Big Wave Trading incorporates a Mechanical Disciplined Signal Generated System and uses a Market Model system to invest profitably in the stock and futures markets. Big Wave Trading also incorporates a strict risk management system and cuts losses immediately if a new purchase does not work in our favored direction right away.
Showing posts with label HTA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label HTA. Show all posts
Sunday, May 12, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolios remain under a full BUY condition as we head into the upcoming week. There are currently zero items weighing on the model currently and it is not our job to try to guess when and if there will be any in the future. The trend continues to be higher highs and higher lows and until this changes there is no reason to try to top-call this market.
What are our concerns? We are concerned about the non-stop uptrend off the November lows without a 5% pull back. We are concerned about the non-stop uptrend from the 2011 lows without a 20% pull back. We are concerned about the lack of volume in the overall major market indexes as we continue to hit new all-time highs. We are concerned that none of our new longs are exploding out of the gate immediately producing the past gains they used to produce under these exact same previous conditions. However, these are just concerns and are not actionable problems.
When the index finally starts to change character, our new longs fail in succession repeatedly, we start to see churning and distribution in the overall market indexes, our current holdings start triggering profit taking signals across the board, we start to see leading stocks fail late-stage breakouts, and we start to see actionable short signals then we can start taking all of our concerns seriously. Until then, the trend is up, the market is hitting new highs, and our new long positions continue to make money immediately following a signal.
As long as all of that is occurring there is nothing to do but ride the trend higher. I mean, the mere fact every intelligent market analyst and every intelligent macro trader in wall street thinks stocks should have topped by now or should top sooner, makes me believe the contrary approach is the right approach on the short-term. As long as we continue to see top callers, the uptrend has the sentiment it needs to continue to move higher. When these talking heads flip and finally capitulate to the long side then we can start to seriously consider the contrarian position of looking for a top when the smart folks are speaking of bullish matters.
Great luck this upcoming week. We shall see if more highs or in store for us. Aloha from a very windy west side of Maui.
TOP CURRENT HOLDINGS – PERCENT RETURN – DATE OF SIGNAL
EAC long – 191% – 12/17/12
HIMX long – 164% – 12/19/12
POWR long – 118% – 12/11/12
CAMP long – 118% – 4/26/12
CSU long – 112% – 9/4/12
FLT long – 82% – 9/6/12
RVLT long – 82% – 3/26/13
HEES long – 79% – 9/4/12
GNMK long – 70% – 11/16/12
ASTM short – 69% – 7/17/12
WAGE long – 65% – 1/8/13
SBGI long – 55% – 3/22/13
BBSI long – 40% – 2/13/13
V long – 38% – 9/6/12
GMCR long – 37% – 4/23/13
WDC long – 33% – 1/9/12
PFBI long – 32% – 11/19/12
MNTX long – 30% – 1/17/13
HTA long – 29% – 1/2/13
AMWD long – 26% – 2/1/13
Sunday, May 05, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio is back under a full BUY signal across the board as all major market indexes are hitting new 52-week highs with the SP-500 hitting new all-time highs. The model was in a NEUTRAL pattern coming into the week but on 4/29 the Nasdaq and SP500 switched to a BUY mode with new highs in their respective indexes hit. Following the switch in those two markets, the Russell 2000 and DJIA switched to BUY on 5/3. Overall, it is clear skies in the general market and the distribution day count has been dropped on our end with the market in new 52-week high ground.
The good news is that volume was average to above average on the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 which gives us a decent confirmation on the price overall price action. While it would be lovely to see volume well above average on this rally to new highs, we are quite pleased to actually see average volume on the recent move higher.
Unfortunately, this surge in volume would have been much preferred in November when the rally started but getting average to above average volume is quite nice considering all the previous low volume rallies we have had to be a part of the past four years. The lower volume rallies would not be a terrible problem if it was not being preceded by heavier volume selloffs. This makes for quite an odd Accumulation/Distribution ratio/rating in regards to the overall indexes.
This is why we continue to stress paying attention to leading stocks and their volume only, ignoring the volume in the overall market, during this QE/ZIRP twilight zone market cycle. As long as stocks continue to breakout on volume out of sound consolidation patterns, we will continue to go long our signals as they are produced.
Have a wonderful and profitable upcoming week. Aloha from an overcast yet still very warm and cozy Maui.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
HIMX long – 173% – 12/19/12
EAC long – 141% – 12/17/12
RVLT long – 120% – 3/26/13
CAMP long – 111% – 4/26/12
POWR long – 110% – 12/11/12
CSU long – 108% – 9/4/12
FLT long – 80% – 9/6/12
GNMK long – 72% – 11/16/12
ASTM short – 71% – 7/17/12
HEES long – 69% – 9/4/12
SBGI long – 49% – 3/22/13
WAGE long – 46% – 1/8/13
V long – 40% – 8/31/12
PFBI long – 32% – 11/19/12
CHUY long – 31% – 1/10/13
WDC long – 31% – 1/9/13
BBSI long – 30% – 2/13/13
MNTX long – 29% – 1/17/13
HTA long – 27% – 1/2/13
AMWD long – 25% – 2/1/13
VIPS long – 25% – 3/14/13
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