Thursday, November 15, 2012
The Market Remains Oversold and Unable to Rally
A late day push helped the market from closing near the lows of the session. Disappointing bottom callers the market was couldn’t rally and close into positive territory. Volume dropped from Wednesday’s level, but at this point we’ll need to see a heavy volume reversal to signal any sort of bottom. Financials helped the S&P 500 from sliding further as the XLF found support at its 200 day moving average. Despite the help from financials the market could not overcome the pressure put on by sellers. Our sell signal has been a big winner for us and we remain in our sell mode. Tomorrow’s option expiry should bring in volume, but it will be interesting to see how the VIX reacts to options expiring. At this point we have yet to see the VIX jump showing fear has crept into the market. Given we have yet to see capitulation it is hard to fathom we saw any sort of bottom today in the market. It was nice to see financials rally, but it was only one group to rally while the rest of leading stocks took a beating. We could be just around the corner from a bottom, but the real question will be is when we do bottom how deep will it be? Why trend following works very well is you do not need to know how deep or how high a market can go as an investment decision. A disciplined approach is how we are able to take advantage of the markets. Defined entries and exits takes the guess work out of deciding whether or not if you get in or out of a position. Guessing a bottom in the market is just silly and has yet to prove fruitful. The allure of catching a bottom is simply too much for some, but you’ll notice they never make it long term. Stick with a disciplined approach and Big Wave Trading. Have a great weekend and remember to cut those losses short.