Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Stocks Spend Uneventful Day Consolidating Gains.

Stocks pulled back on lower volume, on Wednesday. Stocks started the morning weak, managed a meager rally to mid-day, and then spent the rest of the day trending lower. There was nothing on the economic front or in the news that gave stocks any reason to do anything.

At the close, the Nasdaq led to the downside with a .3% loss, the DJIA fell .2%, the SP 500 fell a tad over .1%, and the SP 600 was the strongest only losing .05%. The good news is that leading stocks outperformed the major indexes, on a weak day. The IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 index both ended flat.

Volume fell on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq, with no catalyst to cause trading to jump. Breadth was negative with decliners barely beating advancers on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

The big winners today was, once again, the Homebuilders. The Philly Homebuilder index rallied 1.6%. The worst group of the day was, once again, the Metals. The Philly Gold & Silver index fell 1.7%.

Today was a nice pullback on lower volume, coming off the last two days of gains that saw volume above today's levels. It is nice to see pullbacks that are calm and collected like the one today. A more severe pullback on heavier trade is the last thing speculators who are net long want to see.

Today was a big yawn but underneath there was, once again, plenty of fireworks. I am starting to get that feeling that we have come too far too fast. However, my feelings don't mean anything but when I get these feelings I start to take notice and compare them to my stocks and the market.

When I do that I start to notice that I have been taking a lot of profits and funneling those gains into new breakouts that are in stocks that are of less quality than the earlier buys. So the fact that laggards are now breaking out is a concern. That along with the recent choppy action in the indexes has me raising my eyebrows.

However, when I look at that and then compare it to what really matters: stocks that I am selling because they are turning out horrible, I can see that things are still very fine out there. Today is yet another day where I am adding a bunch of longs and have NO complete sells via cut losses. What is that? Like three days in a row now? So that tells me that there is still more room to run.

Another reason why there appears to be more room to run is the action in the ever important tell stocks: IPO's. The action in these stocks indicate there is still more upside ahead. I have three new breakouts today that I am taking and saw another three that I passed on. This goes along with all the current new issues I am long and have NO sign of selling pressure on them.

The action in stocks tells me that this rally still has legs. But I am now putting the market on notice. I don't trust big buys at these levels and recommend investors keep new buys small unless EVERYTHING is perfect.

At these levels it would be nice to see more people bearish. But, instead, I see a lot of longs. I am not sure if that is because my readers are smarter than everyone else and do not try to predict tops or if everyone really is long. Since nobody has challenged my intelligence this entire rally and have not weighed in on how much money they are making on the bear side, I can only assume people are long and already invested. So I am not sure how much more we have to go, in the short term.

Longer-term and short-term, however, the trend is still up and that is the right side to be on. I am not going to fight the trend yet! The trend is still long and strong and that is why I am at 272 longs and 0 shorts.

This will change one day but not tonight. Aloha and I will see you at Investors Paradise.

New Swing Longs: PQ LCC CANI PMID WAUW OPTM KALU NLST

Adding To Holdings: MALL IONA BMTI

New Swing Shorts: NONE

**stocks with number are up 25% or more**

Longs Up On The Day: DIVX-33 LWAY-43 STEC-64 JST-81 SVNT-96 AOI-32 HRZ-84 SEIC-26 TTEC-57 HMSY-28 FTEK-49 CXW-39 AOB-113 AMAG-55 IDEV-49 BMRN-31 BUF-25 LQDT IIG GLDN NITE RBN MALL BTJ WGA GIFI CRT RJET WTS ETE OTEX IMA SKX BLUD RKT MVSN CNH NUE PCCC TSG MIKR CMG CCO OPLK ININ TSRA COH AHS ROG CMCSA PRFT IMKTA HOTJ BMTI EFUT EVEP OSIR ULTR HINT AWH SGZ FFH PLB MDF LNUX ALXN CCBL FTGX SCI TZIX WYNN TMO IONA SFL KO AW OEH GENT ECGI

Stocks On The Radar Screen: REDF SUPX IAL NMGC SPPI LOOK NTGR USEY FRD MYS

1 comment:

optionsrock said...

I am a Hawaii boy, grad 1965 from HPA in Kamuela...

Am also big on stocks using options data. Wondering if you want to possibly collaborate a bit in the future? I would like a technicians input on stocks my system pulls up. I have old picks as currently rewriting the software that does the screening etc. Am looking for as mechanical a system as possible... here... a site describing what I'm doing...

http://www.geocities.com/bbj_anchor/ main.html

Thanks...ooops Mahalo, please kokua

Jim