Stocks fell across the board, on Thursday, with the Nasdaq down 1.3%, SP 500 down .9%, SP 600 down 1%, and IBD 100 down 1.4%. Volume came in lower across the board, showing that the selling was not too intense. However, IBD says the Nasdaq's volume was higher so that would make it a distribution day. But I am not sure how they calculate their final volume figures, so I can not call this day a distribution day.
The Labor Productivity report was the "blame of the day," falling for the first time in five years. That was enough to scare out some sellers and kept the bidders from holding stocks up. That has now allowed some indexes to start short-term downtrends that could turn into a sub-intermediate downtrend.
Why do I think that? Because the recent action of the indexes are starting to look like churning to me. Almost everyday this year, the NYSE and Nasdaq has traded volume above their 50 dma yet the markets are going nowhere. That along with the two biggest % moves of the indexes this year have been to the downside. And then the lack of high quality stocks breaking out, stocks rolling over or breaking down, and my recent longs consisting of lower quality issues raises red flags. This commentary, of course, does not apply to the Mid and Small Cap indexes. Those indexes are so strong that if in fact the markets do rollover they will probably join the downside afterwards.
Therefore, I am keeping a close eye on the indexes, raising cash by having to sell weaker stocks that are triggering cut loss or profit taking signals, and keeping my new buys very small. But I am still bullish, because I have to be until the SP 500 and Nasdaq break to new 2006 lows.
The short-term trend may be down but how many times has the short-term trend turned down this year only to right itself back to the upside? I know off hand at least 9 times in the past 6 months.
We shall see what tomorrow brings. I am just happy there is one more trading day before the Super Bowl. It is going to be a fun Sunday! If I do not update my blog until then....GO STEELERS!
Sorry Seattle readers but I have to root for Jerome Bettis. I was born in St. Louis and he was a Ram. I know that is cutting it close but whatever.
New Swing Longs: CNTF NUVA
New Swing Shorts:
Longs Outperforming Market: ERS-132% MCX-62% CBG-85% SIRF-136% COGO SCHK DMC LCC-46% GOL-59% IHS VSEC-29% LDSH-46% CIB-32% EMAG KEYS XRTX TESOF ROK MCF NNDS GRS-76% DOX VIMC FWLT-72% IKAN-26% AATI UEPS CUP BKHM-39% TGC-62% EMKR-123% EVST-26% AUY-96% TTEK EFJI MSPD RGEN SMDI-48% MRB-74% TVIA PPCO FSII BAM RSTI BWNG-46% TXCO-37% NSTK TYL DROOY BRLC CMPX CDE BGO-30% ITRA
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On The Radar Screen: MLP CAAS JADE CHINA PPS MNKD
3 comments:
Hi Josh:
They come, they go, they re-appear.
I notice a considerable number of stocks are mentioned as "NEW Swing Longs" more than once over a period of months.(RGEN and NUVA to mention 2).
I presume that after a period of time you traded out of them after their first mention and now months later you like them again and they re-appear as a "New Swing Long" a second time for another trade.
However, just so that I'm on the same page, how do you account for these stocks in "Stocks Outperforming the Market"? I'm talking about the % gains listed. Are you calculating the gain from the first mention or from the most recent mention?
I presume the latter but the question needs to be asked.
"A Friend" of your Blog.
(I'm the guy that likes to answer his own questions,LOL)
Yes.
You have to be disciplined. And after the first buy they went up but then they sold off. So you sell out.
I follow the IBD rules on selling. If you dont know what that is pick up the book "How To Make Money in Stocks" by Willima J O Neil.
Stocks Outperforming Market obviously is from the time I buy not the last mention. It is from the buy date. Why would I calculate the gain from the most recent post, Andrew? It doesnt make sense.
Yes, Andrew, you did answer your own questions.
.....................................
Bill O Neil not Wilma, LOL.
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