Thursday, July 05, 2012

The Market Awaits the Jobs Reports as AAPL Moves Higher

There was a whole host of news for the market to digest this morning from the ECB rate cut to the Chinese cutting its rates. The ECB did not increase the size of its bailout mechanisms despite the cry for more. We did get somewhat good news with the ADP report showing 176,000 jobs were created in the month of June. Unfortunately, only 4,000 were manufacturing jobs. Jobless claims were better than expected, but failed to ignite any excitement over the employment picture. Another disappointing ISM release this time in the non-manufacturing space showed the service sector grew less than expected. While the NASDAQ was able to get off the lows of the session late day sellers knocked the index to close flat. This market awaits tomorrow’s jobs report and we remain in a buy signal. AAPL was a big part in the success of the NASDAQ Today jumping more than 10 points. News of a smaller iPad certainly helped buyers to jump back into the stock. Volume was above average today, but it was the first time since May 22nd did the stock experience above average volume. The recent move has been in light volume and while the gains have been nice there isn’t anything screaming about institutions buying this stock hand over fist. We won’t argue with the gains, but something to keep an eye on as this market moves forward. The lack of volume on the upside isn’t anything new for discussion, but an interesting development is with the AAII sentiment survey. Bears dropped 9 points, but it is the lack of convinction from either side that is interesting. Bulls and bears are at 33% a piece with 34% of respondents neutral. Traders are going the way of Switzerland and not chosing any sides. Trend followers do not care which side of the market we need to be on we just go there. However, the neutral bias continues to be a common theme with sentiment these days. This entire rally has been on the back of the Federal Reserve Bank coming up with a new bond buying program. Ben Bernanke was all over this question in his last question and answer session saying unemployment was a key indicator for him and the fed. Tomorrow’s unemployment figure, expected to be at 8.2% was the indicator Big Ben Bernanke is keeping an eye on. Tomorrow will be a fun day! Enjoy the weekend.

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