Big Wave Trading incorporates a Mechanical Disciplined Signal Generated System and uses a Market Model system to invest profitably in the stock and futures markets. Big Wave Trading also incorporates a strict risk management system and cuts losses immediately if a new purchase does not work in our favored direction right away.
Showing posts with label ADS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ADS. Show all posts
Sunday, September 08, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
Aloha everyone. The Big Wave Trading model is in a mixed variety of signals, with the Nasdaq currently under a BUY signal, the SP500 and Russell 2000 are under a NEUTRAL signal, and the DJIA is under a SELL signal. It is not too often you will see us under all three signals at once but here we are.
Overall, the market does have the “feel” of a market that is ready to launch higher. The reasoning behind this is our analysis of leading stocks, leading industry groups, speculative stocks, and the technical condition of the overall market. Right now, things look really good for a continuation in prices in the uptrending direction.
We are basically fully invested here, with only a small hedge working in the SDOW. This position will be closed out, obviously, if we switch back to a NEUTRAL or BUY signal in the Dow. We are not fully invested based on what we believe or think the market will do. We are fully invested because so many leading stocks have triggered legitimate buy signals that we have utilized all our capital. Do you know what year it was the last time I was all out of cash to deploy in the market? 2003. So the thinking is that based on past analysis the rest of the year should be solid.
Still, do you think we will not sell EVERYTHING if the market tells us to? You know we will. If the market reverses, sell limits or hit, or our big winners reverse on huge volume, trust me we will not waste any time running to the exits and reversing our positions to the short side via leveraged ETFs. At Big Wave Trading the most important thing is to be prepared for everything. Nothing in life is ever guaranteed. Shock events and black swans show up all the time.
However, we would like to point out a correlation between the current market and that 2003 market that remains my best trading period ever in my life. In 2003 we went into Iraq. Now it is 2013 and we are going into Syria. Is history repeating itself again? Probably not. But it sure is rhyming.
Have a wonderful upcoming week. I wish you all the best. Aloha from Maui.
TOP CURRENT HOLDINGS – PERCENT GAIN – DATE OF SIGNAL
CAMP long – 202% – 4/26/12
WAGE long – 145% – 1/8/13
FLT long – 132% – 9/6/12
POWR long – 123% – 12/11/12
HEES long – 103% – 9/4/12
INSM long – 102% – 4/19/13
MEI long – 92% – 4/10/13
ADUS long – 81% – 4/22/13
LGF long – 54% – 4/19/13
WDC long – 48% – 1/9/13
GMCR long – 46% – 4/23/13
CHUY long – 42% – 1/10/13
TRLA long – 38% – 6/28/13
V long – 37% – 8/31/12
ADS long – 37% – 12/11/12
OCN long – 37% – 5/8/13
DDD long – 35% – 4/30/13
CCF long – 34% – 6/28/13
WST long – 34% – 1/22/13
LOCK long – 33% – 5/20/13
BEAV long – 31% – 3/5/13
Sunday, August 04, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Market Model remains under a BUY signal with zero pressure weighing on it. With the indexes hitting all-time highs and leading stocks leading the way higher, everything is aligned for further potential price appreciation in all asset classes.
Stocks continue to trend higher and while it would have been very nice to see the market consolidate gains this summer allowing the 200 day moving average to catch up with price it is not in the cards. Still, there is no reason to complain that stocks are continuing to move higher as we are well positioned here. Still, it would be nice to see stocks consolidate these gains and get that 200 day moving average closer to price. With the market so extended from this line, making new investments here is a very risky proposition. If you are not already long, it is going to be very hard to play catch up.
However, playing catch up has indeed been very possible as earnings season is allowing plenty of opportunities to play catch up with leading stocks producing some nice gains following earnings and after those earnings. The buyable gap ups have worked very well the past two weeks. The best play, for our intraday chat room members, by far, has been buying calls or straddling/strangling stocks with strong EPS/sales growth that are heavily shorted. Recent straddles in FB and QCOR has made one or our members very wealthy and with earnings season still in full swing there should be other opportunities in the upcoming couple of weeks.
If you are not playing the calls, straddles, or strangles and are not buying the buyable gap ups, it has been a rough go for EOD trading signals. Recent signals on the long side have not performed as well the past two weeks as I would like to see in an uptrending tape. However, most signals are not of the high quality standard that previous signals were due to the fact that this market has been well extended past its upper regression line and 200 day moving average for a while now. This is why recent signals have been weak and why we have kept them small relative to more recent signals.
Still, it is a strong tape and many more signals are sure to present themselves as we move along. As long as the trend trends higher, there is no reason to top call this QE tape. Set your buy stops in leading stocks and get long at the pivot points, straddle the heavily shorted leading stocks, or buy the buyable gap ups. These trades have been doing very well in this most recent move higher. Buying stocks on an EOD basis following a powerful breakout is still not seeing the follow through that we became accustomed to from 1996-2008. So keep that in mind as if we continue to move higher from here.
While a nice consolidation allowing the 200 DMA would be nice to see it is what it is and this trend is strong. Don’t fight the tape and whatever you do NEVER top call a strong market. One day, this market will go climatic or parabolic, leading stocks will too, and lower highs and lower lows will be set in leading stocks in leading industries. That is when you need to be on the lookout for a top. Until then, ride the trend which is your friend higher.
Have a great rest of your weekend and I wish you the best during the upcoming week. Aloha from a very beautiful west side of Maui. Aloha!!!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain since Signal – Signal Date
CAMP long – 178% – 4/26/12
POWR long – 149% – 12/11/12
RVLT long – 133% – 3/26/13
FLT long – 121% – 9/6/12
WAGE long – 95% – 1/8/13
HEES long – 94% – 9/4/12
CSU long – 88% – 9/4/12
ADUS long – 74% – 4/22/13
CHUY long – 57% – 1/10/13
SBGI long – 54% – 3/22/13
TECUA long – 49% – 2/5/13
WDC long – 48% – 1/9/13
INSM long – 48% – 4/19/13
V long – 43% – 8/31/12
LGF long – 42% – 4/19/13
TRLA long – 42% – 6/28/13
GLL long – 40% – 2/14/13
ADS long – 40% – 12/11/12
MEI long – 38% – 4/10/13
OCN long – 28% – 5/8/13
DDD long – 25% – 4/30/13
Saturday, July 27, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading portfolio remains under a BUY signal with only a minor amount of pressure on the indexes following the weak price action on Tuesday and Wednesday in the overall market. Besides that there is no pressure in our model as leading stocks, speculative stocks, and the overall market continue to trend higher in lockstep.
With this being the case, it does not make much sense to drone on and on about the minute details of the trading action the past week. It was a very successful week in terms of playing straddles/strangles before earnings on a few stocks like FB, BIDU, and TRIP and buyable gap ups remain the best way to return alpha in this low volume uptrending market.
Overall, it was a decent week with not much to dissect or psycho-analyze. There is no need to waste any more of your valuable weekend time. Enjoy the rest of your weekend and I wish you the best during the upcoming week. Aloha!!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain since Signal Date – Date of Signal
RVLT long – 191% – 3/26/13
CAMP long – 167% – 4/26/12
POWR long – 143% – 12/11/12
FLT long – 103% – 9/6/12
CSU long – 91% – 9/4/12
HEES long – 91% – 9/4/12
WAGE long – 90% – 1/8/13
SBGI long – 64% – 3/22/13
ADUS long – 64% – 4/22/13
INSM long – 50% – 4/19/13
V long – 50% – 8/31/12
TECUA long – 47% – 2/5/13
WDC long – 42% – 1/9/13
MEI long – 41% – 4/10/13
LGF long – 38% – 4/19/13
CHUY long – 37% – 1/10/13
GLL long – 34% – 2/14/13
GMCR long – 34% – 4/23/13
ADS long – 32% – 12/11/12
PFBI long – 31% – 11/19/12
WST long – 30% – 1/22/13
BEAV long – 28% – 3/5/13
CCF long – 26% – 6/28/13
DDD long – 25% – 4/30/13
Saturday, July 20, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Model remains under a BUY signal with very little data weighing against its current signal. The stock market climbed higher, across the board, this week and despite the lower volume there remains very little to zero selling pressure in the current tape.
Friday’s intraday action confirms that above analysis as a morning gap lower found support early on the SP-500 and DJIA and mid-day for the Nasdaq. This kind of action, following a gap lower, is very constructive and says a lot about the strength in this market considering how extended the major averages are from their respective 200 day moving averages.
We are not in the business of attempting to call tops at Big Wave Trading. We simply move like water with the market. As the market’s trend flows upward, we will ride that wave accordingly. When the shift comes, we will be quick to hedge our positions and sell off securities that violate trailing cut loss levels or key moving averages. Despite the strong market and our success this year, we have no interest in trying to limit the gains by trying to anticipate a turn in the market here.
Therefore, there is nothing to do here, currently, but ride the trend higher until it does turn. When we see another day like 5/22 we will start a hedge and then operate around that hedge according to the price action in the market. Right now, we have a lot of momentum inherent in this market and based on past historical strength like this, we expect more bases to be formed in the coming months and a resolution to the upside. However, we are not betting on this information and only using it as a possible guide to the upcoming rest of the year. If the market begins a selloff, starts making lower highs and lower lows, with leading stocks breaking down hard, we will be very quick to sell out our long positions and move to the short side.
However, in this tape, betting on the short side has continuously been a losing proposition and not one we are interested in entertaining as long as the fed’s liquidity injections via POMO/ZIRP/QE continues. One day the uptrend will end and when it does the short side will be extremely profitable to trend traders. For now, though, the trend is up and I will be more than happy to ride it much higher if it does have much higher to go before the inevitable sell off happens. I would not mind at all if this market went parabolic before climaxing and reversing lower. It would make for a much more profitable venture for our current long positions and give us a better base to begin our short side work on.
Right now, that is all forward thinking and planning. The reality of today is a market that is hitting new highs on low volume with no sellers above. To bet against a continuation of this trend would be to make a major gamble against history. One day we will not hit new highs. Until that day happens, I do not advise fighting this tape. I know a lot of traders that decided to do this on 5/22. I got a lot of messages and emails telling me that 5/22 was the top. How do you think these “traders” feel now? Based on my near 20 years of doing this for a living, I can tell you almost for sure that they more-than-likely still believe they are right. Too bad the stock market doesn’t care about what they believe.
Either you want to be right or you want to make money. Which is it? I can tell you which one we focus on at Big Wave Trading. I hope you are choosing correctly. If not sooner or later your bottom line results will let you know if you chose correctly.
Have a great rest of your weekend and I wish you all the best during this upcoming week. Aloha from the gorgeous island of Maui where all of us that live here are 100% grateful to call this our home.
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain Since Purchase – Date of Signal
RVLT long – 196% – 3/26/13
CAMP long – 167% – 4/26/12
POWR long – 150% – 12/11/12
CSU long – 104% – 9/4/12
HEES long – 98% – 9/4/12
FLT long – 95% – 9/6/12
WAGE long – 86% – 1/8/13
ADUS long – 66% – 4/22/13
SBGI long – 63% – 3/22/13
INSM long – 61% – 4/19/13
WDC long – 59% – 1/9/13
TECUA long – 56% – 2/5/13
V long – 48% – 8/31/12
CHUY long – 46% – 1/10/13
MEI long – 43% – 4/10/13
GLL long – 42% – 2/14/13
LGF long – 37% – 4/19/13
PFBI long – 31% – 7/19/12
GMCR long – 31% – 4/23/13
WST long – 31% – 1/22/13
ADS long – 30% – 12/11/12
Sunday, July 14, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading portfolio is currently under a BUY mode across the board, with the Nasdaq fully switching to a BUY signal on the 9th with the SP-500 and DJIA following on the 11th. These indexes now join the Russell 2000 which was placed under a BUY signal last Friday. The Russell 2000 is leading the current model switch and was able to build on the gains nicely the past week. Every index performed well this past week. It was nothing short of extremely impressive.
What makes it even more impressive is that the rally in the overall market is on fumes. That goes for many recent breakouts in high priced highly liquid CANSLIM quality securities. Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of leading stocks breaking out on volume. However, there have been too many TSLA, SPWR, PCLN, GOOG, AMZN, MCD type moves for my personal liking. At the same time, while I may not like it, it doesn’t matter. Those that are focusing on price action alone in leading stocks are enjoying their gains as long as they are buying at the exact pivot points in their technical consolidations. For those that can not watch the action all day, I will remind you that you can use buy stops to buy a stock as soon as it breaks out to new price highs.
Even with the overall low volume, the rally is still impressive. Many stocks are moving higher on volume and many others are setting up in price consolidation patterns with solid accumulation/distribution patterns. I am sure that even if the market pulls back here, knowing that the Fed is in full-on QE/ZIRP/POMO mode, support should be found in the overall market. This hypothesis is based on the current technical patterns remaining as they are and in turn developing into even more bullish technical patterns in the upcoming weeks. If individual stock price patterns falter, this assumption on price action will be nullified. Still, the trend with POMO/QE/ZIRP is very clear. Pullbacks are to be bought and stocks can not sell off more than 10%. That will definitely change one day and this will definitely lead a lot of people that are greedy into the poorhouse but until then you simply can not fight the overwhelming trend.
Calling tops has been killer to traders the past five years and yet I still see constantly on stock twits and facebook. It was not too long ago on 5/22 that so many new traders/investors were confident this market had top. Now these same traders find themselves underinvested and/or not invested at all. This is the purpose of the market. It is there to fool most of the people most of the time. Looks like they were fooled again. This is why in times like this, if you do not have a system, and invest on emotions, you are going to have a bad time. Emotions are a killer in the stock market. They can only hurt returns over the long run. You must learn to eliminate them, if you are going to learn how to hold stocks like the stocks you see listed below for the big long-term gains. The big money will always be in the sitting and in this market sitting has never been harder. Trust me. I don’t even come close to seeing the gains I saw in my personal accounts from 1998-2008. On top of that, stocks simply do not move like they used to. Compare the performances below to some of my past big winners and you will see times have changed.
One day they will go back to normal. However, until that day happens, it is what it is and price action is all that matters. The trend is your friend until it bends at the end. Make sure that you don’t show up late to the trend and ride it lower when it bends and all the smart money is exiting. The Nasdaq has been up 12 of the past 13 stock market sessions yet I see many traders looking to get heavily long here. Seems a tad late to me. However, what do I know compared to what the market knows? The exact same thing you know. Nothing. The market discounts all. Price action is all that is real. Continue to follow price and ignore volume. In this QE world it is leaving many traders underinvested. You must learn to discount it.
Have a great rest of your weekend and a wonderful upcoming week. Make sure you obey your systems, especially your stops. Always cut your losses short. Never ever ride a losing position and never ever add to a losing position. Especially in a melt-up tape like we have now.
PS: Can you tell I just got done reading my third Jesse Livermore book of the summer? It is an annual ritual. I recommend it both for new and experienced traders. Once again, have a great weekend. Aloha from Maui!!
Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain Since Signal – Date Of Signal
CAMP long – 181% – 4/26/12
RVLT long – 165% – 3/26/13
POWR long – 150% – 12/11/12
CSU long – 107% – 9/4/12
HEES long – 95% – 9/4/12
FLT long – 93% – 9/6/12
WAGE long – 90% – 1/8/13
ADUS long – 86% – 4/22/13
SBGI long – 71% – 3/22/13
CHUY long – 69% – 1/10/13
WDC long – 54% – 1/9/13
TECUA long – 49% – 2/5/13
V long – 48% – 8/31/12
GLL long – 47% – 2/14/13
INSM long – 44% – 4/19/13
MEI long – 40% – 4/10/13
LGF long – 39% – 4/19/13
ADS long – 31% – 12/11/12
WST long – 30% – 1/22/13
DDD long – 27% – 4/30/13
BEAV long – 26% – 3/5/13
Sunday, May 26, 2013
Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings
The Big Wave Trading Portfolio remains under a BUY condition, despite the harsh sell off this past Wednesday. During such a strong uptrend with the averages constantly riding the 5, 10, 20, and 50 day moving averages higher, it will take more than a one day sell off event to switch our model. The only time a one day sell off would switch the model from BUY to NEUTRAL, in such a strong uptrend, would be if that sell off resulted in a loss of the 10, 20, and/or 50 day moving average on extremely strong volume.
Since that was not the case on Wednesday, we remain under a BUY condition. The price action that has followed this session has been very constructive in all major market indexes and leading stocks appear to have weathered the sell off very well so far. For now, this is strong confirmation that the uptrend is still solid. We do understand that this could easily change very shortly if further selling does appear. However, skilled market operators understand that you can not make money on “what-if” scenarios. So for now, the trend remains up and we will continue to hunt for new long positions as signals arise.
The intraday price action of Thursday and Friday was very constructive following the sell off, with the market opening lower and closing higher near the highs of the day on both sessions. This action, along with the lack of stocks breaking down in my short scans, is indicative of a market that wants to still move higher here. Another positive sign, for those long in the uptrend, is that very few holdings gave partial sell or full sell signals the past three market sessions. In fact, on Wednesday there was only one full sell, following that big sell off. So overall there remains very few real factual based reasons to turn fully bearish here. Have we started to hedge our positions? Yes. But only in a very minor manner.
That being said, if we do reverse lower here, we are ready to increase our hedges and will take action on all sell signals that will generate on a pullback in the overall market. While we are indeed ready to increase our hedges, get short, and pair down our winners, we will wait for the market to tell us to do this. Right now, we want to be like water in a river. Smoothly flowing with the market in whatever direction it decides to go.
Have a continued wonderful long weekend everyone. I wish you the best in the upcoming week. Aloha!
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