Friday, December 15, 2006

Quadruple Witching Turns Out To Be Quadruple Boring.

Stocks closed the week up for the third straight session, with the help of a kind inflation data. The CPI came in unchanged from a month ago and that helped lift stocks higher. But after stocks hit their highs of the day around 11am EST, they basically drifted lower for the rest of the session closing with small gains.

At the close, the DJIA led the way to the upside with a .2% gain, the SP 500 and Nasdaq closed .1% higher, and the SP 600, once again, diverged closing lower by .2%. The IBD 100 did not lead but it did not lag either. Instead it kept pace with the SP 500 and the Nasdaq, closing .1% higher.

Volume was much higher on both exchanges as quadruple witching contributed to the HUGE spike in volume. Trading for the last day were stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures. These days, like always, are hard to analyze on an accumulation/distribution basis. However, on days where the market does nothing like today, it doesn't matter.

Breadth was negative on both exchanges, diverging from price, with decliners over advancers by a 6-to-5 margin on the NYSE and by a 8-to-7 margin on the Nasdaq.

The biggest movers of the day came in the form of Gold stocks which got hit pretty hard. This is normal, for old leaders. They come back from the dead after the "real" run and then everyone thinks that this run will be as good as the last one. Sadly, there normal is never another run. The AMEX Gold Bugs dropping 1.5% and the Philly Gold & Silv Index losing 1.4% show the true intnetion of the big boys. They are selling these stocks and some of the "true" leaders like GG on a weekly show the same patterns EVERY old leader shows. Goodnight gold.

For the week the SP 500 led the way with a 1.2% gain, the DJIA followed with a 1.1% gain, the Nasdaq followed with a .8% gain, and the SP 600 lagged with a .2% loss. Leading stocks, in the form of the IBD 100, rallied .5%. This is the first time in a while I don't remember this index leading. However, the fact that the SP 600 is lagging so bad and the IBD 100 is still keeping up keeps me positive.

Overall it was a pretty darn good week, considering all the positioning I had to do in my portfolio. I took a lot of gains/small losses this week on over 150 different stocks. But despite all this moving around in my portfolio, my account did pretty darn well. I know one thing, had I not taken profits and cut some laggards I would not have ended the week with gains. Discipline always works better than hope.

Today was not a big deal, unless you consider another all-time high by the DJIA and six year highs in the SP 500 to be news. For me, there is nothing of importance with this, besides the fact that it just confirms that this market and economy is currently still very strong--sorry bears, facts say you are wrong AGAIN.

We are starting to enter that time of the year where traders start taking vacations and get prepared for the upcoming Holidays. Normally this means stocks drift to the upside. Last year that did not happen. In 2004 we drifted up on low volume only to break really hard in January. Nobody knows what will happen this year but be cautious of a low volume drift higher. They have a good track record of ending badly.

However, with a backdrop of the PPI, the personal income report, the spending report, the LEI, and 3Q GDP, lower prices would not surprise me. I wouldn't mind them to be honest. The gains this week on the Nasdaq and SP 500 did come on heavier volume and since the last couple of trading weeks are on lower volume a low volume pullback would be welcomed here.

I hope you are having a great weekend and I will see you at Investors Paradise.


New Swing Longs: CACB GMRK VPFG MFG FSLR ISSC

Adding To Longs: NHWK BOBJ PFWD

New Swing Shorts: NONE

**stocks up 25% or more have % gain listed since long position taken**

Longs Up On The Day: JST-131 HMSY-40 INWK-55 CXW-37 IHS-95 ICE-41 STEC-73 IAAC-49 BMA-34 PCCC-37 SVNT-89 SEIC-26 TYL-54 CPA-55 OMTR-79 MA-95 MAMA-83 UAHC-25 SOFO-98 PERY-35 MALL-36 GENT-42 GRRF SRSL NITE JCG ISE FMCN BOT CELG RENT NHWK OTEX TSRA RKT SKX DECK TATTF SQM EVEP LFL TMO BLUD HOS INAP CCO LRCX OPTM NLST OSIR EFUT ULTR EXLS CBF GSIC FTGX NMGC ADBE BOBJ MFB PFWD MDF OPLK BITI OEH WOLF AZK AEZ AYE NWL ACGL AGR NHP MCRS CCBL HURN HNZ CMCSA RAH HCSG PNW BMRN EOC INMD PRCP

Stocks On Radar Screen: GMKT PKTR WFD CRK XTXI NTGR DIGE BRG KSW HTZ IPHS GOLF ENTU SWKS DAR GILT CLWT CBRX DSCM ADL CTCI HTI GE FLIR PBH PHLY NUVA LYTS MAT EMC CTC TLEO MEL VRSN NAVI TMI TPK FRGB WBKC

Selling Some Of My Holdings: LCC IGT BONT CVO ASCA CRT MOS AZS PRFT TSYS MBLX ACHN

Completely Selling My Holdings: TSEM MSTR ROG VOCS SMSC LMRA AXTI

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