Showing posts with label FSLR. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FSLR. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 09, 2013
$MSFT and $FSLR Lead the Market Higher
Unable to hang to the highs of the session stocks finish higher as volume jumps over Monday’s depressed levels. Wholesale inventories jumped more than expected in the month of February throwing a kink into first quarter GDP. Breadth on the NASDAQ ended in favor of the decliners despite the gains on the day. NYSE breadth ended in favor of advancers, but overall breadth has not been up to par with a rising market. Volume was below average, but above yesterday’s level showing interest in stocks picked up. However, the late day pullback from the highs did not leave us with a pleasant taste in our mouth. Regardless of how we feel about the market we are still in an uptrend and continue to operate as such.
The two big movers on the day were $FSLR and $MSFT. $FSLR raised its guidance and the stock soared. It happens to be the third most shorted stock on the S&P 500. Then we have Mister Softy $MSFT jumping more than a point nearing $30. Volume was nearly twice its 50 day average. Both stocks were a big reason for the NASDAQ and S&P 500 finished in the green. Hard to say $MSFT is a growth name capable of moving substantially, but when it is a large component of the NASDAQ you have to sit up and take notice.
Today’s economic data was essentially ignored with increasing inventories and the NFIB showing small business plan to hire is at 0%. Tomorrow’s release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes will be slobbered all over. When will the Fed begin to end or taper QErever? The fed has pledged to continue to provide stimulus until unemployment hits 6.5%. However, with Friday’s job report and the number of people leaving the labor force throws a monkey wrench into the Fed’s plan. Not to mention the QE plan has never been tested and risks can not be quantified. Time will tell and so will prices. Have a game plan and execute.
Our uptrend remains in place and until we get a signal otherwise we’ll stick with our plan. Cut your losses short.
Monday, February 11, 2013
Stocks Pullback in light Volume as the Market trades in a Tight Range
Today was largely an uneventful day as volume was well below average and well under Friday’s level. Sellers continue to be on vacation as buyers were able to lift the market into the close. AAPL was the talk of CNBC, but the stock remains in no man’s land despite the potential for the company to return cash to its shareholders. The Yen continued its decline as the Bank of Japan is hell bent on destroying its currency. In commodity land crude oil jumped back to 97 and appears the commodity is headed above par. It remains to be seen if these high crude prices will hurt the economy. We remain in our uptrend and at this point we don’t see enough evidence it will end any time soon.
Tomorrow we’ll get the President’s view of the state of the union where we’ll l likely hear about new spending measures. FSLR and SCTY moved and while we have high crude oil prices the President will likely renew his call to invest in solar. We simply see two stocks moving and at the moment it appears the industry is improving. Free government money is nice and when you couple it with higher crude prices solar certainly looks like a hot industry.
Europe continues to have issues and the DAX closed below its 50 day moving average again. The EURO has gained quite a bit because at the surface the ECB is not set out to destroy it. Our short-term trend model has been long FXE for quite some time. How long will it last? It is anyone’s guess, but for now the currency is in an uptrend. The Yen continues its decline and the dollar remains stuck in the middle. Currency markets have a funny way of making headlines and for now FXY and FXY remain in solid trends.
Bulls are looking for a correction to buy and bears are looking for a correction to sell. Sentiment continues to be bullish, but either camp has yet to win. Remember to have a game plan in place!
TICKER ST TREND CHANGE DATE CLOSE %
SPY UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/11/2013 151.77 -0.02%
IWM UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/11/2013 90.70 -0.11%
QQQ UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/11/2013 68.01 0.03%
USO UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/11/2013 35.12 1.21%
UNG DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/11/2013 18.45 0.49%
GLD DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/11/2013 159.70 -1.16%
SLV UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/11/2013 30.00 -1.41%
DBC UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/11/2013 28.45 -0.35%
FXY DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/11/2013 104.42 -1.20%
FXE UPTREND NO CHANGE 2/11/2013 132.94 0.26%
TLT DOWNTREND NO CHANGE 2/11/2013 117.12 -0.08%
Friday, December 14, 2012
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading portfolio remains under a NEUTRAL signal. However, we did switch to a BUY signal for 2 days before switching back to NEUTRAL. Fortunately for us, we have already closed shop on our model for the year. After the final and barely successful SELL signal it was decided that with the current price/volume pattern in the overall market, the upcoming Fiscal Cliff drama, and the news driven nature of the current market that shutting it down for 2012 was the right thing to do. This past week proves that point.
The past week saw a very noisy intraday nature to the market with a ton of stocks showing erratic to abnormal price action. Rather it was stocks like GMCR, FB, FSLR, AMCC, or RIMM going up almost every day non-stop or the reversal in price breakouts lower in stocks like SWHC, ARIA, QCOM, CNC, or ASPS that scripted what was an odd overall market. Even the big boys like PCLN and GOOG are showing erratic trading. This is a clear sign to us that trend following and stock picking the U.S. markets remain a very futile effort for anything other than a very short-term time frame. If your time frame is going to be weeks to months, on a position, we recommend waiting for better price and volume relationship to develop in this market. At this point for us we are very happy being heavily invested in cash and on the sidelines in our top systems.
Short-term daytrading methodologies and very long-term methodlogies in world ETFs with wide volatility/ATR stops are the only two systems working for us now. The world ETF market has been the one very bright spot in all of this. The moves in VNM, DXJ, EWH, EWS, and EWA have been very welcome during a time when the U.S. markets are behaving so poorly. We continue to believe that over the longer-term more capital and bigger position sizes are going to be needed in these markets to return outside normal returns in the future.
We are sure one day the stock market will trend in one direction or another for a period of time that will allow old trend following momentum methodologies in high quality stocks to work very well again. Until then, however, other markets should be where investors continue to look to into the future. That is unless we can get a change in the zero-interest-rate-policy, the Quantitative Easing environment, and extremely divided electorate some time soon. I wouldn’t place on hard bets on that happening for a while.
Aloha and have a wonderful weekend!
Current Top Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
NTE long – 118% – 8/17/12
VRNM short – 54% – 4/10/12
CAMP long – 48% – 4/26/12
CSU long – 37% – 9/4/12
ASTM short – 25% – 8/2/12Q
Thursday, November 01, 2012
NASDAQ Jumps off its 200 Day Moving Average in Increased Trade
Day three of the NASDAQ’s most recent attempted rally ended on a solid note with the index gaining 1.44% on increased trade. Big Wave Trading’s model has moved into neutral territory as we did see the market make solid gains. Traders in QQQs and SPYs didn’t overwhelming support the move as the ETFs showed volume come in lower. However, volume in the ETFs hasn’t mattered in determining a new market rally and today did not diverge. Banks lead by BAC continue to act well in this market and continue to get support from the Fed. Diverging from the market rally were Gold and Silver closing the day lower. Tomorrow’s job report is the highlight of the week and surely be a big focus for market pundits.
The NASDAQ put in an impressive move today. Suffering on the day was the VIX or fear index. Even during the decline fear never picked up to the point where you would say investors aren’t fearing any decline in the market. Volatility ETFs were once again slammed and continue to show themselves as a very difficult trading vehicle. But, now the market will have to deal with the jobs report tomorrow and election on Tuesday.
In the after-hours session plenty of stocks are moving higher. MELI and FSLR weren’t as fortunate as PCLN, LNKD, FOSL, and SBUX. Many of these stocks have been beaten up since the summer time. LNKD continues to trade higher despite sporting a PE near 200! Remember, CSCO in the 90s had an astronomically high PE and was a huge winner. PE only matters on the way down and not when the stock is moving higher. Remember, price will dictate your actions not where the PE trades. Many growth stocks are given high PE ratios by traders. It is when supply and demand deteriorates to a point where the stocks falls hard. It is only then when the PE was too high. We’ll see what tomorrow brings for these stocks, but they are performing well in the after-hours session.
We are no longer in oversold territory after today’s move. We are back to neutral in our model and will await a confirmation day. Friday represent day 4 of an attempted rally for the market. Remember, cut your losses.
CORRECTION: WE REMAIN UNDER A HARD SELL SIGNAL ON THE DJIA/SP500 BUT ARE NEUTRAL ON THE NASDAQ, RUSSELL 2000, AND NYSE. OVERALL, WE ARE NEUTRAL, WITH A TINY HEDGE REMAINING IN THE SPY/DIA. WE WILL DELETE THIS SMALL REMAINING HEDGE IF WE SUBSEQUENTLY CLOSE HIGHER ON FRIDAY.
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Oversold Bounce Has No Bounce As Stocks Selloff All Day Long On Lower Volume
The stock market ended the week the exact same way it started and that is with a lot of selling. On Monday the market found support intraday to stop it but on Friday there was none of that support as the market took the bounce that started on Wednesday and slammed it to the ground.
Now, I know a lot of people that are chart watcher want to be real bearish here, especially since the retail public has been brainwashed to buy these dips, but the fact is that we are still above the Wednesday’s lows and that the market’s bounce is in fact still intact. And the other item I see is that volume was lower on today’s move lower than on the previous two days of gains.
But there is one obvious problem I already see with this bounce. There are still no fresh stocks breaking out of beautiful properly formed bases on strong volume. Therefore, there is no way that we can expect anything more than an oversold bounce right now.
I have discussed this market so much the past week here in this little blog that I am finding almost impossible to say anything new about it. But I do see something that appears to me to be very bearish. In fact the bearish indicator is an indicator I hardly use but I put it on my chart for moments like this.
The moneystream line is an indicator that I almost know nothing about. What I do know is that when it makes very bullish or negative divergences it has a high correlation of hinting at a possible big move by the security or index. Well there are two indexes that I see with some amazingly huge divergences on the daily time frames.
The SP 600 and Nasdaq are both showing severe negative divergences in moneystream to price. The worst one is the SP 600. The price has just recently eclipsed the lows of November and December but the moneystream is well below its lows at that point. But even more noticeable is the moneystream at the November and December lows compared to the August lows. The moneystream was making new lows in November way before price was and by the time price went below the previous low the moneystream was waaayyyy below the August lows. This hinted at possible more declining prices then and it was right as the November and December lows have now been taken out. And the fact the moneystream is still hitting new lows confirms that the trend should continue after this bounce is over.
Not only is the moneystream leading price to new lows, the RS line is doing the same thing. The RS line hit new 52-week lows on 11/1 which was twelve days BEFORE!! the price hit new lows. On the December bounce where price went back to touch the 50 DMA, the RS line fell almost every single day. By the time prices turned lower again, the RS line was hitting new lows. It is also hitting new lows right now well ahead of its previous lows while price is just now breaking to new lows, confirming the weakness in this index. This bounce should fail.
The Nassy just recently hit a new closing low below the November and December lows on 1/4 and with that the moneystream followed but you will notice it is hitting a new low already. That is because back in November there were four consecutive nasty down days that took the index for an 8% decline. Even though the price was well above the August lows, the moneystream was already at the lows in August. After the weak bounce that started in November that just recently ended, the Nasdaq has resumed its selloff on higher volume. The moneystream with its huge negative divergence helped traders stay out of this nasty market. The little bounce we have had the past couple of days has been pretty weak and the moneystream is confirming this with it still riding the lows.
Sticking with the themes of new lows there were still an outstanding number of stocks making new 52-week lows compared to 52-week highs. There were 63 new highs to 453 new lows showing that this market is still extremely weak as every day this week had this kind of massive weakness.
On the other hand when it comes to looking for strength we continue to only see it in the safe/defensive sectors of oil, tobacco, metal-ore, chemical, household-consumer electronics, medical, retail-wholesale, consumer products, and foreign-banks. For some of you that are not familiar with these stocks you need to know that when all of these stocks are leading the markets are not bullish. They are normally in downtrends, just like this one is, and they normally stay in them for a long time. Since this leadership has just shown up, I think it is safe to say that this downtrend could last a long time. I wouldn’t go looking for a bottom any time soon if I were you.
Another clear sign that leadership is all wrong came when I decided to look at the industry groups making new highs or at the top of the list. When I did that I was surprised to see something that my scans are confirming (my scans ONLY look for strong stocks making strong gains). Medical stocks make up four of the top 10 industry groups in the IBD 197 industry group list. This is a CLEAR sign to me that we are in a bearish market environment where experienced investors should definitely be shorting the rallies and not buying the dips. Don’t try to outsmart the market. Better traders than you have tried to do this and have failed miserably!
There is even more evidence showing up that this market is weakening. Before when we were selling off all of the indexes would pretty much sell off at the same time, with exception to the two leading small cap indexes. Why leading? Because they were the two indexes that led us higher the whole way into the 2007 top. Only near the end did the big caps start to take a lead. Just like how they do near the end of every bull market. Now a few more indexes full of leading stocks are joining the small cap stocks in leading to the downside. Now we have both leading sectors leading us down. Not good.
The IBD 100 fell 2.3% and the IBD New America index fell 2.1% with the New America index Acc/Dis rating falling to D-. That goes along with the IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 indexes D Acc/Dis ratings. Those Acc/Dis ratings along with that kind of selling on a day the Nasdaq only fell .48% should be just one more red flag that keeps you out of this market on the long side. I just pray all of my subscribers have been listening to me and heeding my advice.
By the way to show you a bigger picture of the deterioration in the leading indexes you can take a look at this week. The IBD 100 fell 4.4% compared to the Nasdaq’s 2.6% drop, the DJIA’s 1.5% drop, the NYSE’s .9% loss, and the SP 500’s .8% small fall. The IBD indexes are not as bad as the Russell 2000 or the SP 600 the past six months or so but with a little bit more aggressive selling it could get ugly for those indexes. And that could happen sooner than later with a little bit of complacency coming back into this market.
The put/call fell to .89 which is not really complacent but it definitely is not fearful right now. Combine that with the important sentiment indicator from the investors intelligence survey showing bulls still around 50% at 48.4% and bears still around 25% at 25.8%. There is still no fear there and without that fear there can be no bottom. Speaking of fear. Where is it? The VIX at one point, intraday on Friday, was down while the market was down. But by the end of the day it closed up almost 1% to 23.68. The point is is that there is absolutely no way any meaningful low can be made until this thing hits 35 (like in August that gave us a lot of nice big winners in a short time) or any real long-term low can be made until we hit 50 like we did in October of 2002. So either 35 for a short term rally and if when that happens there are no HOT charts the next real great low comes with 50 and if still no HOT charts…look out below.
And confirming my look out below comments is the fact that when we look at the leaders like JDSU, EBAY, YHOO, QCOM, MSFT, CSCO, and ORCL back in 200 and compare them to the way they looked at the top to the way SPWR DECK MA MCD FSLR CMG ISRG STP PCLN WFR GOOG RIMM GRMN BIDU look now, you can see that they all look extremely similar. This weakness is just now starting to show up in most of these leaders and you have to remember GRMN was one of the very first leaders in 2002 that continued to rally all the way into 2007. Notice it was the first one to top and how violently it has sold off. When and if the other leaders look like GRMN and how the old leaders of 2000 did, this market will probably come in much lower than we are from now. Another thing to remember is that the leaders are just now starting to break down. This comes after the subprime, brokerage, and bank stocks have already came down. Just like how the internet stocks that were built on no earnings fell before the real leaders.
Oh how wonderful it is that history repeats itself and allows those that learn from the past the chance to profit in the future. Aloha and I will see you in the chat room, after a wonderful weekend of playoff football. GO GIANTS!!!!!! Giants vs Green Bay would be great. Indianapolis or San Diego (prefer SD) vs New England would be wonderful with a GB vs NE Super Bowl. That would be great. But Seeing the NY Giants in the Super Bowl sure would be great! Aloha!! Be careful out there new investors/traders!!
Now, I know a lot of people that are chart watcher want to be real bearish here, especially since the retail public has been brainwashed to buy these dips, but the fact is that we are still above the Wednesday’s lows and that the market’s bounce is in fact still intact. And the other item I see is that volume was lower on today’s move lower than on the previous two days of gains.
But there is one obvious problem I already see with this bounce. There are still no fresh stocks breaking out of beautiful properly formed bases on strong volume. Therefore, there is no way that we can expect anything more than an oversold bounce right now.
I have discussed this market so much the past week here in this little blog that I am finding almost impossible to say anything new about it. But I do see something that appears to me to be very bearish. In fact the bearish indicator is an indicator I hardly use but I put it on my chart for moments like this.
The moneystream line is an indicator that I almost know nothing about. What I do know is that when it makes very bullish or negative divergences it has a high correlation of hinting at a possible big move by the security or index. Well there are two indexes that I see with some amazingly huge divergences on the daily time frames.
The SP 600 and Nasdaq are both showing severe negative divergences in moneystream to price. The worst one is the SP 600. The price has just recently eclipsed the lows of November and December but the moneystream is well below its lows at that point. But even more noticeable is the moneystream at the November and December lows compared to the August lows. The moneystream was making new lows in November way before price was and by the time price went below the previous low the moneystream was waaayyyy below the August lows. This hinted at possible more declining prices then and it was right as the November and December lows have now been taken out. And the fact the moneystream is still hitting new lows confirms that the trend should continue after this bounce is over.
Not only is the moneystream leading price to new lows, the RS line is doing the same thing. The RS line hit new 52-week lows on 11/1 which was twelve days BEFORE!! the price hit new lows. On the December bounce where price went back to touch the 50 DMA, the RS line fell almost every single day. By the time prices turned lower again, the RS line was hitting new lows. It is also hitting new lows right now well ahead of its previous lows while price is just now breaking to new lows, confirming the weakness in this index. This bounce should fail.
The Nassy just recently hit a new closing low below the November and December lows on 1/4 and with that the moneystream followed but you will notice it is hitting a new low already. That is because back in November there were four consecutive nasty down days that took the index for an 8% decline. Even though the price was well above the August lows, the moneystream was already at the lows in August. After the weak bounce that started in November that just recently ended, the Nasdaq has resumed its selloff on higher volume. The moneystream with its huge negative divergence helped traders stay out of this nasty market. The little bounce we have had the past couple of days has been pretty weak and the moneystream is confirming this with it still riding the lows.
Sticking with the themes of new lows there were still an outstanding number of stocks making new 52-week lows compared to 52-week highs. There were 63 new highs to 453 new lows showing that this market is still extremely weak as every day this week had this kind of massive weakness.
On the other hand when it comes to looking for strength we continue to only see it in the safe/defensive sectors of oil, tobacco, metal-ore, chemical, household-consumer electronics, medical, retail-wholesale, consumer products, and foreign-banks. For some of you that are not familiar with these stocks you need to know that when all of these stocks are leading the markets are not bullish. They are normally in downtrends, just like this one is, and they normally stay in them for a long time. Since this leadership has just shown up, I think it is safe to say that this downtrend could last a long time. I wouldn’t go looking for a bottom any time soon if I were you.
Another clear sign that leadership is all wrong came when I decided to look at the industry groups making new highs or at the top of the list. When I did that I was surprised to see something that my scans are confirming (my scans ONLY look for strong stocks making strong gains). Medical stocks make up four of the top 10 industry groups in the IBD 197 industry group list. This is a CLEAR sign to me that we are in a bearish market environment where experienced investors should definitely be shorting the rallies and not buying the dips. Don’t try to outsmart the market. Better traders than you have tried to do this and have failed miserably!
There is even more evidence showing up that this market is weakening. Before when we were selling off all of the indexes would pretty much sell off at the same time, with exception to the two leading small cap indexes. Why leading? Because they were the two indexes that led us higher the whole way into the 2007 top. Only near the end did the big caps start to take a lead. Just like how they do near the end of every bull market. Now a few more indexes full of leading stocks are joining the small cap stocks in leading to the downside. Now we have both leading sectors leading us down. Not good.
The IBD 100 fell 2.3% and the IBD New America index fell 2.1% with the New America index Acc/Dis rating falling to D-. That goes along with the IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 indexes D Acc/Dis ratings. Those Acc/Dis ratings along with that kind of selling on a day the Nasdaq only fell .48% should be just one more red flag that keeps you out of this market on the long side. I just pray all of my subscribers have been listening to me and heeding my advice.
By the way to show you a bigger picture of the deterioration in the leading indexes you can take a look at this week. The IBD 100 fell 4.4% compared to the Nasdaq’s 2.6% drop, the DJIA’s 1.5% drop, the NYSE’s .9% loss, and the SP 500’s .8% small fall. The IBD indexes are not as bad as the Russell 2000 or the SP 600 the past six months or so but with a little bit more aggressive selling it could get ugly for those indexes. And that could happen sooner than later with a little bit of complacency coming back into this market.
The put/call fell to .89 which is not really complacent but it definitely is not fearful right now. Combine that with the important sentiment indicator from the investors intelligence survey showing bulls still around 50% at 48.4% and bears still around 25% at 25.8%. There is still no fear there and without that fear there can be no bottom. Speaking of fear. Where is it? The VIX at one point, intraday on Friday, was down while the market was down. But by the end of the day it closed up almost 1% to 23.68. The point is is that there is absolutely no way any meaningful low can be made until this thing hits 35 (like in August that gave us a lot of nice big winners in a short time) or any real long-term low can be made until we hit 50 like we did in October of 2002. So either 35 for a short term rally and if when that happens there are no HOT charts the next real great low comes with 50 and if still no HOT charts…look out below.
And confirming my look out below comments is the fact that when we look at the leaders like JDSU, EBAY, YHOO, QCOM, MSFT, CSCO, and ORCL back in 200 and compare them to the way they looked at the top to the way SPWR DECK MA MCD FSLR CMG ISRG STP PCLN WFR GOOG RIMM GRMN BIDU look now, you can see that they all look extremely similar. This weakness is just now starting to show up in most of these leaders and you have to remember GRMN was one of the very first leaders in 2002 that continued to rally all the way into 2007. Notice it was the first one to top and how violently it has sold off. When and if the other leaders look like GRMN and how the old leaders of 2000 did, this market will probably come in much lower than we are from now. Another thing to remember is that the leaders are just now starting to break down. This comes after the subprime, brokerage, and bank stocks have already came down. Just like how the internet stocks that were built on no earnings fell before the real leaders.
Oh how wonderful it is that history repeats itself and allows those that learn from the past the chance to profit in the future. Aloha and I will see you in the chat room, after a wonderful weekend of playoff football. GO GIANTS!!!!!! Giants vs Green Bay would be great. Indianapolis or San Diego (prefer SD) vs New England would be wonderful with a GB vs NE Super Bowl. That would be great. But Seeing the NY Giants in the Super Bowl sure would be great! Aloha!! Be careful out there new investors/traders!!
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Another Selloff Helps Stocks Put In One Of Their Worst Weeks In Five Years; The Time To Be Long Has Passed
Subscribers to this site definitely were not caught by surprise when it comes to the selloff we have had the past three days. After Tuesday's market session I ended up with a TON of strong CANSLIM quality longs that appeared to signal that the market was ready for another leg up. However, the very next day, stocks reversed hard on heavier volume and many of the new buys were left looking quite mediocre. That particular action was very bearish to me and caused me to pen this right after the closing bell on Wednesday:
Screw This Market; Nasty Selloff After Such A Strong Day Is A Clear Topping Signal
November 7, 2007
I am losing my bullish bias. All my hard work yesterday was rewarded with this!!! Screw this market. Sell all laggards, cut your losses in stocks not working, take in some profits, and raise cash. This market is in for some rough times. Even if it turns around I don’t care anymore. The easy money is being made on the short side now. It is time to get rid of the bullish bias. This is the most confusing market I have EVER seen. Since 1996 I have never seen a market so screwy. Get out of your new longs and take profits. It is time to start selling. If there is nothing wrong with your longs, keep holding.
What makes all of this worse is that today I just loaded up on FNDT in my IRA. This is now the third buy in a row I have made in my IRA that has been a loser (SNDA, BLL, and now FNDT). Right now, I freaking suck, so it is best to not follow my trades unless you really like them. The easy money off the August lows has come and gone. I don’t know what the market is going to do next (probably goes lower) and with all of this volatility I do not want to be a part of it.
I have never seen such a freaking crazy market. The 2000 top has NOTHING on this wild action. If we are not topping, then damn it I really have lost all ability to read the market. Right now, it is unreadable. Anyone bullish or bearish is just asking to get punched in the face. I will continue to take both longs and shorts and will keep everything 1% or smaller of my initial equity.
I am so upset words can not even express how upset I am. Screw this market!!! Have a great evening. Aloha!
I was upset at the time because I felt like it was possible the market was going to rally hard the very next day offering up new longs. Thankfully, the caution that I suggested was rewarded as the Nasdaq sold off 4.4% the past two days. For those that listened to me and took money off the table, way to go. We missed out on some major carnage.
Now my style now forces me to hold at least 10-20% of a long all the way until it closes below the 200 dma (that is why I am still long ZNH even though I KNOW it has topped). The reason I do that is because I have been stopped out of a TON of big winners by not waiting for this event to happen. I am bringing this up because even though I am still long over 100 stocks, it is only because they are above key support and the 200 day moving average. There are about 25% of stocks in my portfolio that if I traded my old style would be complete sells. It would save me money to cut them now, I am sure. But like I just said, I guarantee, my returns would not be as strong if I did not adhere to this rule. I would have been out of MA, IHS, and many other stocks that I am instead enjoying large gains in. I have missed out on too many huge winners to not adhere by this rule.
But, if you are in a stock that no longer posses a green chart with a strong uptrend, you should probably get out of it. This market has definitely changed and this selloff is MUCH different than the rest. This is the first selloff where there is no safe haven. They have finally gotten to ALL of the leaders. There was only one group, come Friday, that did not suffer any selling, and thanks to the exhaustion gap following great earnings (earnings always look the BEST AT THE TOP) FSLR put in, it is probably safe to say that group is done. When I look at the angle of ascent of FSLR, JASO, and SPWR and then see the island reversals in all three stocks it becomes clear that these stocks now look like they have topped.
JASO is the best example of this. After a large uptrend the stock makes its biggest one day move on Thursday by putting in an exhaustion gap off of FSLR earnings. Then the very next day, it gaps lower on its largest volume ever, losing more than it gained on the gap higher, and BOP went red. This is very ugly action after such a bullish previous day. This was the last sub-sector that was holding up in the market. Now they have gotten these too.
The day before was the first day we officially saw all four leading stocks of this five-year bull market all selloff on strong volume the same day. When you look at the strong volume of the selling in all of these stocks, you can see that there have been very few days where we have seen back-to-back days of selling like this in all of our leaders. What makes this even more evident that the leaders are topping is the fact that the fifth and sixth horseman have problems too (GRMN and FSLR).
FSLR's action the past three days confirms the poor action in the leaders with everything I just listed above with the solars. But the first official leader of the bull market that started October 2002 was GRMN. Anyone who has been following GRMN recently knows that the stock has more than likely put in a real top and if you are still holding on to any shares I hope it is only 20% or less as the volume and follow-through selling after a five year bull market simply can't be ignored. This stock has topped. All of our leaders have topped. Now the next step is waiting for an area to short.
Before I go over where I want to short these leaders, first I think it is important for you all to understand why these stocks may be topping. If you look at a chart of BIDU going back to 2005 on an arithmetic chart, you will notice that the stock has pretty much been a very tight stock trending higher until early/mid October where it had its first huge volume selloff. That was the first warning that real dumping was occurring. Then after an extreme rally, the stock has rolled over on heavy volume the past two days. What this stock currently has going for it is that the stock is still above the 50 day moving average. But by looking at the recent distribution in the chart and noticing the very wide trading range recently appearing, it appears the stock is done. With the market already under distribution it isn't going to shock me when this leader falls.
RIMM is the same way since the 2002 lows as it has been in a steady uptrend. Around June this year, the uptrend starting to move at a more exponential slope and along the way RIMM did an excessive 3 for 1 split. After that, the stock rallied on lower volume (not bullish) and then had a breakout (could be exhaustion) gap on huge volume. Since the gap in June was the breakout, this is possibly an exhaustion. The rally that followed the gap was also on lower volume and now the past two days the stock has sold off on heavy volume. The two day decline of 14% on large volume is the most severe selling the stock has seen since its rally started and is a clear sign that there is not much left in this former leader. The good news, like BIDU is that it is above the 50 day moving average. So if you are long there is no reason to sell all of it but if you have not locked in any profits you better do so.
The worst looking of the leaders on the short term is GOOG. GOOG's 9% drop the past two days has come on very large volume and when you combine the two days of selling it is the heaviest volume since March 2006. If you look at a two day chart on an arithmetic scale you can see the drop is the most severe drop the stock has seen since it started trading and the drop looks very nasty on the chart. The long uptrend line from September has now been broken on huge volume which is a clear profit taking signal. Just like the other leaders this stock remains above the 50 day moving average but it too is so weak in the short term that it would not surprise me if we go right through that line. However, if you are still long some, keep holding. Until the 200 day moving average is broken there is no reason to get out of all your GOOG long.
The last leader that is holding up is AAPL. Once again, a two day chart shows the severity of the 11% drop the past two days as the candlestick bar is much longer than anything else you can see on this chart. This stock started to get roughed up in August as it had a LOT of selling hit the stock but back then the stock found strong intraday support on most of the days that the heavy selling hit it. That caused it to rally off the lows to the November highs. The problem with the rally is that the majority of it was done on lower volume. That indicated that the retail crowd was the only crowd interest in buying it up here. That low volume rally has now been met by heavy volume selling, just like most low volume rallies are. This stock is resting on the 50 day moving average and looks the weakest out of all the leaders. If you have not taken profits on this stock, you better take some profits on this one. However, until it closes below the 200 dma, I don't think you should sell all of it.
The only leader that has broken is GRMN. I am using GRMN as an example for the rest of the leaders in what I want to see before I go short. Because shorting leading stocks before they are ready to be shorted leaves you in massive pain. Just ask all the short sellers of these leading stocks in February and August. I am sure they are still feeling that pain. I know many traders who shorted some of these leaders both in February and July/August. Both times they felt it. Some think shorting GRMN right here is the right play now. I still don't think that is the case. GRMN still hasn't failed the 200 day moving average so it is still possible it could bounce here and break through the 50 day moving average and go on to new highs. While I doubt that will happen, I will tell you what I would like to see happen so that I can short this stock.
I would like to see GRMN touch the 200 day moving average and begin a rally to the downtrending 50 day moving average (if you look at the average, you will see it has turned lower). I would then like to see it bounce around the 50 day moving average for a while and/or rally above it and break back down below it. Then I will wait for a high volume selloff around the 50 and 200 day moving average. If you look at the stock DNB, you will see what I would love to see GRMN do. If GRMN breaks down just like DNB did in the middle of October, I will load up in GRMN. The other reason that I would load up is that if GRMN ends up looking like DNB, we can guarantee that the market will be still selling off like it has been recently. There has been a ton of distribution in the stock market the past few months and if the leaders start selling off I truly doubt volume will be low.
Even though I was getting bearish on Wednesday, I have to admit I still wasn't ready to abandon the bull case, as I know that it is hard to stop bullish momentum. But there were two stocks on Thursday that gave me "hope" that the bull was going to continue. One was the stock you read about earlier called FNDT. The other one was EXLS.
FNDT was not a perfect chart at all as the stock did not have two straight months of max BOP. But it did the second best thing which is to bounce off the 50 day moving average, put in a very bullish intraday reversal, breakout to or near recent highs on extremely strong volume, and do it with BOP going max green. Well FNDT did the latter and three days later was looking great as the stock was breaking out to new highs and closing at its HOD with BOP still max green. So obviously the stock deserved to be in my IRA. I only put what I consider the best looking charts in there. I have to admit I normally want a lot more max green BOP but I was getting very trigger happy in this market as the lack of perfect charts was driving me crazy.
But the stock market slapped me right in my face the very next day as it slammed FNDT almost 3%. That was enough to officially kill the beautiful chart. Well it was still beautiful but the chances of failure rose. And sure enough come Friday the stock closed below the 50 day moving average on heavy volume a clear signal to sell almost all of it. I am now holding 25% in my regular accounts since I went long on 11/1. But the buy in my IRA on 11/6 has been completely sold. So that now makes the last three longs in my IRA all losers. And with FNDT failing (it had such a nice chart and extremely strong fundies with good estimates) it was one of my last hopes that this bull market was not over finally being destroyed. As this five year bull market appears to be ending, I am slowly coming to the acceptance that it is over.
My final hope that the bull market was not over yet came on Thursday night as I did my scans. I happened to come across a stock that had a 99 EPS rating and had some great fundamentals overall once I started to delve deeper into this stocks story. Not only were the fundamentals incredible for EXLS the chart was very long and the right side seemed very sound with the slight accumulation and green BOP spread about. The best thing about the chart seemed to be that the RS line was leading the price into new high grounds by such a great margin that if the market was putting in lows (which I was not sure if it was or not because the leaders were just cracking and I was not sure a short-term oversold rally was going to happen or not) this stock would explode higher. So I even went long quite a bit despite the weak market because this stock looked so good.
But proving once and for all that being long is now completely wrong, the stock gapped slightly and sold off all day long ending just slightly off its LOD. Just like FNDT, this was a complete sale as it immediately reversed the breakout. Now since I follow my rules hardcore, I still own 20% of this long for my accounts and 25% in the Conservative CANSLIM port on our website since it did not close below the 50 day moving average/24.71 level. But back in the old days I would definitely have sold it all by now and I recommend that if you have a smaller portfolio that you sell all of it. This stock was so pretty on Thursday, despite the nasty market selloff. If this stock would have rallied off of an oversold bounce the gains would have been great and might have produced a great stock. In a bull market this chart pattern in a stock with this kind of fundamental power in EPS and sales growth would produce 80% plus gains (80% is the move off the closing lows in July to the highs in November). However, a stock that fails this kind of super strong nice pattern is definitely in the wrong market environment. Sadly, for the stock, it takes a perfectly amazing pattern that would have rocked in a bull market and throws it the ground and kicks it in the gut. How rude!!
Is it possible that the market could put in a huge bullish reversal on Monday and then give us a follow-through day four days later? Of course it is. Anything can happen in the stock market. That is why you must never marry the bullish or bearish side. You must always stay flexible. I will tell you this though, if we do get a follow through in the next five days, it is going to take months to produce hot charts. There are very few charts that look like NYX. And before NYX becomes a new long it is going to need to move sideways to slightly higher a bit longer as it is still too deep in its basing pattern from the November 2006 highs.
Some of the reasons why I personally think that we will not bottom any time too soon is because no matter how many people say that there is fear out there I do not see it. I did see that the AAII bear ratio hit 50% which is high but I have seen the Investors Intelligence numbers recently and I believe that is at 22% right now. At the lows in August it was 35% bears and 45% bulls. With the bulls also at 55% right now, I doubt we are at the lows right here. Even at the February lows the bears hit 30% so I am not sure how there can be too much fear in the market right now. On the realmoney.com site I see 35% are bullish and 41% are bearish. In August the bears hit 60% and the bulls hit less than 25% so this bull/bear survey is off the bottom mark too.
But the most important sentiment indicators, imo, are the ones where actual money is put on the line. In that case, the put/call ratio is always one of my favorites to look at. One of the most interesting things I saw this week was that on Wednesday when the market sold off the put/call went from .96 to .90 CLEARLY signaling that there was absolutely no panic put buying during the selloff. That was another bearish warning that something bad was coming. Well on Thursday the ratio spiked up to 1.10. But then on Friday with the Nasdaq falling 2.5% and the IBD 100 falling 3.2% the put/call ratio actually fell from 1.10 to 1.03!! It is simply stunning that an index can selloff 2.5% and the options players bet against the trend and buy the dips since that is what they have been used to since October 2002. The put/call ratio dropping two of three down days this week despite the selloff is the most clear indication that there is no fear out there in actual market players.
The last place to look for fear is the VIX index. The VIX did increase 33% the past three days and that is a major development but just as there was no real fear in the selling in February there is no real fear in this selling right now either. The lows in August were put in once VIX got over 35. What proves my point that the big money is made with a high VIX, the rally that followed produced many brand new longs that made 25-100% gains in three months or less. If the VIX would have gotten over 50, we would have had a ton of 50%-200% gainers. That is how the VIX works. The higher the VIX the more money we make in our longs. The higher the VIX the worse the selloff is to give us fewer stocks to focus on. The few stocks that produce hot pretty green charts always become our new longs that give us huge fast gains.
Right now, the VIX is at 28.50 and until the VIX gets to 35 there is no way that we can even begin to talk about a market that is too oversold and needs to bounce because the market has gotten too bearish too fast. No matter what the talking fundamentalist blind-traders say on CNBC, you must follow your charts and listen to their silent voices. The charts speak louder and more truth than any analyst on TV or on the radio ever will. Those who told me to buy banks all the way down the past few months could have saved their clients a bunch of money if they would have learned to use charts. God bless Don Worden and his TC2007. I don't know what I would do without it. Without it, I wonder if there even would be any stock market commentary by me. This is the greatest way to make a living. Definitely one of the hardest. But still one of the best ways to make an honest dollar!
Aloha and I will see you in the chat room where no matter what market direction we are in we always stay in control and make money (except for this week--it sure was painful; ouch!). ALOHA!!!!
Screw This Market; Nasty Selloff After Such A Strong Day Is A Clear Topping Signal
November 7, 2007
I am losing my bullish bias. All my hard work yesterday was rewarded with this!!! Screw this market. Sell all laggards, cut your losses in stocks not working, take in some profits, and raise cash. This market is in for some rough times. Even if it turns around I don’t care anymore. The easy money is being made on the short side now. It is time to get rid of the bullish bias. This is the most confusing market I have EVER seen. Since 1996 I have never seen a market so screwy. Get out of your new longs and take profits. It is time to start selling. If there is nothing wrong with your longs, keep holding.
What makes all of this worse is that today I just loaded up on FNDT in my IRA. This is now the third buy in a row I have made in my IRA that has been a loser (SNDA, BLL, and now FNDT). Right now, I freaking suck, so it is best to not follow my trades unless you really like them. The easy money off the August lows has come and gone. I don’t know what the market is going to do next (probably goes lower) and with all of this volatility I do not want to be a part of it.
I have never seen such a freaking crazy market. The 2000 top has NOTHING on this wild action. If we are not topping, then damn it I really have lost all ability to read the market. Right now, it is unreadable. Anyone bullish or bearish is just asking to get punched in the face. I will continue to take both longs and shorts and will keep everything 1% or smaller of my initial equity.
I am so upset words can not even express how upset I am. Screw this market!!! Have a great evening. Aloha!
I was upset at the time because I felt like it was possible the market was going to rally hard the very next day offering up new longs. Thankfully, the caution that I suggested was rewarded as the Nasdaq sold off 4.4% the past two days. For those that listened to me and took money off the table, way to go. We missed out on some major carnage.
Now my style now forces me to hold at least 10-20% of a long all the way until it closes below the 200 dma (that is why I am still long ZNH even though I KNOW it has topped). The reason I do that is because I have been stopped out of a TON of big winners by not waiting for this event to happen. I am bringing this up because even though I am still long over 100 stocks, it is only because they are above key support and the 200 day moving average. There are about 25% of stocks in my portfolio that if I traded my old style would be complete sells. It would save me money to cut them now, I am sure. But like I just said, I guarantee, my returns would not be as strong if I did not adhere to this rule. I would have been out of MA, IHS, and many other stocks that I am instead enjoying large gains in. I have missed out on too many huge winners to not adhere by this rule.
But, if you are in a stock that no longer posses a green chart with a strong uptrend, you should probably get out of it. This market has definitely changed and this selloff is MUCH different than the rest. This is the first selloff where there is no safe haven. They have finally gotten to ALL of the leaders. There was only one group, come Friday, that did not suffer any selling, and thanks to the exhaustion gap following great earnings (earnings always look the BEST AT THE TOP) FSLR put in, it is probably safe to say that group is done. When I look at the angle of ascent of FSLR, JASO, and SPWR and then see the island reversals in all three stocks it becomes clear that these stocks now look like they have topped.
JASO is the best example of this. After a large uptrend the stock makes its biggest one day move on Thursday by putting in an exhaustion gap off of FSLR earnings. Then the very next day, it gaps lower on its largest volume ever, losing more than it gained on the gap higher, and BOP went red. This is very ugly action after such a bullish previous day. This was the last sub-sector that was holding up in the market. Now they have gotten these too.
The day before was the first day we officially saw all four leading stocks of this five-year bull market all selloff on strong volume the same day. When you look at the strong volume of the selling in all of these stocks, you can see that there have been very few days where we have seen back-to-back days of selling like this in all of our leaders. What makes this even more evident that the leaders are topping is the fact that the fifth and sixth horseman have problems too (GRMN and FSLR).
FSLR's action the past three days confirms the poor action in the leaders with everything I just listed above with the solars. But the first official leader of the bull market that started October 2002 was GRMN. Anyone who has been following GRMN recently knows that the stock has more than likely put in a real top and if you are still holding on to any shares I hope it is only 20% or less as the volume and follow-through selling after a five year bull market simply can't be ignored. This stock has topped. All of our leaders have topped. Now the next step is waiting for an area to short.
Before I go over where I want to short these leaders, first I think it is important for you all to understand why these stocks may be topping. If you look at a chart of BIDU going back to 2005 on an arithmetic chart, you will notice that the stock has pretty much been a very tight stock trending higher until early/mid October where it had its first huge volume selloff. That was the first warning that real dumping was occurring. Then after an extreme rally, the stock has rolled over on heavy volume the past two days. What this stock currently has going for it is that the stock is still above the 50 day moving average. But by looking at the recent distribution in the chart and noticing the very wide trading range recently appearing, it appears the stock is done. With the market already under distribution it isn't going to shock me when this leader falls.
RIMM is the same way since the 2002 lows as it has been in a steady uptrend. Around June this year, the uptrend starting to move at a more exponential slope and along the way RIMM did an excessive 3 for 1 split. After that, the stock rallied on lower volume (not bullish) and then had a breakout (could be exhaustion) gap on huge volume. Since the gap in June was the breakout, this is possibly an exhaustion. The rally that followed the gap was also on lower volume and now the past two days the stock has sold off on heavy volume. The two day decline of 14% on large volume is the most severe selling the stock has seen since its rally started and is a clear sign that there is not much left in this former leader. The good news, like BIDU is that it is above the 50 day moving average. So if you are long there is no reason to sell all of it but if you have not locked in any profits you better do so.
The worst looking of the leaders on the short term is GOOG. GOOG's 9% drop the past two days has come on very large volume and when you combine the two days of selling it is the heaviest volume since March 2006. If you look at a two day chart on an arithmetic scale you can see the drop is the most severe drop the stock has seen since it started trading and the drop looks very nasty on the chart. The long uptrend line from September has now been broken on huge volume which is a clear profit taking signal. Just like the other leaders this stock remains above the 50 day moving average but it too is so weak in the short term that it would not surprise me if we go right through that line. However, if you are still long some, keep holding. Until the 200 day moving average is broken there is no reason to get out of all your GOOG long.
The last leader that is holding up is AAPL. Once again, a two day chart shows the severity of the 11% drop the past two days as the candlestick bar is much longer than anything else you can see on this chart. This stock started to get roughed up in August as it had a LOT of selling hit the stock but back then the stock found strong intraday support on most of the days that the heavy selling hit it. That caused it to rally off the lows to the November highs. The problem with the rally is that the majority of it was done on lower volume. That indicated that the retail crowd was the only crowd interest in buying it up here. That low volume rally has now been met by heavy volume selling, just like most low volume rallies are. This stock is resting on the 50 day moving average and looks the weakest out of all the leaders. If you have not taken profits on this stock, you better take some profits on this one. However, until it closes below the 200 dma, I don't think you should sell all of it.
The only leader that has broken is GRMN. I am using GRMN as an example for the rest of the leaders in what I want to see before I go short. Because shorting leading stocks before they are ready to be shorted leaves you in massive pain. Just ask all the short sellers of these leading stocks in February and August. I am sure they are still feeling that pain. I know many traders who shorted some of these leaders both in February and July/August. Both times they felt it. Some think shorting GRMN right here is the right play now. I still don't think that is the case. GRMN still hasn't failed the 200 day moving average so it is still possible it could bounce here and break through the 50 day moving average and go on to new highs. While I doubt that will happen, I will tell you what I would like to see happen so that I can short this stock.
I would like to see GRMN touch the 200 day moving average and begin a rally to the downtrending 50 day moving average (if you look at the average, you will see it has turned lower). I would then like to see it bounce around the 50 day moving average for a while and/or rally above it and break back down below it. Then I will wait for a high volume selloff around the 50 and 200 day moving average. If you look at the stock DNB, you will see what I would love to see GRMN do. If GRMN breaks down just like DNB did in the middle of October, I will load up in GRMN. The other reason that I would load up is that if GRMN ends up looking like DNB, we can guarantee that the market will be still selling off like it has been recently. There has been a ton of distribution in the stock market the past few months and if the leaders start selling off I truly doubt volume will be low.
Even though I was getting bearish on Wednesday, I have to admit I still wasn't ready to abandon the bull case, as I know that it is hard to stop bullish momentum. But there were two stocks on Thursday that gave me "hope" that the bull was going to continue. One was the stock you read about earlier called FNDT. The other one was EXLS.
FNDT was not a perfect chart at all as the stock did not have two straight months of max BOP. But it did the second best thing which is to bounce off the 50 day moving average, put in a very bullish intraday reversal, breakout to or near recent highs on extremely strong volume, and do it with BOP going max green. Well FNDT did the latter and three days later was looking great as the stock was breaking out to new highs and closing at its HOD with BOP still max green. So obviously the stock deserved to be in my IRA. I only put what I consider the best looking charts in there. I have to admit I normally want a lot more max green BOP but I was getting very trigger happy in this market as the lack of perfect charts was driving me crazy.
But the stock market slapped me right in my face the very next day as it slammed FNDT almost 3%. That was enough to officially kill the beautiful chart. Well it was still beautiful but the chances of failure rose. And sure enough come Friday the stock closed below the 50 day moving average on heavy volume a clear signal to sell almost all of it. I am now holding 25% in my regular accounts since I went long on 11/1. But the buy in my IRA on 11/6 has been completely sold. So that now makes the last three longs in my IRA all losers. And with FNDT failing (it had such a nice chart and extremely strong fundies with good estimates) it was one of my last hopes that this bull market was not over finally being destroyed. As this five year bull market appears to be ending, I am slowly coming to the acceptance that it is over.
My final hope that the bull market was not over yet came on Thursday night as I did my scans. I happened to come across a stock that had a 99 EPS rating and had some great fundamentals overall once I started to delve deeper into this stocks story. Not only were the fundamentals incredible for EXLS the chart was very long and the right side seemed very sound with the slight accumulation and green BOP spread about. The best thing about the chart seemed to be that the RS line was leading the price into new high grounds by such a great margin that if the market was putting in lows (which I was not sure if it was or not because the leaders were just cracking and I was not sure a short-term oversold rally was going to happen or not) this stock would explode higher. So I even went long quite a bit despite the weak market because this stock looked so good.
But proving once and for all that being long is now completely wrong, the stock gapped slightly and sold off all day long ending just slightly off its LOD. Just like FNDT, this was a complete sale as it immediately reversed the breakout. Now since I follow my rules hardcore, I still own 20% of this long for my accounts and 25% in the Conservative CANSLIM port on our website since it did not close below the 50 day moving average/24.71 level. But back in the old days I would definitely have sold it all by now and I recommend that if you have a smaller portfolio that you sell all of it. This stock was so pretty on Thursday, despite the nasty market selloff. If this stock would have rallied off of an oversold bounce the gains would have been great and might have produced a great stock. In a bull market this chart pattern in a stock with this kind of fundamental power in EPS and sales growth would produce 80% plus gains (80% is the move off the closing lows in July to the highs in November). However, a stock that fails this kind of super strong nice pattern is definitely in the wrong market environment. Sadly, for the stock, it takes a perfectly amazing pattern that would have rocked in a bull market and throws it the ground and kicks it in the gut. How rude!!
Is it possible that the market could put in a huge bullish reversal on Monday and then give us a follow-through day four days later? Of course it is. Anything can happen in the stock market. That is why you must never marry the bullish or bearish side. You must always stay flexible. I will tell you this though, if we do get a follow through in the next five days, it is going to take months to produce hot charts. There are very few charts that look like NYX. And before NYX becomes a new long it is going to need to move sideways to slightly higher a bit longer as it is still too deep in its basing pattern from the November 2006 highs.
Some of the reasons why I personally think that we will not bottom any time too soon is because no matter how many people say that there is fear out there I do not see it. I did see that the AAII bear ratio hit 50% which is high but I have seen the Investors Intelligence numbers recently and I believe that is at 22% right now. At the lows in August it was 35% bears and 45% bulls. With the bulls also at 55% right now, I doubt we are at the lows right here. Even at the February lows the bears hit 30% so I am not sure how there can be too much fear in the market right now. On the realmoney.com site I see 35% are bullish and 41% are bearish. In August the bears hit 60% and the bulls hit less than 25% so this bull/bear survey is off the bottom mark too.
But the most important sentiment indicators, imo, are the ones where actual money is put on the line. In that case, the put/call ratio is always one of my favorites to look at. One of the most interesting things I saw this week was that on Wednesday when the market sold off the put/call went from .96 to .90 CLEARLY signaling that there was absolutely no panic put buying during the selloff. That was another bearish warning that something bad was coming. Well on Thursday the ratio spiked up to 1.10. But then on Friday with the Nasdaq falling 2.5% and the IBD 100 falling 3.2% the put/call ratio actually fell from 1.10 to 1.03!! It is simply stunning that an index can selloff 2.5% and the options players bet against the trend and buy the dips since that is what they have been used to since October 2002. The put/call ratio dropping two of three down days this week despite the selloff is the most clear indication that there is no fear out there in actual market players.
The last place to look for fear is the VIX index. The VIX did increase 33% the past three days and that is a major development but just as there was no real fear in the selling in February there is no real fear in this selling right now either. The lows in August were put in once VIX got over 35. What proves my point that the big money is made with a high VIX, the rally that followed produced many brand new longs that made 25-100% gains in three months or less. If the VIX would have gotten over 50, we would have had a ton of 50%-200% gainers. That is how the VIX works. The higher the VIX the more money we make in our longs. The higher the VIX the worse the selloff is to give us fewer stocks to focus on. The few stocks that produce hot pretty green charts always become our new longs that give us huge fast gains.
Right now, the VIX is at 28.50 and until the VIX gets to 35 there is no way that we can even begin to talk about a market that is too oversold and needs to bounce because the market has gotten too bearish too fast. No matter what the talking fundamentalist blind-traders say on CNBC, you must follow your charts and listen to their silent voices. The charts speak louder and more truth than any analyst on TV or on the radio ever will. Those who told me to buy banks all the way down the past few months could have saved their clients a bunch of money if they would have learned to use charts. God bless Don Worden and his TC2007. I don't know what I would do without it. Without it, I wonder if there even would be any stock market commentary by me. This is the greatest way to make a living. Definitely one of the hardest. But still one of the best ways to make an honest dollar!
Aloha and I will see you in the chat room where no matter what market direction we are in we always stay in control and make money (except for this week--it sure was painful; ouch!). ALOHA!!!!
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