Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

The Big Wave Trading portfolio remains under a NEUTRAL signal. However, we did switch to a BUY signal for 2 days before switching back to NEUTRAL. Fortunately for us, we have already closed shop on our model for the year. After the final and barely successful SELL signal it was decided that with the current price/volume pattern in the overall market, the upcoming Fiscal Cliff drama, and the news driven nature of the current market that shutting it down for 2012 was the right thing to do. This past week proves that point. The past week saw a very noisy intraday nature to the market with a ton of stocks showing erratic to abnormal price action. Rather it was stocks like GMCR, FB, FSLR, AMCC, or RIMM going up almost every day non-stop or the reversal in price breakouts lower in stocks like SWHC, ARIA, QCOM, CNC, or ASPS that scripted what was an odd overall market. Even the big boys like PCLN and GOOG are showing erratic trading. This is a clear sign to us that trend following and stock picking the U.S. markets remain a very futile effort for anything other than a very short-term time frame. If your time frame is going to be weeks to months, on a position, we recommend waiting for better price and volume relationship to develop in this market. At this point for us we are very happy being heavily invested in cash and on the sidelines in our top systems. Short-term daytrading methodologies and very long-term methodlogies in world ETFs with wide volatility/ATR stops are the only two systems working for us now. The world ETF market has been the one very bright spot in all of this. The moves in VNM, DXJ, EWH, EWS, and EWA have been very welcome during a time when the U.S. markets are behaving so poorly. We continue to believe that over the longer-term more capital and bigger position sizes are going to be needed in these markets to return outside normal returns in the future. We are sure one day the stock market will trend in one direction or another for a period of time that will allow old trend following momentum methodologies in high quality stocks to work very well again. Until then, however, other markets should be where investors continue to look to into the future. That is unless we can get a change in the zero-interest-rate-policy, the Quantitative Easing environment, and extremely divided electorate some time soon. I wouldn’t place on hard bets on that happening for a while. Aloha and have a wonderful weekend! Current Top Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal NTE long – 118% – 8/17/12 VRNM short – 54% – 4/10/12 CAMP long – 48% – 4/26/12 CSU long – 37% – 9/4/12 ASTM short – 25% – 8/2/12Q

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

“I learned that an opinion isn’t worth that much. It is more important to listen to the market.” -Brian Gelber “Most traders who fail have large egos and can’t admit that they are wrong. Even those who are willing to admit that they are wrong early in their career can’t admit it later on! Also, some traders fail because they are too worried about losing. I’m not afraid to lose. When you start being afraid to lose, you’re finished.” -Brian Gelber The Big Wave Trading Portfolio switched from a weak BUY to a NEUTRAL to a strong SELL signal on Friday. The weak BUY signal was generated by CANSLIM stocks breaking out and the Homebuilder indexes (ITB, XHB). The nature of the BUY signal was problematic and it is no surprise we are now under a SELL signal. What was surprising was the shocking (almost stunning) amount of CANSLIM quality stocks that broke out during the recent signal. This caused our portfolios to definitely be way too long the recent move and thus subjected us to more cut losses than what would normally happen. The mistake was taking any breakout that came within two weeks of earnings. This will now be a hard rule in our methodology. New breakouts in high quality stocks within 10 days of earnings are now completely off the table. Had this one rule been observed the small losses we did take would have been cut by nearly 50%. As for the current market condition, the breakdown we just saw in the market was on above average volume on the Nasdaq. This volume was also higher than the recent upside volume in the index. AAPL, CMG, and PCLN are beginning to see some serious distribution problems. Other CANSLIM quality stocks have reversed their previous breakouts on heavy volume. Other CANSLIM quality stocks failed late-stage basing patterns. Even other CANSLIM quality stocks had total and complete devastation following earnings misses. This all came on top of a horrible jobs report. This definitely weighs on our model. The only problem we have with this SELL signal is that our internal indicators are not confirming the move. They are, however, beginning to have a rollover type look and if the market does continue to selloff these indicators will go into confirmation. Overall, the charts in individual stocks have gotten very ugly very fast. The old market axiom of sell in May and go away appears to be intact. The amount of distribution in this market since February has been very large in comparison to the accumulation. Now that we have the market breaking down below the 50 day moving averages on above average volume it appears everything is in line for a rough May to October period. In all fairness to the stock market, we do know that it can and will do anything it wants whenever it wants. Therefore, if we selloff and then rebound on huge volume and get a massive follow-through day on accumulation, we will go long. This despite Big Wave Trading’s opinion that a serious correction is in our very near term future. I penned an article that was denied publication by Seeking Alpha due to the “technical” analysis nature of the article. I believe it is worth a read for anyone who has recently gone long this market and believes this is the start of a normal pullback. It could be but it probably is not. Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain – Date of Purchase SWHC – 81% – 1/3/12 AVD – 68% – 1/10/12 BVSN short – 57% – 3/19/12 MNST – 32% – 1/13/12 PRXI short – 25% – 3/30/12

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

“When you are starting out, it is very important not to get too far behind because it is very difficult to fight back. Most traders have a tendency to take risks that are too large at the beginning” – Gary Bielfeldt “Professional traders manage their trading to assume that each trade may be a loser.” -Peter Brandt The Big Wave Trading Portfolio is currently under a BUY signal after having to suffer through three straight SELL signals that were followed by cutting losses and returning to NEUTRAL. The current BUY signal is mainly being produced by the mere fact that the market will not sell off following all of the recent distribution days and is back above its 50 day moving average. Volume on the upside continues to be well below what we would consider a strong BUY signal and it remains a BUY signal basically due to these CANSLIM quality stocks. A lot of CANSLIM quality stocks have built or continue to build quality bases. On the day of the BUY signal on Thursday tons of CANSLIM stocks broke out of very constructive base patterns. Despite these very high quality long signals, Big Wave Trading is not investing up to the capacity that it should be now due to the recent false signals in our model which in the past has not produced three false signals in a row so fast. This is 100% a function of the current market and not our model as 1976-1978 did not even produce this kind of low volume misinformation. Clearly, price is the only thing that matters when stocks are trending up. Volume is irrelevant. At the same time, even if the chart is in perfect order, our portfolios will not tolerate losses and pair back anywhere from 10% to 25% of our positions in stocks if they show losses. Overall, it appears these breakouts are stronger than the breakouts in January as the current consolidation period has given many of these stocks base-on-base patterns or ascending base patterns. The bases these high quality stocks broke out of in January while sound came from the very volatile July-December period in the market thus making some of them suspect. This recent consolidation has tightened many of these charts up. While saying all of this, we are completely aware that the volatile market may throw us back into a NEUTRAL signal at any moment. Also, we realize we are deep in our third year of a QE led uptrend and we remain in our stance that we are near the end of this big bull market rather than a start of a brand new bull market. However, we do not trade off of our opinions. We trade off of real price signals based on 130 years of stock market history and 200 years of futures history. We may think we are near a top but if the market wants to move higher and we have signals we are taking them long. Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain (non-margin) – Date of Signal SWHC – 84% – 1/3/12 AVD – 71% – 1/10/12 LQDT – 53% – 2/1/12 BVSN short – 48% – 3/19/12 EPAM – 33% – 3/1/12 CPWM – 30% – 3/13/12 MNST – 30% – 1/13/12 SUNH- 27% – 3/9/12 PRXI short – 22% – 3/30/12

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

“Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. ” The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking the first small loss. In so doing, he keeps his account in order so that at some future time, when he has a constructive idea, he will be in a position to go into another deal, taking on the same amount of stock as he had when he was wrong.” –Jesse Livermore “Trading is a waiting game. You sit, you wait, and you make a lot of money all at once. Profits come in bunches. The trick when going sideways between home runs is not to lose too much in between.” — Michael Covel The Big Wave Trading Portfolio is under a SELL signal and is taking action on a day by day basis. Big Wave Trading is currently going short stocks that have had speculative run ups in the recent months that have reversed on very heavy volume. Big Wave Trading is also using inverse ETFs to take a short position in the retirement accounts. Big Wave Trading still sits on a high level of cash and is ready to put it to work as signals generate from what appears to be a coming market sell off. While we reserve no bias as to the market at any time, our models are extremely bearish with internals and externals that make up this model giving us very clear “warning” signals. This warning signal is a potential large market pullback. This is based off of several time, price, and volume indicators and actual action of leading, speculative, and defensive stocks. The big surprise about this is that the signals are so bearish yet we remain near recent highs in the stock market. We do not see this as strength and instead see this as a last ditch effort by bulls to hold up the tape via a very few select stocks. The leaders are clear: CMG PCLN and AAPL. Their extended to parabolic runs from 2009 to now are very clear on an arithmetic long-term weekly or monthly chart. The recent price and volume action is showing distribution. The action on these leading stocks on top of the accumulation in inverse ETFs, the distribution in the indexes and ETFs, the breakdowns on large volume in CANSLIM quality stocks, and the void of new longs showing up in my scans make it very clear where the next big move is going to be. When will it happen? There is not one individual on the planet Earth that can answer that question. The sad thing is many people still believe there are people that can do this. They can not. No human, robot, or other entity can predict the future. It can’t be done period. Our portfolio recently was forced to go from SELL to NEUTRAL to SELL to NEUTRAL back to SELL over the past two weeks due to our cut losses being hit off the SELL signal. There is always a safety net. For the first time in real time, since using this methodology following 50+ years of backtesting, we had a BUY or SELL signal not change despite our cut loss being hit. Our second SELL signal was hit with a cut loss via our cut loss/safety strategy. However, the model did not switch from SELL. It was a discretionary decision based on my part to cut our losses to protect against a further melt up on low volume. The fact we are back into a SELL signal proves that the model knows more than I know. That is always comforting to know. In past studies, having three signals generated like this in a row has not happened (the market is always doing something knew!). However, when backtesting BUY to NEUTRAL to BUY or SELL to NEUTRAL to SELL signals over a one to two week time frame, the second signal was true over 85% of the time. Our speculative guess (and that is all that it is at this current point) is that having three in a row like we just went through is an even higher odd event. We will know soon enough. Bottom line, the most important attribute of our model is that it keeps us on the correct side of the market. If the market continues to breakdown, we will press our position on the short side. If the market does not break down, it is going to be a few weeks to months before these very broken charts are going to be able to fix themselves and thus even if we re-enter a BUY signal chances of being able to put funds to work in any significant way appear thin (unless we have a HUGE volume 5% up day–that would obviously change the models mind). However, if we do enter a new BUY signal you can be 100% sure our operations on the short side will end. Another note on the current market, the DJIA is now leading the Nasdaq RS wise and Utilities, Consumer Staples, Tobacco, and Aerospace/Defense stocks and groups are showing up in my stock and ETF scans. We have almost total confirmation that the old saying “sell in May and go away” will be of more value than “buy the Facebook (FB) IPO on opening day.” One last reminder, Big Wave Trading never holds on to a losing position. If we go short or long any position and it does not move in our direction immediately, we begin selling. No questions ask. We don’t care about being wrong or right. That is for losers. We just want to win. To win big you are going to lose a lot. Those are the hard cold facts. Get used to it or find another passion. If this isn’t your passion, find someone whose it is. Top Current Shorts – Percent Gain – Date of Signal SWHC – 80% – 1/3/12 AVD – 69% – 1/10/12 LQDT – 46% – 2/1/12 CPWM – 32% – 3/13/12 EPAM – 31% – 3/8/12 ULTA – 29% – 1/13/12 MNST – 26% – 1/13/12 SUNH – 25% – 3/9/12 Top Current Shorts – Percent Gain – Date of Signal PRXI – 35% – 3/30/12 BVSN – 34% – 3/16/12 WZE – 30% – 4/10/12 SINO – 25% – 4/12/12

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

“Don’t spend your time and energy chasing mediocre trades and investment opportunities. Only move when the odds are overwhelmingly in your favor.” -Brian Hunt

“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.” – Jesse Livermore

The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a NEUTRAL condition but is near switching to a SELL signal. Had volume come in above average on Friday or had price dropped 2% on the SP, Russell, or Nasdaq, it would have switched. Our internal indicators that measure price, volume, and time on many different levels are all in confirmation of the short-term downtrends that are starting to appear on the indexes. At the same time, every single ETF is in full confirmation with their short-term downtrends and every single inverse index ETF is in full confirmation with their short-term uptrends. This action along with the constant non-stop poor action in individual stocks outside of the biotech and monster leading stocks (AAPL PCLN CMG SBUX) universe does not bode well for current bulls. Everything points to our model switching to SELL next week. However, there is one caveat that our model can not price in and has no way of knowing when or where it will come from. That is Ben Bernanke. As long as the government interferes with free markets price and volume is going to generate more false signals than we ever would have seen pre-2008. Since they can simply inject liquidity to a market that has no buyers, we have to respect that many high volume breakdowns are simply not going to work like they used to. If you are a big seller and you know the Fed is going to magically lift stocks higher why would you keep selling? You wouldn’t. You let them lift it higher then unload more and wash, rinse, repeat. The good news is, just like in July to August, you get a real break where sellers simply overwhelm whatever in the hell the Fed is doing. Looking at any long-term arithmetic daily, weekly, or monthly chart it is clear to see the big-cap monster leading stocks are going from extended to parabolic territory. Google finally announced a split. It staged a late-stage-base-failure breakdown on heavy volume. Now all we need is for Apple and Priceline to split and we can start to get a sense of what 2000 felt like before it ended. I will make it very very very clear that this is in no way like 1999. Trust me! However, the fact that so many CANSLIM high-quality stocks are acting so strange, volatile, and some with no rhyme or reason towards price and volume, can not overall be healthy for the market. If these leading stocks continue to hold up relatively well to the overall market, it is always possible that following a correction we could blast off higher. As of now, whether this is just a correction or the start of a new downtrend, it is pure speculation. All we need to know now is that stocks look extremely vulnerable here, the indexes carry a lot of distribution days in them, the internal momentum price, volume, and time indicators are all very bearish, recent longs failed, and new shorts are working. Those are the facts. It does not bode well, short-term, for the market. However, these facts do not matter in a world of quantitative easing. Anything can and will happen. In this stock market you are either patient and wait till all the ducks line up before you move or you must be very quick to change. If you are not quick to change in this market environment you will be dead.

Top Current Holdings – Percent Return – Date of Signal

SWHC – 74% – 1/3/12
AVD – 71% – 1/10/12
EPAM – 48% – 3/7/12
LNKD – 44% – 1/19/12
LQDT – 42% – 2/1/12
BVSN short – 34% – 3/19/12
PRXI short – 34% – 3/30/12
MNST – 28% – 1/17/12
ULTA – 28% – 1/13/12
DANG – 25% – 3/30/12

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

The Big Wave Trading market model went through a serious of changes this week turning from a full BUY signal to a cautious BUY signal to a NEUTRAL signal by Thursday. This NEUTRAL signal means that there is no statistical edge one way or the other as measured by all of our internal indicators. While under a NEUTRAL signal, BWT will only go long the highest quality leading stocks with the strongest chart patterns, will operate from the short side on the best topping patterns, and will eliminate all losers immediately. This means that if we go long or short a stock and it does not move in our favor on day one we are out some of it to all of it. Even if that loss is only $1. No questions asked. It is still not a stock pickers market. That is, of course, you are long PCLN CMG or AAPL. If that is the case then it is a stock pickers market. If the action in these leading stocks doesn’t confirm the mantra “focus on the leaders” I do not know what does. One particularly scary aspect of this recent rally is the drawdown in the BWT accounts from mid-February to Friday. BWT was working on some solid gains when all of a sudden March hit. March has given quite a few long signals in high quality leading stocks that have led to consistently cutting losses. This isn’t happening every once in a while. It is happening on virtually every trade since mid-February. This pattern is following the same pattern of January 2011-May 2011 where the methodology we use diverged very negatively from the overall market. For the bulls sake, we can only hope this is not going to end up in a repeat of that year. The truth of the matter is that March was brutal for Big Wave Trading. In fact, it was a shocker. Watching large gains slip away (just like the gains from September 2010 to January 2011 being destroyed from Jan 11 to May 11) is always a humbling experience. Yet it is also a chance to learn and grow. And that is what we have done. It is clear the market model timing methodology is far superior to stock picking currently. Due to this, more capital will be put to work on the model signals than before. Also, playing speculative stocks with unsustainable run-ups and criminal pump-and-dumps on the short side will become a bigger player in our portfolios. Stock picking using the chart patterns that helped create vast wealth from 1996-2000, 2003-2007, somewhat in 2009, and in late-2010 for me will come back in fashion. However, right now, clearly, it is not in style. during any other rally in the past the top percent gainers below would be nearly doubled. Outside of three stocks, the returns have been paltry. As long as this methodology remains out of style, our portfolios will adjust accordingly. I hope everyone is enjoying their long weekend. Aloha.

Top Current Holdings – Percent Return (non-margin) – Date of Signal

SWHC – 84% – 1/3/12
KORS – 69% – 1/17/12
AVD – 65% – 1/10/12
RF – 42% – 1/5/12
BVSN short – 40% – 3/16/12
EPAM – 39% – 3/1/12
LQDT – 36% – 2/1/12
LNKD – 34% – 1/19/12
PRXI short – 31% – 3/30/12

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

The biggest cause of trouble in the world today is that the stupid people are so sure about things and the intelligent folks are so full of doubts. — Bertrand Russell

It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change. — Charles Darwin

The Big Wave Trading portfolio remains under a BUY signal.

There are concerns with the current condition of the rally but nothing internally is moving our model away from the BUY signal. The most problematic issue is that new longs are simply not performing well. New longs continue to give us small cut losses or small gains. The only two areas not doing this are our IPO and Medical/Biomed/Drug stocks. They remain a high reward/risk win/loss ratio play. This has been one of the strangest uptrends we have seen at Big Wave Trading since my career started in 1996.

For the first time ever, during an uptrend longer than three months, the Big Wave Trading portfolio is lagging the overall stock market. This is more than likely due to the slow steady nature of this uptrend, the lack of volatility, and the lack of explosive moves on explosive volume. Big Wave Trading normally will purchase 5-20% of the strongest CANSLIM quality stocks with the best chart patterns in the stock market, when an uptrend is strong. When we make these purchases and they show low reward/risk win/loss ratios we reduce position size and spread out into more speculative names with higher quality chart patterns to reduce risk. These stocks are not performing like they have in the past. Past rallies from 1996-2000, 2003-2007, 2009, and late 2010 were extremely profitable using this methodology (see Past Big Winners on this website). During this current uptrend, that is not the case.

Our market model methodology using the TQQQ long and short is crushing our current returns with a YTD gain of 33% (without the March shakeout gains would be 60%). This methodology continues to be superior to our stock picking ability ever since the 2011 top. Eventually, our stock picking methodology will come back into favor. For now, however, it is clear that using the 3x ETFs is where the majority of our capital should be deployed.

If the market refuses to selloff this year, we expect that a potential large rally may be around the corner. If that rally comes, just like in most longer-term uptrends, the large gains in individual stocks should follow. Following the 1998, 2002, and 2009 lows, this was the case. We do not expect an explosive uptrend to begin here, though we realize it could, due to the Nasdaq price being so far extended from the 200 day moving average. It would be very beneficial to the market for the price to continue to work its way lower and consolidate so that the 50 and 200 day moving average can tighten up to the price. As long as we remain extended, a risk of a pullback remains very high.

We continue to hedge our long side positions with shorts in speculative stocks with no earnings/sales growth or paid promotional manipulation pump-and-dump stocks that have made extended/parabolic moves in short periods of time. When these stocks reverse hard off their extended runs on huge volume, we take short positions. So while Big Wave Trading remains under a BUY signal we clearly recognize the fact the VIX is low, sentiment is too bullish on the Investors Intelligence survey, and the price and 200 DMA of the Nasdaq are too wide for a significant move up here.

As always, we are ready for anything and everything that the stock market can and will produce. It is the only way to play the game. The most important rule remains to always cut losses immediately when we are wrong. Big Wave Trading never holds a losing position. If Big Wave Trading purchases a stock or ETF and it does not move in our direction immediately we begin to scale out or get out immediately. No questions asked. It either works or it is removed.

Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain (non-margin) – Date of Signal

SWHC – 72% – 1/3/12
KORS – 66% – 1/17/12
AVD – 50% – 1/10/12
RF – 45% – 1/5/12
LNKD – 37% – 1/19/12
BVSN (short) – 36% – 3/16/12
EPAM – 36% – 3/1/12
LHCG – 32% – 1/19/12
CIS – 29% – 3/12/12
CCU – 28% – 12/21/11
SUNH – 26% – 3/9/12
CERS – 25% – 2/10/12

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

The Big Wave Trading Portfolio’s Market Model remains under a BUY signal. However, during the week, evidence started to mount that turned the model from leaning BUY bullish to BUY neutral. This means that less capital is being deployed in new long positions and the requirements for actually becoming a new long position in the portfolios is raised. There are various internal indicators we use to confirm price action on any individual stock. We now must see all of these line up confirming the move to become part of the portfolio. The BUY neutral stance will switch back to a full BUY signal if the market can break out here. If the breakout comes on higher volume, capital deployed in the new long positions will be increased significantly. If the breakout is on lower volume, capital will be increased only slightly. In saying this, the Big Wave Trading margin and retirement portfolios are nearly fully invested already. However, there is still 10-20% cash on hand due to new high quality longs failing. Recent longs in high quality CANSLIM names like RRTS VHS HEES FTK TLLP left us with cut losses and thus have us holding some cash on hand. Recent CANSLIM longs (four of them) the past two days are holding up very well but are not exploding higher immediately. This action in high quality longs is the biggest reason, besides the low volume on the indexes, we still lean heavily neutral until we see a breakout on the indexes. Big Wave Trading is also actively working on the short side of one of the biggest pump and dumps on the Nasdaq in years. We continue to short one individual stock (we currently have gains ranging from 4% to 27% under our operation) following any consolidation after a breakdown. The insane criminal practices going on with this stock by promoters and huge potential reward has left us with no other choice than to profit off the greed and evil of some horrible human beings. One final note: If the stock market does not breakout this week or next week and we begin to roll over, you can be 100% sure the Big Wave Trading Model will switch from BUY to NEUTRAL and then position itself accordingly as price and volume action on stocks, ETFs, and the indexes roll in day by day. Aloha and have a wonderful weekend.

Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain (non-margin) – Date of Signal

SWHC – 73% – 1/3/12
KORS – 67% – 1/17/12
AVD – 43% – 1/10/12
RF – 42% – 1/5/12
LNKD – 34% – 1/19/12
LHCG – 30% – 1/19/12
CERS – 28% – 2/9/12
ULTA – 26% – 1/17/12
CRMT – 26% – 11/30/11
CPWM – 25% – 3/13/12

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

“The whole secret to winning and losing in the stock market is to lose the least amount possible when you’re not right.” — William J. O’Neil

“It is when the unimaginable occurs that the systematic trader remains calm, presciently knowing when to buy, sell, or adjust their exposure.” — Mark Abraham, Quantitative Capital Management, L.P.

Following last weeks switch from BUY to NEUTRAL to partial SELL to NEUTRAL, the Big Wave Trading Portfolio switched back to a full BUY signal on Tuesday. New longs leading up to Tuesday and new longs following Tuesday continue to act very well indicating that the rally has a high chance of continuing on the short term. The most unfortunate part of this entire uptrend has been, once again (as has been the case following 2008), the lack of new long positions immediately exploding and producing 20% gains within 2 weeks or 50%+ gains in 2 months. The lack of huge upside moves in individual stocks continues and does not appear to be in any hurry to change in the new QE environment we find ourselves in. Chart patterns that produced explosive gains from 1982-2007 simply do not produce the same huge moves (study my past big winners from 1998-2008 to see the evidence). This remains the one unfortunate problem with the new uptrend. The good news, however, this year, is that individual stocks move less with the overall market and finally have a mind of their own. It appears, during this uptrend, forcing yourself to be long leveraged index ETFs is not the only way to make money for the first time since the 2009 uptrend started. Overall, there was not much action out there following the BUY signal and that is an overall positive. It would have been much better to follow-through on the gains immediately but the indexes across the board are a bit extended away from their 200 day moving averages and history tells us huge moves are not going to happen when the indexes are around 10% higher than their 200 DMA. Some sideways consolidation would be a very bullish situation here. Especially with the upcoming Facebook (FB) IPO. A black swan event could happen at any moment so we continue to be completely ready for the uptrend to end at any day. Picking a date, however, would be foolish. We will let the price action of the indexes tell us when the uptrend is over, instead of our flawed egos. Have a great weekend everyone. Aloha.

Top Current Holdings – Percent Return (non-margin) – Date of Signal

KORS – 64% – 1/17/12
SWHC – 50% – 1/3/12
RF – 41% – 1/5/12
LHCG – 40% – 1/19/12
AVD – 38% – 1/10/12
CERS – 28% – 2/10/12
CRMT – 26% – 11/30/11
SUNH – 25% – 3/9/12