Another Late Day Rally Lifts Stocks near the Highs of the Session

The S&P 500 continued its yo-yo action finishing in the green today as volume fell across the board ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll figures. Once again in the last 15 minutes buyers stepped up and pushed stocks higher into the close. It has become clock work at the end of the day buyers are appearing supporting the market. Jobless claim figures jumped more than expected just as momentum had been to the upside. Small caps were able to jump into the lead after lagging the broader market this week. Major market averages remain above their respective 50 day moving averages and we remain in an uptrend. Commodities fell again today even as the dollar rose on the day. Natural gas still is in an uptrend completely ignoring what is going on with other commodities. SLV and GLD continued to slide lower confusing many inflationist. Remember, GLD and SLV represent paper and are not replacements for actual coinage. There is a reason gold and silver coins are in high demand and is not translating over to the paper representation of the metals. The entire commodity complex is not saying to the market the global economy is healthy. Interesting to see the number of Bulls remain in the mid-30s from the AAII survey respondents. Bears remained in the 20s. II Bears continue to come in under 20% and bulls above 50%. QE certainly has kept many bullish expecting the money printing to keep prices high. This may be true, but we are in unchartered waters and with the Bank of Japan jumping the shark anything is possible. Tomorrow Non-Farm Payroll figure will dominate CNBC for majority of the morning. The Federal Reserve has now put the Unemployment rate in big bright neon lights. Given our PMI figures released earlier this week it wouldn’t surprise me if the jobs number comes in slightly under expectations. This is just a guess and I wouldn’t even bet my worse enemy’s money on what I think may happen. We are in an uptrend and while we are seeing signs of it weakening we aren’t going to guess when this uptrend will end. We’ll stay disciplined. Cut your losses and have a great weekend!

Late Day Rally lifts Stocks off the Lows of the Session

The markets experienced a low volume session ahead of tomorrow’s economic data. ADP Employment and ISM Non-Manufacturing index are set to hit the wires tomorrow morning. For much of the day’s session sellers had control over the market as AAPL touched its 50 day moving average. While the market as not heading for a day of distribution price action was not looking too kind. A close at the lows would have been on the bearish side of things, but the late surge by buyers helped take the bearish tint off the market. This uptrend continues to remain intact and our current consolidation continues. Aside from tomorrow’s economic reports is the first of a few presidential debates. At the moment, according to InTrade Obama will be the next President of the United States. We can debate polls, but money speaks and it is saying Obama wins in November. Tomorrow night’s debate may very well solidify Obama’s lead or swing the vote to Romney and it will be interesting to see how the market trades off the debate. For those who believe a Romney victory will lead to a rally do not count your chickens before they hatch. Anything is possible and opinions are often wrong. Capping the week off will be Friday’s job report. Given the weak PMI figures and uninspiring economic data it is hard to believe the economy has grown enough jobs to make a difference. On the surface we’ll get a peak at what the government calls unemployment. Real unemployment is much too scary of a number to report so we get an adjusted figure from our government. The Federal Reserve has now pegged Quantitative Easing infinity to the jobless rate and now this figure has become even more watched. Is it important, perhaps, but to for our purposes it always boils down to price and leading stocks. The Federal Reserve is here to stay and print, but it all comes back to whether or not we are in an uptrend or downtrend. After a quiet two days to start the week perhaps we’ll get a bit more action tomorrow. Keep those losses small.