Sunday, June 30, 2013

Big Wave Trading Weekend Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

It was a great week the past week on Maui and a good week overall for the stock market. The market did rally the past week but all the action came on below average volume until Friday when EOQ and EOM trading took over. As we know by now, from 1850-2008 this would be considered a bad thing but from 2008-now low volume rallies following heavy volume selloffs have been bullish. So I would not necessarily be too cocksure that the market is failing here at the 50 day moving average, just yet. While we are under a SELL signal, all it would take to switch back to NEUTRAL during the summer months would be a close above the 50 DMA on all three major market indexes (the Russell 2000 is already above the line). If that occurs, the situation will still remain fluid as there are a lot of individual stocks that need some work to clean up their current consolidation patterns. That being the case, we still have a lot of leading stocks making new intermediate term and new highs and plenty of stocks still forming decent consolidation patterns. When you combine this with the weakness in bonds, the higher amount of stocks hitting new lows, and the fact that the Fed is hinting at tapering and there are all sorts of legitimate reasons to remain very NEUTRAL here. And that is exactly where we are heading into this holiday short week. While we are under a SELL signal our personal feelings are extremely NEUTRAL on the current trend. I will have to either see more breakdowns or breakouts to move to either the bearish or bullish camp respectively. As of now, we just have too many crosscurrent and mixed signals to work with. This means new positions will remain small in individual stocks, on the long side, until a BUY signal is triggered or a “perfect” signal is triggered (extremely rare to almost non-existent during a SELL signal) in an individual stock. New positions on the short side remain scant to non-existent during this volatile period. However, as the market ticks down and ends weak each session we will continue to add to our current hedges that are being built in inverse leveraged long and leveraged short ETF positions. Enjoy the upcoming fireworks in the stock market and at your local hot spot. There is a lot of data coming out, around the world, during this short week so I am sure it will not be a boring one. But hell what do I know. Nobody, including myself, knows what tomorrow will bring. The future is absolutely impossible to predict. You can definitely game it and be ready for it but you can never know it. Aloha and have a wonderful holiday week. Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain since Signal – Date of Purchase CAMP long 159% – 4/26/12 RVLT long – 139% – 3/26/13 POWR long – 132% – 12/11/12 CSU long – 93% – 9/4/12 WAGE long – 90% – 1/8/13 FLT long – 82% – 9/6/12 ASTM short – 79% – 7/17/12 HEES long – 75% – 9/4/12 SBGI long – 66% – 3/22/13 GLL long – 60% – 2/14/13 ADUS long – 60% – 4/22/13 INSM long – 59% – 4/19/13 CHUY long – 53% – 1/10/13 TECUA long – 43% – 2/5/13 V long – 42% – 8/31/12 WDC long – 41% – 1/9/13 PFBI long – 28% – 11/19/12 MEI long – 26% – 4/10/13 WST long – 25% – 1/22/13

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