Saturday, July 08, 2006

The Short, Yet Exhausting, Trading Week Finishes With An Ugly Selloff On Higher Volume.

A weak job report number and a nasty earnings warning from 3M were just two of the reasons given that helped spark a broad market selloff.

Tech stocks and small cap stocks helped lead the selloff. The SP 600 led to the downside with a 1.4% haircut, the Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average followed with a 1.2% loss, and the SP 500 lost .7%.

Volume was higher across the board and gave the indexes another distribution day since we got the follow-through day signal. It is only two days of distribution technically. Since one of the distribution days came right after a half-day right before the Fourth of July, it is hard to say it was one with full conviction.

Breadth was negative on the NYSE by a 5-to-3 margin and 11-to-4 on the Nasdaq.

The major market indexes have not rolled over yet but there is no doubt that we need to see some more leadership and follow-through in the next couple of weeks or else I will begin to really lose my faith in this rally. Like I said before, food, beverage, medical, and other defensive stocks are not my kind of leaders in a new bull market. These sectors will have to rotate into other sectors or I am afraid this rally will not last long.

Today was a very odd day indeed, after getting that ADP report yesterday and then getting the actual numbers today. That little bit of confusion and conflicting data really sums up the mood of traders in this market. I had a couple of traders I know get pretty upset and angry today. Not sure what that means, because they are both what I would call professional/semi-pro traders.

I am keeping it short because I have posted so much about my current mood of this market, what charts I like, and what is wrong with charts other traders are showing me that I find it self-defeating to repeat it here. Please go to Investors Paradise and take a look at all my open forums for questions and answers.

Have a great weekend and I will see you Monday on Investors Paradise.

Unless you can trade like Y.Y., stay on the sidelines.

New Swing Longs: SCIX MTMD PLC--charts can be seen at Investors Paradise.

New Swing Shorts: PBE MAS TXRH CSH NAFC

Longs Outperforming: HMSY WBMD EGOV CPY GPIC-33 CTCI-73 NWS TRMA SEIC IDEV DSGX-55

Shorts Outperforming: USG CRXL SWC GYI JOYG BPFH ELY WSM AMAT RTP RES AVID MEOH IKN MAFB APOL FRZ GTRC ITWO

Stocks On Radar Screen: TTG

4 comments:

Y.Y. said...

josh the reason i pulled the trigger and shorted the initial pop in spx futures at 8 30 am is because the closely watched avg hourly earnings figure came in higher then forcast

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

I got ya brother.

keep up the great work! I am sure your clients are happy. :-)

Anonymous said...

I love you Y.Y.

Anonymous said...

Agreed that it's no good to lose your cool as a trader, the best thing i can do is avoid that at all costs?

Check out the chart on SOES.. The 2 yr is great

hang loose guys

Elliot

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1798149