Friday, April 07, 2006

Stock Indexes Fall Hard On Lower Volume; Fear Is What We Need To Keep The Bears From Becoming Bulls.

A jump in bond yields and a strong jobs report was the culprit of the day, according to the talking heads at CNBC. As we know already, that is just an excuse to try to explain the selloff. The selloff wasn't that bad but was the worse drop we have seen in five weeks. The SP 600 fell the hardest at 1.2%, followed by the SP 400/500 down 1%, and the Nasdaq lost .9%.

Volume was lower than the day before, on all indexes. Breadth was negative by a 4-1 margin on the NYSE and 2-1 negative on the Nasdaq. That poor breadth combined with the low volume has the feel of a market with fewer buyers than more sellers. What I mean by that is that instead of funds coming in and selling en-masse they simple stepped aside and let the few sellers that showed up to simply take stocks down without putting a bid underneath to support it.

I, personally, don't see much worrisome about today's action. We need day's like this to keep the bears from becoming bullish. By keeping them bearish and shorting that only gives the bulls more fire for the upside as the bears will be forced to cover there shorts for losses as prices continue to rise. By looking at the AAII number you can see the past week brought on a lot of bears to the bullish camp. A pullback can help reverse that number or at least prevent it from rising.

I apologize, once again, for the delay in the post. I am still dealing with some personal issues.

See you on Monday!

New Swing Longs: NONE

New Swing Shorts: NONE

Longs Outperforming Market: STRL COGO-28 ERS-248 NNDS-33 BWLD PNRG-61 TMI-30 RATE-151 OXPS RSTI-40 STX-29 SCVL RMBS-25 HOM NMR-45 SCHK-37 UVN QCC AAU SSW PEIX-56 OMNI-36 SATC-41 TMTA NENG-35 TVIA MSPD-47 MT IIP-65 CNXT-69 SVNT AGT-38 BEAS-27 RNWK ICTG-78 WF MDM-26

Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE

Stocks On Radar Screen: SPSN DEIX

Run Away As Fast As You Can: LMLP -- Leaving with a 4% gain.

Final Sell Of A Longer Term Winner: ORA -- 43% gain, SAY -- 24% gain

Signal To Lock In Some Profits: MRB -- 86% gain. This is just a point to sell some shares. The intraday action and daily chart shows that there was plenty of support to the day's selling.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the commentary. I assume the numbers following the longs are percent increases?

bluesunze said...

JOsh, I notice you are/were long NVAX, what is your thinking there? Did you hold thru the analyst downgrade by RBC, after Rodham and Renshaw reiterrated there $10 target after the sharp fall the previous day. There is some thinking that the analyst from RBC may of downgraded due to the loss of Business to R & R, since he has been quoted as liking the NVAX company when the stock price was near 8. Thanks for any thoughts.

this is a repost that got missed a few days agao........LOL

Market Speculator said...

Blue...I am going to have to say that Josh won't listen to analysts...


Just a hunch!


Josh, take care of your biz kid...we're behind ya!

Joshua_NControl said...

Yes, the numbers following the longs are % increases. If you scroll down through the blog you will see I normally post that. I just forgot this time.
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I only sold 10% of my NVAX before the drop on the 4th. After that drop I sold another 33%. And if any other negative signs show up I will sell the rest.

Market is correct when he says I don't listen to analyst. Analyst price targets have NEVER correlated to price performance in history's greatest stock market winners.

I should have sold more NVAX when it was up 80% but hindsight is 20/20. For now I will be happy with any new gains which still look like there are more to come.

Saying that, however, I would not fall in love with NVAX. The fundamental growth is horrible. History's biggest winners NEVER show this kind of earnings and sales growth.

This is a speculative stock and I should have taken more at 80% but I thought it was going to hit 100% and I did not see the big hit coming.
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Thank you market. This isn't easy at all.

I really appreciate all the kind words.

Market Speculator said...

No worries Josh...


I would like to know performance numbers after buy/sell recommendations for analysts. I think their compensation should be directly correlated to their performance on stock picks. I am not aware of any company that ranks ananlysts...

bluesunze said...

Thanks for the comments on NVAX guys. I really screwed up on this turkey this last time. Made lots of money the first two times I traded it and then decided to buy back and not be so quick to sell. well guess what??lol I haven't sold, I've got some that is still profitable but the rest that I bot on the way up is not. Well anyway if it can hold the 50 dma I will be very happy for now. I found this site on market guru's if that is of any interest to you.

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/

Anonymous said...

OT: TVIA

Still long, Joshua? Quarter just closed should be sound; quarter just opened is key. Management will do everything in their power to hit the options vesting top line number of 5MM, vs trailing 2.7MM. Recent news from Europe displays penetration into competition's customer base in dramatic fashion. TVIA is a classic Lynch microcap; underfollowed, tightly held, disciplined, driven management, 26 insider buys in 2004.

lynchadvocate said...

OT: TVIA
Josh you stay long?

Quarter just closed should be sound; current quarter is key. Management very incentivized to hit 5MM for options vest. Recent news re: MiTac Europe displays penetration into competition's customer base in dramatic fashion. New CTO is bringing some tools.

TVIA is a classic Lynch small cap play, underfollowed, disciplined and driven management, sound balance sheet, 26 insider buys in 2004, tightly held.

Great engineering; sold an NRE to Sharp last quarter, possibly a pixel controller chip that masks defects in the panel in new production.

Anonymous said...

curious what you think about the charts of ARTG and ABB

Anonymous said...

I'm wondering why your list of longs outperforming the market is much shorter here than the one posted over on your blog site at Investor's Paradise. Also, if there is no number after the symbol, does that mean that position is showing a loss?

Good luck with your difficuly, whatever it may be.

Anonymous said...

I personally am long ARTG. The chart looks beautiful to me. Just keeps stairstepping up, up each time on big volume, consolidates for awhile on lower, then rises again. Perfect straight up 50dma, no faltering. They don't often get better than this.

Joshua_NControl said...

TVIA: I am still long

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ARTG and ABB: These charts are perfect. LOL. I don't see what I can add besides keep holding them if you got them....the reader that said it doesn't get much better than this is SO CORRECT. It does not get better than this. ARTG is a picture perfect example of what you want to see in your long. The breakout buy date, that I passed on, was at the end of November. Since then it is up 117% without a single sign of distribution.

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I post my blog one day late on the IP site. You are seeing a list from Thursday's blog.

No number after the ticker symbol means the stock is not up at least 25%. Only stocks up over 25% are listed with a number. The list also says 'longs outperforming market.' That means that the stocks on this list are stocks that are up on the day and have volume over the 50 dva.

Thank you very much for your kind words. Everything will work out in time.

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