Stocks fell early then staged a nice intraday rally after oil fell 3%. That helped the index turn around and close near their highs of the day. The SP 600 was up .75%, the Nasdaq was up .6%, the SP 500 up .4%, and the DOW up .3%. On my charts Nasdaq volume was higher and the NYSE was lower. However, IBD, IB, and Realmoney all have volume lower on the Nasdaq. So, once again, my Nasdaq chart has different volume figures than all other sources. Knowing how excellent the TCNet software is, I think this is silly now.
After scanning my charts tonight, I did not notice any really high quality stocks breaking out. There are some setting up but something doesn't look right. The stocks that did show up on my scan as new buys mostly hail from the Biotech and Semiconductor sector. And most of the nice charts are in those sectors and the Transportation sector. However, the majority of the leaders in these industries have already broken out to big gains. The ones remaining are of lower quality. But the charts are nice and the active trader in me will take what the market gives me.
That along with big caps and the DOW taking the leadership from the small cap and tech stocks show that the current rally is not favoring the cream of the crop. But as long as Bernanke is raising rates and there are stocks breaking out from good patterns I will keep my long bias.
With oil falling, the markets going up, bullish readings falling, and people's fear growing over what Bernanke will do is enough to keep the market afloat. As long as there are people who are pessimistic about the GDP growth, inflation, job reports, the deficit, and the war in Iraq, the markets have that wall of worry to keep climbing higher.
Barry Ritholtz, the chat rooms, CNN, and the rest of the bears can keep crying and can keep telling me why this market should fall or why it should crash. I will just listen to the charts and react. Those charts make me a TON of money in bull markets and help me keep a high level of cash when the markets are shaky, bearish, or a bit confusing.
Those charts are facts, the media commentary about the economy is not. If they reported both sides or spun it the correct way, trust me, everyone would know this is and was a great economy the past three years.
Do me a favor. Research how the writers of NYTimes, Wash Post, CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, and any other major news network votes. Journalist say they report fair and only the facts all the time. Yet when people like Helen Thomas is asked by people who she votes for, she will NOT answer the question.
The truth is unless you do your own research you will never know that this economy is just as strong, if not stronger, than the economy was under Bill Clinton. Yet when unemployment was higher under Clinton, it was considered wonderful and full employment. Yet when unemployment is 4.7% under Bush it is tragic. And don't give me the argument of the jobs were better back then. That is like me saying, "Darn these stupid automobiles! I make horse carriages! What am I going to do now? I am going to lose my job and have to learn a new craft." The times have changed folks. This is a service economy. Wake up and get with it! Last time I checked also, Toyota, Honda, and all the other foreign car manufacturers have plants here in the USA. GM and Ford screwed up on their own, with no help from an outdated Union.
Unions! Another fine example of a great program hijacked by mentally incompetent socialist.
New Swing Longs: SLAB AMKR AMCS MNTA MEDX VTSS AMPL
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market: MORN SURG GES-89% TRAD-56% CRDN-61% KLIC-38% KEYS-36% BOOM-319% ERS-88% XRTX-26% GOL-69% MFLX-162% LDSH-63% LCC-64% MDCC-35% ASVI CLZR-30% TMI NVDA-50% CHE CBG-82% BEAV-37% FFIV OXPS-75% STX-25% SAY-26% KNXA-28% RUSHA BBD-135% MSCC-65% VSEC-39% RVSN-32% SCHK STMP-28% WIRE-111% NNDS CIB-30% PETS-130% JBL KEX TRO LTM AXE-26% IKAN-38% PEC DRH VIMC FWLT-62% SXC HGRD ADLR-69% RNAI ACTG NVAX NKTR NUVA BGC-54% SBAC-32% ELN-32% DMC RBAK-182% IED-49% MSPD-29% AKAM-61% RADN TNOX RADS PPCO-29% HSP-31% ECLP MU-26% GLNG TTEK BE EDS SNPS ZVXI UHAL-93% SMDI-56%
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: ITRI IRM ARII EVVV FALC ISO ORCC GV STTS HPOL DCGN
3 comments:
if you don't mind me asking, how much on average do you make a year?
Bloomberg has Nazzy vol. higher than the NYSE vol.
I dont want to give an exact return. But by reading the blog and following my stocks you should be able to get a sense where I am at.
If you want to send me a check to see my returns. I think I would do that. But until I get paid to do this. That is too personal right now. My sincere apologies.
In a raging bull market like 1996, 1999, and 2003, you better be returning 75% plus. In bear markets or sideways markets, I measure my performance by looking at the top mutual funds in my investing style category. That would be small, mid, large cap growth and small cap value investing. The value is there only because those turn into growth stocks. By top mutual funds I mean the top 5% in all those categories. So if they range from 15%-20% you better be returning at least 20% or else why trade.
So remember look at the top 5% of mutual funds in your investing style category and you should be near the top or beating them. If you are not, unless you really just like trading, I would give my money over to a great growth fund manager.
So to answer your question, in a round about way, I make what the top 2% of mutual funds in the small/mid cap growth fund category return every year or better. I have not fallen behind this mark since 1998.
How can that be? I have a cut loss strategy. In bear markets I dont have to hold what they hold so I normally crush their performance.
Great luck out there.
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Dammit! That makes things even more confusing. LOL.
Well no matter what volume was pretty close to flat. I will leave it at that.
Thank you so much for the valuable info.
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