Saturday, April 22, 2006

Stocks End Mixed, With A Negative Tone. Nice Late-Day Support Help The Indexes From Having A Nasty Day.

Higher oil prices, along with pressure at the gas pumps, was the reason for the Nasdaq falling, according to the talking heads at CNBC. However, the damage was not that bad as the Nasdaq found some late day support. If the selling would have lasted into and through the final hour then I would be concerned. But in the current bull market we have had the past three years there have been a lot of days like this. I believe this is just another one of those semi-scary days that gets the bears confident that they will be right this time.

The Nasdaq fell .8%, the SP 600 fell .3%, and the Dow and SP 500 was up .04% and down .01% respectively. Volume was higher on the Nasdaq and lower on the NYSE. Breadth was even on the NYSE and slightly negative on the Nasdaq. New highs, once again, trumped new lows. Overall a pretty lame day. And the higher volume on the Nasdaq could have been the work of options experation which always inflates the final volume total.

Many leading stocks acted well today and are still in great uptrends. A few stocks here and there give some nasty sell signals. But after such HUGE runs in most of them what do you expect? The IBD 100 was also up .2% on Friday, showing that leading stocks are still dominating the indexes; like always.

There are still plenty of people out there that are calling a top after every market day when we finish red. They were out in force, ONCE AGAIN, in the chatrooms I monitor, on Friday. I think that is simply foolish and goes against all common sense of how to make money. All trends in all time frames are up for all indexes. So calling a top is stupid. Did you know that back in March 2000 I was still bullish after the intitial selloff. When the next selloff occured, I became bearish. Why? Because after the first selloff there were very few charts left that looked good. They all had major distribution qulaities in them and had TERRIBLE chart patterns. So when the second selloff came it was then obvious the rally was over.

That did not then and will not in the future be a guide to a crash. It is simply history repeating itself. When the real top happens, we will have a TON of charts making climax runs, low volume new highs, followed by nasty selloffs. Then and ONLY then will it be smart to say "I am a bear." Until then the trend is up and that is where all the money is being made. You can cry all you want about this great economy and try to talk it down but facts are facts. 100 stocks up 100% or more in four months should tell you how accurate the bears are. Their arguments will be right one day but today is still not there day.

I hope everyone had a great weekend and get ready for an exciting week. Earnings season is always a treat...or a trick.


New Swing Shorts: NONE

Longs Outperforming Market(number is % gain since purchase): ERS-368 NXG-153 BTUI-177 TGB-125 SLW-133 AKAM-112 BOOM-460 BBD-135 VGZ-101 GIGM-152 EMKR-172 VTS-35 FTK TTES ARS-62 FWLT-68 FRGB TMI-26 COGO-53 ZEUS-74 NCTY TOMO-43 KEX-40 BEAS-34 BAS BGC-70 IHS-46 ASPV CLZR-68 CORS CAMP STMP-61 BAM-27 KDN-26 MTU ROK-30 CIB-42 SCVL JOBS RMBS PNRG-69 RUSHA RAIL-73 GEMS-36 CVO-95 NGPS MEK-46 SWIR-41 ECOL-34 SA IIP-52 BGO-64 GBN-48 STAA CDE-44 EVST-60 STKL-34 SWW-29 PEIX-67 RBY-28 NTO-69 SMSI-40 ANO CCUR-25 ISV-48 HNZ SPSX-28 STD VCP BFT BGC-70 ING-26 SATC-36 AXE-32 AGSN-98 DB TGE-25 CHRK VLG

Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE

Stocks On Radar Screen: TZOO!! OSK ZP

Classic Profit Taking And Sell Signals: LCRD SCHK FDRY FFIV


BullishBabe said...

Hey Josh,i just wanted to give you some props on your blog. I really like your work and the disciplined method you seem to take to your trading. From tracking my own trading over the past few months, I've definitely seen better success in the high-growth companies...buying on breakouts (or after pullbacks).

Anyway, thought I'd put in a shameless plug for my own site, if you wanna check it out. If you'd like to give me any feedback (to this comment), i'd love to hear it! xoxo Jen, aka BullishBabe

Anonymous said...


thanks for taking the time to write...I actually went through all your old post and found the posting on how you find your stocks...

actually have been reading the IBD for some time, just not using the stocks list and the software program you use to determine taking positions

previously been day trading which I learned from Bill Barnett who lives in HAWII. who is strictly a day trader.....which I find looking at charts 7 hours a day.....not the way to spend my lifetime..

thus i am following in your footsteps...and will try to become better than anybody out there,

thanks for your posts.

take a look at WEDX...great stock for 2007 canadian company with new flat screen tv technology....


Anonymous said...

Hey, Josh, I know you bought some NCTY last week - does NTES look at all similar right now - it seems to be near its trend line and near the 50 day also. I believe you are already long but wanted your thoughts. Thanks.