecutive Day

A positive reading from the ADP employment survey helped fuel stocks early pushing the Dow further into all-time high territory. BAC helped push the Dow as the stock aims to hit new highs on strong volume. By mid-day the markets were off their highs awaiting the Federal Reserve’s Beige book. The Federal Reserve noted growth in the economy due to gains in housing. Initially pushing stocks off their lows it appeared the Beige Book would send the stocks into new highs on the day. The rally would stall out just after 3pm. A late day small push off the lows by the bulls kept the major indexes from closing on their lows. It was good to see the market avoid distribution just after hitting new highs. GOOG and AAPL were drags on the NASDAQ today. AAPL continues to act poorly while GOOG pulls back after two big sessions. Both companies are fighting over the smart phone universe and both stocks are heading in different directions. A key point in both stocks is their relative strength. Focus on stocks with high relative strength and in the case of GOOG and AAPL is demonstrates the importance of relative strength. A few IPOs continue to act well. Our Platinum members were alerted to EOPN Monday morning to its potential. When IPOs act well you can bet the market is healthy. We’d love to see stocks like EOPN and EVER continue their moves higher. There is a lot of chatter about how far this market rally can go. Does it really matter where it ends when you focus on your exits? Sure, we’d love for this uptrend to never end and we go up every day. However, we know this is simply will not occur. No one knows how far or how long this will last. Therefore, we must have exits we know maximize our potential to take the maximum gain possible from the market. Otherwise, we’ll be leaving gains on the table and we strong dislike leaving gains on the table. Stick to your game plan. Let your winners fly and cut those losses.

GOOG and AMZN lead the Market higher Despite Light Volume

Stocks moved higher despite the Shanghai dropping 3.65% as the country tries to solve its real estate issues. Intraday volatility continued, but stocks were able to find their footing after the lunch hour. Lows were set just after noon time and did not look back. Volume throughout the day ran well under Friday’s levels. We aren’t surprised volume was running lower as we have seen Mondays have been low volume days. GOOG and AMZN lead the NASDAQ along with YHOO while AAPL continued to lag. Today’s price action is bullish, but we still remain in Neutral mode and looking for a follow-through day. AAPL continues to remain weak and we are not surprised one bit as the stock has been in a downtrend for quite some time. We can point to many different reasons for the stock’s decline. Does it matter what reason we pick? Not one bit. At this point you will have many trying to pick a bottom in the stock and will fail miserably. The stock does have a pivotal point of 435 and a move above that would be a buy signal. We can’t predict moves and can only react to how the stock moves. GOOG broke out to new highs on big volume today showing the big cap technology stock continues to see accumulation. Perhaps GOOG Glass will be a big product break through adding to GOOG’s bottom line or not. The action in this stock while not ideal is quite bullish. At this point, you are chasing the stock if you are thinking of buying it here. If we get more stocks acting like this we’ll see this market push to new highs. Tomorrow’s economic release will be from the ISM Non-Manufacturing. Later in the week we’ll get the Fed’s beige book. While these will provide an excuse for the market to move and we’ll be ready to react. Short-term Trends TICKER ST TREND TREND CHANGE DATE CLOSE % SPY DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 3/4/2013 152.92 0.53% IWM DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 3/4/2013 91.13 0.26% QQQ DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 3/4/2013 67.68 0.45% USO DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 3/4/2013 32.40 -1.04% UNG UPTREND NO CHANGE 3/4/2013 19.45 1.99% GLD DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 3/4/2013 152.30 -0.09% SLV DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 3/4/2013 27.60 -0.07% DBC DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 3/4/2013 26.84 -0.37% FXY UPTREND NO CHANGE 3/4/2013 104.86 0.10% FXE DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 3/4/2013 129.13 -0.03% TLT UPTREND NO CHANGE 3/4/2013 118.9 -0.53%

NASDAQ Stalls as Volume Finishes Higher

NASDAQ Composite continues to lag behind the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500. Volume rose across the board, but remained below average. The NASDAQ notched a stall day and although it failed to register a day of distribution. Stalling days are nothing new and all it will take is for the NASDAQ to eclipse today’s high. Two star industries on the day were XLF and XHB as both groups appear to be ready to run higher again potentially in a blow off move. End of day action took the market off its highs, but the S&P 500 and Dow were able to escape too much damage. AAPL weighed on the NASDAQ once again as the stock continues to prove it is a laggard. One question would be is the stock the canary in the coal mine? There is no question AAPL’s products are great, but is the action in the stock foreshadowing something in the overall market? Or is it simply a laggard stock and should be completely ignored? Time will tell where this stock will end up. However, we know the stock is in a downtrend and is all we need to know. Wednesday we’ll see the market react to the State of the Union. President Obama’s speech is pretty much known as he will revert to ideas he trumped on the campaign trail. More taxes and more spending (disguised as “investments”) will be proposed. The President has a way of delivering a great speech and this should not be any different. Democrats will praise the president while Republicans will detest it. After the speech all eyes in the political world will pay attention to the Sequester on March 1st. A few disappoints in earnings this morning with KORS and INVN reversing gains. While KORS was a viable gap its inability to hold onto its opening price certainly puts a blemish on the stock. INVN was just terrible. In the after-hours session we had a few leading stocks have a tough time. RAX for one has been a stalwart for this market. Unfortunately, the stock fell 10% in the after-hours session. PCYC a thin name jumped 2% after reporting earnings. A stock to watch for a potential gap move at tomorrow’s open. NTGR and BWLD were on the negative side as well with both stocks falling hard. Not a pretty picture for the majority of earnings with only a few bright spots this afternoon. Regardless of your opinion of the market we remain in an uptrend. This may or may not change tomorrow, but if it does we are prepared.

AAPL Drives Stocks Higher at the Close as Volume Slips

The Bank of England and European Central Bank kicked off the day with holding their rates steady. Neither rate announcement spurred much movement the reaction by the EURO certainly kicked off selling in the US markets sending the US markets to their lows of the session. Selling intensified throughout the morning as the EURUSD dove. Buyers were able to step into the market and were able to push the market back to the mid-point of the session. AAPL at the closed pushed the market back to opening prices as the company announced a review of its cash position. Volume ended lower on the session despite the buying at mid-day and AAPLs late day push. We remain in an uptrend and despite what you may see intra-day we’ll remain disciplined. AAPL has been quite the stock since the lows of 2009. It has been blamed for holding back the NASDAQ from hitting new highs. However, today it single handedly lifted the NASDAQ from its lows. Even in the last 15 minutes of the session it appeared the NASDAQ was ready to head back to the lows of the day when news hit regarding AAPL’s review of its cash. The stock did go ex today with its current dividend and with the news today it wouldn’t surprise me if a combination of a buyback and special dividend will be announced. Sentiment continues to run high amongst the bull camp. AAII bull respondents did slip from 48 to 43 with bears jumping to 29%. II Bulls hit the week at 55% (59% 5 year high) and bears coming in the week at 21% (16% 5 year low). NAAIM investment manager survey saw leverage come off the books to 95% long. Sentiment remains high here, but it can remain high for quite some time. Our uptrend remains in place and we have yet to see any major days of distribution. The same cannot be said for a few European indexes. The DAX, FTSE MIB, and IBEX all are below their 50 day moving averages with big time distribution. Europe may be cracking, but the US appears to be holding steady. Until we get signals of a market correction we’ll remain long. TICKER ST TREND CHANGE DATE CLOSE % SPY UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 150.96 -0.13% IWM UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 90.16 -0.33% QQQ UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 67.30 0.09% USO UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 34.68 -1.03% UNG DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 18.54 -4.24% GLD DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 161.84 -0.34% SLV DOWNTREND CHANGE 2/7/2013 30.46 -1.14% DBC UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 28.44 -0.39% FXY DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 104.71 -0.13% FXE UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 132.92 -0.90% TLT DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/7/2013 116.93 -0.22% SLV changed trend today. Yes central banks have their printing presses in hyper drive, but we’ll follow our trend following signals.

NASDAQ Lags as S&P 500 Ends Flat as Volume Slides; European Woes continue

Overnight the Nikkei jumped 3.8% as the country remains hell bent on trashing their currency. Europe resumed moving lower as the DAX fell more than 80 points. On this side of the pond futures were lower on the moves in Europe. Just before lunch time rumors of a special dividend helped send the stock higher dragging the NASDAQ along with it. Just after noon time fortunes for the market reversed and the market headed back to the lows of the session. It appeared as if sellers were going to rule the day. At the close, buyers were able to get the market back to breakeven. Our uptrend remains. Tomorrow we’ll get a rate announcement from the ECB followed by Draghi’s press conference. The EURUSD has been on a tear as of late as the US and Japan intend to print their respective currencies to oblivion. At this point the ECB can only cut rates as it cannot monetize debt. Draghi’s comments has moved the markets before and tomorrow shouldn’t be any different from the past. Which direction shall the market respond is anyone’s guess, but given our current uptrend we are going in long. There is some bright spots out there including DDD and SSYS. Banks continue to act well lead by BAC, GS, JPM, and one of our new longs for tonight. The action in EXPE left a bit to be desired and it appears more and more stocks reacting to earnings aren’t able to hold their breakouts. AMZN is one while having a rich PE has been performing well until the most recent earnings report. Another blemish is the two leading stock indexes we follow remain underperforming the overall market. This can change in a hurry, but we are keeping an eye on our leaders. Tomorrow morning will hold some fireworks and we are looking forward to seeing how our stocks react. Cut those losses short. Short-term trends: TICKER ST TREND CHANGE DATE CLOSE % SPY UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/6/2013 151.16 0.07% IWM UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/6/2013 90.46 0.42% QQQ UPTREND CHANGE 2/6/2013 67.24 -0.33% USO UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/6/2013 35.04 0.03% UNG DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/6/2013 19.36 0.94% GLD DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/6/2013 162.39 0.27% SLV UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/6/2013 30.81 0.16% DBC UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/6/2013 28.55 -0.14% FXY DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/6/2013 104.85 0.07% FXE UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/6/2013 134.13 -0.41% TLT DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/6/2013 115.98 0.82% QQQ changed back to an uptrend. This is due to the short-term nature of signals generating more signals.

Stocks Rebound from Monday’s Losses on Higher Volume

The market quickly erased majority of Monday’s losses in one session. Volume rose across the board from Monday’s level. Monday’s have been for quite some time light volume days and higher volume kicking in today was not a surprise. Banks led the way while Small caps lagged along with the Dow. One day does not make a new trend and why we weren’t quick to jump off the bandwagon yesterday. Volume on the NASDAQ has been above average both days this week and we’ll need to see some price movement with this volume. We remain in an uptrend and will continue to act accordingly. Interestingly enough the QQQs have flashed a new Downtrend in our short-term trend following signal. It could very well be false, but a signal is a signal. IWM and SPY still remain in their uptrends for now. However, the FXY continues to fall as the Yen weakens considerably. It has been quite some time since we have been witness to this type of a collapse of a currency’s value in quite some time. If you have a process born from rigorous testing you follow it religiously. Stick to the plan and execute! Tomorrow we will not have any major economic releases. Today we did get January’s ISM non-manufacturing reading. Expectations were for a reading of 55 and the print was 55.2. The market rallied on the news of beating expectations by .2! December’s reading was revised lower to 55.7. New Orders declined from last month’s pace leading a few to believe the index will be heading lower this month. Bottom line the market liked the number and pushed higher. This week we’ll certainly need to see last week’s high taken out if volume continues to remain above average. Remember, to cut your losses! Short-term Trends: TICKER ST TREND TREND CHANGE DATE CLOSE % SPY UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/5/2013 151.05 1.01% IWM UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/5/2013 90.08 0.90% QQQ DOWNTREND CHANGE 2/5/2013 67.46 1.47% USO UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/5/2013 35.03 0.72% UNG DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/5/2013 19.18 2.73% GLD DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/5/2013 161.96 -0.02% SLV UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/5/2013 30.76 0.23% DBC UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/5/2013 28.59 0.39% FXY DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/5/2013 104.78 -1.37% FXE UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/5/2013 134.68 0.46% TLT DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/5/2013 117.02 -0.89%

AAPL rebounds while the Dow breaks Winning Streak

Stocks gain little traction on the day despite AAPL moving more than 4% on the day. BA weighed on the Dow Jones Industrial average as more problems with its 787 plague the company. Volume was lower across the board, but nearly 10% lower on the NASDAQ. Volume continues to be non-existent as the market consolidates. We believe it to be a good thing at this point in time. The last hour of trading saw the major averages pull back from the highs of the session despite GS move after reporting earnings in the morning. Even with BAC moving higher by 2% the XLF could only close with a gain worth a penny. This market continues to work off the overbought conditions keeping our uptrend in place. However, we do need to see this market push into higher territory soon. GS blew the doors off its earnings this morning. JPM missed their revenue mark, but was still able to close one penny off its 52 week highs. Given the action from GS, JPM, and BAC the XLF could only eek out a one penny gain. The ETF still appears to be moving higher and we would expect it to do so if we continue to see new highs from financials. BAC, PNC, and C are set to report earnings Thursday morning and will be the talk of CNBC. The slew of economic data this morning did very little to move the markets very much. Even with the NAHB survey didn’t derail the markets. For the first time in 8 months homebuilder sentiment did not see gains. After 8 months you would think sentiment would calm down and it did. Homebuilding stocks appear to be holding up well despite the lack of good news from sentiment. Do not forget the incredible run these stocks have been on and know your proper exit points. The market still appears to be moving higher with all the moves we are seeing from individual stock names. To protect ourselves from being wrong we have a proper exit strategy and so should you.

DELL Lifts on Buyout Rumor as AAPL sinks Volume ends Mixed

A very quiet day as volume on the NYSE runs very light below Friday’s level. AAPL, RIMM and DELL shares supported the higher volume on the NASDAQ, but were unable to push the NASDAQ into the green. AAPL was able to close above $500, but it continues to come under selling pressure. The DELL news helped the NASDAQ and the rest of the market when it jumped above $12 a share. All in all today was a quiet day on the NYSE. The NASDAQ did see higher volume notching a day of distribution, but with DELL’s move helped remove the sting a distribution day would give. We can argue about the headwinds existing for the market, but for now the uptrend remains in play. Tomorrow we will get quite a bit of economic news to hit the market at 8:30. We have the following: Empire Manufacturing, Retail Sales, and PPI. It is anyone’s guess to how these figures will move the market, but they will likely move it. At least we can blame the Fiscal Cliff or any move the market will make. There will be a lot made of the retail figures due to the holiday season and how Black Friday may or may not have pulled sales into November rather than December. Boiling it down it is all noise and the market action is all we care about. Leading stocks acted well today for the most part. We continue to see decent action amongst the leaders. One leader LULU was hit in after-hours trading after lower revenue guidance. In after-hours trading the stock is off more than 7%. XXIA continues to act well push higher by almost 9%. The right side of this pattern didn’t have much volume, but we continue to see positive price action in the stock. We have a few other stocks we were looking at that are close to breaking out or have. You’ll have to check out our forums tonight to get the names. Action here certainly supports higher prices, but we keep on waiting to see this market push higher. Have a plan and execute the plan. Make this a great week!

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a BUY condition across the board. This past week was further confirmation on the current strong technical condition of the overall market. While it is not perfect and we can argue about volume on the days we do rally, it is what it is and that is a strong current rally favoring all sectors and market cap size across the board. While this rally is incredibly strong right now with barely any selling able to move the market anything lower than .96% on the Nasdaq, when we do pullback, there are plenty of items out there that could be better. To start off with we hear a lot of chatter about the low VIX. While the VIX is low indeed it is still quite a bit away from the lows it was able to set in 2007 below 9. So to say it is extremely low is a bit of a stretch. However, we do realize that even though individual stocks are creating amazing patterns it sure is not like the amazing patterns we saw in 2003 when the VIX was around the 35 levels. That market had fear in it. This market is very complacent. But it is not an extreme. Also we note that cyclical stocks with dividends are doing better than growth stocks here on a Relative Strength basis. After four years of a market without a 20% pullback it is safe to say we are long in the tooth and if a final run is occurring it would historically match up with cyclical stocks leading and not growth. We can not predict when the market rally will end, and we certainly will place zero capital on that guess, but we do know that these stocks lead near the end of a long cycle. However, it is QEinfinity, the world is printing, and China is growing like mad with exports up 16% in the most recent report. Another item we hear talk of is the Investors Intelligence bull/bear survey. Currently the survey shows 51% are bulls compared to 23% that say they are bullish. That is in stark contrast to the powerful rally that started in 2003 when there were around 40% bulls and 55% bears. Once again, not a market full of fear that produces a fresh new bull market. While this is all interesting it is, once again, something you can place no capital on. It is just food for thought, in case everyone thinks that we are in for another 4 years of straight up prices. However, sadly, once again, we might, knowing the insane sociopaths that are in control of the economy and country. The one last talking point we have heard is that mutual fund inflows were the highest in 13 years right when the market topped back in March 2000. In contrast, mutual fund outflows peaked and continued leading into the 2003 rally. Once again, food for thought, but it is not actionable. Why? Simple, let’s say funds decide to put all that money to work and rally the market 25% before the top. Do you want to miss that 25% rise before “a possible” peak? Of course not. This is why all that matters right now is price. You set your buy stops and execute them when price breakouts of a trading range or a key moving average. It is that simple. You cut your losses if it does not work and you ride the trend until it ends or a trailing stop is hit. The key to this market is to not think. Just follow price. When you start running into bad luck, cut back on your trading more and more and more and more until things start working again. Once that happens, then begin to increase size. When you get the “perfect” or “best” or “most opportune” signal (as Jesse Livermore would say picking up a bag of money in the corner just sitting there) then you press. If you have not gotten that signal yet, maybe the market will consolidate and then breakout higher producing that signal. If this is going to be a real rally then we should rally into March, historically speaking. If this rally has left you behind, you still have plenty of time, if it is real. If it is not, you will be thankful you did not break your rules and chase price. In saying that, a lot of traders that missed YCS and DXJ have been waiting for a pullback. They are still waiting. Have a great weekend everyone. Aloha. Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain – Date of Signal NTE long – 121% – 8/17/12 CSU long – 61% – 9/4/12 VRNM short – 50% – 4/10/12 HEES long – 47% – 9/4/12 CAMP long – 44% – 4/26/12 ASTM short – 31% – 7/17/12 FLT long – 27% – 9/6/12 POWR long – 27% – 12/11/12 V long – 25% – 8/31/12

Dollar Falls and Stocks Shake-off Intraday Sell-Off

Shaking off a late morning sell-off the market was able to rebound closing near the highs of the session as volume pushed higher on the NYSE, but flat on the NASDAQ. The EURO raced higher after comments from the ECB rate announcement pushing down the dollar index. AAPL was the catalyst for both moves in the morning and late afternoon as the stock continues to move sideways after its most recent decline. The NASDAQ and Small Caps hit new highs for the uptrend a good sign for the market in the short-term at least. Our uptrend continues to play out and barring any price destruction should continue on its merry way. Gold and silver rebounded today after their most recent sell-off. Despite the Federal Reserve signaling a possible end to QE forever the metals have been able to rebound somewhat. Crude oil once again moved higher while the rest of the commodity space remained relatively flat. The inflation trade in stocks and commodities still lives. Sentiment has crept back to lofty levels for the market, but not at the highs previously seen. The AAII bull sentiment figure jumped to 46.45. This past year the high for the index hit 51.64 back in February of 2012. The market was still able to rally higher and set a new high for the rally showing sentiment is not a reliable indicator for the market. Bears came in at 26.92 well above the 52 week low of 17.18 set back January of last year. Neither sentiment readings are at extremes, but we are close. The Investors Intelligence survey showed bulls back above 50% at 51%, but no near the high of 58% set earlier. Given the recent action and the lack of ultra-bullishness it appears this market has some room to run. Tomorrow we’ll get a reading on prices on imports and exports followed by the Treasury Budget announcement at 2pm. The deficit is expected to come in at -1 billion dollars. Many took income in the month of January rather than in 2013 due to the fiscal cliff. It will be interesting to see how much money the Treasury will be able to net. I’d think the estimates are off and likely sway when the debt ceiling debate would begin. We can only speculate at this point, but something to keep an eye on. As we ride into the weekend, we expect to see this market hit new highs and stand ready to act as necessary. Cut those losses.

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

The Big Wave Trading Model returned to a BUY signal across the board, following the resolve of the Fiscal Cliff. The gap up was powerful and very strong. The strength was broad, volume was well above average, and breakouts were everywhere. On top of that, the price action on Thursday and Friday has been tight and many stocks that did not breakout on Wednesday broke out on Thursday and Friday. While we were only 25% long, holding about 74% cash, the positions we were long did very well and we are happy with those positions. However, being under-invested before a big move is always disappointing. The good news is that plenty of stocks are building very sound to excellent bases and if this rally has legs we should continue to see leading stocks breakout over the next few weeks. The important line in the sand to watch is the gap higher. We want to see the gap hold here. If stocks pullback we will be more than happy as that will allow more and more bases to be built in leading stocks. Subsequent rallies would make excellent areas to add to our current positions. Despite the bullish price action, it still is not an easy market for trend following stock pickers that make EOD decisions. The gap up and down nature of the market makes it difficult to get good fills and the previous fake moves of 2011 and 2012 still haunt the market today. The best remedy for this is to either be a slave to your computer screen from 930am EST to 400pm EST or to set buy stops at key pivot points in stocks that you want to get long. These stops ensure you get long as soon as the stock breaks out. In today’s market if you don’t get a breakout right when it breaks out you run the risk of missing the move as they are coming in one day more often than they ever have in my short 15+ years of investing. It will be key for stocks this week to hold the gap higher. If the gap higher fails that more than likely means that we can expect more chop. However, I would not expect this to happen. Too many leading stocks are breaking out and some leading stocks have gone straight up off the recent November lows. This is a sign of a healthy uptrend. While we would rather have seen this explosive move off the November lows to give us the best entries in individual stocks, it is what it is. The Shanghai Composite was your leading index and clue that something was afoot. Its powerful start came on December 5th and its extremely powerful follow-through on December 14th. If you take a look at that index, that is exactly what you want to see. It is a near mirror image of the start of the March 2003 bull market. These two charts (the 2003 Nasdaq bottom and 2012 Shanghai Composite) bottoms should be studied voraciously as that is what perfect stock market bottoms after a long downtrend look like. Simply beautiful. Aloha and have a wonderful and profitable week! Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Purchase NTE long – 113% – 8/17/12 CSU long – 58% – 9/4/12 VRNM short – 57% – 4/10/12 CAMP long – 54% – 4/26/12 HEES long – 43% – 9/4/12 POWR long – 31% – 12/11/12 ASTM short – 28% – 7/17/12

Stocks Rally to Close out the Week despite Lower than Expected Job Growth

The market was able to shake off a disappointing jobs figure on Friday morning failing to print 200,000 jobs. AAPL was another loser on the day slipping more than 2% weighing down the NASDAQ while the S&P lead by banks and energy was able to push higher. Banks continue to do well with the Federal Reserve buying their mortgage portfolios. For the week it was a monster move for stocks and a monster fall for the VIX. This market does not have any fear and traders are positioned for this market to continue to push higher. Small caps continue to dominate hitting new highs and until banks and small caps turn there is not a reason for this market not to push higher. It was a stellar week for plenty of stocks and there appears to be more gains had. However, since the 11/16 move off the lows (when we were close, but not close to a fiscal cliff deal) we have come a long ways. This is not to say we can’t continue to march along, but there are some things saying this market needs to digest some gains. The number of stocks above their 20 day and 50 day moving averages at least suggest a shorter term pull back. However, the number of stocks above their 200 day says something different. Price will dictate our actions, but it is always prudent to be on your toes. The VIX has been decimated with fear fleeing the market. VIX is simply an indicator of market position via options. At this point in time the VIX is simply telling us traders are positioned for an upside move. Albeit a crowded trade at this point, but big bets are being made for an upside move after the fiscal cliff deal. Unfortunately for the market crowded trades can work well in the short-term, but not so over the long haul. Short-term this market appears to have legs and will look for it to move higher. Another debt ceiling showdown coupled with warnings from Rating Agencies of a possible downgrade will be another treat dealt to us by DC. We would not be in this mess if DC only spent what it took in. Make it a great weekend!

VIX Jumps 10% as Stocks Pullback in Light Trade

Small caps were able to close in the green, but the major indices were unable to hold their early morning gains. At the end of the day there were some fireworks with sellers showing up and pushing the Dow, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ to the lows of the session. Perhaps the lighter volume on the day allowed sellers to have their way. Overall, a pullback on lighter volume is a good thing for this current uptrend. We’d rather not see the Dow fall 100 points. If we were seeing heavy volume selling we’d be concerned with distribution piling up and additional small caps were relatively unharmed during the late day sell off. One thing to note was the more than 11% move in the VIX showing a bit of fear coming into the market. Today was not a terrible day for the markets as it continues to keep us on our toes. The market simply cannot go higher in a straight line and pullbacks are to be expected. In our new world of forever QE it does give us pause when we can fall with relatively ease. We have moved quite a bit since last Friday and a pullback is to be expected. At the moment, it appears sellers did not bring volume to the table, but any further big price selling will concern us. It was nice to see the continued leadership from Small Cap stocks as well as the NASDAQ outperforming the S&P 500. We could have done without the end of day shenanigans. The VIX has been relatively tame since the November turn around on 11/16. We have not seen the fear index above 20 since June of this year. We do have quadruple witching this Friday as well as GDP set to be reported tomorrow morning. Quadruple witching weeks tend to see a big jump in volume as well as volatility. Without distribution piling up it is tough at this point to say today was a turning point for this market rally. Some signs of concern like ISRG getting obliterated by a Citron report and HLF getting hit by Ackman, but overall action was “okay.” A few stocks like KORS ended well off their highs, but this is normal for our current environment. However, any further weakness in leadership will be concerning as for now we are cautiously long. Tomorrow morning we’ll get our weekly jobless claims as well as 3rd quarter GDP expected to print 2.8% growth. Sadly, this is mostly due to government spending borrowed dollars. Again, price will be everything. Know your exits.

Hope Continues for a Fiscal Deal, but Stocks Fall in Mixed Trade

Just the headline of a meeting between Boehner and Obama helped push the market off the lows. There is desperation for a deal for the fiscal cliff. The market for the second straight day rolled over from the morning highs. Despite doubling down on QE infinity stocks have been unable to crest above last week’s high. Volume on the NASDAQ rose giving the index another day of distribution while volume fell on the NYSE. Price action is not strong at the moment and given the lack of thrust from recent breakouts this uptrend we have been in is at risk for failing. Cash remains king. The fiscal cliff is such an interesting beast. On 11/16 we were close to getting a deal and yet four weeks later we are no nearer a decision than we were on 11/16. Our government spends roughly 25% of GDP by borrowing forty cents for every dollar spent. It is a nice thing to say we aren’t taxing the rich enough, but taxes only get us so far maybe 1/10th of the way. While we have been able to implement tax cuts we have never been able to cut spending. It is time to take our medicine and begin down the path of sustainability. This recent uptrend is still without a true follow-through day and even though we could get one tomorrow it isn’t likely it will produce tremendous gains. Days 3-7 are the sweet spot for a confirmation of a new uptrend. The lack of follow-through day simply underscores how weak this uptrend has been. Where are the stocks zooming out of bases? Sure we have had some breakouts, but they aren’t screaming higher like we normally see in a sustainable uptrend. As of now, we do not have the strength needed to continue this rally. This action is the main reason despite our model switching to a BUY signal two days ago that not one position was placed off of this signal. There was simply too much cross-currents and bad/confusing action. Our model has obviously returned to the NEUTRAL mode. No harm, no foul, this time around. Know your exits and if the situation changes be ready to adapt! Have a great weekend.

Stocks Stage a Big Rally, but Hit Some Resistance

The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 found very little resistance at last week’s high as the NASDAQ backed away from its high of last week. Volume was strong, but the market could not find enough buyers to clinch a true follow-through day. We continue to operate without a follow-through day, but with the NASDAQ and the rest of the indexes above their respective 50 day moving averages we are back in buy mode. The move at the end of the day does bring a bit of caution and only did a few buyers at the end of the day save the rally. Tomorrow’s reaction to the FOMC rate announcement and Bernanke’s press conference will tell us a great deal about where this market is headed. We are in buy mode despite the sluggish end of day action and will look for this trend to continue. We simply cannot ignore the move in small caps today with the index lagging only the NASDAQ today. Breaking out of a small consolidation area the group pushed higher and continues to look quite solid. It is very hard to ignore the relatively strength displayed by the group and we are going with it. Focusing in on price action IWM looks poised to continue its move higher. Of course, we have an exit plan and if this move fails we’ll simply exit and move on. There is no need to guess what may or may not happen here, but for now small caps look poised to lead this market higher. AAPL continues to be the talk of the town, but it too found resistance at its highs. GOOG did manage to get above its 50 day moving average during the trading session. However, by the close the stock was unable to close above it. Bad news for the stock as it is doing a lot of work well below the mid-point of its most recent sell-off. On the bright side of things CRM was able to punch through and breakout on very strong volume. We’ll see once again if this breakout can hold. QIHU, SSYS, DDD continue to struggle after breaking out. Tomorrow brings on the Fed and the potential for a fiscal deal. It will be fun watching the market dance to the sound of Ben Bernanke’s voice.

AAPL Suffers as C and BAC Enjoy Big Moves

A wild day on Wall Street as stocks stage an intraday reversal only to give back gains at the close. Once again the market was ready to fall apart and we were able to find buyers at the lows. AAPL tumbled hard while BAC and C raced higher. The market liked these two gigantic banks were cutting costs by eliminating jobs. Volume rose across the board giving the NASDAQ a day of distribution and stall days for the S&P 500. At one point it appeared the Dow would put in a follow-through day (and NASDAQ a distribution day), but ended the day in stalling action. We are still without a confirmed uptrend and wild intraday action. In addition, we still have failing breakouts. Adding all of this up cash is very much king. All eyes will be on the ECB tomorrow morning. Since the last ECB meeting the economic landscape in Europe has not improved, but worsen. Expectations is for the central bank to leave rates steady as borrowing costs across the continent have dramatically been reduced. More importantly, it will be how the market reacts to the central banks comments. Given the movement off the recent lows the European stock markets are expecting the central bank to produce something for them to continue their trend. After the ECB announcement we’ll get initial jobless claims and a look into Friday’s job report. Let the fun begin from CNBC and their over-analyzing the data and blaming Sandy. Market action is where our attention will be focused. There is something sinister going on with AAPL. Perhaps the rumor of a dramatic reduction in demand or some fund was forced to dump was the cause of the sell-off. To be honest, we do not care the reason for the decline and what we know was today the stock sold off in heavy volume. The stock’s trend is down and it appears there isn’t much that will stop this stock from taking out the November 16th lows. AAPL is a beloved stock and owned by many institutions and if the selling continues the exits will become very crowded. Do not be a hero. The NASDAQ remains below its 200 day and 50 day with the S&P 500 continuing to find resistance at its 50 day moving average. Until we see these indexes move above these moving averages with conviction and without a follow-through day the long side is not safe. Cash is king and we continue to tread very carefully in this market.

NYSE Posts Second Day of Distribution as Reid Signals Congress Still Can’t Get its Act Together

For the second day in a row the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and the NYSE Composite posted another day of distribution. It is an ominous sign for a newly developed rally to post back to back days of distribution after a follow-through day. Positive economic news from Durable goods to housing did very little to help this market today. Sellers jumped aboard just before the 10am hour, but were held back by another intraday rally like Monday’s session. It appeared as if the NASDAQ and others were ready to bolt to higher ground before Harry Reid and Mitch McConnel spoke about the Fiscal Cliff talks. The market couldn’t rebound and ended near the lows of the session as volume jumped. This rally has a negative tint to it and the next move on volume will spell out the direction we’ll head in the short-term. Friday’s supposed follow-through day kicked off a new rally and the one thing you do not want to see is distribution within the first few days after the follow-through day. Unfortunately for this new rally is we have had back-to-back days of distribution. Monday’s intraday action was bullish, but still put the NYSE composite, S&P 500, and Dow into distribution camp. Today’s action was clear distribution and is not questionable. Distribution following a new confirmed market rally spells trouble for the rally attempt. I’d expect to see this rally fail shortly and we’ll be on the hunt for a new uptrend. If we move higher on strong move we’ll change our tune, but for now distribution is spelling trouble for this rally attempt. Financials rolled over today with the XLF rejected at its 50 day moving average. Retail (XRT) still is having trouble with its 50 day moving average despite the media’s attention on how good Black Friday sales were. Oil and Gas was the biggest drag on the S&P 500 followed by financials. A sign the market is on shaky ground is from the only sector higher on the session being the Utilities. If we don’t see the market improve here look for utilities to show strength while the rest of the market heads lower. If you jumped into the market yesterday or today remember to have an exit strategy. It will mean the difference when it comes down to your returns! Buying is the easy part.

Markets Resume Trading after Sandy Ripped Through the East Coast

Two days of trading were lost due to the storm, but the aftermath for many remains a daunting task. We at Big Wave Trading hope those who were affected by Sandy return to a sense of normalcy soon. The Russell 2000 led all market gains today, but was the lone bright spot in the market. AAPL’s management shake up weighed heavily on the stock as it dragged down the technology heavy NASDAQ with it. At the open stocks enjoyed a lift, but it was a negative Chicago PMI figure that soured the mood of the market. PMI figures showed a contraction for the first time since late 2008 as many continue to fear the fiscal cliff. Big Wave Trading is still under a sell signal and today’s market did very little to help reverse our course of action. Price and volume are not favorable here and until it improves we’ll continue to operate under our sell signal. All eyes will be on the ADP and jobless claims report tomorrow. Friday’s non-farm payroll figure is set to be released and it will be an important to Romney and Obama. Gary Johnson the Libertarian candidate can too use this to show under freedom and his leadership we would be able to build a more stable system. For Romney and Obama it will be a fight over the same system we have in place today. Of course, the mainstream media will do its best to spin it positively for Obama while Fox News will do the same for Romney. In the end, we care about our leading stocks and market direction. As the market goes we shall go too. The leading sectors today were the utilities, consumer goods, and financials. Oil and gas along with Technology stocks were the groups weighing on the S&P 500. Financials continue to be the stocks leading this market and we aren’t surprised. How can you not do well when you have a buyer willing to pay top dollar for a junk asset? Continue to keep an eye out for emerging winners because this market can snap back on a dime. It is good to be back in the saddle. Cut your losses short.

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

The Big Wave Trading Portfolio continues to be under a BUY signal that was generated on August 3rd. The past week was another overall solid week with solid intraday price action outside of Friday. Another positive was the Nasdaq having two up sessions on volume well above average, continuing the trend from the previous week. We continue to believe that this uptrend can last longer based on the overall public (AAII Survey bulls: 37.5%) still not showing that bullish fever and the NYSE short interest ratio sitting around 5-year highs at 21.03. As long as the trend is up, the public is not overly bullish, and the short interest ratio remains high, the trend should continue to be our friend. We know what to look for if that changes but so far we have absolutely no signs of a change in trend coming. In fact the last distribution day on the Nasdaq was on August 21st (according to Telechart’s data). That is one month without a distribution day. Clearly, for now, there is nothing to worry about. We will cross that bridge when we get there. As for stocks, we continue to find a ton of attractive long positions and continue to see many others setting up. If this continues, it bodes well for the continuation of the rally. Despite some trading sessions the past week being quite boring, there were plenty of stocks that made exciting dynamic price moves higher. Seeing these stocks move like they are on quiet days is a clear sign of real accumulation. The only bad news, so far, in this rally is that we have not had a single stock set up in a “perfect” setup. However, that isn’t surprising as beautiful green filled chart patterns have been in decline since the 2008 crash. Trend following is definitely where it is at. Playing hot charts is not. I am sure one day that will change but as of right now it has not. We’ll keep hunting. Have a lovely rest of your weekend and aloha. Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal AVD long – 141% – 1/10/12 SVNT long – 70% – 9/10/12 NTE long – 65% – 8/17/12 CLGX long – 58% – 6/19/12 SHF long – 36% – 8/1/12 CAMP long – 33% – 4/26/12 PRXI short – 32% – 3/30/12 MAGS short – 30% – 4/18/12 VRNM short – 30% – 4/10/12 STX long – 25% – 6/29/12