$MSFT and $FSLR Lead the Market Higher

Unable to hang to the highs of the session stocks finish higher as volume jumps over Monday’s depressed levels. Wholesale inventories jumped more than expected in the month of February throwing a kink into first quarter GDP. Breadth on the NASDAQ ended in favor of the decliners despite the gains on the day. NYSE breadth ended in favor of advancers, but overall breadth has not been up to par with a rising market. Volume was below average, but above yesterday’s level showing interest in stocks picked up. However, the late day pullback from the highs did not leave us with a pleasant taste in our mouth. Regardless of how we feel about the market we are still in an uptrend and continue to operate as such. The two big movers on the day were $FSLR and $MSFT. $FSLR raised its guidance and the stock soared. It happens to be the third most shorted stock on the S&P 500. Then we have Mister Softy $MSFT jumping more than a point nearing $30. Volume was nearly twice its 50 day average. Both stocks were a big reason for the NASDAQ and S&P 500 finished in the green. Hard to say $MSFT is a growth name capable of moving substantially, but when it is a large component of the NASDAQ you have to sit up and take notice. Today’s economic data was essentially ignored with increasing inventories and the NFIB showing small business plan to hire is at 0%. Tomorrow’s release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes will be slobbered all over. When will the Fed begin to end or taper QErever? The fed has pledged to continue to provide stimulus until unemployment hits 6.5%. However, with Friday’s job report and the number of people leaving the labor force throws a monkey wrench into the Fed’s plan. Not to mention the QE plan has never been tested and risks can not be quantified. Time will tell and so will prices. Have a game plan and execute. Our uptrend remains in place and until we get a signal otherwise we’ll stick with our plan. Cut your losses short.

Another Late Day surge pushes Stocks higher as Volume disappears

Small caps lead the market higher today rebounding from last week’s losses just ahead of the first quarter earnings season. The market has been finding buyers after 3:30 pm EST and today was no different. Buyers helped push the market to the highs of the session. Volume continues to be extremely light on positive days. A show there isn’t much institutional support, but enough to push the market in positive territory. Our uptrend remains intact despite the lack of volume and we’ll continue to look for higher prices. We did not get any economic releases today and tomorrow will get a read on wholesale inventories. Not exactly exciting and nothing historically has moved the market very much. Wednesday we’ll get the FOMC meeting minutes at 2pm. A few Federal Reserve members have noted curbing asset purchases may help reducing the risks associated with printing to oblivion. It’ll be important to see how the market reacts and closes on Wednesday. Tuesday’s action isn’t likely to have any catalyst to change trend as Wednesday does. However, anything is possible and as long as you have a plan you’ll be in the driver’s seat. The big mover has been the USDJPY and the Nikkei. Central bankers in Japan have jumped the shark and have gone all-in on purchasing Japanese debt. For three straight quarters Japan has seen negative GDP growth and prospects remaining bleak. Again, the world is expecting a central banking cartel to manage using decentralized data. Bond purchases have not worked in decades and it is likely this round of unlimited purchases will have very little long term success. Will we get another Zimbabwe? Time will tell. Stick to your game plan and remain disciplined.

Volume Jumps after the Fed releases its Meeting Minutes

Building permits and housing starts failed to inspire the market, but the selling didn’t start ramping until the FOMC meeting minutes. Volume for much of the day was running lower than Tuesday’s level as traders were waiting on the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes. Upon the release it was clear from the release the Central Bank is at least talking about ending the or at least curbing the latest round of asset buying. The minutes also revealed the Fed is a bit more optimistic about the state of the economy and therefore could reduce the size of their purchases. Sellers didn’t need much more than that to take stocks below last week’s low in heavy trade. One day doesn’t make a trend, but today we finally saw some heavy volume selling. Our uptrend is on shaky ground and it is a prudent move to make sure you have your exit strategy in place. AAPL continues to weigh on the overall market, but today sellers took to the entire market. GOOG dropped back below $800. Crude oil fell more than two points with Gold and Silver falling hard on the day. One day doesn’t make a trend, but it is these types of days where you stand up and take notice. When indexes and leading stocks get hit hard you have to take notice and adjust. Know where your exits are and make sure you stick to your plan. It will be important for this market to find its footing to keep the uptrend alive. Selling in bunches like today are a big red flag for the market. Your stocks will let you know what is going on and if you are noticing your stocks are quickly hitting your exits it is a good sign the broader market is about to head lower. We are in caution mode and will need to see this market shake off today’s selling. Know your exits! Short-term Trends: No changes for today, but any further selling we are likely to see SPY, IWM, and QQQ flip to downtrends. TICKER ST TREND TREND CHANGE DATE CLOSE % SPY UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/20/2013 151.34 -1.25% IWM UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/20/2013 90.83 -1.86% QQQ UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/20/2013 67.19 -1.54% USO DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/20/2013 34.17 -2.26% UNG DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/20/2013 18.32 0.11% GLD DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/20/2013 151.44 -2.50% SLV DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/20/2013 27.59 -2.99% DBC UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/20/2013 27.92 -1.13% FXY DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/20/2013 104.82 0.05% FXE DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/20/2013 131.68 -0.85% TLT DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/20/2013 115.92 0.30%