Thursday, April 04, 2013

Another Late Day Rally Lifts Stocks near the Highs of the Session

The S&P 500 continued its yo-yo action finishing in the green today as volume fell across the board ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll figures. Once again in the last 15 minutes buyers stepped up and pushed stocks higher into the close. It has become clock work at the end of the day buyers are appearing supporting the market. Jobless claim figures jumped more than expected just as momentum had been to the upside. Small caps were able to jump into the lead after lagging the broader market this week. Major market averages remain above their respective 50 day moving averages and we remain in an uptrend. Commodities fell again today even as the dollar rose on the day. Natural gas still is in an uptrend completely ignoring what is going on with other commodities. SLV and GLD continued to slide lower confusing many inflationist. Remember, GLD and SLV represent paper and are not replacements for actual coinage. There is a reason gold and silver coins are in high demand and is not translating over to the paper representation of the metals. The entire commodity complex is not saying to the market the global economy is healthy. Interesting to see the number of Bulls remain in the mid-30s from the AAII survey respondents. Bears remained in the 20s. II Bears continue to come in under 20% and bulls above 50%. QE certainly has kept many bullish expecting the money printing to keep prices high. This may be true, but we are in unchartered waters and with the Bank of Japan jumping the shark anything is possible. Tomorrow Non-Farm Payroll figure will dominate CNBC for majority of the morning. The Federal Reserve has now put the Unemployment rate in big bright neon lights. Given our PMI figures released earlier this week it wouldn’t surprise me if the jobs number comes in slightly under expectations. This is just a guess and I wouldn’t even bet my worse enemy’s money on what I think may happen. We are in an uptrend and while we are seeing signs of it weakening we aren’t going to guess when this uptrend will end. We’ll stay disciplined. Cut your losses and have a great weekend!

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