Big Wave Trading incorporates a Mechanical Disciplined Signal Generated System and uses a Market Model system to invest profitably in the stock and futures markets. Big Wave Trading also incorporates a strict risk management system and cuts losses immediately if a new purchase does not work in our favored direction right away.
Showing posts with label POWR. Show all posts
Showing posts with label POWR. Show all posts
Sunday, September 08, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
Aloha everyone. The Big Wave Trading model is in a mixed variety of signals, with the Nasdaq currently under a BUY signal, the SP500 and Russell 2000 are under a NEUTRAL signal, and the DJIA is under a SELL signal. It is not too often you will see us under all three signals at once but here we are.
Overall, the market does have the “feel” of a market that is ready to launch higher. The reasoning behind this is our analysis of leading stocks, leading industry groups, speculative stocks, and the technical condition of the overall market. Right now, things look really good for a continuation in prices in the uptrending direction.
We are basically fully invested here, with only a small hedge working in the SDOW. This position will be closed out, obviously, if we switch back to a NEUTRAL or BUY signal in the Dow. We are not fully invested based on what we believe or think the market will do. We are fully invested because so many leading stocks have triggered legitimate buy signals that we have utilized all our capital. Do you know what year it was the last time I was all out of cash to deploy in the market? 2003. So the thinking is that based on past analysis the rest of the year should be solid.
Still, do you think we will not sell EVERYTHING if the market tells us to? You know we will. If the market reverses, sell limits or hit, or our big winners reverse on huge volume, trust me we will not waste any time running to the exits and reversing our positions to the short side via leveraged ETFs. At Big Wave Trading the most important thing is to be prepared for everything. Nothing in life is ever guaranteed. Shock events and black swans show up all the time.
However, we would like to point out a correlation between the current market and that 2003 market that remains my best trading period ever in my life. In 2003 we went into Iraq. Now it is 2013 and we are going into Syria. Is history repeating itself again? Probably not. But it sure is rhyming.
Have a wonderful upcoming week. I wish you all the best. Aloha from Maui.
TOP CURRENT HOLDINGS – PERCENT GAIN – DATE OF SIGNAL
CAMP long – 202% – 4/26/12
WAGE long – 145% – 1/8/13
FLT long – 132% – 9/6/12
POWR long – 123% – 12/11/12
HEES long – 103% – 9/4/12
INSM long – 102% – 4/19/13
MEI long – 92% – 4/10/13
ADUS long – 81% – 4/22/13
LGF long – 54% – 4/19/13
WDC long – 48% – 1/9/13
GMCR long – 46% – 4/23/13
CHUY long – 42% – 1/10/13
TRLA long – 38% – 6/28/13
V long – 37% – 8/31/12
ADS long – 37% – 12/11/12
OCN long – 37% – 5/8/13
DDD long – 35% – 4/30/13
CCF long – 34% – 6/28/13
WST long – 34% – 1/22/13
LOCK long – 33% – 5/20/13
BEAV long – 31% – 3/5/13
Sunday, August 04, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Market Model remains under a BUY signal with zero pressure weighing on it. With the indexes hitting all-time highs and leading stocks leading the way higher, everything is aligned for further potential price appreciation in all asset classes.
Stocks continue to trend higher and while it would have been very nice to see the market consolidate gains this summer allowing the 200 day moving average to catch up with price it is not in the cards. Still, there is no reason to complain that stocks are continuing to move higher as we are well positioned here. Still, it would be nice to see stocks consolidate these gains and get that 200 day moving average closer to price. With the market so extended from this line, making new investments here is a very risky proposition. If you are not already long, it is going to be very hard to play catch up.
However, playing catch up has indeed been very possible as earnings season is allowing plenty of opportunities to play catch up with leading stocks producing some nice gains following earnings and after those earnings. The buyable gap ups have worked very well the past two weeks. The best play, for our intraday chat room members, by far, has been buying calls or straddling/strangling stocks with strong EPS/sales growth that are heavily shorted. Recent straddles in FB and QCOR has made one or our members very wealthy and with earnings season still in full swing there should be other opportunities in the upcoming couple of weeks.
If you are not playing the calls, straddles, or strangles and are not buying the buyable gap ups, it has been a rough go for EOD trading signals. Recent signals on the long side have not performed as well the past two weeks as I would like to see in an uptrending tape. However, most signals are not of the high quality standard that previous signals were due to the fact that this market has been well extended past its upper regression line and 200 day moving average for a while now. This is why recent signals have been weak and why we have kept them small relative to more recent signals.
Still, it is a strong tape and many more signals are sure to present themselves as we move along. As long as the trend trends higher, there is no reason to top call this QE tape. Set your buy stops in leading stocks and get long at the pivot points, straddle the heavily shorted leading stocks, or buy the buyable gap ups. These trades have been doing very well in this most recent move higher. Buying stocks on an EOD basis following a powerful breakout is still not seeing the follow through that we became accustomed to from 1996-2008. So keep that in mind as if we continue to move higher from here.
While a nice consolidation allowing the 200 DMA would be nice to see it is what it is and this trend is strong. Don’t fight the tape and whatever you do NEVER top call a strong market. One day, this market will go climatic or parabolic, leading stocks will too, and lower highs and lower lows will be set in leading stocks in leading industries. That is when you need to be on the lookout for a top. Until then, ride the trend which is your friend higher.
Have a great rest of your weekend and I wish you the best during the upcoming week. Aloha from a very beautiful west side of Maui. Aloha!!!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain since Signal – Signal Date
CAMP long – 178% – 4/26/12
POWR long – 149% – 12/11/12
RVLT long – 133% – 3/26/13
FLT long – 121% – 9/6/12
WAGE long – 95% – 1/8/13
HEES long – 94% – 9/4/12
CSU long – 88% – 9/4/12
ADUS long – 74% – 4/22/13
CHUY long – 57% – 1/10/13
SBGI long – 54% – 3/22/13
TECUA long – 49% – 2/5/13
WDC long – 48% – 1/9/13
INSM long – 48% – 4/19/13
V long – 43% – 8/31/12
LGF long – 42% – 4/19/13
TRLA long – 42% – 6/28/13
GLL long – 40% – 2/14/13
ADS long – 40% – 12/11/12
MEI long – 38% – 4/10/13
OCN long – 28% – 5/8/13
DDD long – 25% – 4/30/13
Saturday, July 27, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading portfolio remains under a BUY signal with only a minor amount of pressure on the indexes following the weak price action on Tuesday and Wednesday in the overall market. Besides that there is no pressure in our model as leading stocks, speculative stocks, and the overall market continue to trend higher in lockstep.
With this being the case, it does not make much sense to drone on and on about the minute details of the trading action the past week. It was a very successful week in terms of playing straddles/strangles before earnings on a few stocks like FB, BIDU, and TRIP and buyable gap ups remain the best way to return alpha in this low volume uptrending market.
Overall, it was a decent week with not much to dissect or psycho-analyze. There is no need to waste any more of your valuable weekend time. Enjoy the rest of your weekend and I wish you the best during the upcoming week. Aloha!!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain since Signal Date – Date of Signal
RVLT long – 191% – 3/26/13
CAMP long – 167% – 4/26/12
POWR long – 143% – 12/11/12
FLT long – 103% – 9/6/12
CSU long – 91% – 9/4/12
HEES long – 91% – 9/4/12
WAGE long – 90% – 1/8/13
SBGI long – 64% – 3/22/13
ADUS long – 64% – 4/22/13
INSM long – 50% – 4/19/13
V long – 50% – 8/31/12
TECUA long – 47% – 2/5/13
WDC long – 42% – 1/9/13
MEI long – 41% – 4/10/13
LGF long – 38% – 4/19/13
CHUY long – 37% – 1/10/13
GLL long – 34% – 2/14/13
GMCR long – 34% – 4/23/13
ADS long – 32% – 12/11/12
PFBI long – 31% – 11/19/12
WST long – 30% – 1/22/13
BEAV long – 28% – 3/5/13
CCF long – 26% – 6/28/13
DDD long – 25% – 4/30/13
Sunday, July 14, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading portfolio is currently under a BUY mode across the board, with the Nasdaq fully switching to a BUY signal on the 9th with the SP-500 and DJIA following on the 11th. These indexes now join the Russell 2000 which was placed under a BUY signal last Friday. The Russell 2000 is leading the current model switch and was able to build on the gains nicely the past week. Every index performed well this past week. It was nothing short of extremely impressive.
What makes it even more impressive is that the rally in the overall market is on fumes. That goes for many recent breakouts in high priced highly liquid CANSLIM quality securities. Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of leading stocks breaking out on volume. However, there have been too many TSLA, SPWR, PCLN, GOOG, AMZN, MCD type moves for my personal liking. At the same time, while I may not like it, it doesn’t matter. Those that are focusing on price action alone in leading stocks are enjoying their gains as long as they are buying at the exact pivot points in their technical consolidations. For those that can not watch the action all day, I will remind you that you can use buy stops to buy a stock as soon as it breaks out to new price highs.
Even with the overall low volume, the rally is still impressive. Many stocks are moving higher on volume and many others are setting up in price consolidation patterns with solid accumulation/distribution patterns. I am sure that even if the market pulls back here, knowing that the Fed is in full-on QE/ZIRP/POMO mode, support should be found in the overall market. This hypothesis is based on the current technical patterns remaining as they are and in turn developing into even more bullish technical patterns in the upcoming weeks. If individual stock price patterns falter, this assumption on price action will be nullified. Still, the trend with POMO/QE/ZIRP is very clear. Pullbacks are to be bought and stocks can not sell off more than 10%. That will definitely change one day and this will definitely lead a lot of people that are greedy into the poorhouse but until then you simply can not fight the overwhelming trend.
Calling tops has been killer to traders the past five years and yet I still see constantly on stock twits and facebook. It was not too long ago on 5/22 that so many new traders/investors were confident this market had top. Now these same traders find themselves underinvested and/or not invested at all. This is the purpose of the market. It is there to fool most of the people most of the time. Looks like they were fooled again. This is why in times like this, if you do not have a system, and invest on emotions, you are going to have a bad time. Emotions are a killer in the stock market. They can only hurt returns over the long run. You must learn to eliminate them, if you are going to learn how to hold stocks like the stocks you see listed below for the big long-term gains. The big money will always be in the sitting and in this market sitting has never been harder. Trust me. I don’t even come close to seeing the gains I saw in my personal accounts from 1998-2008. On top of that, stocks simply do not move like they used to. Compare the performances below to some of my past big winners and you will see times have changed.
One day they will go back to normal. However, until that day happens, it is what it is and price action is all that matters. The trend is your friend until it bends at the end. Make sure that you don’t show up late to the trend and ride it lower when it bends and all the smart money is exiting. The Nasdaq has been up 12 of the past 13 stock market sessions yet I see many traders looking to get heavily long here. Seems a tad late to me. However, what do I know compared to what the market knows? The exact same thing you know. Nothing. The market discounts all. Price action is all that is real. Continue to follow price and ignore volume. In this QE world it is leaving many traders underinvested. You must learn to discount it.
Have a great rest of your weekend and a wonderful upcoming week. Make sure you obey your systems, especially your stops. Always cut your losses short. Never ever ride a losing position and never ever add to a losing position. Especially in a melt-up tape like we have now.
PS: Can you tell I just got done reading my third Jesse Livermore book of the summer? It is an annual ritual. I recommend it both for new and experienced traders. Once again, have a great weekend. Aloha from Maui!!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain Since Signal – Date Of Signal
CAMP long – 181% – 4/26/12
RVLT long – 165% – 3/26/13
POWR long – 150% – 12/11/12
CSU long – 107% – 9/4/12
HEES long – 95% – 9/4/12
FLT long – 93% – 9/6/12
WAGE long – 90% – 1/8/13
ADUS long – 86% – 4/22/13
SBGI long – 71% – 3/22/13
CHUY long – 69% – 1/10/13
WDC long – 54% – 1/9/13
TECUA long – 49% – 2/5/13
V long – 48% – 8/31/12
GLL long – 47% – 2/14/13
INSM long – 44% – 4/19/13
MEI long – 40% – 4/10/13
LGF long – 39% – 4/19/13
ADS long – 31% – 12/11/12
WST long – 30% – 1/22/13
DDD long – 27% – 4/30/13
BEAV long – 26% – 3/5/13
Saturday, July 06, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio is under multiple signals currently, as small caps are significantly outperforming big caps. Overall the Model is weighed mixed BUY to NEUTRAL with the Russell 2000 being under a clear BUY signal, the Nasdaq under a BUY/NEUTRAL signal, and the SP-500, DJIA, and NYSE being under NEUTRAL signals. For what it is worth, the Nasdaq will switch to a BUY mode with a new high printed on the index, with or without volume.
As has been mentioned here every weekend since May 22nd, all signals should be taken with a grain of salt during choppy summer time sessions where volatility increases. This also being a QE/POMO market, all SELL signals must be taken with baby steps until a clear roll over on heavy volume is triggered in all major market indexes, leading stocks, ETFs, inverse ETFs, leveraged ETFs, and inverse leveraged ETFs. Unless there is a complete confirmation, funny money printed by the Federal Reserve will continue to act as a floor. In time that will change but for now betting against that trend is foolhardy.
With the switch in the Russell 2000 to a BUY mode and a switch in the Nasdaq to a BUY/NEUTRAL mode, we can now operate a little bit more aggressively on the long side in small cap and technology related positions. We are also taking off our remaining hedges and are now only long individual stocks in the managed accounts. If the market decides to roll back over, we will not hesitate to start building our hedges once again.
The biggest lesson to be learned this past week is that trying to call or predict a top in this market is, for now, not a very profitable methodology when the tape is dead. The saying “never short a dull market” comes to mind, first off. Second, “never short a QE/POMO market” follows right behind. The bottom line is that is just does not pay to be a “committed” bull or bear. This market remains very unfriendly to trends and trend followers, overall, and staying constantly neutral and flowing like water is the best advice I can give to anyone trying to navigate it.
Overall, it is shaping up to be another no-to-low volume rally, following an above average volume sell off. This pattern was never sustainable before 2008 and now it is the norm for the past three years in a row. It is what it is.
OK, it’s time for me to catch one last round of the nine-day swell that has been hitting my backyard in Lahaina. While the market hasn’t been full of action for trend followers lately, at least the Pacific Ocean has been for surfers. If you can’t ride one wave, ride another. Have a great post-holiday weekend. Aloha from Maui!!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain since Signal – Date of Signal
CAMP long – 175% – 4/26/12
POWR long – 140% – 12/11/12
RVLT long – 124% – 3/26/13
CSU long – 100% – 9/4/12
WAGE long – 93% – 1/8/13
FLT long – 89% – 9/6/12
ASTM short – 81% – 7/17/12
HEES long – 80% – 9/4/12
CHUY long – 68% – 1/10/13
SBGI long – 62% – 3/22/13
GLL long – 58% – 2/14/13
ADUS long – 52% – 4/22/13
V long – 48% – 8/31/12
WDC long – 47% – 1/9/13
TECUA long – 46% – 2/5/13
INSM long – 38% – 4/19/13
MEI long – 37% – 4/10/13
LGF long – 31% – 4/19/13
Sunday, June 30, 2013
Big Wave Trading Weekend Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
It was a great week the past week on Maui and a good week overall for the stock market. The market did rally the past week but all the action came on below average volume until Friday when EOQ and EOM trading took over. As we know by now, from 1850-2008 this would be considered a bad thing but from 2008-now low volume rallies following heavy volume selloffs have been bullish. So I would not necessarily be too cocksure that the market is failing here at the 50 day moving average, just yet.
While we are under a SELL signal, all it would take to switch back to NEUTRAL during the summer months would be a close above the 50 DMA on all three major market indexes (the Russell 2000 is already above the line). If that occurs, the situation will still remain fluid as there are a lot of individual stocks that need some work to clean up their current consolidation patterns.
That being the case, we still have a lot of leading stocks making new intermediate term and new highs and plenty of stocks still forming decent consolidation patterns. When you combine this with the weakness in bonds, the higher amount of stocks hitting new lows, and the fact that the Fed is hinting at tapering and there are all sorts of legitimate reasons to remain very NEUTRAL here.
And that is exactly where we are heading into this holiday short week. While we are under a SELL signal our personal feelings are extremely NEUTRAL on the current trend. I will have to either see more breakdowns or breakouts to move to either the bearish or bullish camp respectively. As of now, we just have too many crosscurrent and mixed signals to work with.
This means new positions will remain small in individual stocks, on the long side, until a BUY signal is triggered or a “perfect” signal is triggered (extremely rare to almost non-existent during a SELL signal) in an individual stock. New positions on the short side remain scant to non-existent during this volatile period. However, as the market ticks down and ends weak each session we will continue to add to our current hedges that are being built in inverse leveraged long and leveraged short ETF positions.
Enjoy the upcoming fireworks in the stock market and at your local hot spot. There is a lot of data coming out, around the world, during this short week so I am sure it will not be a boring one. But hell what do I know. Nobody, including myself, knows what tomorrow will bring. The future is absolutely impossible to predict. You can definitely game it and be ready for it but you can never know it. Aloha and have a wonderful holiday week.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain since Signal – Date of Purchase
CAMP long 159% – 4/26/12
RVLT long – 139% – 3/26/13
POWR long – 132% – 12/11/12
CSU long – 93% – 9/4/12
WAGE long – 90% – 1/8/13
FLT long – 82% – 9/6/12
ASTM short – 79% – 7/17/12
HEES long – 75% – 9/4/12
SBGI long – 66% – 3/22/13
GLL long – 60% – 2/14/13
ADUS long – 60% – 4/22/13
INSM long – 59% – 4/19/13
CHUY long – 53% – 1/10/13
TECUA long – 43% – 2/5/13
V long – 42% – 8/31/12
WDC long – 41% – 1/9/13
PFBI long – 28% – 11/19/12
MEI long – 26% – 4/10/13
WST long – 25% – 1/22/13
Sunday, June 16, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a NEUTRAL condition, following a week of choppy price action. The overall market continued its choppy trading the previous week with neither the bulls or bears asserting any real directional power. The bottom line is that we remain trapped between the recent highs and lows of all the major market indexes during the past month. Our model will not move to either a BUY or SELL mode until this trading range is broken.
The other possible model change could occur if the indexes make a powerful one day price move on higher volume. If that occurs and the indexes still remain range bound it is possible, if there are leading stocks in confirmation of the move, that we could switch before the trading range is resolved.
If we were forced to make a bet on which way the market is going to break next, we would laugh in the face of someone suggesting such a preposterous notion. However, if we were asked to analyze the current situation of leading and other individual stocks in relationship to the pullback in the overall indexes, that would be a welcome logical request.
When it comes to leading stocks in the market, based on EPS and RS ratings, everything is crawling along well. Our current holdings and leading stocks have done remotely well during the pullback in the market, with many of these stocks forming constructive consolidation patterns that historically should lead to further price breakouts. Some of our favorite examples include SCTY, TSLA, TNGO, DPZ, INVN, BLMN, SWHC, LNKD, and many others. These stocks are either consolidating nicely or are trending higher, despite the weak market. This, in our analysis, is a positive sign for a possible resolution higher.
This being said, nothing is concrete and for all we know the market might break out to new highs to just reverse lower on huge volume. The point is that anything can happen in the stock market and if you are not ready for anything and everything, then at some point you will be caught off guard and pay the price.
We shall see what the upcoming week has in store for all of us traders. As it stands, we continue to be very neutral here ready for anything to happen. Once again, based on our current holdings and leading stocks, we should expect a resolution higher. In reality, however, remember, anything can happen and everything must be prepared for.
Have a wonderful rest of your weekend. Aloha from a very beautiful, warm, and sunny west side of Maui. Aloha!!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return Since Signal Date – Date of Signal
RVLT long – 162% – 3/26/13
EAC long – 156% – 12/17/12
CAMP long – 136% – 4/26/12
POWR long – 135% – 12/11/12
CSU long – 106% – 9/4/12
FLT long – 97% – 9/6/12
HEES long – 86% – 9/4/12
ASTM short – 73% – 7/17/12
INSM long – 68% – 4/19/13
WAGE long – 63% – 1/8/13
ADUS long – 59% – 4/22/13
CHUY long – 55% – 1/10/13
SBGI long – 50% – 3/22/13
WDC long – 45% – 1/9/13
V long – 41% – 8/31/12
GMCR long – 39% – 4/23/13
BBSI long – 38% – 2/13/13
TECUA long – 36% – 2/5/13
GLL long – 27% – 2/14/13
PFBI long – 26% – 11/19/12
DDD long – 25% – 4/30/13
Sunday, June 09, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a NEUTRAL condition but did see the model switch to a cosmetic-SELL mode on Wednesday only to be flipped right back to NEUTRAL on Friday. This quick flip-flip was not shocking on a discretionary basis as the signal triggered with only the NYSE under the 50 day moving average. On top of that, as we have constantly warned, since 2011, SELL signals are going to have to be confirmed in all indexes, ETFs, inverse-ETFs, inverse-leveraged-ETFs, and with leading stocks breaking down, before any SELL signal is actionable on a position taking basis. QE, ZIRP, and POMO makes taking SELL signals nearly impossible and it is not anything we will be interested in seeing until we see a real parabolic/climax conclusion to all of this economy propping.
Despite the fake signal, it was an overall decent week. The bad news is that our early hedges that were doing nicely hedging our longs by Wednesday left us with mostly losses by Friday. However, what turned out to be great news for us, on the flip side, we did not produce one single full sell signal on Wednesday, when our model did a false switch. The fact that the market cracked and we had zero sell signals in our long holdings was a hint that the market was stronger than the tape was letting on. On top of that, what turned out to be the worst missed trade on our end since 2011, we saw an extremely high quality long signal producing in what is currently a non-CANSLIM stock (it will be shortly in the upcoming quarters). That stock was TTS. The signal it produced that day would be considered an 8.5 out of 10 using our internal criteria and that is an extremely high rating on a new long signal (obviously 9s and especially 10s are very very rare).
Unfortunately for me and my portfolios, we have never received such a beautiful signal on a day where we switched to a SELL mode. This has never happened. I began trading my trading career in 1996, went full-time in 1998, and from these moments have never seen such a signal on a day of a SELL signal. So what to do? Well, since I didn’t consider it “perfect” (a 9.5 or 10 out of 10) I decided to pass and let the model take control. That was a big big mistake as TTS has rocketed higher 13% in the two days following this lovely signal. On top of that, the SELL is now NEUTRAL. Lesson learned.
What was the lessen? Well from now on I know that when the market is trending above the 50 day moving average on all of the most important major market indexes, we have many long positions holding up well in our current portfolios, we have many stocks still setting up in strong bases, we have very few stocks breaking down hard in my short scans, and we get a near-perfect high-quality long signal on a day when we do switch to a SELL we take the trade.
Now, I have to watch TTS do what it is going to do and “hope” that it produces some sort of follow-up signal to try to get me long this wonderful pattern. We shall see if I get a second chance. I will not be holding my breath, however. Still, it was a very important lesson learned and goes to show that even with almost 20 years of full-time stock market experience you can still teach an old dog new tricks. Well played Mr. Stock Market. Well played.
Big Wave Trading never needs to learn a lesson the hard way twice.
Have a great upcoming rest of the week everyone. It’s been a nice weekend, despite the TTS missed trade on our end. Truth be told, I am more upset that the season finale of Game of Thrones is tonight than I am I missed that trade. As far as I am concerned, Game of Thrones, should never end and never go on break. Just keep the camera rolling and George R.R. Martin writing. Aloha!!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return Since Signal Date – Signal Date
EAC long – 228% – 12/17/12
HIMX long – 185% – 12/19/12
CAMP long – 132% – 4/26/12
POWR long – 125% – 12/11/12
RVLT long – 114% – 3/26/13
CSU long – 107% – 9/4/12
FLT long – 95% – 9/6/12
HEES long – 82% – 9/4/12
ASTM short – 72% – 7/17/12
INSM long – 72% – 4/19/13
GNMK long – 71% – 11/16/12
WAGE long – 64% – 1/8/13
WDC long – 46% – 1/9/13
BBSI long – 45% – 2/13/13
ADUS long – 41% – 4/22/13
V long – 40% – 8/31/12
CHUY long – 40% – 1/10/13
SBGI long – 39% – 3/22/13
GMCR long – 35% – 4/23/13
TECUA long – 31% – 2/5/13
GLL long – 31% – 2/14/13
AMWD long – 30% – 2/1/13
Saturday, June 01, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Directional Model has switched from a BUY signal to a NEUTRAL signal, following the final hour of action during Friday’s stock market session. The vicious sell off on Friday, combined with the churning and distribution days adding up this month, is more than enough evidence that it is time to be fluid and ready for a move in any direction in the overall market.
Longer-term there is a lot of support in the overall market that could easily lead us to further upside price. However, on the short-term we are indeed extended on all major market averages in relation to the 200 day moving average. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 also remain a bit extended from their respective 50 day moving averages. Therefore, a pull back here is not a surprise and is in fact welcomed if we want to continue with higher prices in a more measured and somewhat safe manner.
What will be more important to watch from here on out is how the major indexes will act around these key averages. Support at these key areas, along with high quality stocks showing Relative Strength to the overall market, would be indicative of a market that wants to continue higher over the intermediate term.
If, instead, the market decides to find some support, begin to bounce, and then rolls over below the 50 day moving averages on the indexes, then we can start to prepare for some form of correction. Right now, most of our long positions (you can see 75% of our current holdings below as 3/4 of our portfolio holdings are up 25%+ per trade), are riding their key moving average lines higher and if they start to break below we will continue to take profits, cut our losses, and add to our hedges.
Right now, since we are heavily long, we have been building a hedge in case the market does decide to correct harshly over the next couple of weeks. If the market decides to move lower, we will continue to pair back our long positions and add to our hedges. If the market decides to roll over and enter a prolonged downtrend, we will be ready via our market direction model and we will go short stocks that produce short signals accordingly.
For now, it is best to be ready for anything. Emotions are very strong for those in the bull and bear camp. That can cause some extreme short-term price movements, as we saw in the final hour on Friday. Therefore, the best plan is to have a plan for every outcome. We do this on a daily basis at Big Wave Trading and that is why you will find very little to zero emotions involved in our methodologies. It is all about price signals. It is never about opinions or emotions. The only good opinion is no opinion, in the stock market.
Have a great weekend everyone. It looks like our summer shores are in store for another large swell. Good news for me. Once again, have a great weekend. Aloha!!!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Signal Date
EAC long – 204% – 12/17/12
HIMX long – 201% – 12/19/12
CAMP long – 134% – 4/26/12
RVLT long – 128% – 3/26/13
CSU long – 112% – 9/4/12
POWR long – 108% – 12/11/12
FLT long – 95% – 9/6/12
HEES long – 86% – 9/4/12
INSM long – 79% – 4/19/13
ASTM short – 71% – 7/17/12
GNMK long – 71% – 11/16/12
WAGE long – 60% – 1/8/13
SBGI long – 48% – 3/22/13
ADUS long – 45% – 4/22/13
WDC long – 44% – 1/9/13
CHUY long – 39% – 1/10/13
V long – 38% – 8/31/12
BBSI long – 38% – 3/22/13
PFBI long – 31% – 11/19/12
GMCR long – 30% – 4/23/13
GLL long – 30% – 2/14/13
AMWD long – 28% – 2/1/13
DDD long – 26% – 4/30/13
Sunday, May 19, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a BUY signal and currently has zero issues weighing on it presently. On the short-term the market is very extended in price compared to trailing key moving averages. Logic dictates that a natural pullback to some form of support levels (fibonacci, price lows, or a moving average) should occur on the short-term. However, when dealing with our current reality we know that we could easily melt-up further in this QE environment before a logical pullback does occur.
With the current uptrend the way it is–where volume is not part of the equation in our analysis–price will continue to be our sole signal generator. During the past week, we did see the Nasdaq suffer what appears to be on the surface a second churning session. However, following this churning session, the Nasdaq subsequently went to new highs. Therefore, for now it is only a surface scratch. For those sessions to have any weighing in the overall model we will have to see further distribution days that then lead price below these two sessions. Until that occurs, we will continue to stay the course.
There were no major developments this week in our personal stock holdings, other than the fact that we have not generated any new long signals the past three market sessions. We believe this might possibly indicate that the market is too extended on the short-term. In saying this, it would not shock us if we got new long signals on Monday. Our current holdings continue to look very solid and we see plenty of stocks setting up in very strong consolidation patterns (ie…INVN) that could easily be another launching pad for another leg higher in this overall market.
The surf continues to be absolutely huge in my backyard home break and I am going to go out and enjoy myself until I get beat up too much or get stung one too many times by all of the man-of-wars that are out there. I look like I have been hit by lightning at this point. Have a great profitable upcoming week. Aloha.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain Since Signal – Date of Signal
EAC long – 243% – 12/17/12
HIMX long – 216% – 12/19/12
RVLT long – 134% – 3/26/13
CAMP long – 118% – 4/26/12
CSU long – 114% – 9/4/12
POWR long – 109% – 12/11/12
HEES long – 86% – 9/4/12
FLT long – 84% – 9/6/12
WAGE long – 75% – 1/8/13
GNMK long – 74% – 11/16/12
ASTM short – 71% – 7/17/12
SBGI long – 47% – 3/22/13
BBSI long – 47% – 2/13/13
INSM long – 45% – 4/19/13
V long – 43% – 8/31/12
GMCR long – 41% – 4/23/13
Sunday, May 12, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolios remain under a full BUY condition as we head into the upcoming week. There are currently zero items weighing on the model currently and it is not our job to try to guess when and if there will be any in the future. The trend continues to be higher highs and higher lows and until this changes there is no reason to try to top-call this market.
What are our concerns? We are concerned about the non-stop uptrend off the November lows without a 5% pull back. We are concerned about the non-stop uptrend from the 2011 lows without a 20% pull back. We are concerned about the lack of volume in the overall major market indexes as we continue to hit new all-time highs. We are concerned that none of our new longs are exploding out of the gate immediately producing the past gains they used to produce under these exact same previous conditions. However, these are just concerns and are not actionable problems.
When the index finally starts to change character, our new longs fail in succession repeatedly, we start to see churning and distribution in the overall market indexes, our current holdings start triggering profit taking signals across the board, we start to see leading stocks fail late-stage breakouts, and we start to see actionable short signals then we can start taking all of our concerns seriously. Until then, the trend is up, the market is hitting new highs, and our new long positions continue to make money immediately following a signal.
As long as all of that is occurring there is nothing to do but ride the trend higher. I mean, the mere fact every intelligent market analyst and every intelligent macro trader in wall street thinks stocks should have topped by now or should top sooner, makes me believe the contrary approach is the right approach on the short-term. As long as we continue to see top callers, the uptrend has the sentiment it needs to continue to move higher. When these talking heads flip and finally capitulate to the long side then we can start to seriously consider the contrarian position of looking for a top when the smart folks are speaking of bullish matters.
Great luck this upcoming week. We shall see if more highs or in store for us. Aloha from a very windy west side of Maui.
TOP CURRENT HOLDINGS – PERCENT RETURN – DATE OF SIGNAL
EAC long – 191% – 12/17/12
HIMX long – 164% – 12/19/12
POWR long – 118% – 12/11/12
CAMP long – 118% – 4/26/12
CSU long – 112% – 9/4/12
FLT long – 82% – 9/6/12
RVLT long – 82% – 3/26/13
HEES long – 79% – 9/4/12
GNMK long – 70% – 11/16/12
ASTM short – 69% – 7/17/12
WAGE long – 65% – 1/8/13
SBGI long – 55% – 3/22/13
BBSI long – 40% – 2/13/13
V long – 38% – 9/6/12
GMCR long – 37% – 4/23/13
WDC long – 33% – 1/9/12
PFBI long – 32% – 11/19/12
MNTX long – 30% – 1/17/13
HTA long – 29% – 1/2/13
AMWD long – 26% – 2/1/13
Sunday, May 05, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio is back under a full BUY signal across the board as all major market indexes are hitting new 52-week highs with the SP-500 hitting new all-time highs. The model was in a NEUTRAL pattern coming into the week but on 4/29 the Nasdaq and SP500 switched to a BUY mode with new highs in their respective indexes hit. Following the switch in those two markets, the Russell 2000 and DJIA switched to BUY on 5/3. Overall, it is clear skies in the general market and the distribution day count has been dropped on our end with the market in new 52-week high ground.
The good news is that volume was average to above average on the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 which gives us a decent confirmation on the price overall price action. While it would be lovely to see volume well above average on this rally to new highs, we are quite pleased to actually see average volume on the recent move higher.
Unfortunately, this surge in volume would have been much preferred in November when the rally started but getting average to above average volume is quite nice considering all the previous low volume rallies we have had to be a part of the past four years. The lower volume rallies would not be a terrible problem if it was not being preceded by heavier volume selloffs. This makes for quite an odd Accumulation/Distribution ratio/rating in regards to the overall indexes.
This is why we continue to stress paying attention to leading stocks and their volume only, ignoring the volume in the overall market, during this QE/ZIRP twilight zone market cycle. As long as stocks continue to breakout on volume out of sound consolidation patterns, we will continue to go long our signals as they are produced.
Have a wonderful and profitable upcoming week. Aloha from an overcast yet still very warm and cozy Maui.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
HIMX long – 173% – 12/19/12
EAC long – 141% – 12/17/12
RVLT long – 120% – 3/26/13
CAMP long – 111% – 4/26/12
POWR long – 110% – 12/11/12
CSU long – 108% – 9/4/12
FLT long – 80% – 9/6/12
GNMK long – 72% – 11/16/12
ASTM short – 71% – 7/17/12
HEES long – 69% – 9/4/12
SBGI long – 49% – 3/22/13
WAGE long – 46% – 1/8/13
V long – 40% – 8/31/12
PFBI long – 32% – 11/19/12
CHUY long – 31% – 1/10/13
WDC long – 31% – 1/9/13
BBSI long – 30% – 2/13/13
MNTX long – 29% – 1/17/13
HTA long – 27% – 1/2/13
AMWD long – 25% – 2/1/13
VIPS long – 25% – 3/14/13
Sunday, April 28, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a NEUTRAL condition, following this week’s action. While the price action was very strong with many stocks producing large moves, the overall indexes are still trapped in a trading range between their respective recent 1-month highs and lows. While a resolution to the upside does appear to be imminent and all but certain based on the action of stocks, it is still not guaranteed. There
fore, the situation remains fluid and the next switch in the model will occur once prices either breakout or breakdown out of the current consolidation range.
Overall, despite all the noise that has been flying around the market lately, the trend still remains up in this QE environment. As long as we are in a world where central banks can print their way out of short-term problems, we must respect that any selloff will be contained and supported. Until interest rates begin to rise or the Fed hints that they are about to rise, we must assume that a real floor (ie…reality) will not be found. There is a major bifurcation between economic reality on the ground and the economic reality of the stock market. There has never been this much of a divergence between macro and micro in the history of US markets and I think it is about as clear as an example that you can have in regards to the USA becoming a serfdom where 3% of the haves control the 97% of the have-nots.
So as long as this is the reality we are in, it is the reality we must deal with. Low volume rallies, low volume support, and new highs on low volume following heavy and constant distribution will continue to be the norm. It is not historically what market historians are used to dealing with but we have never had a global economy where every nation basically moves in lock-step ever before. The bottom line is that it is what it is. It would be extremely nice to go back to the way it was before 2009. However, that is wishful thinking and does nothing for our bottom line.
What does help the bottom line? A disciplined, no-emotion, back-tested approach to price action. As you can see below, we are dealing with the market quite nicely. What is unfortunate is that these positions are not there usual 10-20% each across the board in the BWT portfolios. However, when you have a market where price and volume metrics that you have used your entire career continues to not work, you have to trade according to your risk tolerance. In this kind of out-of-sync price/volume environment, I don’t mind keeping positions smaller and more diversified. It continues to be too risky to get heavily invested in any one signal as we were constantly before the 2009 rally. It is what it is. It isn’t bad. It isn’t good. It just is.
Have a great upcoming week everyone. Great luck in your personal investing/trading. Aloha from the beautiful island of Maui.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain – Date of Signal
EAC long – 141% – 12/17/12
HIMX long – 123% – 12/19/12
POWR long – 114% – 12/11/12
RVLT long – 113% – 3/26/13
CSU long – 96% – 9/4/12
CAMP long – 90% – 4/26/12
GNMK long – 73% – 11/16/12
FLT long – 69% – 9/6/12
ASTM short – 65% – 7/17/12
HEES long – 63% – 9/4/12
SBGI long – 51% – 3/22/13
WAGE long – 45% – 1/8/13
V long – 30% – 8/31/12
CHUY long – 30% – 1/10/13
INSM long – 28% – 4/19/13
BBSI long – 28% – 2/13/13
AXLL long – 28% – 1/4/13
PFBI long – 28% – 11/19/12
HTA long – 25% – 1/2/13
CPSS long – 25% – 1/31/13
Sunday, April 21, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
Due to the distribution this week in all of the major market indexes, the breakdowns in leading stocks, and constant lagging in the Russell 2000, the market direction model has switched to NEUTRAL on all major market indexes.
The short-term current market environment has gotten choppy over the past few weeks and this action is definitely weighing on the model. The lagging Relative Strength of the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 has made this rally all year long suspect but our individual long signals continued to work relatively well despite this. This is more of a byproduct of our long signals coming from big-cap big-board indexes. However, the overall lagging action of the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 was always a cause for concern.
It should not be assumed that since we are now under a NEUTRAL condition that the very next signal is going to be a switch to a SELL mode. While it does appear the market is finally ready for a correction based on the way stocks are acting post-earnings, there are still plenty of leading stocks that are clearly forming decent consolidation patterns. A market reversal back to new highs would have many of these stocks easily breaking out of their current consolidation pattern.
Therefore, it is best to remain very neutral here and wait to see which way the market breaks out of this consolidation zone the Nasdaq, Russell 2000, and SP 500 are in before convicting oneself to one side or the other of this market. We will continue to play individual stocks as they produce signals in either direction, keeping capital very limited in our selections during this bifurcated US economy and stock market. As long as the market rallies overall on low volume, it is going to be very hard to go 5%, 10%, and science forbid 20% long on a new long or short signal. We will just have to keep taking what the market gives us, either concentrating heavily into the best leading stocks in leading industry groups like Biotechs or keeping individual plays at a minimum with tight stops.
The most important play for us right now is to continue to have a lot of cash on hand in case we get a screaming signal to the short side signaling that this market is done on the upside. The other scenario is having a lot of cash on hand in case the market breaks out higher and we get our once-reliable extremely strong price/volume signal to get heavily long a handful of leading stocks. While the latter scenario seems quite implausible it is still a possibility. However, truth be told, we are really waiting to hammer this market on the short side once it becomes apparent the QE low volume stock market manipulation rally is coming to an end. We might still be three years away from that though.
Until then, we will ride the bucking bronco. Have a wonderful and profitable upcoming week everyone. Try not to psychoanalyze everything out there too much. Aloha!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain – Date of Signal
EAC long – 154% – 12/17/12
HIMX long – 130% – 12/19/12
CSU long – 96% – 9/4/12
POWR long – 87% – 12/11/12
CAMP long – 69% – 4/26/12
GNMK long – 69% – 11/16/12
FLT long – 65% – 9/6/12
ASTM short – 64% – 7/17/12
HEES long – 58% – 9/4/12
SBGI long – 41% – 3/22/13
WAGE long – 38% – 1/8/13
CPSS long – 35% – 1/31/13
BBSI long – 34% – 2/13/13
PFBI long – 29% – 11/19/12
AXLL long – 28% – 1/4/13
GLL long – 28% – 2/14/13
V long – 27% – 8/31/12
CHUY long – 25% – 1/10/13
Saturday, April 13, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading portfolio remains under a BUY signal which was regenerated on March 5th. The Russell 2000 was the only index under a NEUTRAL condition heading into the most recent week but has now re-switched back to a BUY mode as well. Overall, following this week’s action, the uptrend remains in tact and there are no current pressures on the BUY signal.
The only problem remains the same problem we have had for four years. There is still a lack of volume conviction in the overall stock market indexes on days when we rally. If there was broad volume across the board, Big Wave Trading would be heavily on margin during an uptrend like we are witnessing. However, without total confirmation across the board BWT continues to operate from a side of caution on new signals as severe sharp corrections are normal in low volume rally market environments.
That being said, there continues to be a plethora of actionable buy signals across various investing methodologies and as long as signals are triggered on an individual stock by stock basis we will continue to go long our signals as they are generated. The only difference from this rally and all other previous rallies pre-2009 is the size of new long commitments. We continue to invest below what we would consider normal size per each new long signal.
Going forward, we will continue to hunt and take action on our long signals and will constantly be vigilant and prepared for a significant correction. As long as the world is printing and commodities are falling, we do not have to worry about inflation or hyper-inflation influencing our dollar’s purchasing power. As long as world-wide QE and ZIRP is in effect, we will continue to focus on price only. Price is all that matter right now and we will continue to keep it simple.
Have a great and profitable upcoming week in the stock market, everyone. Aloha from a very beautiful and warm Maui.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain – Date of Signal
HIMX long – 145% – 12/19/12
EAC long – 139% – 12/17/12
CSU long – 106% – 9/4/12
POWR long – 93% – 12/11/12
FLT long – 73% – 9/6/12
CAMP long – 73% – 4/26/12
HEES long – 67% – 9/4/12
ASTM short – 63% – 7/17/12
GNMK long – 60% – 11/16/12
SBGI long – 51% – 3/22/13
CPSS long – 43% – 1/31/13
WAGE long – 36% – 1/8/13
AXLL long – 35% – 1/4/13
BBSI long – 32% – 2/13/13
Sunday, March 31, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update and Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a BUY signal re-triggered on 3/5/13 following the original signal on 1/2/13. There are currently zero conditions weighing on the model, despite the below average volume. Any assumptions and presumptions we have towards the current volume on the rally have been eliminated due to the QE and ZIRP policy being initiated by the Federal Reserve.
We continue to go long signals as they arise and will not try to guess when the market will “top” or “pull back.” At this point the only signal that we are paying attention to is price. Price is the only thing that matters, as we have been saying all year long. Volume has not mattered on rallies in four years and there is no reason to believe it will matter any time soon.
While it would be nice to see the market pullback for more than a couple of weeks on below average volume and then rally on higher volume it should not be expected. What seems most plausible given the situation that is occurring world wide is that we will end up in another asset bubble where higher valuation multiples are placed on stocks. Despite the lower earnings growth expectations investors are still paying higher prices for stocks believing that the Federal Reserve has eliminated the tail ends of the curve. As all experienced traders know this will eventually end badly.
However, that is not happening yet and the only thing we can do is ride the trend until the end when it will bend. If another asset bubble is to occur we are in great position to profit handsomely and then will be in a better position to sell our winners as they break below key trailing moving averages on heavy volume. If the market can get parabolic that will allow us better entries on the short side (puts).
For now, there is nothing to do but continue to follow price. As you can see below, following a very choppy 2011 and 2012, it is finally paying off like it normally has for us at Big Wave Trading.
Someone asked recently that if the stocks below are our top holdings (top 50%) what are our our worst holdings. We currently have two. Both are automobile related equities and both are showing less than a 1% loss apiece. We do not hold losing positions at Big Wave Trading. Before any order is given to our brokers we know where we will exit if we are wrong. We religiously obey our final exits. We never let a loss run and are quick to leave if we are not proven correct immediately.
As we go through equity/derivative drawdowns like we did in 2011 and 2012 we reduce the size of our positions and are quicker to cut losses. As our equity/derivative profit/loss line trends higher we will subsequently increase size and allow more “wiggle” room in our trades. The bottom line is that losses are never tolerated. They are always eliminated. No excuses.
Have a great rest of your long holiday weekend everyone. Aloha from a very, yet again, windy and overcast Maui.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain – Signal Date
HIMX long – 127% gain – 12/19/13
CSU long – 113% gain – 9/4/12
EAC long – 98% – 12/17/12
POWR long – 96% – 12/11/12
CAMP long – 95% – 4/26/12
FLT long – 72% – 9/6/12
CPSS long – 70% – 1/31/13
HEES long – 70% – 9/4/12
ASTM short – 64% – 7/17/12
GNMK long – 48% – 11/16/12
AXLL long – 46% – 1/4/13
MNTX long – 43% – 1/17/13
WAGE long – 38% – 1/8/13
V long – 32% – 8/31/12
CHUY long – 30% – 1/10/13
Sunday, March 24, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a BUY signal, as the market consolidated recent gains the past week. Volume was lower overall for the week and that is always bullish for a continuation of a trend. Unfortunately, when the market rallies it rallies on below average volume. The good news the past week was the selling volume was also below average.
This action the past week has helped form a lot of solid consolidation patterns out there and two stocks that are on watch from the 3D printing arena include DDD and SSYS. If the market decides to move higher those two stocks will definitely be closely followed. On top of that, there are plenty of other stocks forming constructive weekly consolidation patterns. If the market breaks out to new highs here, expect these stocks to follow.
Another positive for the market was the inability to really sell off following the Cyprus and Eurozone news all week long. The fact the market held up so well, despite this development, is a testament to the power of worldwide QE. When the market does not sell off on bad news, that is always a short-term bullish development. The other side, of course, is that a market that sells off on good news is a market flashing that it is in trouble. So, so far, so good.
As long as leading stocks continue to do well and trend higher there is nothing to do but to follow the trend until it ends. While we are long a lot of stocks doing very well, we have our trailing moving averages to tell us when to get out partially or completely. To think that any emotion is involved in our current long positions is a grave mistake. We do not have emotions in regards to the stock market at BWT. We only have quantitative signals. Nothing more and nothing less. When we are wrong we cut our losses immediately like in a recent long signal generated in WNC on 3/15 that we had to reverse on 3/19.
The good news about that loss is that the stock is now setting up in an even more constructive consolidation pattern thus making the next long signal a higher reward to risk ratio setup. On that same note, however, a further follow-through on the recent breakdown below the 50 day moving average will have WNC completely wiped off our watchlist for now.
OK everyone. Try not to get caught up in all the Euro news dramafest this upcoming week, let your winners run and cut your losses short, and most importantly have a great rest of your weekend and upcoming week. Aloha.
Current Top Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
CSU long – 104% – 9/4/12
EAC long – 92% – 12/17/12
CAMP long – 90% – 4/26/12
POWR long – 80% – 12/11/12
HIMX long – 76% – 12/19/12
FLT long – 70% – 9/6/12
HEES long – 69% – 9/4/12
CPSS long – 56% – 1/31/13
AXLL long – 46% – 1/4/13
WAGE long – 42% – 1/8/13
ASTM short – 41% – 7/17/12
GNMK long – 38% – 11/16/12
MNTX long – 36% – 1/17/13
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a BUY signal that was reinitiated on 3/5/13 following a quick, yet ugly, pullback. However, while we are under a BUY signal we are very cautious up in these stratospheric levels in relation to the major market indexes respective 200 day moving averages. That being said, as we know, the trend is your friend until the end when it isn’t.
Overall, the low volume new highs is problematic on a technical level and at the same time is getting problematic on a bullishness level. Before 2008 there is no time in the history of the United States stock market you could find the stock market rally on low volume to new highs, sell off on heavy volume, and then make new highs on lower volume. Yet, that has been the same pattern since 2010. Over and over. Eventually, it is going to end and when it does it will be ugly.
While there could easily be more new highs and further upside, the fact that we are getting such an extreme level of bullishness in the Investors Intelligent survey is worrisome. With bulls now at 50% and bears at 18% we have some very extreme reading seen before market pull backs. Like I said while more upside is possible, and would be welcome as per our current holdings below, we are aware of how frothy stocks look up here.
On top of the extreme level of bullishness and bearishness in the II Survey, we have seen Richard Russell go long and have seen Mila Kunis finally enter the stock market as it is clear stocks do nothing but move higher. Right? Well, we will see.
Going into this holiday-short week, we will remain cautious bulls and position any new long trend following signals accordingly. However, holding current longs and looking for exit signals is going to be the priority.
Have a great week everyone. Mahalo for reading and aloha from a Kona-wind blown-out west side of Maui.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
CSU long – 115% – 9/4/12
CAMP long – 90% – 4/26/12
HIMX long – 76% – 12/19/12
EAC long – 72% – 12/17/12
POWR long – 71% – 12/11/12
HEES long – 71% – 9/4/12
FLT long – 56% – 9/6/12
CPSS long – 44% – 1/31/13
AXLL long – 44% – 1/4/13
WAGE long – 41% – 1/8/13
GNMK long – 37% – 11/16/12
ASTM short – 35% – 7/17/12
Labels:
ASTM,
AXLL,
CAMP,
CPSS,
CSU,
EAC,
FLT,
GNMK,
HEES,
HIMX,
Investors Intelligence Survey,
Mila Kunis,
POWR,
Richard Russell,
WAGE
Saturday, March 09, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Model switched back to a BUY mode on 3/5/13 following a switch to a NEUTRAL mode on 2/25/13. The switch to NEUTRAL on 2/25/13 in our analysis of over 130 years of stock market history should have not switched back to BUY mode so quickly. The price breaks on 2/20 and 2/25 have historically led to months of choppy trading or started downtrends outright. The fact that we switched back to BUY mode so soon is historically extremely out of the norm.
However, this entire market choppy and slow uptrend from the 2009 lows coming on such below average weekly and monthly volume is also historically extremely out of the norm. Huge volume selloffs are quickly absorbed and new highs, not on higher volume but, on lower volume are soon followed. As we have stated before, nowhere else in the history of the United States stock markets can you ever find this trend. Low volume rallies have always been quickly destroyed by higher volume selloffs or do not last long and are followed by heavier volume accumulation to the upside. The odds times continue.
On that note, that means the only logical thing to do is to follow price here and be very careful with the size of long commitments. While Big Wave Trading misses the days when we plunged on margin, today’s market environment does not bode well for that type of investing. A more conservative approach is respected here knowing that a 2010 and 2011 shock experience is always just around the corner with a low volume market rally.
Therefore, we will continue to operate on the long side enjoying the paltry gains we see below (paltry in comparison to the gains we produced before the QE and ZIRP world we have been living in since March 2009), until a clear trend change becomes apparent. For now, the trend is up. We will obey our master–Price.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
CSU long – 115% – 9/4/12
CAMP long – 95% – 4/26/12
HIMX long – 84% – 12/19/12
HEES long – 71% – 9/4/12
EAC long – 65% – 12/17/12
POWR long – 64% – 12/11/12
FLT long – 58% – 9/6/12
AXLL long – 36% – 1/4/13
WAGE long – 34% – 1/8/13
PFBI long – 31% – 11/19/12
CHUY long – 29% – 1/10/13
CPSS long – 26% – 1/31/13
V long – 25% – 8/31/12
GNMK long – 25% – 11/16/12
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio Model remains under a BUY signal from 1/2/13. There is added pressure arising on the overall model, thanks to the Wednesday and Thursday distribution days and the overall wedging pattern of the overall uptrend. This, along with the lack of gains above 1.5% on higher volume, following the 1/2/13 signal, keeps us in the cautious bull camp which is where we have basically been following the third week of January.
Despite the problems in the overall uptrend, we remain in an uptrend and until we have a series of 5 to 6 clear distribution days over a 2 to 3 week period we find it foolish to fight the Fed and unlimited QE. Some of our current long positions gave heavier volume partial profit taking signals and a few recent new long positions triggered cut loss levels. But overall it was a fairly orderly pullback. So far, at least.
On top of that, we had multiple buyable gap up signals that worked very well intraday. It was a 4 for 4 session with 3 big IPO winners. Even though volume was lower overall on Friday, we have learned that price is all that matters. If stocks still have more of an explosive volatile bias to the upside on an individual basis then we will have our models focus on that area of the market.
What will change our minds? The same things that always do. Our new longs start failing immediately, our current holdings trigger profit taking signals, and/or the market begins a rapid decline in heavier volume. Right now, we are on watch for further heavy selling. However, calling tops here, as it always has been throughout human history, is a foolish and unwise proposition. I recommend ditching the opinions and using a sound back-tested time proven systematic methodology that completely eliminates emotions.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal
CAMP long – 92% – 4/26/12
CSU long – 79% – 9/4/12
HEES long – 62% – 9/4/12
FLT long – 52% – 9/6/12
EAC long – 44% – 12/17/12
ASTM short – 39% – 7/17/12
POWR long – 37% – 12/11/12
WAGE long – 31% – 1/8/13
AXLL long – 31% – 1/4/13
HIMX long – 26% – 12/19/12
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)